dollar has managed to hold position against other major currencies. This pair of EUR /USD trading above 1.4200 marks, a pair GBP /USD rose above 1.6500, a couple of USD /CHF fell to 1.0730. Japanese yen traded is not exactly and lost some positions against other currencies. This pair USD /JPY has risen above a mark 96.00, and a pair of EUR /JPY has exceeded 137.00. Commodity currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD moves toward 0.8400, a pair NZD /USD once again rose above 0.6700, a couple of USD /CAD has not been able to hold above 1.1000.
Causes
Before the dollar was little support after the outcome of the Fed meeting, as the Operations Committee on the open market, said slowing purchases of Treasury bonds and give a precise date of completion of the quantitative mitigation. However, the central bank did not provide any indication that the possibility of higher interest rates, which alienated some demand for dollars. In addition, the growth in world stock markets, indicating a high propensity of investors to risk, has strengthened risky currencies, as a result, the dollar is back to levels where it traded before the announcement of the outcome of the meeting.
What to expect?
Volatility of dollars that could be observed immediately after the Fed statement, reflects the overall uncertainty in the foreign exchange market, and in general can be expected that the strategy of trade against the dollar is unlikely to change in the near future. The strategy is to buy the American currency during the period of fear and strengthen its sales with improved sentiment in the market. This strategy was first broken last week after the publication of data on the labor market, but there is no tangible reason for his departure he had it in the future. Signs of recovery in the global economy must retain a stable tendency of investors to take risks that would support a risky currencies. At the same time, increasing the likelihood of the Fed rate, which could okat support for the dollar remains low. In this situation, the dollar is likely to remain under downward pressure.
At the same time, short-term prospects Americans will likely be determined by incoming data. In particular, today the U.S. will be the last published figures on retail sales, import prices and demand for unemployment benefits. Supportive data are likely to contribute to the propensity to take risks and, consequently, play against the dollar. In the euro today, will be published the first estimate of GDP in the II quarter of the region. Negative data to some extent expected, and if the actual figures will not differ from the projections, the reaction to the euro is likely to be restrained.
What is fear?
Portion of negative data from the United States is capable of bringing the pessimism in the market and ensure a new round of growth in the U.S..
Review of the FOREX market for 12.08.09
Dynamics
dollar has managed to hold position against other major currencies. This pair of EUR /USD trading above 1.4200 marks, a pair GBP /USD rose above 1.6500, a couple of USD /CHF fell to 1.0730. Japanese yen traded is not exactly and lost some positions against other currencies. This pair USD /JPY has risen above a mark 96.00, and a pair of EUR /JPY has exceeded 137.00. Commodity currencies strengthened against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD moves toward 0.8400, a pair NZD /USD once again rose above 0.6700, a couple of USD /CAD has not been able to hold above 1.1000.
Causes
Before the dollar was little support after the outcome of the Fed meeting, as the Operations Committee on the open market, said slowing purchases of Treasury bonds and give a precise date of completion of the quantitative mitigation. However, the central bank did not provide any indication that the possibility of higher interest rates, which alienated some demand for dollars. In addition, the growth in world stock markets, indicating a high propensity of investors to risk, has strengthened risky currencies, as a result, the dollar is back to levels where it traded before the announcement of the outcome of the meeting.
What to expect?
Volatility of dollars that could be observed immediately after the Fed statement, reflects the overall uncertainty in the foreign exchange market, and in general can be expected that the strategy of trade against the dollar is unlikely to change in the near future. The strategy is to buy the American currency during the period of fear and strengthen its sales with improved sentiment in the market. This strategy was first broken last week after the publication of data on the labor market, but there is no tangible reason for his departure he had it in the future. Signs of recovery in the global economy must retain a stable tendency of investors to take risks that would support a risky currencies. At the same time, increasing the likelihood of the Fed rate, which could okat support for the dollar remains low. In this situation, the dollar is likely to remain under downward pressure.
At the same time, short-term prospects Americans will likely be determined by incoming data. In particular, today the U.S. will be the last published figures on retail sales, import prices and demand for unemployment benefits. Supportive data are likely to contribute to the propensity to take risks and, consequently, play against the dollar. In the euro today, will be published the first estimate of GDP in the II quarter of the region. Negative data to some extent expected, and if the actual figures will not differ from the projections, the reaction to the euro is likely to be restrained.
What is fear?
Portion of negative data from the United States is capable of bringing the pessimism in the market and ensure a new round of growth in the U.S..
It may look like the market shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel
The reason for changing the situation on the Russian market could become today's statistics from the United States
In the case of enhancing the positive mood of the contest Polyus Gold may test the 1300 mark in rubles
As a favorite of today may be the paper Sberbank, Lukoil and Rosneft
Growth potential for the SP500 index allows you to count on achieving a level of 1120 points
Today is expected to fairly busy news day
Overview of the foreign exchange market 13.08.2009
Rodovid Bank and Ukrgasbank with permission from the NBU refused to return investors 550 million UAH
Tymoshenko is not able to reduce gas prices for Chimprom