most resonant July news for the railway industry of Ukraine was the statement by Sergei Tigipko of the decision to get rid of the carriage business.
At the same time sell their assets (at least some of them), he intends to Russians that, according to some experts, could lead to irreparable consequences for the Ukrainian railway industry.
Recall: Financial-Industrial Group TAS, founder and principal shareholder of which is Mr. Tigipko owns significant stakes in OAO Dneprovagonmash (specializes in the design and manufacture of railway wagons for main railways in the last year the proportion of enterprise obscheukrainskom production of cars was 12%), OJSC Krukovskiy Car Plant (KVSZ) and OJSC Kremenchug Steel Works (KSLZ).
Detailed information on the size of packages in each of the assets is not disclosed, but analysts argue that KVSZ group TAS by about 25% of the shares. Incidentally, it is on its share of the KVSZ Tigipko said that the intention to sell the Russians, as the main market for Krukovka Carriages will is precisely the Russian. According to the factory, about 70% of output they produce goes for export, mostly - in the Russian Federation.
A buyer
Although the seller has not clarified what exactly the Russian companies, negotiations, experts on the move is called the most likely buyers. According to Konstantin Stepanov, head of analytical department of the investment group of Socrates, for a number of Russian companies buying Ukrainian vagonostroiteley now is really very interesting. Particularly the Transmashholding ( TMX).
Buying KVSZ, the company practically monopolizes the market for passenger cars in the CIS. We also do not rule out that part in the purchase of assets may take the other major manufacturers of cars from Russia, as well as some investment funds for resale asset - the expert believes. I agree with a colleague and Ruslan Patlavsky, an analyst for the engineering investment company Foyil Securities: Until recently, the market for passenger cars in the CIS was the monopoly of Tver Carriage Works, which is part of Transmashholding.
And for a long time. Thus, it is logical to assume that all potential buyers would be most interested it is a company willing to absorb a competitor in the person KVSZ. In the face of limited demand for carriage of the likelihood that the TMX will enhance production capacity of freight cars (ie, buy more and Dneprovagonmash ) in the near future, small.
However, we do not exclude that the smaller the Russian players would be interested in buying Dneprovagonmasha. Today, it is very difficult to say who of the players Car segment, it would be interesting to gain control over KSLZ, however it is likely to be a company that wants to create a vertically integrated machine-building holding . Yegor Samusenko, an analyst of investment company Concorde Capital, too, does not preclude the expression of interest in domestic vagonostroitelyam and by other Russian companies (and not just TMX). Maybe buy Ukrainian assets carriage and Cinar , which deals with the electric-and teplovozostroeniem, - noted the expert.
Since
Tigipko said that would try to sell everything as quickly as possible, Inna Perepelitsa, an analyst of investment group standard investment suggests that much will depend on which of the companies, buyers can pay immediately. And in that situation all the same Transmashholding is the most solvent buyer, I'm sure Stepanov, because of the company (recently sold 25% of its shares of a foreign manufacturer Alstom, but also look for financial support for its shareholders, as the Russian Railways) sufficient funds to purchase the assets offered. Besides, prices are now the most that either there is attractive. According to estimates by Konstantin Stepanov, KVSZ current capitalization is about $ 176 million, while in July 2008 reached $ 500 million for the remaining asset prices also fell three times in the last year.
the truth, TMX already had a very negative experience of buying companies in Ukraine, where in 2007 through its daughter - Bryansk Engineering Works - acquired 76% shares in Luganskteplovoz, after which the MFI to challenge the transaction. And in early 2008, the Supreme Court of Ukraine adopted a decision on the return of the asset in state property, but the decision was never implemented, and the TMX continues to place orders for the company, position ourselves as a shareholder.
Consequences
Experts Consulting Consortium Management Consulting groups fear that by acquiring assets at a discounted price of Ukrainian plants, the Russians will be abused to control most of the wagon market CIS and Ukraine. In this case, Russia will become a serious pressure on the lever УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†ÑŽ as able to regulate the production and delivery of products. This situation is particularly dangerous, given that a few years the problem of wear of the rolling stock of Ukrainian Railways again become very topical, - noted experts.
According to Ruslan Patlavskogo, these concerns are well justified because of the CIS countries, by and large, only Ukraine and Russia have the capacity for mass production of rolling stock. If the Russians buy KVSZ and Dneprovagonmash, this will allow them to control about 73% of all the facilities for the production of railcars in the Commonwealth of Independent States (in 2008 they controlled 60% of capacity). Thus, it could increase Russia's influence on the Ukrainian market of cars, including allowing a direct impact on purchasing УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†і, - said Patlavsky.
Some experts believe those fears are unfounded. As noted by Yegor Samusenko remain other Ukrainian producers of cars, which can cover the needs УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†і. This is also the opinionof the Inna Perepelitsa: Ukrainian producers to sell 90% of its freight cars in Russia, but УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†Ñ annual purchases of less than 5% of the production of domestic production. In addition, УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†Ñ can buy cars at other Ukrainian plants, it is quite enough capacity to service its orders.
Angelina Bakalinskij
Yushchenko is concerned about the situation in the agroindustrial complex
Macroeconomic data from the United States breathed life into the Russian Indexes
The head of Eni: Well, that Russian gas will bypass Ukraine
The metallurgical industry of Ukraine is loaded at two-thirds
Living Lvova due debts for zhilkomuslugi may be denied when going abroad
Unemployment in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in July, a decline in employment was less than forecast
Ukraine stock market closed on Friday in the minus
NBU: The National Bank of Ukraine tightly controls the execution of programs capitalization
Panelists: The influx of capital into funds investing in shares of Russia and the CIS amounted to a week to $ 45.1 million
Coupe cars
most resonant July news for the railway industry of Ukraine was the statement by Sergei Tigipko of the decision to get rid of the carriage business.
