If we believe that the blockade of Ukraine, Turkmenistan, and then was a prelude, then the policy next year budetnepredskazuemoy …
Russia's Gazprom and China's CNPC signed a second on Oct. 12 for the last five years, a memorandum on cooperation in natural gas supplies. The document is intended to expand the tools of the price pressure the government of Russia ongas consumers in the EU and Ukraine - even the nominal yield on the vast Chinese market will give the Russians quite a logical reason to demand from the Europeans about high gas prices and in periods of low world prices of oil and gas
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Statistical incidents of Gazprom
Reporting Gazprom on international standards for the first quarter of 2009, published in September, showed significant differences. According to Gazprom, the EU and Turkey in this period, the concern had sold 37.1 billion m3 of gas at the same time, proceeding from data on the implementation of the state budget of Russia in part payment of customs duties, from Russia to these markets have been exported only 13 Differences billion for neighboring countries even more - 9.7 billion m3 of natural supply and only 1.5 billion m3 of supply, which declared as exports. Statistical mishaps media manager, explained the financial department of Gazprom's Michael Rose. According to him, received in this period, Belarus 3.3 billion are not subject to duty, although included in the volume of deliveries. About 16 billion cubic meters of internal transfer purchases made by a group Gazprom Germania, 100% subsidiary of the group. It is twice more than in the first quarter of 2008. Growth vnutrifilialnogo transfer due to the fact that, apart from speculative operations on the spot areas, this group was forced to engage in extinguishing a fire - buy-free gas volumes in the market and supply it to European customers who were out of Russia's fuel during the war with Ukraine, - said Rose.
According to the report, the cost of fuel on the border with Kazakhstan to Gazprom in January-March amounted to $ 340 /1 thousand m3, the average price of sales in the EU - $ 382 /1 thousand m3.
Results for the purchase of natural gas of Central Asian origin, went about 160 billion rubles. That is three times larger than Russia's state budget has received from its gas exports over the same period - a role played aforesaid increase in transfers and duty-free shipments.
Given the length of the transport arm to the EU operation in Central Asia had no economic sense for Gazprom. signing contracts with suppliers, managers of Russia's companies and is not thought to lay in their ability to maneuver. They were trying at all costs prevent the steps of Central Asia to diversify exports, - said chief financial officer of Gazprom. According to him, as a result of Gazprom earlier this year had to be forced to reduce the selection of Turkmen gas, which in the second quarter was purchased by an inadequate, even by European standards and costs - $ 320 /1 thousand m3.
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share of gas in total energy of China today is only about 2% in the average world level of 23-25%. By 2015, due to the phasing out of Chinese from the dominant role of coal consumption is to rise to 5%. In 2010, the consumption and production of gas-planned economies of China, respectively, should reach 107 and 91.9 billion m3. Imports, which is now non-existent, will make 15,6 billion m3. For comparison: the Ukraine, which is almost an order of magnitude smaller than that of China, the size of GDP per year consumes more than 65 billion m3 of gas, of which 52 billion imports.
Bluff as a forerunner of a new aggressiveness
Initially, Moscow was preparing the current negotiations are not a memorandum and a draft agreement on strategic cooperation in gas supplies. Managed to sign only once a protocol of intent. The parties agreed to end the first quarter of 2010 to develop a pricing agreement, which will mark the volumes of gas and ways of its delivery. We see the delivery of two routes - the Western, from Siberia, is about 30 billion m3, and the east, from Sakhalin Island, is about 38 billion m3. We get thetotal volume of 68 billion m3, - said the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller, adding that about half of what Gazprom is planning to put the EU in the current year. He said construction will begin once the parties agree on a price, and will take at least three years.
Deputy Miller production Annanenkov Alexander said that the talks is not a breakthrough, but moving forward. Previously, all moved back. First focus on the Chinese market as a tool of intimidation traditional consumers in Ukraine and the EU authorities have tried to make Russia back in 2006. Then was concluded largely similar to the Russia-China gas memorandum. He was completely frustrated. As it was assumed that in 2011, the parties must begin to supply up to 15 billion m3 of gas per year from western Siberia to China's western provinces Sitszyan after the expansion of the existing Russia-Kazakhstan natural gas pipeline system Altai. Under this contract frustrated in the same year, Moscow and Beijing are planned to start construction of the pipeline East Siberia - Pacific Ocean, so as soon as 2015 to bring gas supplies to China on a firm figure of 64 billion m3.
