probability that Ukraine will declare the default, since the beginning of this year fell almost two-fold. The statement was made by the head of department analysts Galt Taggart Securities Vladimir Nesterenko.
According to him, this show quotes annual Ukrainian CDS (Credit Default Swap, to swap defaulted on the loan - Ed.) fallen in the first half by 46%.
In general
V. Nesterenko estimated the probability that Ukraine will declare default autumn as extremely low. According to him, in August-September peak actually have to repay the state and quasi-public ( Ukreximbank Naftogaz Ukraine ) debt - about 1.25 billion U.S. Corporate Liquidations (mainly banking) of Eurobonds and syndicated debt assessment analysis, in this period is, excluding restructuring and direct loans, about 750 million U.S.
Even if we assume that Нацбанку will fully fund these payments, as well as the purchase of imported gas in the third quarter (about $ 2 billion) of its gold reserves (27 billion dollars) more than enough - said Vladimir Nesterenko. Besides issuing the third tranche is expected to IMF credit (3.3 billion dollars).
Certainly, a significant element of uncertainty is the amount of repayment of direct loans this year. According to our estimates, banks may need about $ 4 billion, other sectors - about 10 billion dollars but if the banks want to support the NBU, then of the situation, firstly, on the whole stable, and secondly, to rescue the real sector - the work of the real sector - in contrast to the banking system, whose stability is crucial for the economy, and the National Bank of Ukraine is obliged to provide it - said analyst Galt Taggart Securities.
According to him, still need to take into account that the NBU may require about 2 billion dollars to maintain the exchange rate. Thus, the issue price - about $ 10 billion (8 billion in foreign debt, 2 billion to maintain the exchange rate), with a resource of 30 billion dollars (27 billion of reserves, 3.3 billion from the IMF) - said V. Nesterenko. It is therefore unlikely to default, - he added.
At 16.00 Moscow time the volume of trades in the market for government securities MICEX was 20.52 billion rubles
The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 0.67% and is at the level of 4598.94 point
Moderately good news on Thursday contributed to the improvement of the background situation in the commodity markets
In the oil futures markets brands Light Sweet and Brent were in the positive area
Ministry of Finance assesses the external debt of the bank Nadra of 870 million U.S.
Yatseniuk: The Ukrainian banking system should be ready to fluctuations in currency exchange rates fall
Strengthening measures to stimulate the growth of credit in the domestic market of Russia will help to reduce the rate
Euro continues to strive for the lower boundary of the corridor 1.3750-1.43
The capitalization of companies in developing countries will grow faster than in developed
Expert: The probability of default announcement by Ukraine since the beginning of the year fell almost 2 times
probability that Ukraine will declare the default, since the beginning of this year fell almost two-fold. The statement was made by the head of department analysts Galt Taggart Securities Vladimir Nesterenko.
According to him, this show quotes annual Ukrainian CDS (Credit Default Swap, to swap defaulted on the loan - Ed.) fallen in the first half by 46%.
In general
V. Nesterenko estimated the probability that Ukraine will declare default autumn as extremely low. According to him, in August-September peak actually have to repay the state and quasi-public ( Ukreximbank Naftogaz Ukraine ) debt - about 1.25 billion U.S. Corporate Liquidations (mainly banking) of Eurobonds and syndicated debt assessment analysis, in this period is, excluding restructuring and direct loans, about 750 million U.S.
Even if we assume that Нацбанку will fully fund these payments, as well as the purchase of imported gas in the third quarter (about $ 2 billion) of its gold reserves (27 billion dollars) more than enough - said Vladimir Nesterenko. Besides issuing the third tranche is expected to IMF credit (3.3 billion dollars).
Certainly, a significant element of uncertainty is the amount of repayment of direct loans this year. According to our estimates, banks may need about $ 4 billion, other sectors - about 10 billion dollars but if the banks want to support the NBU, then of the situation, firstly, on the whole stable, and secondly, to rescue the real sector - the work of the real sector - in contrast to the banking system, whose stability is crucial for the economy, and the National Bank of Ukraine is obliged to provide it - said analyst Galt Taggart Securities.
According to him, still need to take into account that the NBU may require about 2 billion dollars to maintain the exchange rate. Thus, the issue price - about $ 10 billion (8 billion in foreign debt, 2 billion to maintain the exchange rate), with a resource of 30 billion dollars (27 billion of reserves, 3.3 billion from the IMF) - said V. Nesterenko. It is therefore unlikely to default, - he added.
At 16.00 Moscow time the volume of trades in the market for government securities MICEX was 20.52 billion rubles
The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 0.67% and is at the level of 4598.94 point
Moderately good news on Thursday contributed to the improvement of the background situation in the commodity markets
In the oil futures markets brands Light Sweet and Brent were in the positive area
Ministry of Finance assesses the external debt of the bank Nadra of 870 million U.S.
Yatseniuk: The Ukrainian banking system should be ready to fluctuations in currency exchange rates fall
Strengthening measures to stimulate the growth of credit in the domestic market of Russia will help to reduce the rate
Euro continues to strive for the lower boundary of the corridor 1.3750-1.43
The capitalization of companies in developing countries will grow faster than in developed