Contrary to expectations on the part of investors to continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis its main European competitors, and this week, the market has almost absolute calm. Only the first day of the week, you can write with confidence in American currency asset. At the auction on Monday in the absence of publications of any major economic indicators for the U.S. currency continued to strengthen its position against its main competitors, which have been the cause of Friday unexpectedly favorable data on the U.S. labor market. Recall that in spite of a reduction of jobs in the 325 thousand people, it was just 247 thousand. In terms of reducing the demand for more high-rate currency euro on Monday fell from the 1.4200 area, where the currency is opened a week to the bottom - the level of 1.4100, the British pound fell more than 2.5 figure and keep only the support of over 1.6450, the Swiss franc down against the U.S. dollar up to 1.0882 (maximum pair USD /CHF this week), while a pair of dollar /Japanese yen has shown a maximum of only a week after opening weekend (97.76), and then all week correlated with the euro and pound, respectively, starting on Monday the movement down.
Tuesday for most currency pairs has been very quiet. Currencies moved within a fairly narrow range and did not seek to demonstrate a new extremes.
As expected, members of the Bank of Japan did not change a key interest rate, and unanimously voted to maintain its level at 0.1%. Bank of Japan left unchanged assessment of the economy in August, saying that economic conditions have ceased to deteriorate due to an increase in exports and production.
At the auction on Wednesday in anticipation of the publication of results of meetings of the operations on the open market the U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) monetary policy of active investors was relatively small.
With the opening of tenders in Europe, the market began to change, because the stock indices started to recover their positions. The American currency has lost its advantage and has been under pressure from its major competitors.
Following the announcement of the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, when it became known that the basic interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%, as well as statements regarding the stabilization of business activity in the country, the U.S. dollar has sharply grown.
However, because the Central Bank has not provided any indication that the possibility of higher interest rates, the direction of trades soon changed again - after a short decline in the U.S. trading session to 1.4122, the euro /dollar again rose above 1.42 figures. The same was made, and the British pound.
So, the bottom of the week on the euro continued to be the level of .1.4100, the pound - 1.6400 (1.6389 at least a pair). The dollar /yen on Wednesday reached its lowest level the week 95.10, then came back above 96.00. USD /CHF after reaching the maximum of the end of the week fell to the level of 1.0740.
On Thursday against the backdrop of unexpectedly positive economic data from Europe, the main competitors are U.S. dollar could further strengthen its position somewhat. So, after the GDP data came out of Germany and France, which is worth noting have been much betterpredictive value, the euro and the pound began to occupy the position of the U.S. dollar. According to the Government of Germany, the country's GDP growth in the second quarter contributed to the domestic public consumption. It is also worth noting that this figure rose for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. With regard to GDP growth of France, it was a pleasant surprise for all market participants. A little later during the European session and the data have been published on changes in the euro area GDP, which also have better predictive value. According to the forecasts of euro area GDP in the second quarter was reduced to 0.5% and fell by only 0.1%. Additional support rivals the dollar and have news from abroad. The volume of retail trade in the United States over the past reporting period fell 0.1%, although originally projected a growth of 0.8%. Against this backdrop, Japanese Yen has been able to strengthen against the U.S. currency to 95.02. Regarding the euro, the euro was able to show up this week at around 1.4326, the pound - 1.6663.
On the last day of the week, exchange rates have continued to follow developments in stock markets. The decline of Chinese stocks, coupled with disappointing economic indicators have reduced the confidence of market participants in the reconstruction of the global economy and reduced the willingness to risk, which in turn led to increased rates of refuge - the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.
According to experts, the GDP of Spain in the 2 nd quarter decreased by 1.0%, while the final index of consumer prices in the euro for July amounted to -0.7% for the month and -0.7% for the year.
indicator from the University of Michigan confidence unexpectedly fell in August to 63.2, while the forecast was 68.1, while the previous value was 66.0.
