Last month, consumer prices rose by only 0.5%, which is the minimum value since the beginning of the year. A producer prices in general have gone negative (at 0.7%). This trend is attributable to several factors. First of all, the continuing decline in consumer demand. Last month, the volume of lending to the population continued to blow (in May, they fell a further 5.3 bln. And since the beginning of the year - to 22.8 bn., Or 8.3%).
addition of the funds helped to bind the banking system. Panic Ukrainians poutihli, and they again suffered a cash deposit. In May, the total volume increased by 1.3 billion UAH., The narrowing of markets has forced manufacturers to lower prices for their products. In the five months of this year they increased by only 2.8%, whereas in January-May last year, the figure exceeded 24%.
contributed its share and the increase in agricultural production (due to good harvest last year), resulting in decrease in food prices. The current moderate (at 5,2%) revaluation of the exchange rate hryvnia, which has replaced sharp (38%) devaluation of the fourth quarter of 2008, also have some work to reduce inflationary pressures, - I am sure the leader of the team of advisers Chapter National Bank Valery Litvitsky.
As explained in the Ministry of Economy, for a further rise in prices has affected the so-called import inflation. According to the Ministry, the gap between the average price of Ukraine (for the calculations were taken about 40% of the consumer basket), and imports in February amounted to 54.2 percentage points. Supported the process of inflation and rising oil prices that have resulted in higher cost of fuel and lubricants (to 2.5% versus 1.2% in April) and transport (1%). According to economists, in the coming months, inflationary spiral would be unwinding support services to utilities and price increases in the price of alcohol and tobacco (after increasing the excise tax on these products). But experts say that all these factors are not able to significantly worsen the situation.
real dangers of the activities of the National Bank, have often included the printing press for hidden credit budget. Fulfilling the wishes of the IMF, the deputies have already made changes to the budget law for the current year, the deletion of the article. 84, requiring the NBU automatically buy government bonds in the government within three days from the receipt of buyout offers from banks.
Nevertheless department Vladimir Stelmakh continues regularly acquire securities of the state. According to the NBU on January 5 in his briefcase were OVDP in the amount of just over 8.5 bln., But on June 1 - almost 23,9 billion UAH. Information on the extent of the NBU OVDP in the property shows that the regulator in the first three months of the year printed 4.4 billion UAH. But most of that amount, 3.3 billion UAH., According to our estimates, has gone on loan Naftogaz and does not suffer the threat of rising inflation , - said the head of analytics department of Astrum Investment Management Yury Belinsky.
As reported by the Ministry of Finance on June 1, from the placement OVDP received 7,596 bn. And in terms of underperformance Plan for collecting taxes more and more funds went to cover the budget deficit, which has a direct impact on the inflationary process. By the way, recently made the first alarming bells: in the last month for the second time in thecurrent year has increased the money supply (by 0.7%) and volume of funds traded in the cash market (1,5%).
Worst of all, that the Cabinet is not just finance the current social obligations, but also improves their own. For example, in the fiscal deficit at the end of May, the Government has increased by 50% the salaries of managers and employees apparatus rural and village councils. Last week, Cabinet approved a strategy for streamlining the system of providing benefits to certain categories of citizens until 2012. The decision of the Government is only a desire to show the IMF that it meets the requirements of the fund. In the context of approaching elections, the Government will not initiate a reduction.
On the contrary, this year should expect the new legislative initiatives aimed at the introduction of additional benefits, - I am sure an economist Alexei Blinov. And because of the substantial improvement in the situation of filling the budget (in light of the continuing recession) does not have to say, money for flirting with electorate, again, will be printed. Printing press NBU harder work force need to maintain the banking system.
projected financiers, in the office this month, Vladimir Stelmakh can increase the volume of refinancing the Trust to 5.7 billion - 7 bln. (compared to 2.83 bln. in May). Part of these funds will, again, for lending Naftogaz (3.8 bln.) For calculations with Gazprom, but the rest goes through the banking system in free circulation, provoking another round of inflation. Escape from an unpredictable increase in prices could cash the third tranche of the IMF.
