After a long struggle throughout the last week, the dollar still had to surrender. The last straw were conducted with Chinese fields. Some time an Asian power preferred to remain silent and not to return to talk of a supranational currency, but on Friday, the conspiracy of silence has been interrupted. It would seem that the recent visit of the Minister of Finance of the United States in Beijing has been able to change the mood of the authorities, but in the annual report on financial stability calls for the creation of an alternative to the dollar resumed. Thus, the government Celestial finally we confused their inconsistency, but still had a significant pressure on the dollar. Of course, all it is obvious that as soon any changes would not come, even more so now that China's huge foreign exchange reserves denominated in U.S. assets, they simply can not be translated into other currencies without compromising their own economy.
After all this, economic reports from the United States has not been able to help the dollar, although it made a positive share. Consumer spending in the United States rose in May for the first time in three months against the backdrop of the maximum per year increase in personal income. The increase in purchases at 0.3% followed a zero value in April. Personal incomes rose by 1.4% owing to lower taxes and social payments in the crisis management plan for Obama and the growth of savings in the United States until the 15-year maximum. In addition, a separate report confirmed that the June consumer confidence indicated the fourth month of growth, giving hope that the bottom of a recession has passed. The final consumer sentiment index, compiled by Reuters and the University of Michigan, reached this month, 70.8 PTS., The maximum value from February 2008, against a value of 69 PBC. and 68.7 PTS. in May. Thus, government reports have confirmed that efforts to resuscitate the American economy, help the people make purchases, even in conditions of maximum rate of unemployment over the past 25 years.
This week promises to be even more interesting, especially given the fact that July 4 falls on a Friday, thereby moving one of the most important releases from the United States (Report on the level of employment) on Thursday. In addition, we will see a decision on the rate of the ECB data on U.S. business activity in services and manufacturing, and retail sales. Thus, if all this will lead us to promise positive outlook for the world economy, expected to continue falling dollar at all the same flight from risky assets.
EUR
view of the planned meeting for the current week the ECB should pay particular attention to the comments of the official representatives. For example, Stark said on Friday that the ECB can not continue to stimulate the economy indefinitely. The statement, of course, the obvious - Central sleep and see when it will again turn to the aggressive policy tightening, and may have thought, thousands of options, as would be the most painless exit from this situation as soon as economic indicators.
Among economic reports on Friday, we learned that the GDP of France in the 1 quarter of this year decreased by 1.2% compared to last quarter of 2008, according to final results. Quarterly GDP at 1.2% was the worst since a record decline in spring 1968, when the French economy is stopped due to strikes in May and the winter of 1974, when a shock in the oil market impact on the economy as a whole. Consumer confidence in France has improved slightly in June, as people became more optimistic about their financial situation and living standards, while fears of rising unemployment, are preserved. But the German consumer prices rose by 0.4% in June. According to the average forecast of analysts had expected growth of both indices at 0.3%. Thus, we see that the deflationary fears may still move away to second place, thanks to renewed increases in energy prices. Today, we received only a report on the eurozone economic sentiment, which, according to earlier reports from France and Germany, can be quite positive. There is, of course, this will have any impact on currency markets, which will be busy preparing for the more important releases week.
GBP
pound again recovered from the fall, although their development has not веется such a force and pressure. On Friday, Bank of England published a report that there were fears of huge losses incurred by British banks, which makes the domestic economy is very vulnerable. It would be sad it is not sounded, but all efforts to encourage the financial sector and the huge costs incurred by the government, has not yet been given and may no longer yield the results that are expected to power. Nevertheless, ekonom0cheskie reports continue to indicate that the bottom in the housing market has not yet been reached. Prices for housing in the UK fell slightly in May. According to the Land Cadastre Service, they declined to 0.2% m /m and 15.9% y /y. May data Halifax and Nationwide have shown that the decline in housing prices has stopped, but the official data of land cadastre contradict this, suggesting that the pace of monthly decline decreased, but it has not stopped.
Strong economic calendar this week includes the final GDP for 1 quarter, data on business activity in manufacturing and services. Recall that in last month's PMI services crossed key mark of 50 points, saying that the industry has moved into an area of development. If the trend is confirmed and at this time. This may provide strong support for pound. Today, however, pay attention to data on mortgage lending: the growing number of approved applications to instill the hope that the financial sector is not all lost.
JPY
Jena in the morning do not manifest a particular desire to move in any direction, as the markets have not yet decided on the theme of the day. As reported today by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, in May retail sales in Japan fell 2.8% y /y. Rate of decline in May, has not changed against a revised 2.8% rate in April, but slowed down as compared to -3.8% in March and -5.7% in February. Thus, we see that the rate of decline has slowed, but the fact that we do not see positive indicators, said that people still prefer to save than spend. Meanwhile, a separate report, all gave the same hope: to increase its industrial production for the third month in succession, as companies are replenishing stocks and the economy seem to begin to stabilize.
