Information Group (part of an investment holding company FINAM) held a conference Russian banks: lack of capital and other features. The participants expect that this year the percentage of overdue debts to Russia will grow significantly above the official forecasts. The need to build substantial reserves would result in many small banks will have to withdraw from the market.
The key negative factor - is the growth of macro-economic risks: the decline in final demand, the fall in economic activity, thereby decreasing profits and salaries of individuals. This leads to an increase in non-payment of (the impossibility to perform the obligations of borrowers for loans, the growth of delay andthe need for an impairment loss), and the need to more carefully analyze potential new borrowers, to reflect the risks in the interest rate. And do not forget about the shock of refinancing, which the system experienced a fall of the past and the beginning of the year when long-term resources on the market, it was almost impossible to attract and overnight rate exceeded 25%, - outlined the main risks of the Russian banking sector analyst bank Petrocommerce Dmitry Kharlampi.
Analyst Company Arbat Capital - Asset Management Michael Zavaraev predicts that by the end of the year the proportion of bad debts in the loan portfolios of domestic banks could reach 22-24%, which would damage the banking system at the level of 0,5-0,55 trillion. rubles. Similar expectations and the deputy director of rating agency Expert RA Paul Samiev: According to our projections, if the government measures to support the real sector will not work, the problem of debt by the end of the fall of 2009 to reach 20%.
Under the outstanding loans have to build up reserves, which are, in fact, a direct deduction from net profit and, hence, the capital. There is a mandatory standard for bank capital, which is 10% for larger banks, and 11% for small banks . Thus, the sharp rise in bad debts will lead to losses at banks and reduce the level of capital adequacy. As a result, the banking system may need dokapitalizatsiya, that is, the new capital. According to our estimates, Russia's banking system as a whole could easily survive the growing arrears to the level of 10-12%, - told the analyst IK FINAM Konstantin Romanov.
Banks are likely to be faced with the need to create large reserves, and they will be difficult to do without state support. We appreciate the amount of nedosozdannyh reserves for loan losses of 800 billion rubles. Approximately 300 billion, banks can cover with a capital (without violating the norms of the Central Bank). More about 200-300 billion will give the private shareholders. The rest hole (and by the end of the year it can grow), you may have to close the State , - said Mr. Samiev. Similar expectations voiced by Mr. Zavaraev - he believes that the banking system may need to attract additional capital at the level of 0,7-0,8 trillion. rubles
The current economic situation stimulates and certainly accelerate the process of consolidation of banks, which in my opinion, will sanative effect on the industry as a whole - the consolidation of the banking business will allow better use and manage capital, technology, etc. - predicts the managing director for credit of small and medium business Moskommertsbanka Inna Kasianov. Some banks in the end, I think, would be swallowed, and some go bankrupt. Reduce the total number of Russian banks on the basis of the coming 2-3 years, 150-200 on the financial institutions hardly anyone will be able to greatly surprise - predicts Mr. Zavaraev .
Bad debts consolidate thebanking sector
Information Group (part of an investment holding company FINAM) held a conference Russian banks: lack of capital and other features. The participants expect that this year the percentage of overdue debts to Russia will grow significantly above the official forecasts. The need to build substantial reserves would result in many small banks will have to withdraw from the market.
The key negative factor - is the growth of macro-economic risks: the decline in final demand, the fall in economic activity, thereby decreasing profits and salaries of individuals. This leads to an increase in non-payment of (the impossibility to perform the obligations of borrowers for loans, the growth of delay andthe need for an impairment loss), and the need to more carefully analyze potential new borrowers, to reflect the risks in the interest rate. And do not forget about the shock of refinancing, which the system experienced a fall of the past and the beginning of the year when long-term resources on the market, it was almost impossible to attract and overnight rate exceeded 25%, - outlined the main risks of the Russian banking sector analyst bank Petrocommerce Dmitry Kharlampi.
Analyst Company Arbat Capital - Asset Management Michael Zavaraev predicts that by the end of the year the proportion of bad debts in the loan portfolios of domestic banks could reach 22-24%, which would damage the banking system at the level of 0,5-0,55 trillion. rubles. Similar expectations and the deputy director of rating agency Expert RA Paul Samiev: According to our projections, if the government measures to support the real sector will not work, the problem of debt by the end of the fall of 2009 to reach 20%.
Under the outstanding loans have to build up reserves, which are, in fact, a direct deduction from net profit and, hence, the capital. There is a mandatory standard for bank capital, which is 10% for larger banks, and 11% for small banks . Thus, the sharp rise in bad debts will lead to losses at banks and reduce the level of capital adequacy. As a result, the banking system may need dokapitalizatsiya, that is, the new capital. According to our estimates, Russia's banking system as a whole could easily survive the growing arrears to the level of 10-12%, - told the analyst IK FINAM Konstantin Romanov.
Banks are likely to be faced with the need to create large reserves, and they will be difficult to do without state support. We appreciate the amount of nedosozdannyh reserves for loan losses of 800 billion rubles. Approximately 300 billion, banks can cover with a capital (without violating the norms of the Central Bank). More about 200-300 billion will give the private shareholders. The rest hole (and by the end of the year it can grow), you may have to close the State , - said Mr. Samiev. Similar expectations voiced by Mr. Zavaraev - he believes that the banking system may need to attract additional capital at the level of 0,7-0,8 trillion. rubles
The current economic situation stimulates and certainly accelerate the process of consolidation of banks, which in my opinion, will sanative effect on the industry as a whole - the consolidation of the banking business will allow better use and manage capital, technology, etc. - predicts the managing director for credit of small and medium business Moskommertsbanka Inna Kasianov. Some banks in the end, I think, would be swallowed, and some go bankrupt. Reduce the total number of Russian banks on the basis of the coming 2-3 years, 150-200 on the financial institutions hardly anyone will be able to greatly surprise - predicts Mr. Zavaraev .
Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holdings FINAM.
Deposit for private individuals - Market Review
Loans to legal entities - Market Review
Loans to individuals - Market Review
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
The immediate support for the MICEX index may serve as the level of 935 points
Speculative recommendation on the day of Polyus Gold shares, Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank, VTB
FSFR: From 1 July 2009 terminated the licenses 41 non-state pension fund
European stock markets may decline on Monday after Asian markets
Overview of the oil market for 03.07.09