These plans never to be realized, since the project of Russia and China failed to agree on the price of gas. Holy faith in the eternally supporting the high world price of oil, Gazprom confidently took to Beijing to impose the price of gas is not lower than the then average prices of the EU, that is, running start at $ 320-370/1 thousand m3. China as a completely new and also a fast growing importer of gas seriously offended by the comparison with Europe, where Gazprom has imposed dependence during the Soviet period. Beijing's response was harsh. In 2005-2007, he was able to relatively quickly agree on a price competitive and a much larger project (it was the Turkmenistan - China's output of 30 billion m3 per year) with up to three Central Asian states - Turkmenistan, the supplier, as well as companies tranzitorami from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
first Turkmen failure
This new alternative to Gazprom pipeline will earn from 1 January 2010. The average delivery price on it will not exceed $ 200 /1 thousand m3. Nominally, the 30 billion cubic meters of gas 17 billion will be supplied from Turkmenistan to set them common to Iran, Russia and China price - over $ 300 /1 thousand m3, but excluding repayment of China to build pipelines. Another 13 billion m3 will be delivered to China for even lower prices, estimated to $ 180 /1 thousand m3. That portion of supply was the gas produced in Turkmenistan territory of China - in part already earned the Turkmen-Chinese agreements (PSAs) from the Turkmen fields located in the previously untapped eastern bank of the Amu Darya River.
Based on these achievements Beijing was unlikely to agree to talk peacefully with Russia on a price to be at least a dollar higher than the Turkmen, having the effective double (import and PSA) is the real price of Turkmen supplies in 2010. In his interest to persuade the Kremlin to give Chinese companies of the Siberian oil fields to develop in the mode of the PSA. Just as it did, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, which controls China's major mining company Aktobemunaigaz.
It would seem that the Kremlin had to respond to these new realities and to make China the new proposals. However, even hinting at a possible joint development of Siberia and China in the current negotiations was not. Moreover, despite the achievement of China in Turkmenistan, the principle of double pricing, the Kremlin has decided not to make an exception for China in its policy of a single export price. Pricing will be built on Gazprom's practice of gas supplies for export. We agreed that deliveries will be defined in the contract, which will contain a formula tied to the price of gas exports to the EU - said after the current negotiations Miller.
second failure of the Turkmen
Theoretically, the Kremlin might well frustrate the timing of construction of Turkmenistan - China to launch project to bring gas talks with China on the subject of the price level of dialogue - impede the construction, for example, could provoke Islamic fundamentalists in the troubled regions of western China and eastern Uzbekistan. And they have occurred. July 13 in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, PRC (through which the pipeline) began mass protests Muslim Uighurs. However, they did not have a political nature and sunk to the level of mass street stabbing. The Hong Kong banks that lend construction, the excitement had not made the desired impression. How could anyone not like, this is still not a civil war.
In this picturesque force majeure terms of commissioning of the Turkmenistan - China could move on much more solid reason. She was launched in March, the blockade of Gazprom's gas imports from Turkmenistan. Without going into details of its pricing, it should be noted that the Central Asian press calls one home and is purely technical in the final goal of the blockade - the withdrawal of equipment failure most of the Turkmen field (minimum) or a forced emergency conservation (maximum) because of the pressure drop in the overlapped Gazprom pipelines. If this had happened, time for completion of the Turkmen-Chinese project certainly would have been transferred. However, Turkmenistan was able to cope with the situation. And we've got quite a different result. October 9, before the beginning of gas talks with China, Gazprom the surprise of many completely folded arms, declaring the termination of the blockade of Turkmenistan. And not a word uttered about reaching a compromise in a price dispute, which allegedly gave rise to this blockade. Released a strange paradox - Ashgabat now, as before, does not deny that put Gazprom gas price in 2009 at the entrance of Russia in the amount of $ 375 /1 thousand m3, and is, moreover, that the price of gas at the exit from Russia, Ukraine, to the end of the year fell below $ 200 /1 thousand m3. It turns out, the blockade ended the same, with which it had begun. So what if she really was - a price dispute or all the same, failed attempt to destroy the resource base of the Turkmen-Chinese project?
