So, as we expect euro-dollar kept from falling further, today, a couple raised to 1.4143. At the same time yesterday, the Dow Jones closed at a maximum mark of 9154, rising to 0.92%. Oil prices rose today mark WTI above 67 dollars per barrel. General optimism can now get support after the publication of the first assessment of GDP growth in the U.S. the 2nd quarter. It was expected that economic decline would be only -1.5% per annum.
We assume now that the period of optimism in the markets is delayed much longer periods than might be expected. Strong growth in the U.S., which we have waited since the first half of June, so not followed. United States have been able to attract large amounts of funds into treasury securities without lowering of markets, in July, significantly decreased only oil. Apparently, the purpose of the American authorities do is to show positive growth in GDP in the United States 3 rd quarter before the beginning of a really powerful cycle of attracting capital to America. This is understandable: while the U.S. Treasury as a whole managed to maintain a phenomenal flow of funds into Treasuries, in general, as we have seen from the data on the TICS, six months of 2009 in five months, showed the total outflow of portfolio capital. In order to demonstrate the growth should continue politics of optimism, the benefit of a cheap dollar is also conducive to American industry.
If America will be able to show economic growth first, and then immediately throw the world economy in a new liquidity crisis, the dollar assets again truly become life-saving haven. Apparently, repeating the scenario last year and make summer a new liquidity crisis the U.S. did not exactly, because the credibility of the American economy has been lost, the dollar would no longer be perceived as a currency of refuge. At the same time, we have no doubt that the second wave of crisis in the U.S. economy, and then in the world economy will certainly follow.
The reasons we have repeatedly enumerating the reviews: this is acrisis of debt on credit cards in the United States, and problems in the labor market (in particular in connection with the end of the timing of the receipt of benefits) and the budget crisis. Actually, despite the marked reduction in consumption in the United States, the imbalances in the global economy have largely been eliminated, and the politics of optimism only to increase again. The delay is due simply wait a moment for a new explosion. We are forced to revise its medium-term scenario. The growth of the dollar in August unlikely. On the contrary, the continuation of politics of optimism, we expect to see the 1.47 mark in August and 1.49 in September. Short-term, we continue to anticipate the movement of the euro in the range of 1.4050-1.43 and 12 August (in the first half of August, the Treasury will continue the aggressive placement), in the second half of August, probably update maxima years. Locally, we are to see continued correction from the last failure of the euro (from 1.43 to 1.40) up to 80-90%, an increase of the pair in the district 1.4250-1.4270.
Analysis - Results of the day
The market of Russia will continue its upward movement, at least in the short term
The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 2.56 point, the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 rose 3.16 point
While bidding to develop the metallurgical sector: Severstal (4.5%), CMI (1.4%), NLMK (1.4%)
Of the notable events of this week is worth noting the agreement Alfa Bank to restructure the debt of the GAS
Leaders today are paper VTB, the growth associated with the collection of applications from shareholders to use the priority to buy additional issue of shares
Support 1.4000 nevertheless been able to stop the fall of the euro
Goskomstat: Average charges for zhilkomuslugi in Ukraine in June increased by 31.8%
Opinion: The devaluation of hryvnia prior to the allocation of the IMF tranche - a sign of close games in exchange for the NBU command
Dow Jones hits a maximum of the maximum and are drawn to the euro
So, as we expect euro-dollar kept from falling further, today, a couple raised to 1.4143. At the same time yesterday, the Dow Jones closed at a maximum mark of 9154, rising to 0.92%. Oil prices rose today mark WTI above 67 dollars per barrel. General optimism can now get support after the publication of the first assessment of GDP growth in the U.S. the 2nd quarter. It was expected that economic decline would be only -1.5% per annum.
We assume now that the period of optimism in the markets is delayed much longer periods than might be expected. Strong growth in the U.S., which we have waited since the first half of June, so not followed. United States have been able to attract large amounts of funds into treasury securities without lowering of markets, in July, significantly decreased only oil. Apparently, the purpose of the American authorities do is to show positive growth in GDP in the United States 3 rd quarter before the beginning of a really powerful cycle of attracting capital to America. This is understandable: while the U.S. Treasury as a whole managed to maintain a phenomenal flow of funds into Treasuries, in general, as we have seen from the data on the TICS, six months of 2009 in five months, showed the total outflow of portfolio capital. In order to demonstrate the growth should continue politics of optimism, the benefit of a cheap dollar is also conducive to American industry.
If America will be able to show economic growth first, and then immediately throw the world economy in a new liquidity crisis, the dollar assets again truly become life-saving haven. Apparently, repeating the scenario last year and make summer a new liquidity crisis the U.S. did not exactly, because the credibility of the American economy has been lost, the dollar would no longer be perceived as a currency of refuge. At the same time, we have no doubt that the second wave of crisis in the U.S. economy, and then in the world economy will certainly follow.
The reasons we have repeatedly enumerating the reviews: this is acrisis of debt on credit cards in the United States, and problems in the labor market (in particular in connection with the end of the timing of the receipt of benefits) and the budget crisis. Actually, despite the marked reduction in consumption in the United States, the imbalances in the global economy have largely been eliminated, and the politics of optimism only to increase again. The delay is due simply wait a moment for a new explosion. We are forced to revise its medium-term scenario. The growth of the dollar in August unlikely. On the contrary, the continuation of politics of optimism, we expect to see the 1.47 mark in August and 1.49 in September. Short-term, we continue to anticipate the movement of the euro in the range of 1.4050-1.43 and 12 August (in the first half of August, the Treasury will continue the aggressive placement), in the second half of August, probably update maxima years. Locally, we are to see continued correction from the last failure of the euro (from 1.43 to 1.40) up to 80-90%, an increase of the pair in the district 1.4250-1.4270.
Analysis - Results of the day
The market of Russia will continue its upward movement, at least in the short term
The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 2.56 point, the index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 rose 3.16 point
While bidding to develop the metallurgical sector: Severstal (4.5%), CMI (1.4%), NLMK (1.4%)
Of the notable events of this week is worth noting the agreement Alfa Bank to restructure the debt of the GAS
Leaders today are paper VTB, the growth associated with the collection of applications from shareholders to use the priority to buy additional issue of shares
Support 1.4000 nevertheless been able to stop the fall of the euro
Goskomstat: Average charges for zhilkomuslugi in Ukraine in June increased by 31.8%
Opinion: The devaluation of hryvnia prior to the allocation of the IMF tranche - a sign of close games in exchange for the NBU command