Quiet Days of summer coming to an end - this is the last, and even to the same and the output in the UK, which gives last chance to rest before active trading, and maybe even leaving the summer range (although there is an assumption that markets do not activated until the U.S. Labor Day). Nevertheless, despite the lack of traders in connection with the British bank holiday, we have an abundance of interesting reports, which can be a dangerous mixture - on thin trading movement is always more dramatic and exaggerated.
Spectators data veyali optimism. Consumer spending in the U.S. in July reflected the growth, as households have been able to fully take advantage of the program money for jalopy to buy new cars. The growth of 0,2% in line with guidance, and followed by an increase of 0,6% in June. Indicators of income have not changed, which led to the growth rate of savings. Thus, we obtain the results of the stimulus package the government, which is likely to be temporary effect, because in reality, wages and incomes remain in place (and may even fall). Released later report showed consumer confidence index exceeded projections (65.7 against expectations of 64.5) also confirms that the government package helps Americans took heart. But you should not be based on this forecast on further prospects of the U.S. economy - too many questions and uncertainties.
This week offers several sessions at the rate (Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB), data on the labor market in different parts of the world, the study of manufacturing and service sectors the United States, as well as the protocol of the last meeting of the Fed. Today's reports are entirely devoted to business activity in different regions of the States (Chicago, New York, Dallas), and are unlikely to cause a big reaction in the markets. But do not forget that the current week - week of employment levels, so it is time to start monitoring component of the labor market in each release.
EUR
If before we did, that criticized the ECB for its neutral policy, as well as in horror waiting for the same E-16 fall to pieces, but now everything is different. The sudden emergence of positive reports, which have continued to appear, made us think - and not be seen whether this is the region in the race to overcome the crisis first? In August, business and consumer confidence in E-16 had improved 5-second time in a row: European Commission's indicator of economic sentiment rose to a 10-month maximum of 80.6 against 76.0 in July, exceeding the average forecast of 78.0. At the forefront of growth were the suppliers services, had acknowledged the greatest improvement of conditions for the past three months and pending further improvement over the next three months. The overall sentiment in the services sector has grown from -18 to -11, reaching the best level since October 2008
However, figures from Italy and France, still casts doubt on the recent optimistic signals. Italian PPI fell 0.4% m /m and 7.5% y /y against 0.5% m /m, -6.3% y /y in June. Record drop in producer prices in annual terms was due to the continuing decline in energy prices and the persistence of economic weakness. Moreover, according to a quarterly study of the state statistical service Insee, in 2009, investment in French industry could collapse with a crash that cast doubt on the restoration of the second largest European economy. Today we get a report on the preliminary CPI for August, and there may again cause problems - if the index fall continues, the fears about deflation again return to the scene.And in this case, the euro could come under pressure, albeit short-lived, given the planned meeting this week the ECB.
GBP
The fact that the second reading of GDP for the second quarter was slightly better than forecasts, and preliminary figures, allowed the pound strengthen slightly, but quite a bit. Pessimism prevails over the Bank of England's national currency, and until we hear the optimistic comments of official representatives or sverhpozitivnyh reports on the economy, little has changed. Revision of the title page index to increase (to 0.1% of the original estimates made in late July) was primarily due to the dynamics of industrial production sector, where there were only reduced to 0.6% quarter /quarter against the original estimate -0,7% . In comments to the report was marked by the positive contribution of such sectors as manufacturing, energy, automotive industry and wholesale trade. It is not surprising, given that Britain has become the first country in the industrialized world, reflecting the transition PMI a positive growth territory.
Despite the fact that today in the UK holiday, then on the week we see reports on manufacturing, services and construction industry. If all of the above will continue to breathe optimism, the British have a chance to get better. However, the growth indices must be really strong.
JPY
U yen today was a double celebration: the fall in Chinese stock markets triggered the flight of investors from risk, and the past weekend elections have stimulated the demand for domestic currency. Japanese opposition - the Democratic Party of Japan was able to win a landslide victory, receiving a majority of seats (480) in the House of Representatives. Thus, the power of the ruling coalition, for 50 years led the LDP to the DPJ's moves. Traders reported that such an outcome of the elections led to the fact that many players were forced to close positions in the yen crosses, placed before the weekend.
Published morning reports were mixed. Data on industrial production confirmed the continued growth in the industry, but retail sales have shown 11-month negative levels, indicating that people are not rushing to spend their savings, waiting for a new round of deflation, which makes the prices of goods more attractive. Not a very positive trend, I must say.
That's about to break out of ranges
USD
Quiet Days of summer coming to an end - this is the last, and even to the same and the output in the UK, which gives last chance to rest before active trading, and maybe even leaving the summer range (although there is an assumption that markets do not activated until the U.S. Labor Day). Nevertheless, despite the lack of traders in connection with the British bank holiday, we have an abundance of interesting reports, which can be a dangerous mixture - on thin trading movement is always more dramatic and exaggerated.