China card at least in the sleeve, at least in the community cards
Despite this diversity of methods, to which the authorities of Russia have decided to resort, in order to optimize the maximum now completed Russo-Chinese negotiations, we recall the main thing - they also concluded that planned. Signing a document under the glorious name of strategic cooperation agreement did not take place. At first glance, to assess if such a fiasco in isolation from the above events, it promises a tangible optimism of consumers of gas in Ukraine and the EU. Actual document with Beijing is not, and there's no ground under the reasoning that cheap gas at the old price was over, he bought the Chinese. However, if we see the winter's failed blockade of Ukraine and now the collapse of the blockade of Turkmenistan as a single coordinated policies, it begs a different conclusion. Hard to escape the impression that Gazprom is showing in only one in 2009 a maximum of an aggressive assault on the two major partners - the largest buyer, Ukraine, and a leading supplier, Turkmenistan - in the future in 2010 somehow transformed. Likely markets is expected to continue the current eclecticism. After all, if the Kremlin has taken to use the Chinese factor for the pressure on someone, and many suffered along the way, what difference will this factor dutym or real. In this approach, nothing prevents the beginning of price negotiations with China in January 2010 to declare some kind of grand Russo-Chinese mining projects, scaring the Ukraine and the EU, and then take it back.
John Smith
Today the market may look more sold on the eve of bank shares
The main factor supporting Russia's market today should be oil
During today's trading at the domestic players to improve is a good chance to take revenge after last Friday's correction
FGC is investing in the construction of new transmission lines in Yakutia 4.8 billion rubles
Exchange rate of dollars saved without changes - the morning review of cash markets
Kommersant: The National Bank has reached the limit
Oleg Deripaska is suspected of involvement in the case of Russia's mafia in Spain
A gradual slide down the market will continue until the index MICEX will not be reached support at 1250 points
Investors expect to make a bet that the world stock markets: to continue the rally, or on profit-taking
Gazprom has formed a policy-2010: pressure on Kiev and Brussels will return
If we believe that the blockade of Ukraine, Turkmenistan, and then was a prelude, then the policy next year budetnepredskazuemoy …
Russia's Gazprom and China's CNPC signed a second on Oct. 12 for the last five years, a memorandum on cooperation in natural gas supplies. The document is intended to expand the tools of the price pressure the government of Russia ongas consumers in the EU and Ukraine - even the nominal yield on the vast Chinese market will give the Russians quite a logical reason to demand from the Europeans about high gas prices and in periods of low world prices of oil and gas
ÂÂ
Statistical incidents of Gazprom
Reporting Gazprom on international standards for the first quarter of 2009, published in September, showed significant differences. According to Gazprom, the EU and Turkey in this period, the concern had sold 37.1 billion m3 of gas at the same time, proceeding from data on the implementation of the state budget of Russia in part payment of customs duties, from Russia to these markets have been exported only 13 Differences billion for neighboring countries even more - 9.7 billion m3 of natural supply and only 1.5 billion m3 of supply, which declared as exports. Statistical mishaps media manager, explained the financial department of Gazprom's Michael Rose. According to him, received in this period, Belarus 3.3 billion are not subject to duty, although included in the volume of deliveries. About 16 billion cubic meters of internal transfer purchases made by a group Gazprom Germania, 100% subsidiary of the group. It is twice more than in the first quarter of 2008. Growth vnutrifilialnogo transfer due to the fact that, apart from speculative operations on the spot areas, this group was forced to engage in extinguishing a fire - buy-free gas volumes in the market and supply it to European customers who were out of Russia's fuel during the war with Ukraine, - said Rose.
According to the report, the cost of fuel on the border with Kazakhstan to Gazprom in January-March amounted to $ 340 /1 thousand m3, the average price of sales in the EU - $ 382 /1 thousand m3.
Results for the purchase of natural gas of Central Asian origin, went about 160 billion rubles. That is three times larger than Russia's state budget has received from its gas exports over the same period - a role played aforesaid increase in transfers and duty-free shipments.