Where will the money come from
empty pockets - this is the main problem of the economy. There is no money in the banking sector, in industries, companies. To eliminate the empty pockets, is an urgent need to address the structural imbalance between the cash and marketable weight, between production and consumption, between savings and investment, said Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Valery Muntiyan.
First, you can correct the imbalance by increasing the level of monetization of up to 50-70% of GDP. Secondly, it is necessary to establish conditions under which the profitability of the enterprises will be higher than rates on loans, otherwise they will be funded at a loss . Third, should reduce the refinancing rate at least twice. The optimal rate should not exceed 5-6%, as did China and India. In this case, investments will be channeled to the real sector of the economy. Fourthly, the ratio of total bank assets system-to-GDP ratio should correspond to 80-100% of GDP. Timing of attracting and placing funds - loans and deposits - must be equal. In the domestic banking system, these proportions violated, - said Valery Muntiyan.
In this regard, he also noted that if more than a quarter of bank resources is formed through the interbank market, the bulk of the banks failed to perform its function of credit institutions, and may provoke a domino effect. In addition, the rapid growth of portfolio investment - an artificial warming of the market for bulk purchase and subsequent sale of shares of Ukrainian issuers.
Tatiana Smetanina
Course dollar saved without changes - a daily review of the cash markets
Rada intends to simplify the procedure for obtaining rights to land
Market shares in anticipation of a turn
European stock indexes rising 3rd straight day
From 5 to 12 June in the primary market of Kiev real estate prices for one-room apartments fell by 2,2%
Analysis - Results of the day
From 5 to June 12, the lease rates on one-room apartments of Kiev declined to 5.3%
The merger of depository contest
From 5 to 12 June in the secondary market prices of real estate of Kiev for one-room apartments dropped to 1.7%
Inflation hold for a while
Last month, consumer prices rose by only 0.5%, which is the minimum value since the beginning of the year. A producer prices in general have gone negative (at 0.7%). This trend is attributable to several factors. First of all, the continuing decline in consumer demand. Last month, the volume of lending to the population continued to blow (in May, they fell a further 5.3 bln. And since the beginning of the year - to 22.8 bn., Or 8.3%).
addition of the funds helped to bind the banking system. Panic Ukrainians poutihli, and they again suffered a cash deposit. In May, the total volume increased by 1.3 billion UAH., The narrowing of markets has forced manufacturers to lower prices for their products. In the five months of this year they increased by only 2.8%, whereas in January-May last year, the figure exceeded 24%.
contributed its share and the increase in agricultural production (due to good harvest last year), resulting in decrease in food prices. The current moderate (at 5,2%) revaluation of the exchange rate hryvnia, which has replaced sharp (38%) devaluation of the fourth quarter of 2008, also have some work to reduce inflationary pressures, - I am sure the leader of the team of advisers Chapter National Bank Valery Litvitsky.
As explained in the Ministry of Economy, for a further rise in prices has affected the so-called import inflation. According to the Ministry, the gap between the average price of Ukraine (for the calculations were taken about 40% of the consumer basket), and imports in February amounted to 54.2 percentage points. Supported the process of inflation and rising oil prices that have resulted in higher cost of fuel and lubricants (to 2.5% versus 1.2% in April) and transport (1%). According to economists, in the coming months, inflationary spiral would be unwinding support services to utilities and price increases in the price of alcohol and tobacco (after increasing the excise tax on these products). But experts say that all these factors are not able to significantly worsen the situation.
real dangers of the activities of the National Bank, have often included the printing press for hidden credit budget. Fulfilling the wishes of the IMF, the deputies have already made changes to the budget law for the current year, the deletion of the article. 84, requiring the NBU automatically buy government bonds in the government within three days from the receipt of buyout offers from banks.
