Ukraine is not the first month of living in the election struggle. But only as of today, the campaign moves to the official track. Behind the free flight of fantasy candidates ahead of the harsh regimented weekdays. And the willingness of all parties will be checked only battle.
Ready Room X
After several months of underground election fever has finally country came close to the established law of the updated 90-day point of reference the official campaign. As we approach the cherished day of all the cogs of the state machine cheerfully warn about the willingness to number one.
For example, the Minister of Justice in advance reminded parties and blocs, who plan to become the subjects of the electoral process (to nominate their candidates), which is October 19 they will be able to start the necessary procedure for verification of documents. Approximately the same optimistic and members of the Central Election Commission, on whose shoulders will bear most of the problems coming months. In any case, the CEC has long been defined and the necessary amount of money, and schedule events, and the priority measures. But to call the situation is absolutely cloudless still difficult.
shortly CEC may encounter many difficulties. Experience from previous years raises fears of systematic backlog of major events (including reducing the duration of the campaign in 2009-2010, the standard organizational confusion can take, and large scale) or, for example, punitive nefinansirovaniya. But one of the main problems in the ear for a long time, and still have time to make, can, and do not allow it, but at least minimized.
The weakest point of the CEC before the start of official race (however, and after him, apparently, too) is the state of the Uniform state register of voters. Concerns about the readiness list all to the day of presidential elections and politicians and experts have long been expressed, but with September 2009 concerns the issue started going wild. Objective reasons for this more than enough.
According to the Committee of Voters of Ukraine the state registry is very lamentable. Initial refinement of voters register found the low quality of the roster. According to various estimates, the degree of inaccuracy in the registry is from 10% to 30%, - told a month before, a visual signal, the head of KIA Alexander Chernenko. Since then, law enforcement agencies regularly encouraged by public statements about another identified portions of dead souls or fixed eighteen, but the leadership does not tire of the CEC to certify that he would try to have time with revisions in time.
Nevertheless, clarifying the situation remains dire: According to the newspaper The Mirror of the Week in selected areas of progress in the transformation registryin the order of one-half percent. The head of the CEC does not exclude the possibility that the hype around the state list of voters may have an additional technological in nature. I do not really believe that someone is an irresistible desire to disrupt the elections. And I doubt that there is a possibility. Accustom the public to the fact that the roster is not perfect, so at the right time voters believe in the possibility of abuse and sympathized with the attempt to challenge the outcome of elections , - says Vladimir Shapoval. An indirect confirmation of this point of view if they wish can serve as a loud public concern for many politicians (especially zealous Party of Regions, for example, through statements by the former head of the CEC Sergey Kivalov) that the current roster we can scarcely expect to successfully combat fraud.
Another reason to remember for future violations of the political elite is the duty and the uncertainty surrounding the new law on elections. After the people's representatives have overcome a presidential veto, and Volodymyr Lytvyn made the new edition of start in life, the presidential campaign has lived on the updated rules, and reducing its time - an example. But the decision of MPs to be, if not appealed, then at least discussion. In any case, its say on the two appeals (the head of state and 48 of the People's Deputy) can still say the constitutional judges.
situation, when the beginning of the presidential campaign is still impossible to determine for sure, on what rules it will be, in theory looks extremely doubtful. In practice, a wide range of stakeholders (including the Minister of Justice, the head of KSU and head of the CEC) does not get tired attest: even if the Constitutional Court recognizes the individual become a stumbling block is not relevant to the Basic Law, the election will be held - just work will return the previous norm. Black list, according to rumors, may prove to be quite extensive.
first wave of anger directed at the president's story, suggesting that overseas can vote only Koreans who are registered at the Consulate, and the rule which transfers the right to cancel the registration of the candidate CEC without involvement of the courts.
Others who did not give rise to optimism, and moments associated with the elimination of the use of absentee ballots, and the large size entry fee to the club of candidates, and does not envisage the end of opportunity to make changes in the voter lists on election day, and with the idea of two days dealing with complaints by the courts … And, although the authors of the new law insist that all their innovations are aimed at countering falsification, that view is not all agree. Of course, the final point in the dispute put the Constitutional Court, but say for certain when it will be, and how the final version may be different rules of the game from the alleged, yet difficult. But the fact that the establishment of a healthy psychological climate launch a campaign this situation does not help — obvious.
training games
While
over Central Election Commission, overly inquisitive politicians and judges of the constitutional responsibility of the clouds are gathering for the chaos in the beginning of official stage, potential candidates are trying to use the situation of uncertainty as effectively as possible. Results from all different, but the players certainly are trying.
