Opinion: Passivity NBU can cause problems with liquidity in the second half of 2009

Passivity

National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) can cause problems with liquidity at the banks in the second half of 2009, experts believe the rating agency Credit-Rating.

In the absence of action NBU to improve liquidity of the banking system, providing financial resources for the best rates for credit to the economy, we expect current trends. They are: lack of credit activity, the further deterioration in asset quality, liquidity problems due to reducing the quality of the resource base, limited ability to refinance foreign loans, - reported on the website of the agency.

According to the Credit Rating, in order to stabilize the economic condition of the Ukrainian Government will need to support the productive sectors by increasing the liquidity of banking institutions, as well as curb inflationary processes. In turn, the experts noted the desirability of extending the agency NBU action to curb the devaluation of hryvnia.

The report notes that in the second half of 2009 is expected to increase in hidden unemployment and the growth of arrears in the payment of wages.

At the same time filling the state budget, compared with the first quarter of 2009 will be available at a lower level because the crisis is already fully reflected in the dynamics of income.

At the same time, according to a report in the July-December, the possibility of further reducing the negative balance of payments for goods and services and the preservation of net financial account of the lack of significant inflows of foreign investment against the backdrop of the need for settlement of external obligations.
Experts

agencies also allow deflation to a decline in aggregate demand in the economy, the expected dynamics of the low cost part of consolidated budget, the lack of activity of credit institutions and bank restraining monetary policy NBU.

The report also notes the possibility of a moderate devaluation of hryvnia in the current year, because in addition to economic factors in its impact of a number of other causes, including psychological price expectations and other subjects of foreign exchange market.

In current circumstances, it was possible administrative deter hryvna from significant exchange rate fluctuations in 2009, which may allow to keep the course, with minor deviations in the absence of force majeure, - stressed in the message.

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