Given the length of the transport arm to the EU operation in Central Asia had no economic sense for Gazprom. signing contracts with suppliers, managers of Russia's companies and is not thought to lay in their ability to maneuver. They were trying at all costs prevent the steps of Central Asia to diversify exports, - said chief financial officer of Gazprom. According to him, as a result of Gazprom earlier this year had to be forced to reduce the selection of Turkmen gas, which in the second quarter was purchased by an inadequate, even by European standards and costs - $ 320 /1 thousand m3.
 ÂÂ
ÂÂ
ÂÂ
share of gas in total energy of China today is only about 2% in the average world level of 23-25%. By 2015, due to the phasing out of Chinese from the dominant role of coal consumption is to rise to 5%. In 2010, the consumption and production of gas-planned economies of China, respectively, should reach 107 and 91.9 billion m3. Imports, which is now non-existent, will make 15,6 billion m3. For comparison: the Ukraine, which is almost an order of magnitude smaller than that of China, the size of GDP per year consumes more than 65 billion m3 of gas, of which 52 billion imports.
Bluff as a forerunner of a new aggressiveness
Initially, Moscow was preparing the current negotiations are not a memorandum and a draft agreement on strategic cooperation in gas supplies. Managed to sign only once a protocol of intent. The parties agreed to end the first quarter of 2010 to develop a pricing agreement, which will mark the volumes of gas and ways of its delivery. We see the delivery of two routes - the Western, from Siberia, is about 30 billion m3, and the east, from Sakhalin Island, is about 38 billion m3. We get thetotal volume of 68 billion m3, - said the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller, adding that about half of what Gazprom is planning to put the EU in the current year. He said construction will begin once the parties agree on a price, and will take at least three years.
Deputy Miller production Annanenkov Alexander said that the talks is not a breakthrough, but moving forward. Previously, all moved back. First focus on the Chinese market as a tool of intimidation traditional consumers in Ukraine and the EU authorities have tried to make Russia back in 2006. Then was concluded largely similar to the Russia-China gas memorandum. He was completely frustrated. As it was assumed that in 2011, the parties must begin to supply up to 15 billion m3 of gas per year from western Siberia to China's western provinces Sitszyan after the expansion of the existing Russia-Kazakhstan natural gas pipeline system Altai. Under this contract frustrated in the same year, Moscow and Beijing are planned to start construction of the pipeline East Siberia - Pacific Ocean, so as soon as 2015 to bring gas supplies to China on a firm figure of 64 billion m3.
These plans never to be realized, since the project of Russia and China failed to agree on the price of gas. Holy faith in the eternally supporting the high world price of oil, Gazprom confidently took to Beijing to impose the price of gas is not lower than the then average prices of the EU, that is, running start at $ 320-370/1 thousand m3. China as a completely new and also a fast growing importer of gas seriously offended by the comparison with Europe, where Gazprom has imposed dependence during the Soviet period. Beijing's response was harsh. In 2005-2007, he was able to relatively quickly agree on a price competitive and a much larger project (it was the Turkmenistan - China's output of 30 billion m3 per year) with up to three Central Asian states - Turkmenistan, the supplier, as well as companies tranzitorami from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
first Turkmen failure
This new alternative to Gazprom pipeline will earn from 1 January 2010. The average delivery price on it will not exceed $ 200 /1 thousand m3. Nominally, the 30 billion cubic meters of gas 17 billion will be supplied from Turkmenistan to set them common to Iran, Russia and China price - over $ 300 /1 thousand m3, but excluding repayment of China to build pipelines. Another 13 billion m3 will be delivered to China for even lower prices, estimated to $ 180 /1 thousand m3. That portion of supply was the gas produced in Turkmenistan territory of China - in part already earned the Turkmen-Chinese agreements (PSAs) from the Turkmen fields located in the previously untapped eastern bank of the Amu Darya River.
Based on these achievements Beijing was unlikely to agree to talk peacefully with Russia on a price to be at least a dollar higher than the Turkmen, having the effective double (import and PSA) is the real price of Turkmen supplies in 2010. In his interest to persuade the Kremlin to give Chinese companies of the Siberian oil fields to develop in the mode of the PSA. Just as it did, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, which controls China's major mining company Aktobemunaigaz.
