IMF: Despite emerging signs of economic improvement in Russia, the recovery will occur only gradually in 2010

The economic policy pursued by Russia in the pre period, had a significant impact on the coverage and effectiveness of official response to adverse external conditions. This is stated in the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund, issued on the basis of annual consultations with Russia.

On the one hand, Russia carried out a reasonable policy of taxation of their oil wealth and savings of these revenues in the years of favorable conditions provided an opportunity for a major fiscal stimulus. On the other hand, the pre-policy controls the ruble, coupled with the lack of domestic sources of long-term financing facilitated the involvement of excessive borrowing in foreign currencies, as high oil prices have stimulated the interest of investors to acquire Russian assets and led to a situation in which Russian banks and corporations were vulnerable to outflows of capital entering the country - note the Director of the IMF.

In these circumstances, they consider the stabilization of the banking sector, the urgent but complex task facing the Russian decision makers. Directors encouraged the authorities to apply a more proactive and coordinated approach to solving problems in the banking sector. They believe that abstinence from the use of coercive measures made it difficult to assess accurately the quality of assets and credit risk.

In the area of fiscal policy, most directors have expressed doubts about the values and reversal of the current program to stimulate the economy. Directors expressed concern that the massive stimulus may acquire a permanent character, that after overcoming the slowdown in the economy will lead to a spiral of excessive increase in effective rate and reduce competitiveness. They recommended to reduce the size of fiscal stimulus and refocus its structure on samoobratimye measures.

A few Directors were concerned that the process of accession to the WTO, it appears that reduces the rate.

Regarding future prospects, the Director stressed that once the current crisis will end, policy priorities should be directed at achieving the medium-and long-term goals. These include: Redirecting fiscal policy toachieve the deficit excluding oil and its binding to the target, which is sustainable in the long-term reorientation of monetary policy to contain inflation, supported by a flexible exchange rate and the activation of structural reforms.

Despite the recent preliminary indications of possible improvement in the economic situation, it is expected that recovery will happen only gradually in 2010. Surrounding prospects depends crucially on the sustained recovery of world economy and higher prices for stock items, as well as from sound domestic policies in the coming period, - said the IMF.
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