It should be noted that, at the same time, the optimistic comments of the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens, made in the first half of the day, some investors have raised expectations that the Bank of Australia may raise its main interest rate before the end of the year. That proved enough to push the Australian and New Zealand dollar to new highs this year. Soon, however, these pairs have been under downward pressure, and completely lost its position due to the strengthening of general U.S. dollar, which was used by investors as the main reserve currency. Thus, by the end of trading Friday, a pair of Euro /dollar traded at 1.4200 marks, the pound /dollar was moving near the 1.6550 level, with respect to a pair of dollar /yen, it completed the week with a mark 94.80.
forecast for next week
After one activity that was observed in the foreign exchange market during the last week, this week on the market now is a lull. However, if we take into account the volatilsnot, which could be observed immediately after the announcement of the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on rates, it can be assumed that market participants are not yet a general agreement on withdrawal of the global economy out of recession. FOMC pleased dollar some positive news, but surprises are not presented. Therefore, the market would most likely are still continue to follow the overall dynamics of the movement of stock indexes and oil prices.
Coming week, in terms of output important economic statistics, is not going to be very interesting. Although not without it. Market participants should pay attention to such data for the United States, as the volume of purchases of American securities by foreign investors, the index of producer prices, the data on the housing and the productive sector, and is to pay attention to the statement by the U.S. Federal Reserve chapter of Mr. Bernanke at a conference in Kansas City. Foggy Albion will please investors in the first release of the protocol last meeting the Bank of England on interest rates, as well as the publication of consumer price index and changes in the volume of retail trade. In a series of European news, we would like the following: balance of foreign trade and balance of payments current account balance of the euro area, as well as the index of sentiment in the business environment of the institute ZEW.
Talking about price ranges for the following week is worth noting that if the economic indicators that will be published next week, does not meet the expectations of investors, is likely to trend away from risky assets only intensify. In the case of exit Euro below 1.4100, and 1.6400 pounds following figures, downward movement on these currency pairs can continue, and then pressing the following ranges: euro /dollar - 1,3900-1,4100, the pound /dollar — 1,6100-1,6500. If the European currencies did succeed to beat off an attack by the U.S. dollar, they may refer to the peak reached a week earlier this year.
Analytical review of the Forex market during the week from 10 to 14 August
Contrary to expectations on the part of investors to continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis its main European competitors, and this week, the market has almost absolute calm. Only the first day of the week, you can write with confidence in American currency asset. At the auction on Monday in the absence of publications of any major economic indicators for the U.S. currency continued to strengthen its position against its main competitors, which have been the cause of Friday unexpectedly favorable data on the U.S. labor market. Recall that in spite of a reduction of jobs in the 325 thousand people, it was just 247 thousand. In terms of reducing the demand for more high-rate currency euro on Monday fell from the 1.4200 area, where the currency is opened a week to the bottom - the level of 1.4100, the British pound fell more than 2.5 figure and keep only the support of over 1.6450, the Swiss franc down against the U.S. dollar up to 1.0882 (maximum pair USD /CHF this week), while a pair of dollar /Japanese yen has shown a maximum of only a week after opening weekend (97.76), and then all week correlated with the euro and pound, respectively, starting on Monday the movement down.
Tuesday for most currency pairs has been very quiet. Currencies moved within a fairly narrow range and did not seek to demonstrate a new extremes.
As expected, members of the Bank of Japan did not change a key interest rate, and unanimously voted to maintain its level at 0.1%. Bank of Japan left unchanged assessment of the economy in August, saying that economic conditions have ceased to deteriorate due to an increase in exports and production.
At the auction on Wednesday in anticipation of the publication of results of meetings of the operations on the open market the U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) monetary policy of active investors was relatively small.
With the opening of tenders in Europe, the market began to change, because the stock indices started to recover their positions. The American currency has lost its advantage and has been under pressure from its major competitors.
Following the announcement of the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, when it became known that the basic interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%, as well as statements regarding the stabilization of business activity in the country, the U.S. dollar has sharply grown.
However, because the Central Bank has not provided any indication that the possibility of higher interest rates, the direction of trades soon changed again - after a short decline in the U.S. trading session to 1.4122, the euro /dollar again rose above 1.42 figures. The same was made, and the British pound.