It would seem that the Kremlin had to respond to these new realities and to make China the new proposals. However, even hinting at a possible joint development of Siberia and China in the current negotiations was not. Moreover, despite the achievement of China in Turkmenistan, the principle of double pricing, the Kremlin has decided not to make an exception for China in its policy of a single export price. Pricing will be built on Gazprom's practice of gas supplies for export. We agreed that deliveries will be defined in the contract, which will contain a formula tied to the price of gas exports to the EU - said after the current negotiations Miller.
second failure of the Turkmen
Theoretically, the Kremlin might well frustrate the timing of construction of Turkmenistan - China to launch project to bring gas talks with China on the subject of the price level of dialogue - impede the construction, for example, could provoke Islamic fundamentalists in the troubled regions of western China and eastern Uzbekistan. And they have occurred. July 13 in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, PRC (through which the pipeline) began mass protests Muslim Uighurs. However, they did not have a political nature and sunk to the level of mass street stabbing. The Hong Kong banks that lend construction, the excitement had not made the desired impression. How could anyone not like, this is still not a civil war.
In this picturesque force majeure terms of commissioning of the Turkmenistan - China could move on much more solid reason. She was launched in March, the blockade of Gazprom's gas imports from Turkmenistan. Without going into details of its pricing, it should be noted that the Central Asian press calls one home and is purely technical in the final goal of the blockade - the withdrawal of equipment failure most of the Turkmen field (minimum) or a forced emergency conservation (maximum) because of the pressure drop in the overlapped Gazprom pipelines. If this had happened, time for completion of the Turkmen-Chinese project certainly would have been transferred. However, Turkmenistan was able to cope with the situation. And we've got quite a different result. October 9, before the beginning of gas talks with China, Gazprom the surprise of many completely folded arms, declaring the termination of the blockade of Turkmenistan. And not a word uttered about reaching a compromise in a price dispute, which allegedly gave rise to this blockade. Released a strange paradox - Ashgabat now, as before, does not deny that put Gazprom gas price in 2009 at the entrance of Russia in the amount of $ 375 /1 thousand m3, and is, moreover, that the price of gas at the exit from Russia, Ukraine, to the end of the year fell below $ 200 /1 thousand m3. It turns out, the blockade ended the same, with which it had begun. So what if she really was - a price dispute or all the same, failed attempt to destroy the resource base of the Turkmen-Chinese project?
China card at least in the sleeve, at least in the community cards
Despite this diversity of methods, to which the authorities of Russia have decided to resort, in order to optimize the maximum now completed Russo-Chinese negotiations, we recall the main thing - they also concluded that planned. Signing a document under the glorious name of strategic cooperation agreement did not take place. At first glance, to assess if such a fiasco in isolation from the above events, it promises a tangible optimism of consumers of gas in Ukraine and the EU. Actual document with Beijing is not, and there's no ground under the reasoning that cheap gas at the old price was over, he bought the Chinese. However, if we see the winter's failed blockade of Ukraine and now the collapse of the blockade of Turkmenistan as a single coordinated policies, it begs a different conclusion. Hard to escape the impression that Gazprom is showing in only one in 2009 a maximum of an aggressive assault on the two major partners - the largest buyer, Ukraine, and a leading supplier, Turkmenistan - in the future in 2010 somehow transformed. Likely markets is expected to continue the current eclecticism. After all, if the Kremlin has taken to use the Chinese factor for the pressure on someone, and many suffered along the way, what difference will this factor dutym or real. In this approach, nothing prevents the beginning of price negotiations with China in January 2010 to declare some kind of grand Russo-Chinese mining projects, scaring the Ukraine and the EU, and then take it back.
John Smith
Today the market may look more sold on the eve of bank shares
The main factor supporting Russia's market today should be oil
During today's trading at the domestic players to improve is a good chance to take revenge after last Friday's correction
FGC is investing in the construction of new transmission lines in Yakutia 4.8 billion rubles
Exchange rate of dollars saved without changes - the morning review of cash markets
Kommersant: The National Bank has reached the limit
Oleg Deripaska is suspected of involvement in the case of Russia's mafia in Spain
A gradual slide down the market will continue until the index MICEX will not be reached support at 1250 points
Investors expect to make a bet that the world stock markets: to continue the rally, or on profit-taking