From the outset, the dollar has already received his due, came under the influence of an entire combination of factors. Among these positive economic reports from the United States, and expectations for the profits of American companies, and rumors about the withdrawal of oil from countries using the dollar as a settlement currency, and the forthcoming meetings of central banks, of which the RBA has already fulfilled its mission, noting the rising cost of credit. Incidentally, the last of the factors exert serious pressure on the dollar. Here is a game of contrasts: while Australia already enjoys the stabilization of the economy, which allows it to go on raising rates, Federal Reserve until such conditions are only dreams. And the more will move over the prospects the Fed raising interest rates, the weaker the dollar will look at the background of other currencies.
To return to the economic picture, we see that the U.S. services sector gives a rather optimistic signals. In September, activity in the service sector in the U.S. for the first year showed growth against the backdrop of the fact that the recovery of the housing market has spread to the economy as a whole. ISM index in the industry, nearly 90% of the economy, rose to 50.9 against 48.4, exceeding forecasts. Recall that a value of 50 separates growth from contraction. By the way, interestingly enough, the employment component rose, which seriously contradicts the sharp reduction of employment, as reflected in Friday's report. Perhaps, therefore we can expect a sharp recovery of activity in the labor market in October.
Today's calendar of little interest, but it is worth noting that the market is therefore enough food for thought. Published in the British newspaper article, according to which the Gulf states may opt out of using the dollar in payment for oil, has made confusion in the ranks of traders. The article stated that the Gulf countries, along with China, Russia,Japan and France are planning to abandon the settlement for oil supplies in dollars. Now, ostensibly, the group goes to the basket of currencies with the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and the new single currency introduced into circulation especially for this number of countries. The authors cited sources in the banks of Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, claiming that held a secret meeting of the Governing Central Bank of Russia, China, Japan and Brazil, whose goal was to develop a scheme that would give expression to the price of oil in dollars. If the topic will continue to develop or find a confirmation of the real facts, for the U.S. currency this will be a big blow, and will resume the rumors that the dollar's status as a reserve currency is soon to be revised.
EUR
Euro again regained its dominance in the markets, receiving support from strong economic data and comments of officials. Member of the ECB's Weber said he expects further weakening of the dollar in the near future. And the service sector and manufacturing sector grew in September, the euro zone is stronger than previously estimated. Composite index, which characterizes the manufacturing and service sectors euro zone rose in September to 51,1 pkt. against 50,4 pkt. in August and exceeded the preliminary estimate 50,8 pkt. However, a separate report showed that retail sales in 16 countries in the euro zone in August, noted the 15 th month of contraction. Even if there was marked positive. Retail sales decreased by 0,2% against the forecast decline by 0,5%, ie not so bad as expected.
Given that the calendar completely empty, we only need to monitor closely the statements of officials. After the first step of the RBA market with even greater zeal will be looking for hints on a quick transition to the regime of tightening by the ECB. Especially before the meeting the ECB left a few hours.
GBP
Pound behave with restraint, a little strengthened against the dollar (not surprising - in fact had fallen too many negatives). However, even a fairly positive data on the service sector did not help Briton Breaks $ 1.60. Activity in the services sector in Britain in September rose more than expected. Business expectations reached the highest level since September 2007. Activity index of Purchasing Management in the service sector, compiled by CIPS /Markit, reached in September 55,3 pkt. against 54.1 in August. Economists expected the index in the service sector PMI in September was 54,5 pkt.
JPY
Yen continues to strengthen against the dollar, gaining support in the negative mood of traders in the latter. However, with the remaining opponents are much more problematic, given the recent remarks of the new Ministry of Finance of Japan that too much intervention in the JPY still possible.
Today, all attention on Australia. Increasing rates only highlighted the plight of Japan, which still remains the threat of deflation, and authorities still can not find constructive solutions.
All had fallen on the shoulders of the dollar
USD
From the outset, the dollar has already received his due, came under the influence of an entire combination of factors. Among these positive economic reports from the United States, and expectations for the profits of American companies, and rumors about the withdrawal of oil from countries using the dollar as a settlement currency, and the forthcoming meetings of central banks, of which the RBA has already fulfilled its mission, noting the rising cost of credit. Incidentally, the last of the factors exert serious pressure on the dollar. Here is a game of contrasts: while Australia already enjoys the stabilization of the economy, which allows it to go on raising rates, Federal Reserve until such conditions are only dreams. And the more will move over the prospects the Fed raising interest rates, the weaker the dollar will look at the background of other currencies.
To return to the economic picture, we see that the U.S. services sector gives a rather optimistic signals. In September, activity in the service sector in the U.S. for the first year showed growth against the backdrop of the fact that the recovery of the housing market has spread to the economy as a whole. ISM index in the industry, nearly 90% of the economy, rose to 50.9 against 48.4, exceeding forecasts. Recall that a value of 50 separates growth from contraction. By the way, interestingly enough, the employment component rose, which seriously contradicts the sharp reduction of employment, as reflected in Friday's report. Perhaps, therefore we can expect a sharp recovery of activity in the labor market in October.
Today's calendar of little interest, but it is worth noting that the market is therefore enough food for thought. Published in the British newspaper article, according to which the Gulf states may opt out of using the dollar in payment for oil, has made confusion in the ranks of traders. The article stated that the Gulf countries, along with China, Russia,Japan and France are planning to abandon the settlement for oil supplies in dollars. Now, ostensibly, the group goes to the basket of currencies with the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and the new single currency introduced into circulation especially for this number of countries. The authors cited sources in the banks of Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, claiming that held a secret meeting of the Governing Central Bank of Russia, China, Japan and Brazil, whose goal was to develop a scheme that would give expression to the price of oil in dollars. If the topic will continue to develop or find a confirmation of the real facts, for the U.S. currency this will be a big blow, and will resume the rumors that the dollar's status as a reserve currency is soon to be revised.
EUR
Euro again regained its dominance in the markets, receiving support from strong economic data and comments of officials. Member of the ECB's Weber said he expects further weakening of the dollar in the near future. And the service sector and manufacturing sector grew in September, the euro zone is stronger than previously estimated. Composite index, which characterizes the manufacturing and service sectors euro zone rose in September to 51,1 pkt. against 50,4 pkt. in August and exceeded the preliminary estimate 50,8 pkt. However, a separate report showed that retail sales in 16 countries in the euro zone in August, noted the 15 th month of contraction. Even if there was marked positive. Retail sales decreased by 0,2% against the forecast decline by 0,5%, ie not so bad as expected.
Given that the calendar completely empty, we only need to monitor closely the statements of officials. After the first step of the RBA market with even greater zeal will be looking for hints on a quick transition to the regime of tightening by the ECB. Especially before the meeting the ECB left a few hours.
GBP
Pound behave with restraint, a little strengthened against the dollar (not surprising - in fact had fallen too many negatives). However, even a fairly positive data on the service sector did not help Briton Breaks $ 1.60. Activity in the services sector in Britain in September rose more than expected. Business expectations reached the highest level since September 2007. Activity index of Purchasing Management in the service sector, compiled by CIPS /Markit, reached in September 55,3 pkt. against 54.1 in August. Economists expected the index in the service sector PMI in September was 54,5 pkt.
JPY
Yen continues to strengthen against the dollar, gaining support in the negative mood of traders in the latter. However, with the remaining opponents are much more problematic, given the recent remarks of the new Ministry of Finance of Japan that too much intervention in the JPY still possible.
Today, all attention on Australia. Increasing rates only highlighted the plight of Japan, which still remains the threat of deflation, and authorities still can not find constructive solutions.
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