Spectators data veyali optimism. Consumer spending in the U.S. in July reflected the growth, as households have been able to fully take advantage of the program money for jalopy to buy new cars. The growth of 0,2% in line with guidance, and followed by an increase of 0,6% in June. Indicators of income have not changed, which led to the growth rate of savings. Thus, we obtain the results of the stimulus package the government, which is likely to be temporary effect, because in reality, wages and incomes remain in place (and may even fall). Released later report showed consumer confidence index exceeded projections (65.7 against expectations of 64.5) also confirms that the government package helps Americans took heart. But you should not be based on this forecast on further prospects of the U.S. economy - too many questions and uncertainties.
This week offers several sessions at the rate (Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB), data on the labor market in different parts of the world, the study of manufacturing and service sectors the United States, as well as the protocol of the last meeting of the Fed. Today's reports are entirely devoted to business activity in different regions of the States (Chicago, New York, Dallas), and are unlikely to cause a big reaction in the markets. But do not forget that the current week - week of employment levels, so it is time to start monitoring component of the labor market in each release.
EUR
If before we did, that criticized the ECB for its neutral policy, as well as in horror waiting for the same E-16 fall to pieces, but now everything is different. The sudden emergence of positive reports, which have continued to appear, made us think - and not be seen whether this is the region in the race to overcome the crisis first? In August, business and consumer confidence in E-16 had improved 5-second time in a row: European Commission's indicator of economic sentiment rose to a 10-month maximum of 80.6 against 76.0 in July, exceeding the average forecast of 78.0. At the forefront of growth were the suppliers services, had acknowledged the greatest improvement of conditions for the past three months and pending further improvement over the next three months. The overall sentiment in the services sector has grown from -18 to -11, reaching the best level since October 2008
However, figures from Italy and France, still casts doubt on the recent optimistic signals. Italian PPI fell 0.4% m /m and 7.5% y /y against 0.5% m /m, -6.3% y /y in June. Record drop in producer prices in annual terms was due to the continuing decline in energy prices and the persistence of economic weakness. Moreover, according to a quarterly study of the state statistical service Insee, in 2009, investment in French industry could collapse with a crash that cast doubt on the restoration of the second largest European economy. Today we get a report on the preliminary CPI for August, and there may again cause problems - if the index fall continues, the fears about deflation again return to the scene.And in this case, the euro could come under pressure, albeit short-lived, given the planned meeting this week the ECB.
GBP
The fact that the second reading of GDP for the second quarter was slightly better than forecasts, and preliminary figures, allowed the pound strengthen slightly, but quite a bit. Pessimism prevails over the Bank of England's national currency, and until we hear the optimistic comments of official representatives or sverhpozitivnyh reports on the economy, little has changed. Revision of the title page index to increase (to 0.1% of the original estimates made in late July) was primarily due to the dynamics of industrial production sector, where there were only reduced to 0.6% quarter /quarter against the original estimate -0,7% . In comments to the report was marked by the positive contribution of such sectors as manufacturing, energy, automotive industry and wholesale trade. It is not surprising, given that Britain has become the first country in the industrialized world, reflecting the transition PMI a positive growth territory.
Despite the fact that today in the UK holiday, then on the week we see reports on manufacturing, services and construction industry. If all of the above will continue to breathe optimism, the British have a chance to get better. However, the growth indices must be really strong.
JPY
U yen today was a double celebration: the fall in Chinese stock markets triggered the flight of investors from risk, and the past weekend elections have stimulated the demand for domestic currency. Japanese opposition - the Democratic Party of Japan was able to win a landslide victory, receiving a majority of seats (480) in the House of Representatives. Thus, the power of the ruling coalition, for 50 years led the LDP to the DPJ's moves. Traders reported that such an outcome of the elections led to the fact that many players were forced to close positions in the yen crosses, placed before the weekend.
Published morning reports were mixed. Data on industrial production confirmed the continued growth in the industry, but retail sales have shown 11-month negative levels, indicating that people are not rushing to spend their savings, waiting for a new round of deflation, which makes the prices of goods more attractive. Not a very positive trend, I must say.
Recommendations for market shares: LUKoil, Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
Undulation continues to dominate the domestic market, and another variation may lead to a reduction in the area of 2-2,5% in the first half of the trading week
Asian markets decline in the current trading after the companies in the metallurgical sector
Crude oil futures on Friday closed with a slight increase
Review of the FOREX market for 28.08.09
From the statistics of the United States today will present interesting business activity index Chicago PMI
Technical analysis by currency pair EUR /USD
Mergers acquisitions: a review of the week from 24 to 28 August
Asia: report of Chinese companies and the strengthening of the yen to resume sales