As it turned out, shortening the campaign has been a gift not only for the state budget (originally the idea was served just under this sauce), but also to determine in advance of the races. In any case, skillful interpretation of the concept of social advertising has allowed many politicians to secure a large-scale presence in television and radio, and in particular, on the streets. Carefully skirting the legislative restrictions, the individual falstartery already managed to acquaint the audience with the second and even third wave of propaganda creativity. True, expanse, it seems, is coming to an end.
first president asked the Prosecutor General's Office to attend to the question of legality of the early initiatives. And then in the CEC 16 October reminded that with the official start of the current advertising campaign for pluralism will take some time in the past. Nineteen October hosted campaigning on media and outdoor advertising in the media is already illegal. All the billboards and other media - commercials on television, the materials in the print media - should be lifted, - said the CEC member Michael Ohendovsky. Thus, before the candidates, advertisers will not be officially registered, voters can take a break from the influx of predominantly visual information socio-political nature.
addition to advertising vents, including and image campaigns goals, some politicians used safely and legislative inconsistencies. For example, Anatoly Gritsenko able to resolve the difficulties with registration fees increased to two and a half million hryvnia, with widely publicized campaign to attract popular support. The principle of Every little helps - a candidate for bail, acquitted itself fully. And the required amount was collected before the start of the campaign, and support the people the first no-go proved not a word, and deed. A similar scenario is likely, and ready to win back-chief of Regions.
However, with the difference that in support of Viktor Yanukovych, whose headquarters is hardly experiencing serious financial difficulties, do not accumulate money and signatures. The new version of the law on presidential elections can not collect signatures of potential voters. But reinsured never out of place: the legal situation may change (though hardly KSU wholesale send legislation for revision), and the breadth of popular support is demonstrated.
approximately the same path and went to Yulia Tymoshenko. May be premature to collect signatures fellow Premier still has not bothered, but the rejection of advertising breadth of public support, does not seem relevant. For this reason, the flow of upbeat news was diluted standard hello from the Soviet past: The intellectuals in Kiev calls to unite around Tymoshenko, Kharkiv intellectuals supported Timoshenko, Nicholas intellectuals called for support for Tymoshenko - all as the best of times …
But mostly, and affordable for the majority of more or less important candidates, simulator is still a race rankings. The proven method is not directly dependent on the uncertain political situation, and at this stage is triggered Hurray. Even if voters suddenly interested to know how many percent of Yanukovich ahead of Tymoshenko as points lost Yatsenyuk and who is above - Simonenko or Litvin - this information will be helpfully to indicate this to his attention. So much so helpfully, that some experts believe the popularity of the publication of tables also a kind of technology - prepare public opinion to deliberately fraudulent.
While the promise of reconciliation and the results obtained have to wait another three months, different research companies are encouraged by different numbers. It should be noted that in general, their versions differ not too globally. Regardless of the company conducting the survey, the difference in popularity between the main opposition and the prime minister is estimated at 10-11 percent.
According to three different public opinion research, published in early October, the result of Viktor Yanukovych varies between 26,8 and 30,2 percent, and Yulia Tymoshenko - between 15.6 and 19 percent (while maintaining the above ratio.) Prosazhivanie rating of the head of government experts explain the economic situation and stability of the position of shadow prime minister - the constancy of its electorate. But in the third issue in the presidential race any significant problems. Previously Arseniy Yatsenyuk practically breathed in the back Yulia Tymoshenko, the last time he lost in the middle third of the positions, and now his approval rating ranges from 8,2 to 9,3 percent.
Such decrease political scientists and sociologists tend to explain to one and the same pattern: early onset of the campaign slogans inexpressiveness plus not too successful repositioning of the intellectual in the strong arm disoriented while only a significant number of sympathizers. And, unlike the other candidates (including, for example, even Peter Simonenko and stability, rotating in the region of 4 per cent popularity, or Viktor Yushchenko with his 2-3 per cent support), significant supply of nuclear electorate Arseny Petrovich still has no … However, in such a reduction in his entourage sees strangers in the practice of dirty technologies.
Politicians have long been ready to hear the pistol shot, which will mark the beginning of the election campaign. The staffs are deployed and campaign strategy prepared, technology perfected, dirt flowing … Unfortunately, the whole system the same degree of Pioneers of consciousness is no different, but she still has time to rectify the situation. Should be remembered that its contribution to the smearing the electoral mechanism can contribute to each voter. Just check his name on the list - and has already become less chaotic.