China's split personality
USD
After a long struggle throughout the last week, the dollar still had to surrender. The last straw were conducted with Chinese fields. Some time an Asian power preferred to remain silent and not to return to talk of a supranational currency, but on Friday, the conspiracy of silence has been interrupted. It would seem that the recent visit of the Minister of Finance of the United States in Beijing has been able to change the mood of the authorities, but in the annual report on financial stability calls for the creation of an alternative to the dollar resumed. Thus, the government Celestial finally we confused their inconsistency, but still had a significant pressure on the dollar. Of course, all it is obvious that as soon any changes would not come, even more so now that China's huge foreign exchange reserves denominated in U.S. assets, they simply can not be translated into other currencies without compromising their own economy.
After all this, economic reports from the United States has not been able to help the dollar, although it made a positive share. Consumer spending in the United States rose in May for the first time in three months against the backdrop of the maximum per year increase in personal income. The increase in purchases at 0.3% followed a zero value in April. Personal incomes rose by 1.4% owing to lower taxes and social payments in the crisis management plan for Obama and the growth of savings in the United States until the 15-year maximum. In addition, a separate report confirmed that the June consumer confidence indicated the fourth month of growth, giving hope that the bottom of a recession has passed. The final consumer sentiment index, compiled by Reuters and the University of Michigan, reached this month, 70.8 PTS., The maximum value from February 2008, against a value of 69 PBC. and 68.7 PTS. in May. Thus, government reports have confirmed that efforts to resuscitate the American economy, help the people make purchases, even in conditions of maximum rate of unemployment over the past 25 years.
This week promises to be even more interesting, especially given the fact that July 4 falls on a Friday, thereby moving one of the most important releases from the United States (Report on the level of employment) on Thursday. In addition, we will see a decision on the rate of the ECB data on U.S. business activity in services and manufacturing, and retail sales. Thus, if all this will lead us to promise positive outlook for the world economy, expected to continue falling dollar at all the same flight from risky assets.
EUR
view of the planned meeting for the current week the ECB should pay particular attention to the comments of the official representatives. For example, Stark said on Friday that the ECB can not continue to stimulate the economy indefinitely. The statement, of course, the obvious - Central sleep and see when it will again turn to the aggressive policy tightening, and may have thought, thousands of options, as would be the most painless exit from this situation as soon as economic indicators.
Among economic reports on Friday, we learned that the GDP of France in the 1 quarter of this year decreased by 1.2% compared to last quarter of 2008, according to final results. Quarterly GDP at 1.2% was the worst since a record decline in spring 1968, when the French economy is stopped due to strikes in May and the winter of 1974, when a shock in the oil market impact on the economy as a whole. Consumer confidence in France has improved slightly in June, as people became more optimistic about their financial situation and living standards, while fears of rising unemployment, are preserved. But the German consumer prices rose by 0.4% in June. According to the average forecast of analysts had expected growth of both indices at 0.3%. Thus, we see that the deflationary fears may still move away to second place, thanks to renewed increases in energy prices. Today, we received only a report on the eurozone economic sentiment, which, according to earlier reports from France and Germany, can be quite positive. There is, of course, this will have any impact on currency markets, which will be busy preparing for the more important releases week.
GBP
pound again recovered from the fall, although their development has not веется such a force and pressure. On Friday, Bank of England published a report that there were fears of huge losses incurred by British banks, which makes the domestic economy is very vulnerable. It would be sad it is not sounded, but all efforts to encourage the financial sector and the huge costs incurred by the government, has not yet been given and may no longer yield the results that are expected to power. Nevertheless, ekonom0cheskie reports continue to indicate that the bottom in the housing market has not yet been reached. Prices for housing in the UK fell slightly in May. According to the Land Cadastre Service, they declined to 0.2% m /m and 15.9% y /y. May data Halifax and Nationwide have shown that the decline in housing prices has stopped, but the official data of land cadastre contradict this, suggesting that the pace of monthly decline decreased, but it has not stopped.
Strong economic calendar this week includes the final GDP for 1 quarter, data on business activity in manufacturing and services. Recall that in last month's PMI services crossed key mark of 50 points, saying that the industry has moved into an area of development. If the trend is confirmed and at this time. This may provide strong support for pound. Today, however, pay attention to data on mortgage lending: the growing number of approved applications to instill the hope that the financial sector is not all lost.
JPY
Jena in the morning do not manifest a particular desire to move in any direction, as the markets have not yet decided on the theme of the day. As reported today by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, in May retail sales in Japan fell 2.8% y /y. Rate of decline in May, has not changed against a revised 2.8% rate in April, but slowed down as compared to -3.8% in March and -5.7% in February. Thus, we see that the rate of decline has slowed, but the fact that we do not see positive indicators, said that people still prefer to save than spend. Meanwhile, a separate report, all gave the same hope: to increase its industrial production for the third month in succession, as companies are replenishing stocks and the economy seem to begin to stabilize.
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