Information Group (part of an investment holding company FINAM) held a conference on The Chemical Industry: the reliance on domestic demand. The participants noted that as a result of the crisis, all segments of thechemical industry were more or less evenly. Some better than others feels refining, and may recover faster than the rest of fertilizer producers.
Analysts believe that the state will not significantly increase its presence in the chemical industry, for example, by creating a new public corporation. It should be noted that goskorporatsii formed either by the companies, representing a strong personal interest to a higher authority (eg, oil) or in industries that without such a reform could die because of low profitability, but those that are deemed politically totally unacceptable (engineering, especially the aviation and shipbuilding). The chemical industry also does not apply to those, or to others , - said Head of the Corporate Analysis Bank Petrocommerce Eugene Dorofeyev.
His supplemented analyst IC Veles Capital Dmitri Lyutyagin: The only debate so far is part of producers of fertilizers, but the creation of goskorporatsii, first of all, will not serve for the development sector and the addition of momentum to it (because fertilizers, and so are developing very fast) and for enrichment close to the power structures of corporations (many charm operating profitability exceeding 60%).
As a result of reducing the global demand affected all segments of the chemical industry. However, the impact of the crisis on various companies is significantly different. For example, the producers of nitrogen fertilizers increased even upload their capacity compared to the year 2008, but the price of nitrogen fertilizers fell by more than two times. Russian producers of potash fertilizers on the contrary kept prices (until recently time), but sharply reduced the volume of production , - told the analyst IK FINAM Denis Arkhipov.
Some suffered less than other companies in the processing of oil. Clearly, the crisis has affected the oil, mainly in the part that was still on paper and in the plans by the shift of all nenachatyh program to build new facilities ECPs for a year or two. For the current year, prior to the crisis of pledged investment in refineries in Russia was estimated at 5-5,8 billion dollars, with the beginning of the crisis, I think we will see that figure decrease to 3,3-3,8 billion dollars in 2009 - says Mr. Lyutyagin.
A further negative for the Russian chemical market in favor of its internal problems. In particular, Mr. Dorofeyev said: For Russia, a significant factor are also often the suspension of production and exports of NPK by individual companies because of the price of conflict with the monopoly supplier of raw materials. Also an important factor in the future will be the expected rapid increase in gas prices - a key raw material for producers of nitrogen fertilizer, but so far it does not happen.
However, according to Mr. Arkhipova, the situation in the individual segments are gradually being restored. As long as I see promising fertilizer manufacturers, as a nitrogen or potassium. I think that when in fact 1,5 season break of fertilizers in agriculture, producing crops once again return to the fertilizer market, which in principle is already happening now . The current established price for fertilizer production, fully loaded, fully-sector companies to provide decent performance, - said Mr. Lyutyagin. Mr. Dorofeyev is not so optimistic. He believes that the rise in the price of fertilizer is possible only against the background of a substantial strengthening of commodity prices, primarily in the oil market. Apparently, in the perspective of 1-2 years will not happen, - noted the expert.
The chemical industry would cost without goskorporatsy
Information Group (part of an investment holding company FINAM) held a conference on The Chemical Industry: the reliance on domestic demand. The participants noted that as a result of the crisis, all segments of thechemical industry were more or less evenly. Some better than others feels refining, and may recover faster than the rest of fertilizer producers.
Analysts believe that the state will not significantly increase its presence in the chemical industry, for example, by creating a new public corporation. It should be noted that goskorporatsii formed either by the companies, representing a strong personal interest to a higher authority (eg, oil) or in industries that without such a reform could die because of low profitability, but those that are deemed politically totally unacceptable (engineering, especially the aviation and shipbuilding). The chemical industry also does not apply to those, or to others , - said Head of the Corporate Analysis Bank Petrocommerce Eugene Dorofeyev.
His supplemented analyst IC Veles Capital Dmitri Lyutyagin: The only debate so far is part of producers of fertilizers, but the creation of goskorporatsii, first of all, will not serve for the development sector and the addition of momentum to it (because fertilizers, and so are developing very fast) and for enrichment close to the power structures of corporations (many charm operating profitability exceeding 60%).
As a result of reducing the global demand affected all segments of the chemical industry. However, the impact of the crisis on various companies is significantly different. For example, the producers of nitrogen fertilizers increased even upload their capacity compared to the year 2008, but the price of nitrogen fertilizers fell by more than two times. Russian producers of potash fertilizers on the contrary kept prices (until recently time), but sharply reduced the volume of production , - told the analyst IK FINAM Denis Arkhipov.
Some suffered less than other companies in the processing of oil. Clearly, the crisis has affected the oil, mainly in the part that was still on paper and in the plans by the shift of all nenachatyh program to build new facilities ECPs for a year or two. For the current year, prior to the crisis of pledged investment in refineries in Russia was estimated at 5-5,8 billion dollars, with the beginning of the crisis, I think we will see that figure decrease to 3,3-3,8 billion dollars in 2009 - says Mr. Lyutyagin.
A further negative for the Russian chemical market in favor of its internal problems. In particular, Mr. Dorofeyev said: For Russia, a significant factor are also often the suspension of production and exports of NPK by individual companies because of the price of conflict with the monopoly supplier of raw materials. Also an important factor in the future will be the expected rapid increase in gas prices - a key raw material for producers of nitrogen fertilizer, but so far it does not happen.
However, according to Mr. Arkhipova, the situation in the individual segments are gradually being restored. As long as I see promising fertilizer manufacturers, as a nitrogen or potassium. I think that when in fact 1,5 season break of fertilizers in agriculture, producing crops once again return to the fertilizer market, which in principle is already happening now . The current established price for fertilizer production, fully loaded, fully-sector companies to provide decent performance, - said Mr. Lyutyagin. Mr. Dorofeyev is not so optimistic. He believes that the rise in the price of fertilizer is possible only against the background of a substantial strengthening of commodity prices, primarily in the oil market. Apparently, in the perspective of 1-2 years will not happen, - noted the expert.
Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holdings FINAM.
Hryvna strengthens
Return of deposits, with particular cynicism
Shares VTB have a strong driver for growth in the coming weeks - the definition of placing additional issue price
In the event that positive GDP data for the U.S. to begin the transfer of funds from the protected assets in shares of oil and metallurgical sectors
Now morning jump up completely reverse, and the decline continues: VTB Bank (-0.52%), Sberbank (-1.74%), Gazprom (-1.88%)
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
The growth of the stock market supported the message that the auction of seven gosobligatsy United States has been extremely successful
Overview of the oil market for 30.07.09
Asia: Indexes face down due to good reporting