Information Unit (part of the investment holding company “Finam”) held a conference on “The American Economy: Obama goes to work?”. Its participants predict that in 2010 the dollar will rise against the euro. Currency of Russia, by contrast, has all chances to keep their positions, completing the year in the range of 31-32 rubles per dollar.
analysts acknowledge that the U.S. economy emerged serious imbalances. “To resolve the situation with the budget deficit almost nothing is being done. The proposed savings of $ 250 billion over 10 years seems insignificant compared with the expected budget deficit only in this fiscal year of $ 1.35 trillion.” - Recalled the director of analysis of world markets Finam Michael Aristakesyan. Head of Research Department of the Treasury “Savings Bank” Nikolai Kashcheev drew attention to the decline in the competitiveness of the U.S. economy compared to China: “How can the Americans, burdened sotsobyazatelstvami and their standard of living and compete with hundreds of millions of undernourished, but disciplined comrades?”.
However, even further accumulation of problems does not create a significant risk the collapse of the dollar. “Defaulted U.S. under the current system, in which the dollar is the world”s reserve currency, is impossible. And the debt can grow for decades - until it is demand, and the country is able to maintain. And this is a problem not only U.S. but also many other developed countries, and it is a consequence of recent years” pictures a world in which developed countries are increasing their consumption of goods from developing countries who are saving the proceeds by investing them in bonds of developed countries “, - considers the head of analytical department of the Criminal Code” Kapital “Sergei Karyhalin.
Experts say that now in its appeal of the euro is losing the dollar. “This year, the U.S. currency will look better than the euro, which has already planted a” big pig “some of the countries of the so-called group of PIGS (Portugal, Greece, Iceland, Spain). Moreover, in recent times, the acronym is increasingly found in an extended version PIIGS (plus Italy). We should not forget about the problems of the new EU members from Eastern Europe, which also threaten the financial stability of the EU and further aggravate the structural defects in the monetary union. I do not exclude that this year the euro /dollar at the moment would be to trade in the range 1, 25-1,30 “- the analyst FC” infinitesimal “Veronica Chekina.
similar prognosis and a chief economist UK “Finam Management” by Alexander Aspen: “The U.S. dollar in the medium term, I think, continue to” win back “factor of the global economy is relatively high inflation and investment risks. On the other hand, this process will contain, first of all, the existence of U.S. payment and investment imbalances. Perhaps the end of the EUR /USD and make $ 1,2-1,3 per euro, respectively. “At the moment it would be better prepared for some strengthening of the dollar against the euro”, - confirms Mr. Karyhalin.
However, the global strengthening of the dollar is unlikely to affect its value in the Russian Rubles. “The determining factor will be the dynamics of commodity prices. However, we can not exclude that the government throw ruble extra surprise in the form of a new devaluation. At present, our benchmark to a pair of the ruble /dollar is 31,7-32,7″, - said Ms. Chekina. “Our estimates show that the average ruble /dollar this year will be about 31 rubles to the dollar. And so at the price of oil - $ 65. That is, we are the external risks to the ruble did not celebrate,” -, the head of macroeconomic analysis bank Petrocommerce Natalia Surikov.
The dollar will look better euro
Information Unit (part of the investment holding company “Finam”) held a conference on “The American Economy: Obama goes to work?”. Its participants predict that in 2010 the dollar will rise against the euro. Currency of Russia, by contrast, has all chances to keep their positions, completing the year in the range of 31-32 rubles per dollar.
analysts acknowledge that the U.S. economy emerged serious imbalances. “To resolve the situation with the budget deficit almost nothing is being done. The proposed savings of $ 250 billion over 10 years seems insignificant compared with the expected budget deficit only in this fiscal year of $ 1.35 trillion.” - Recalled the director of analysis of world markets Finam Michael Aristakesyan. Head of Research Department of the Treasury “Savings Bank” Nikolai Kashcheev drew attention to the decline in the competitiveness of the U.S. economy compared to China: “How can the Americans, burdened sotsobyazatelstvami and their standard of living and compete with hundreds of millions of undernourished, but disciplined comrades?”.
However, even further accumulation of problems does not create a significant risk the collapse of the dollar. “Defaulted U.S. under the current system, in which the dollar is the world”s reserve currency, is impossible. And the debt can grow for decades - until it is demand, and the country is able to maintain. And this is a problem not only U.S. but also many other developed countries, and it is a consequence of recent years” pictures a world in which developed countries are increasing their consumption of goods from developing countries who are saving the proceeds by investing them in bonds of developed countries “, - considers the head of analytical department of the Criminal Code” Kapital “Sergei Karyhalin.
Experts say that now in its appeal of the euro is losing the dollar. “This year, the U.S. currency will look better than the euro, which has already planted a” big pig “some of the countries of the so-called group of PIGS (Portugal, Greece, Iceland, Spain). Moreover, in recent times, the acronym is increasingly found in an extended version PIIGS (plus Italy). We should not forget about the problems of the new EU members from Eastern Europe, which also threaten the financial stability of the EU and further aggravate the structural defects in the monetary union. I do not exclude that this year the euro /dollar at the moment would be to trade in the range 1, 25-1,30 “- the analyst FC” infinitesimal “Veronica Chekina.
similar prognosis and a chief economist UK “Finam Management” by Alexander Aspen: “The U.S. dollar in the medium term, I think, continue to” win back “factor of the global economy is relatively high inflation and investment risks. On the other hand, this process will contain, first of all, the existence of U.S. payment and investment imbalances. Perhaps the end of the EUR /USD and make $ 1,2-1,3 per euro, respectively. “At the moment it would be better prepared for some strengthening of the dollar against the euro”, - confirms Mr. Karyhalin.
However, the global strengthening of the dollar is unlikely to affect its value in the Russian Rubles. “The determining factor will be the dynamics of commodity prices. However, we can not exclude that the government throw ruble extra surprise in the form of a new devaluation. At present, our benchmark to a pair of the ruble /dollar is 31,7-32,7″, - said Ms. Chekina. “Our estimates show that the average ruble /dollar this year will be about 31 rubles to the dollar. And so at the price of oil - $ 65. That is, we are the external risks to the ruble did not celebrate,” -, the head of macroeconomic analysis bank Petrocommerce Natalia Surikov.
Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holding Finam.
U.S. Federal Reserve kept the target range of the base rate 0-0,25% pa
Davos accents
officials and businessmen will try to heal the planet …
On Russia”s market will be observed until the “corridor” speakers in the rcdeange of 1370-1410 points on the MICEX
The rebound on top of Russia”s stock market continued, the MICEX index has won back 50% of losses
In 2010 - 2012 years “LUKOIL” will save more than 9 billion rubles by selling energy saving program
Vladimir Milovidov: priority for Federal Financial Markets Service is to work on the law on insajde
In the course of the trading session effect on the dynamics of the stock market could have a weekly statistics on the U.S. labor market
Asia: time to “bulls” to take a chance
The development of economic cooperation of former USSR in the past 10 years has slowed