At the same time sell their assets (at least some of them), he intends to Russians that, according to some experts, could lead to irreparable consequences for the Ukrainian railway industry.
Recall: Financial-Industrial Group TAS, founder and principal shareholder of which is Mr. Tigipko owns significant stakes in OAO Dneprovagonmash (specializes in the design and manufacture of railway wagons for main railways in the last year the proportion of enterprise obscheukrainskom production of cars was 12%), OJSC Krukovskiy Car Plant (KVSZ) and OJSC Kremenchug Steel Works (KSLZ).
Detailed information on the size of packages in each of the assets is not disclosed, but analysts argue that KVSZ group TAS by about 25% of the shares. Incidentally, it is on its share of the KVSZ Tigipko said that the intention to sell the Russians, as the main market for Krukovka Carriages will is precisely the Russian. According to the factory, about 70% of output they produce goes for export, mostly - in the Russian Federation.
A buyer
Although the seller has not clarified what exactly the Russian companies, negotiations, experts on the move is called the most likely buyers. According to Konstantin Stepanov, head of analytical department of the investment group of Socrates, for a number of Russian companies buying Ukrainian vagonostroiteley now is really very interesting. Particularly the Transmashholding ( TMX).
Buying KVSZ, the company practically monopolizes the market for passenger cars in the CIS. We also do not rule out that part in the purchase of assets may take the other major manufacturers of cars from Russia, as well as some investment funds for resale asset - the expert believes. I agree with a colleague and Ruslan Patlavsky, an analyst for the engineering investment company Foyil Securities: Until recently, the market for passenger cars in the CIS was the monopoly of Tver Carriage Works, which is part of Transmashholding.
And for a long time. Thus, it is logical to assume that all potential buyers would be most interested it is a company willing to absorb a competitor in the person KVSZ. In the face of limited demand for carriage of the likelihood that the TMX will enhance production capacity of freight cars (ie, buy more and Dneprovagonmash ) in the near future, small.
However, we do not exclude that the smaller the Russian players would be interested in buying Dneprovagonmasha. Today, it is very difficult to say who of the players Car segment, it would be interesting to gain control over KSLZ, however it is likely to be a company that wants to create a vertically integrated machine-building holding . Yegor Samusenko, an analyst of investment company Concorde Capital, too, does not preclude the expression of interest in domestic vagonostroitelyam and by other Russian companies (and not just TMX). Maybe buy Ukrainian assets carriage and Cinar , which deals with the electric-and teplovozostroeniem, - noted the expert.
Since
Tigipko said that would try to sell everything as quickly as possible, Inna Perepelitsa, an analyst of investment group standard investment suggests that much will depend on which of the companies, buyers can pay immediately. And in that situation all the same Transmashholding is the most solvent buyer, I'm sure Stepanov, because of the company (recently sold 25% of its shares of a foreign manufacturer Alstom, but also look for financial support for its shareholders, as the Russian Railways) sufficient funds to purchase the assets offered. Besides, prices are now the most that either there is attractive. According to estimates by Konstantin Stepanov, KVSZ current capitalization is about $ 176 million, while in July 2008 reached $ 500 million for the remaining asset prices also fell three times in the last year.
the truth, TMX already had a very negative experience of buying companies in Ukraine, where in 2007 through its daughter - Bryansk Engineering Works - acquired 76% shares in Luganskteplovoz, after which the MFI to challenge the transaction. And in early 2008, the Supreme Court of Ukraine adopted a decision on the return of the asset in state property, but the decision was never implemented, and the TMX continues to place orders for the company, position ourselves as a shareholder.
Consequences
Experts Consulting Consortium Management Consulting groups fear that by acquiring assets at a discounted price of Ukrainian plants, the Russians will be abused to control most of the wagon market CIS and Ukraine. In this case, Russia will become a serious pressure on the lever УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†ÑŽ as able to regulate the production and delivery of products. This situation is particularly dangerous, given that a few years the problem of wear of the rolling stock of Ukrainian Railways again become very topical, - noted experts.
According to Ruslan Patlavskogo, these concerns are well justified because of the CIS countries, by and large, only Ukraine and Russia have the capacity for mass production of rolling stock. If the Russians buy KVSZ and Dneprovagonmash, this will allow them to control about 73% of all the facilities for the production of railcars in the Commonwealth of Independent States (in 2008 they controlled 60% of capacity). Thus, it could increase Russia's influence on the Ukrainian market of cars, including allowing a direct impact on purchasing УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†і, - said Patlavsky.
Some experts believe those fears are unfounded. As noted by Yegor Samusenko remain other Ukrainian producers of cars, which can cover the needs УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†і. This is also the opinionof the Inna Perepelitsa: Ukrainian producers to sell 90% of its freight cars in Russia, but УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†Ñ annual purchases of less than 5% of the production of domestic production. In addition, УкрзаліÐ·Ð½Ð¸Ñ†Ñ can buy cars at other Ukrainian plants, it is quite enough capacity to service its orders.
Angelina Bakalinskij
Yushchenko is concerned about the situation in the agroindustrial complex
Macroeconomic data from the United States breathed life into the Russian Indexes
The head of Eni: Well, that Russian gas will bypass Ukraine
The metallurgical industry of Ukraine is loaded at two-thirds
Living Lvova due debts for zhilkomuslugi may be denied when going abroad
Unemployment in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in July, a decline in employment was less than forecast
Ukraine stock market closed on Friday in the minus
NBU: The National Bank of Ukraine tightly controls the execution of programs capitalization
Panelists: The influx of capital into funds investing in shares of Russia and the CIS amounted to a week to $ 45.1 million