The economy has fallen to one-seventh

While Goskomstat still considers the level of incidence of the economy in the past year, the National Bank published its assessment. Following 2009, the basic industries have lost 20,2% of its turnover. The fall in GDP would be smaller - about 14,5%. This happens due to the inhibitory effect of the public sector and due to statistical distortions.

Calculated

National Bank production index of basic industries (IPBO) for December rose from -21.7% to -20.2%. “This represents a definite improvement in the industry, but to a greater extent due to the statistical effect of base” - the study says the regulator.

easy recovery of the economy really happened. After the collapse of dozens of interest rates and industrial production went up a bit.

According to analysts of the National Bank, in December began to feel better themselves by the machine building (7.9% growth per month), car and tractor industry (17%) and chemistry (0.7%) and metallurgy (2.1 %). In addition, 14.7% of the increase showed the structure, working in the electricity, water and gas supply. “In our opinion, to a greater extent this is due to unfavorable weather conditions”, - noted in the NBU.

At the same time much more powerful to improve the index influenced mathematics - the so-called effect of the base. In October IPBO showed -14.3% by October 2008 During the third quarter he was at the level of -15.6% in the second - at -28.1% and in the first quarter - to a record -30.3% .

figure of the first quarter of 2009 closely reflects the degree of collapse of Ukrainian industry - loss of a third speed. In general, the economy also collapsed, although not so much. In the first quarter drop in gross domestic product (GDP) was “only” 20,3%.

But the last few months in 2009 did not give an idea of reality. They have to be compared with November and December 2008, when the collapse has already occurred. Due to this, in November IPBO was only 0,1% in November 2008 and in December - 0,4%. Theoretically, the economy went in the plus for growth. However, in reality it is rather a statistical distortion.

Executive Director of the National Bank of Economic Affairs Igor Shumilo stressed that the decline in GDP would be less than 20,2%. He explained that the direction of motion IPBO and real GDP coincide, but in numerical terms, there may be a difference of several percentage points.

According to him, the country”s economy is generally more clumsy than the leading industry. “In 2004 and 2007. Experienced a strong growth of basic industries, but the budget sector and some others did not grow as much. IPBO faster than GDP. On the contrary, in 2008, basic industries fell heavily, and budget sphere showed almost no reduction. As a result, GDP has fallen not so much as IPBO “- he stressed.

fall on the basis of the National Bank in 2009 is projected at 14.5%, while for the whole year may be reduced by 14%.

There are alternative assessments. “We expect a drop in GDP in 2009, at the level of 13,5%. As ad80result of the consensus forecast (being the magazine Expert Ukraine”), are expected -13.9%, - noted economist Astrum Investment Management Alexei Blinov.

He stressed that in 2010 the consensus forecast assumes GDP growth of 3,5%. “We expect 5%, but this does not mean vigorous growth. Rather, it is possible to speak of a slow recovery due to growth in world markets. Naturally, the first quarter would look better than the rest due to the notorious base effect”, - emphasized Blinov. For comparison: the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts growth of the domestic economy this year by 3%, the United Nations (UN) - only 0,4%.