So, the bottom of the week on the euro continued to be the level of .1.4100, the pound - 1.6400 (1.6389 at least a pair). The dollar /yen on Wednesday reached its lowest level the week 95.10, then came back above 96.00. USD /CHF after reaching the maximum of the end of the week fell to the level of 1.0740.
On Thursday against the backdrop of unexpectedly positive economic data from Europe, the main competitors are U.S. dollar could further strengthen its position somewhat. So, after the GDP data came out of Germany and France, which is worth noting have been much betterpredictive value, the euro and the pound began to occupy the position of the U.S. dollar. According to the Government of Germany, the country's GDP growth in the second quarter contributed to the domestic public consumption. It is also worth noting that this figure rose for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. With regard to GDP growth of France, it was a pleasant surprise for all market participants. A little later during the European session and the data have been published on changes in the euro area GDP, which also have better predictive value. According to the forecasts of euro area GDP in the second quarter was reduced to 0.5% and fell by only 0.1%. Additional support rivals the dollar and have news from abroad. The volume of retail trade in the United States over the past reporting period fell 0.1%, although originally projected a growth of 0.8%. Against this backdrop, Japanese Yen has been able to strengthen against the U.S. currency to 95.02. Regarding the euro, the euro was able to show up this week at around 1.4326, the pound - 1.6663.
On the last day of the week, exchange rates have continued to follow developments in stock markets. The decline of Chinese stocks, coupled with disappointing economic indicators have reduced the confidence of market participants in the reconstruction of the global economy and reduced the willingness to risk, which in turn led to increased rates of refuge - the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.
According to experts, the GDP of Spain in the 2 nd quarter decreased by 1.0%, while the final index of consumer prices in the euro for July amounted to -0.7% for the month and -0.7% for the year.
indicator from the University of Michigan confidence unexpectedly fell in August to 63.2, while the forecast was 68.1, while the previous value was 66.0.
It should be noted that, at the same time, the optimistic comments of the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens, made in the first half of the day, some investors have raised expectations that the Bank of Australia may raise its main interest rate before the end of the year. That proved enough to push the Australian and New Zealand dollar to new highs this year. Soon, however, these pairs have been under downward pressure, and completely lost its position due to the strengthening of general U.S. dollar, which was used by investors as the main reserve currency. Thus, by the end of trading Friday, a pair of Euro /dollar traded at 1.4200 marks, the pound /dollar was moving near the 1.6550 level, with respect to a pair of dollar /yen, it completed the week with a mark 94.80.
forecast for next week
After one activity that was observed in the foreign exchange market during the last week, this week on the market now is a lull. However, if we take into account the volatilsnot, which could be observed immediately after the announcement of the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on rates, it can be assumed that market participants are not yet a general agreement on withdrawal of the global economy out of recession. FOMC pleased dollar some positive news, but surprises are not presented. Therefore, the market would most likely are still continue to follow the overall dynamics of the movement of stock indexes and oil prices.
Coming week, in terms of output important economic statistics, is not going to be very interesting. Although not without it. Market participants should pay attention to such data for the United States, as the volume of purchases of American securities by foreign investors, the index of producer prices, the data on the housing and the productive sector, and is to pay attention to the statement by the U.S. Federal Reserve chapter of Mr. Bernanke at a conference in Kansas City. Foggy Albion will please investors in the first release of the protocol last meeting the Bank of England on interest rates, as well as the publication of consumer price index and changes in the volume of retail trade. In a series of European news, we would like the following: balance of foreign trade and balance of payments current account balance of the euro area, as well as the index of sentiment in the business environment of the institute ZEW.
Talking about price ranges for the following week is worth noting that if the economic indicators that will be published next week, does not meet the expectations of investors, is likely to trend away from risky assets only intensify. In the case of exit Euro below 1.4100, and 1.6400 pounds following figures, downward movement on these currency pairs can continue, and then pressing the following ranges: euro /dollar - 1,3900-1,4100, the pound /dollar — 1,6100-1,6500. If the European currencies did succeed to beat off an attack by the U.S. dollar, they may refer to the peak reached a week earlier this year.
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