The Wall Street Journal: Ukraine is heading for default

Ukraine is heading for default. Logically, if Russia will help Ukraine, but Kiev will pay for it as part of its independence, the magazine writes The Wall Street Journal.

austerity - the only way to keep foreign exchange reserves and prevent a new Ukraine hryvnia fall at a time when public debt and private companies exceeds 100% of GDP, the article says. The new president will have to greatly cut the cost of the state budget and to shift to domestic consumer prices for energy. This is a difficult task, even for policies based on national unity, but Ukraine is split into pro-Western and provostochny camp.

Cause harm and the division of executive powers between the president and parliament. The author believes that the only way out - a radical reform of the constitution, which enshrined the supreme authority of Parliament, but this is possible only with the approval of Tymoshenko”s and Yanukovych”s faction, hostile politicians, who certainly will transfer their opposition in parliament. “This, to put it mildly, not ideal conditions for the resumption of the IMF program and prevent financial collapse” - believed by the author. In any event, conjuncture of world prices for raw materials and energy is unfavorable to Ukraine.

In 2010, Ukraine has to pay external debt of $ 37 billion. Apparently, she needed somewhere to raise more than $ 10 billion, and in 2012-2013, when the IMF loan will have to return - 15-24 billion dollars. The only real way to plug the gaps - Russia”s help. Ukrainian elite turn to Moscow only in the extreme case, but judge that the independbb8ence of defaults is even more dangerous than Russia”s help, the author believes. Russia, for its part, is interested in the geopolitical acquisitions and new assets, but also realizes that the financial and economic collapse of Ukraine undermines the stability of the region.

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