Nevertheless department Vladimir Stelmakh continues regularly acquire securities of the state. According to the NBU on January 5 in his briefcase were OVDP in the amount of just over 8.5 bln., But on June 1 - almost 23,9 billion UAH. Information on the extent of the NBU OVDP in the property shows that the regulator in the first three months of the year printed 4.4 billion UAH. But most of that amount, 3.3 billion UAH., According to our estimates, has gone on loan Naftogaz and does not suffer the threat of rising inflation , - said the head of analytics department of Astrum Investment Management Yury Belinsky.
As reported by the Ministry of Finance on June 1, from the placement OVDP received 7,596 bn. And in terms of underperformance Plan for collecting taxes more and more funds went to cover the budget deficit, which has a direct impact on the inflationary process. By the way, recently made the first alarming bells: in the last month for the second time in thecurrent year has increased the money supply (by 0.7%) and volume of funds traded in the cash market (1,5%).
Worst of all, that the Cabinet is not just finance the current social obligations, but also improves their own. For example, in the fiscal deficit at the end of May, the Government has increased by 50% the salaries of managers and employees apparatus rural and village councils. Last week, Cabinet approved a strategy for streamlining the system of providing benefits to certain categories of citizens until 2012. The decision of the Government is only a desire to show the IMF that it meets the requirements of the fund. In the context of approaching elections, the Government will not initiate a reduction.
On the contrary, this year should expect the new legislative initiatives aimed at the introduction of additional benefits, - I am sure an economist Alexei Blinov. And because of the substantial improvement in the situation of filling the budget (in light of the continuing recession) does not have to say, money for flirting with electorate, again, will be printed. Printing press NBU harder work force need to maintain the banking system.
projected financiers, in the office this month, Vladimir Stelmakh can increase the volume of refinancing the Trust to 5.7 billion - 7 bln. (compared to 2.83 bln. in May). Part of these funds will, again, for lending Naftogaz (3.8 bln.) For calculations with Gazprom, but the rest goes through the banking system in free circulation, provoking another round of inflation. Escape from an unpredictable increase in prices could cash the third tranche of the IMF.
Where will the money come from
empty pockets - this is the main problem of the economy. There is no money in the banking sector, in industries, companies. To eliminate the empty pockets, is an urgent need to address the structural imbalance between the cash and marketable weight, between production and consumption, between savings and investment, said Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine Valery Muntiyan.
First, you can correct the imbalance by increasing the level of monetization of up to 50-70% of GDP. Secondly, it is necessary to establish conditions under which the profitability of the enterprises will be higher than rates on loans, otherwise they will be funded at a loss . Third, should reduce the refinancing rate at least twice. The optimal rate should not exceed 5-6%, as did China and India. In this case, investments will be channeled to the real sector of the economy. Fourthly, the ratio of total bank assets system-to-GDP ratio should correspond to 80-100% of GDP. Timing of attracting and placing funds - loans and deposits - must be equal. In the domestic banking system, these proportions violated, - said Valery Muntiyan.
In this regard, he also noted that if more than a quarter of bank resources is formed through the interbank market, the bulk of the banks failed to perform its function of credit institutions, and may provoke a domino effect. In addition, the rapid growth of portfolio investment - an artificial warming of the market for bulk purchase and subsequent sale of shares of Ukrainian issuers.
Tatiana Smetanina
Course dollar saved without changes - a daily review of the cash markets
Rada intends to simplify the procedure for obtaining rights to land
Market shares in anticipation of a turn
European stock indexes rising 3rd straight day
From 5 to 12 June in the primary market of Kiev real estate prices for one-room apartments fell by 2,2%
Analysis - Results of the day
From 5 to June 12, the lease rates on one-room apartments of Kiev declined to 5.3%
The merger of depository contest
From 5 to 12 June in the secondary market prices of real estate of Kiev for one-room apartments dropped to 1.7%