Forecasts of analysts: After a negative open trades today can be expected to continue to fight for the 1400 points mark on MICEX

 
  
 
 
  25.01.10 10:12 ;
 

last trading day last week, Russia”s stock market held a “red zone”. In the fall of the leaders of the banking sector were the paper: ordinary shares of Sberbank, lost 3%, “prefecture” - 3,6%, VTB dropped to 4.04%. Shares of oil and gas sector declined in market trends: papers Gazprom completed trades in the red at 0.67%, Rosneft - on 3,38%, Surgutneftegaz lost about 2%, LUKoil - 1,41%. Demand on the background of the general pessimism of paper used by telecom and Severstal: Uralsvyazinform (3.46%), Rostelecom (2,16%), “Severstal” (1,73 %).

At the end of the day the RTS index dropped to a mark of 1489.46 points, losing 2.67%. MICEX Index finished trading in the “minus” at 1.78% to 1410.38 points. During the evening session on FORTS the March futures on the RTS index sank to a mark of 147,685 points, losing 1.5%.

As a result of ADR trading prices for Russia”s actions amounted to (in one receipt): VTB (Eng) - 4,72, Gazprom (Eng) - 24, “LUKOIL” (Eng) - 55,5, “Norilsk Nickel” (Ang) - 15,95, Rosneft (Eng) - 8,24, Surgutneftegaz (Eng) - 8,78, MTS (USA) - 48.48, Rostelecom (USA) - 27.35, Vimpelcom (USA) - 19,03, Mechel Steel (USA) - 22.49.

On Friday, U.S. stock indexes fell more than 2%: as a result of trades Dow-Jones index fell by 2,09%, SP - on 2,21%, Nasdaq - on 2,67%. Asian sites are traded today in a moderate minus: Japanese Nikkei index fell by 0.74%, China”s Shanghai Composite index lost to date, 0,35%.

The March futures for Brent crude stood at $ 73.16 per barrel, Light - $ 74.7 per barrel. Currency pair euro /dollar in the morning on the Forex stands at 1.416.

Thus, this morning”s background is moderately negative for Russia”s stock market, and, according to experts, the opening can expect a smooth decrease of quotations across the spectrum of liquid securities. “Russia is publicly traded on the stock market can be expected to break down at 1,0-1,5%, due to negative external background. Charges option 1400 points on the MICEX index, which crosses some important technical levels, the first attempt to overcome the failed and because today we can expect a continuation of the struggle for it, which means that speculation on the increase in the first hours of trading, since the opening will be lower “- Maxim believes Chernega, an analyst with the department of client operations, the IG” Octane “.

“Barack Obama”s plan to tighten regulation of the financial sector, as well as the largest U1000.S. banks, rumors of an impending ban on” short sales “in the U.S. - all this creates an atmosphere of extreme nervousness in world stock markets. And while the declining stock market indices still fit into the framework correction on the growing trend, we can not rule out that the downward movement will continue this week. Since the MICEX index can close the gap beginning of the year, down to the level of 1360-1370 points. Such a scenario is especially likely if oil prices will beat the mark down to $ 70 per Brent barrel “, - says Alexey Vyazovskii, an analyst with” Kalita-Finans “.

key event of the week will be a meeting of the FOMC. “Guidelines for the regular meeting of the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee January 26-27, perhaps tacitly acknowledges that there is little that can be done to ensure a more rapid recovery of the U.S. economy. The Fed is likely to execute its plan and complete the purchase of mortgage securities at the end March curtail emergency lending program in February and will maintain interest rates at zero in the coming months. Politics of American monetary authorities is the main intrigue of this year, and traditionally would have a significant impact on commodity markets and emerging markets. tightening of monetary policy the Fed - the main factor contributing to the Bears This year, however, from our point of view of “bulls” has not yet said its last word, “- commented Alexander Razuvaev, head of analytical department of IR” Gallio Capital.

From the statistics, which, as experts note, can have a significant impact on the outcome of today”s trading, it is worth noting only the sales data on U.S. residential real estate (18-00 Moscow time). Continues season records world”s largest companies, today the financial results will provide AK Steel, Apple, Fiat, Halliburton, Philips and Texas Instruments.


  

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Following Friday the value of the MICEX Index reached 1410.38 points, which is 1.78% below the previous day”s close
Non-resident investor in no hurry to withdraw funds from Russian stock exchanges - this will keep selling securities on negative external background
Publicly traded on Russia”s stock market can be expected to break down to 1-1,5%

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