British economists predict Russia's ruble fall to 10% by March 2010

Western economists expect that by March 2010, Russia's ruble exchange rate will collapse by 10%. With appropriate forecasts made by a British research firm Capital Economics, reports Bloomberg. According to analysts, the fall of the ruble would be due to the fact that the government can not cope with budget deficits, and the Central Bank of Russia, is under political pressure, will be forced to maintain the flow of liquidity and increase the money supply.

We're going on a rope. If the Kremlin will continue pounding away on the line, he will receive only the unsecured debts of the banking sector and a larger deficit - quoted specialist Capital Economics in Developing Countries Europe Neil Shearing radio Business FM.

experts believe that pumping up the economy of Russia in the ruble against the record since 1998, the budget deficit from the contingency fund will drop below the national currency of Russia today mark.

The biggest danger for Russia's economy - yet another drop in oil prices, - said Shearing. As noted by Bloomberg, in a time of high oil prices, Russia has managed to gain the fourth largest in the world gold reserves, which have helped to protect in the midst of the credit crisis in 2007, but the dependence of the ruble from energy prices will not go away.

Shearing also expects Russia's GDP in 2009 decreased by 9%. Note that the Economic Development Ministry forecasts the decline in GDP in the current year to 8,5%.

Previously a number of foreign analysts said that in 2010 is expected to not fall of the ruble and the U.S. dollar. But Russia's government officials said that the devaluation of the ruble in the autumn is not threatened. However, this view is not shared by all analysts, some experts believe that the devaluation of the ruble is inevitable.

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