Information Unit (part of the investment holdingcompany Finam) held a conference entitled The devaluation of the ruble: No predictions, concerns remain. Its participants do not expect that until the end of the year the ruble significantly deviate from current levels. But next year could be difficult for Russia's currency - a substantial devaluation will not, but the dollar is able to strengthen their position.
The Fall of the American currency - a consequence of anti-crisis measures in the United States. The weakening of the dollar - the objective factor, associated primarily with the state of the U.S. budget deficits can not be financed by developing countries to infinity. While the Obama administration does not demonstrate clear intentions to change fiscal policy, the dollar will remain under pressure - the director of analytical Department of Bank of Moscow Kirill Tremasov.
With this assessment of the situation and agrees analyst Sovlink Olga Belenkaya, which, however, does not consider the growth of the ruble is fundamentally sound: The current strengthening of the ruble is momentary, caused by an excess of cheap money in the world, a record low cost of borrowing in dollars ( Libor rate on short-term borrowing in the U.S. is lower now than in the yen) and the weakening of the dollar relative to commodities and currencies. The dollar is becoming the most attractive currency for the Kerry-trade, ensuring the flow of capital, including, in ruble instruments. This increases risks of significant cooling of markets after the Fed begins to tighten monetary policy and withdraw excess liquidity from the market. CB is a trend, just smoothing fluctuations.
By the end of the dollar is unlikely to deviate significantly from current levels. Fluctuations in either direction is unlikely to exceed 1,5-2 ruble. I think that in the coming weeks or months, the ruble's appreciation of Russia to the USD may continue, and possibly rate USD /RUB in the near future will test grades 28-29 rubles. For USD, - said the chief economist UK Finam Management Alexander Osin. In terms of monetary indicators (ratio of the Central Bank reserves and money supply), the current fair rate - about 31.5 rubles /$, and by the end of the year, we estimate that it will remain above the mark of 30 rubles /$. , - the analyst of Macroeconomics IB WHALE Finans Dmitry Field.
But next year may not be as successful for the ruble. In early 2010 the trend of this currency pair, in my estimation, has yet to return to its fundamentally justified level of the objectives for the next year of around 33-36 USD. For the U.S. dollar, - predicts Mr. Osin. The next year, as signs of tightening monetary policy, the world's major central banks, expect a return value of the ruble to a more fundamentally caused by the values - supports his Ms. Belenkaya. It assumes that in 2010 the rate will fluctuate in the range of 30-33 rubles. /$.
experts believe that Russia is unlikely to deliberate devaluation of the ruble. His course will be determined by the situation on the commodity markets. Considerations about the devaluation to reduce the budget deficit, and support for commodity exports seem to me entirely justified, but at current oil prices a specific need for this. And as a major devaluation - a painful step for most people, and unpopular, politically it is not so easy to decide when there is no obvious reason, - says Ms. Belenky. The probability of a global wave of competitive devaluations, in my opinion, is insignificant. This double-edged sword for countries pursuing a monetary policy. Because even if you can improve the trade balance, there is no guarantee that losses related to capital account, do not override this gain in foreign Trade , - adds an independent analyst Michael pillars.
The dollar will rise in 2010
Information Unit (part of the investment holdingcompany Finam) held a conference entitled The devaluation of the ruble: No predictions, concerns remain. Its participants do not expect that until the end of the year the ruble significantly deviate from current levels. But next year could be difficult for Russia's currency - a substantial devaluation will not, but the dollar is able to strengthen their position.
The Fall of the American currency - a consequence of anti-crisis measures in the United States. The weakening of the dollar - the objective factor, associated primarily with the state of the U.S. budget deficits can not be financed by developing countries to infinity. While the Obama administration does not demonstrate clear intentions to change fiscal policy, the dollar will remain under pressure - the director of analytical Department of Bank of Moscow Kirill Tremasov.
With this assessment of the situation and agrees analyst Sovlink Olga Belenkaya, which, however, does not consider the growth of the ruble is fundamentally sound: The current strengthening of the ruble is momentary, caused by an excess of cheap money in the world, a record low cost of borrowing in dollars ( Libor rate on short-term borrowing in the U.S. is lower now than in the yen) and the weakening of the dollar relative to commodities and currencies. The dollar is becoming the most attractive currency for the Kerry-trade, ensuring the flow of capital, including, in ruble instruments. This increases risks of significant cooling of markets after the Fed begins to tighten monetary policy and withdraw excess liquidity from the market. CB is a trend, just smoothing fluctuations.
By the end of the dollar is unlikely to deviate significantly from current levels. Fluctuations in either direction is unlikely to exceed 1,5-2 ruble. I think that in the coming weeks or months, the ruble's appreciation of Russia to the USD may continue, and possibly rate USD /RUB in the near future will test grades 28-29 rubles. For USD, - said the chief economist UK Finam Management Alexander Osin. In terms of monetary indicators (ratio of the Central Bank reserves and money supply), the current fair rate - about 31.5 rubles /$, and by the end of the year, we estimate that it will remain above the mark of 30 rubles /$. , - the analyst of Macroeconomics IB WHALE Finans Dmitry Field.
But next year may not be as successful for the ruble. In early 2010 the trend of this currency pair, in my estimation, has yet to return to its fundamentally justified level of the objectives for the next year of around 33-36 USD. For the U.S. dollar, - predicts Mr. Osin. The next year, as signs of tightening monetary policy, the world's major central banks, expect a return value of the ruble to a more fundamentally caused by the values - supports his Ms. Belenkaya. It assumes that in 2010 the rate will fluctuate in the range of 30-33 rubles. /$.
experts believe that Russia is unlikely to deliberate devaluation of the ruble. His course will be determined by the situation on the commodity markets. Considerations about the devaluation to reduce the budget deficit, and support for commodity exports seem to me entirely justified, but at current oil prices a specific need for this. And as a major devaluation - a painful step for most people, and unpopular, politically it is not so easy to decide when there is no obvious reason, - says Ms. Belenky. The probability of a global wave of competitive devaluations, in my opinion, is insignificant. This double-edged sword for countries pursuing a monetary policy. Because even if you can improve the trade balance, there is no guarantee that losses related to capital account, do not override this gain in foreign Trade , - adds an independent analyst Michael pillars.
Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holding Finam.
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