International Monetary Fund (IMF) has officially confirmed the forecast of GDP growth in Ukraine in 2010 at 2.7%. Projections for the current year remain unchanged: the decline of GDP by 14% with inflation at 16,3%. These data are contained in a survey released yesterday by the state of the global economy, prepared by the Fund. The IMF has improved the outlook for the world economy: if released in July, the forecast decline in world GDP in the current year is expected to reach 1,4%, but now this forecast is reduced to 1,1%. And in 2010 the world economy will show growth of 3.1% (expected 2.5%).
As noted in the report, the global economy is growing thanks to the strong recovery in Asian countries, as well as stabilization or moderate recovery in other regions. In particular, despite the crisis, in 2009 China's GDP will grow by 8,5% (at 1 PP is higher than expected) and India - by 5,4%. The IMF has also recorded much smaller than expected decline in the economy of Brazil (-0.7%, 0.6 PP) and the eurozone countries (-2.7%, 0.6 PP). Thus in 2010, economic growth will show not only the countries of the eurozone (0.3%), but the United States (1.3%) and Japan (1.7%).
Yet even this positive economic dynamics do not allow the IMF to improve forecasts for Ukraine. Recall, the forecast decline of the Ukrainian economy by 14% was first unveiled in August, following the allocation of Ukraine, the third tranche of the loan. Then the weather was just deteriorated to 6 PP His review can be expected on the basis of work in Ukraine of a new IMF mission trip is scheduled for the second half of October - the eve of the planned allocation of the fourth tranche.
expected that the stabilization of the Ukrainian economy will begin next year - the IMF predicts GDP growth of 2,7%. This projection differs only slightly from the government - the draft state budget for 2010 was calculated on the basis of the forecast GDP growth of 3,7%. However, not all countries of Eastern Europe in 2010 will show growth of the economy - the economic downturn expected to continue in Bulgaria, Hungary, Montenegro and the Baltic countries. And in 2011 it is expected that the pace of Ukraine's economic growth accelerated to 5,8%, which is above average for the countries of Central Europe (4%) and CIS (5.3%).
According to experts, to achieve such economic growth will Ukraine due to the effect rebound from the bottom. After such a deep economic recession recovery in global demand for Ukrainian exports will demonstrate high rates of GDP growth, - notes the analyst of Troika Dialog Ukraine Irina Piontkovskaya. The effect of low base of comparison will allow Ukraine to even a slight improvement to demonstrate high rates of economic growth - agrees director of economic programs of the Center. Razumkov Basil Yurchishin.
According to Ms. Piontkovsky, restoration of the Ukrainian economy will begin in the II half of 2009, so next year's GDP growth will be moderate. In turn, such high rates of economic growth should allow the Ukrainian economy by the end of 2010 to reach pre-crisis level, - said the expert. Recall a similar prediction recently made a Minister of Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn.
Yuri Panchenko
During the day the stock market in Russia is not ruled out a powerful correctional movement down
Among the main victims today are likely to be stocks of financial and metallurgical sectors
External background negative for Russia's stock market, closed reduction America, Asia traded in red zone
All the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific region on Friday showing the fall of indices
The dollar continues to strengthen against European currencies and the yen loses
Cabinet told how to invite investors
Rally in the Ukrainian stock market on Thursday went counter to the dynamics of the world sites
European stocks lower in Thursday for the second consecutive day on the negative statistics from the U.S.
On the market FORTS the evening clearing most of the contracts were in the green zone
Kommersant: The Ukrainian economy will recover only by mid-2010
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has officially confirmed the forecast of GDP growth in Ukraine in 2010 at 2.7%. Projections for the current year remain unchanged: the decline of GDP by 14% with inflation at 16,3%. These data are contained in a survey released yesterday by the state of the global economy, prepared by the Fund. The IMF has improved the outlook for the world economy: if released in July, the forecast decline in world GDP in the current year is expected to reach 1,4%, but now this forecast is reduced to 1,1%. And in 2010 the world economy will show growth of 3.1% (expected 2.5%).
As noted in the report, the global economy is growing thanks to the strong recovery in Asian countries, as well as stabilization or moderate recovery in other regions. In particular, despite the crisis, in 2009 China's GDP will grow by 8,5% (at 1 PP is higher than expected) and India - by 5,4%. The IMF has also recorded much smaller than expected decline in the economy of Brazil (-0.7%, 0.6 PP) and the eurozone countries (-2.7%, 0.6 PP). Thus in 2010, economic growth will show not only the countries of the eurozone (0.3%), but the United States (1.3%) and Japan (1.7%).
Yet even this positive economic dynamics do not allow the IMF to improve forecasts for Ukraine. Recall, the forecast decline of the Ukrainian economy by 14% was first unveiled in August, following the allocation of Ukraine, the third tranche of the loan. Then the weather was just deteriorated to 6 PP His review can be expected on the basis of work in Ukraine of a new IMF mission trip is scheduled for the second half of October - the eve of the planned allocation of the fourth tranche.
expected that the stabilization of the Ukrainian economy will begin next year - the IMF predicts GDP growth of 2,7%. This projection differs only slightly from the government - the draft state budget for 2010 was calculated on the basis of the forecast GDP growth of 3,7%. However, not all countries of Eastern Europe in 2010 will show growth of the economy - the economic downturn expected to continue in Bulgaria, Hungary, Montenegro and the Baltic countries. And in 2011 it is expected that the pace of Ukraine's economic growth accelerated to 5,8%, which is above average for the countries of Central Europe (4%) and CIS (5.3%).
According to experts, to achieve such economic growth will Ukraine due to the effect rebound from the bottom. After such a deep economic recession recovery in global demand for Ukrainian exports will demonstrate high rates of GDP growth, - notes the analyst of Troika Dialog Ukraine Irina Piontkovskaya. The effect of low base of comparison will allow Ukraine to even a slight improvement to demonstrate high rates of economic growth - agrees director of economic programs of the Center. Razumkov Basil Yurchishin.
According to Ms. Piontkovsky, restoration of the Ukrainian economy will begin in the II half of 2009, so next year's GDP growth will be moderate. In turn, such high rates of economic growth should allow the Ukrainian economy by the end of 2010 to reach pre-crisis level, - said the expert. Recall a similar prediction recently made a Minister of Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn.
Yuri Panchenko
During the day the stock market in Russia is not ruled out a powerful correctional movement down
Among the main victims today are likely to be stocks of financial and metallurgical sectors
External background negative for Russia's stock market, closed reduction America, Asia traded in red zone
All the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific region on Friday showing the fall of indices
The dollar continues to strengthen against European currencies and the yen loses
Cabinet told how to invite investors
Rally in the Ukrainian stock market on Thursday went counter to the dynamics of the world sites
European stocks lower in Thursday for the second consecutive day on the negative statistics from the U.S.
On the market FORTS the evening clearing most of the contracts were in the green zone