If the reporting season in the United States will be negative, we can wait for traffic to 800-850 items on the MICEX index

Today, during the trading session on the Russian stock market was a serious fall, the most liquid shares have lost around 3-5%. Worse looked shares GMK Norilsk Nickel and other steel companies, including NLMK. Purchases by foreign investors in the maintenance level is not observed. Oil prices got out of the consolidation channel 65,5-72 dollars per barrel and now can be expected to consolidate the oil quotations in the coming days, in the range of 60-65 dollars per barrel. Against this background, the MICEX index, led by shares of the commodity sector, may well reach a level of 900 points, and if the reporting season in the United States will be negative, we can wait for traffic to 800-850 points. In recent months, including a liquid stock, it is difficult to identify the protective paper. The situation with the shares of Polyus Gold and Polymetal is unlikely to be repeated, so as an investment interest in gold has weakened, as compared with the situation a few months earlier. Therefore, the average reduction will be the front, and market participants should review their short-term strategy to play against top-down trend that may well emerge in the coming weeks if the results of American companies for the 2 quarter of 2009 did not bring positive surprises.

All investors in foreign markets is riveted to the beginning of the season reporting in the United States. Already in the coming days, one of the first results are traditionally presented by Alcoa. In relation to the results of 2 quarters of 2008, the current quarter for the company to be extremely weak, although probably on the results of 1 quarter of 2009, some improvement will occur. Remember, the rally in equity markets, as once started due to better than expectations of reports of American companies for 1 st quarter of 2009. Partly, many companies succeeded in the 1 st quarter of this year to get better results with a significant reduction in costs, in a significant reduction in the volume of output. Also, much better than the expectations of the banks reported, largely due to profits earned on the debt markets. Overall, 67% of all companies in the index of S P-500, the actual results were better than expectations. According to current expectations, on average, the companies whose shares are included in the S P-500, profits expected to fall in the 2 quarter of 2009, on the same period last year, more than 30%. This negative is the fact that in the 3 quarter of 2009 is expected to decline by 20%, though, if these predictions come true, it will talk about improving the situation. Within 2 quarters of 2009, companies are unlikely to be able once again to show better results on the expectations from the policy of significant cost reductions, as well as the rate of decline in many sectors has slowed down, forcing some companies to limit the policy to reduce the availability of products /services provided . Permanent increase of unemployment strongly questioned the expectations of significant improvements in the global economy and in the second half of 2009.

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