Investment Company Finam increased its forecast value of the RTS index at the end of 2009 to 4% - up to 1200 points. The reasons for the revision of the value of this indicator were continuing high level of oil prices, favorable conditions of the money market of Russia and the expected reduction in the rate of drop in GDP in the fourth quarter.
Russia market in September added up to 17% by updating the maximum this year. For nine months the RTS index rose by 100%, significantly ahead of market indices in both developed and developing countries. After rallying since the beginning of Russia's market does not look cheap: according to our estimates, the weighted average P /E 2010 - No. 12 (market consensus forecast - 10.1), - said the strategist Finam Vladimir Sergievsky. He said the discount on the multiplier P /E to the closest counterpart - the Brazilian market - 25%: Russia's market is valued only slightly cheaper than in Europe, which, in our opinion, due to significantly better prospects for business growth for Russian companies, at least in the future the next few years.
Factor liquidity continues to be dominant on the equity market, said Mr. Sergievsky: Throughout the third quarter, the share of investment funds focused on Russia, steadily increased from month to month. In particular, in September was recorded inflows $ 175 million, accounting for more than 15% of total inflows to emerging markets. Nevertheless, analysts say Finam, can not discount the risks of worsening macroeconomic conditions. An increasing number of signals is in favor of the fact that China has become the locomotive for the world economy in the first half, may disappoint investors. Significantly slow economic recovery and is capable of reducing government support measures.
In the base scenario Finam index value of the RTS at the end of 2009 improved by 4% to 1,200 points. Forecast is based on the increase in oil consumption and high investment demand for hydrocarbons, which will keep prices for black gold at $ 70 per barrel mark Brent. Uncertainty about the ability of the U.S. economy quickly to cope with the consequences of the crisis will help preserve the risks of global inflation, and hence the attractiveness of investment in Russia's assets, - says Mr. Sergievsky. - As a result, we expect stabilization of sovereign risk assessment of Russia near current levels.
As part of the baseline scenario, analysts of investment company also forecast a significant reduction in the rate of decline of the economy in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower base last three months of 2008. In addition, the conjuncture of the money market in the country remains favorable: a surplus balance of trade and opposition to strengthening the ruble by CB stimulate the growth of money supply, - said Mr. Sergievsky.
Analysts Finam recommend to investors in the coming months to maintain positions in the oil and gas sector, the most sensitive to the flow of investments. The reorganization of the sector fixed-line should be a catalyst for the growth of interest in the industry, power generation segment can also look better than the market against the background of the approval of new investment programs and control parameters. In addition, the growth of investor appetite for risk will contribute to a gradual shift of attention toward the mid and small capitalization. Among the second tier stocks still remain a number of interesting investment opportunities that could bring a three-digit rate of return in 1-2 years. We have, first of all, we select Mostotrest, Vyksunskij MH, Asha and Vyborg N - says Mr. Sergievsky .
Finam raised the forecast of the RTS index at the end of 2009
Investment Company Finam increased its forecast value of the RTS index at the end of 2009 to 4% - up to 1200 points. The reasons for the revision of the value of this indicator were continuing high level of oil prices, favorable conditions of the money market of Russia and the expected reduction in the rate of drop in GDP in the fourth quarter.
Russia market in September added up to 17% by updating the maximum this year. For nine months the RTS index rose by 100%, significantly ahead of market indices in both developed and developing countries. After rallying since the beginning of Russia's market does not look cheap: according to our estimates, the weighted average P /E 2010 - No. 12 (market consensus forecast - 10.1), - said the strategist Finam Vladimir Sergievsky. He said the discount on the multiplier P /E to the closest counterpart - the Brazilian market - 25%: Russia's market is valued only slightly cheaper than in Europe, which, in our opinion, due to significantly better prospects for business growth for Russian companies, at least in the future the next few years.
Factor liquidity continues to be dominant on the equity market, said Mr. Sergievsky: Throughout the third quarter, the share of investment funds focused on Russia, steadily increased from month to month. In particular, in September was recorded inflows $ 175 million, accounting for more than 15% of total inflows to emerging markets. Nevertheless, analysts say Finam, can not discount the risks of worsening macroeconomic conditions. An increasing number of signals is in favor of the fact that China has become the locomotive for the world economy in the first half, may disappoint investors. Significantly slow economic recovery and is capable of reducing government support measures.
In the base scenario Finam index value of the RTS at the end of 2009 improved by 4% to 1,200 points. Forecast is based on the increase in oil consumption and high investment demand for hydrocarbons, which will keep prices for black gold at $ 70 per barrel mark Brent. Uncertainty about the ability of the U.S. economy quickly to cope with the consequences of the crisis will help preserve the risks of global inflation, and hence the attractiveness of investment in Russia's assets, - says Mr. Sergievsky. - As a result, we expect stabilization of sovereign risk assessment of Russia near current levels.
As part of the baseline scenario, analysts of investment company also forecast a significant reduction in the rate of decline of the economy in the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower base last three months of 2008. In addition, the conjuncture of the money market in the country remains favorable: a surplus balance of trade and opposition to strengthening the ruble by CB stimulate the growth of money supply, - said Mr. Sergievsky.
Analysts Finam recommend to investors in the coming months to maintain positions in the oil and gas sector, the most sensitive to the flow of investments. The reorganization of the sector fixed-line should be a catalyst for the growth of interest in the industry, power generation segment can also look better than the market against the background of the approval of new investment programs and control parameters. In addition, the growth of investor appetite for risk will contribute to a gradual shift of attention toward the mid and small capitalization. Among the second tier stocks still remain a number of interesting investment opportunities that could bring a three-digit rate of return in 1-2 years. We have, first of all, we select Mostotrest, Vyksunskij MH, Asha and Vyborg N - says Mr. Sergievsky .
Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holding Finam.
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