Xenia Sokółka
With oil prices expected $ 78 goes down in Russia market may turn into lateral movement
Speculative recommendation on shares of Polyus Gold, Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil and VTB
Fitch Affirms LUKOIL-level BBB-, outlook Stable
Cars continue to rise
Name block
Companies are waiting for the recession and devaluation
Companies feel the need to borrow in the future, but there are going to do without them …
Deposits of legal entities - Market Overview
Deposit for private individuals - Market Overview
For the sustainability of the market of Russia will continue to need support from the black gold
It began …
Ukraine is not the first month of living in pre-election campaign …
Ukraine is not the first month of living in the election struggle. But only as of today, the campaign moves to the official track. Behind the free flight of fantasy candidates ahead of the harsh regimented weekdays. And the willingness of all parties will be checked only battle.
Ready Room X
After several months of underground election fever has finally country came close to the established law of the updated 90-day point of reference the official campaign. As we approach the cherished day of all the cogs of the state machine cheerfully warn about the willingness to number one.
For example, the Minister of Justice in advance reminded parties and blocs, who plan to become the subjects of the electoral process (to nominate their candidates), which is October 19 they will be able to start the necessary procedure for verification of documents. Approximately the same optimistic and members of the Central Election Commission, on whose shoulders will bear most of the problems coming months. In any case, the CEC has long been defined and the necessary amount of money, and schedule events, and the priority measures. But to call the situation is absolutely cloudless still difficult.
shortly CEC may encounter many difficulties. Experience from previous years raises fears of systematic backlog of major events (including reducing the duration of the campaign in 2009-2010, the standard organizational confusion can take, and large scale) or, for example, punitive nefinansirovaniya. But one of the main problems in the ear for a long time, and still have time to make, can, and do not allow it, but at least minimized.
The weakest point of the CEC before the start of official race (however, and after him, apparently, too) is the state of the Uniform state register of voters. Concerns about the readiness list all to the day of presidential elections and politicians and experts have long been expressed, but with September 2009 concerns the issue started going wild. Objective reasons for this more than enough.
According to the Committee of Voters of Ukraine the state registry is very lamentable. Initial refinement of voters register found the low quality of the roster. According to various estimates, the degree of inaccuracy in the registry is from 10% to 30%, - told a month before, a visual signal, the head of KIA Alexander Chernenko. Since then, law enforcement agencies regularly encouraged by public statements about another identified portions of dead souls or fixed eighteen, but the leadership does not tire of the CEC to certify that he would try to have time with revisions in time.
Nevertheless, clarifying the situation remains dire: According to the newspaper The Mirror of the Week in selected areas of progress in the transformation registryin the order of one-half percent. The head of the CEC does not exclude the possibility that the hype around the state list of voters may have an additional technological in nature. I do not really believe that someone is an irresistible desire to disrupt the elections. And I doubt that there is a possibility. Accustom the public to the fact that the roster is not perfect, so at the right time voters believe in the possibility of abuse and sympathized with the attempt to challenge the outcome of elections , - says Vladimir Shapoval. An indirect confirmation of this point of view if they wish can serve as a loud public concern for many politicians (especially zealous Party of Regions, for example, through statements by the former head of the CEC Sergey Kivalov) that the current roster we can scarcely expect to successfully combat fraud.
Another reason to remember for future violations of the political elite is the duty and the uncertainty surrounding the new law on elections. After the people's representatives have overcome a presidential veto, and Volodymyr Lytvyn made the new edition of start in life, the presidential campaign has lived on the updated rules, and reducing its time - an example. But the decision of MPs to be, if not appealed, then at least discussion. In any case, its say on the two appeals (the head of state and 48 of the People's Deputy) can still say the constitutional judges.
situation, when the beginning of the presidential campaign is still impossible to determine for sure, on what rules it will be, in theory looks extremely doubtful. In practice, a wide range of stakeholders (including the Minister of Justice, the head of KSU and head of the CEC) does not get tired attest: even if the Constitutional Court recognizes the individual become a stumbling block is not relevant to the Basic Law, the election will be held - just work will return the previous norm. Black list, according to rumors, may prove to be quite extensive.
first wave of anger directed at the president's story, suggesting that overseas can vote only Koreans who are registered at the Consulate, and the rule which transfers the right to cancel the registration of the candidate CEC without involvement of the courts.
Others who did not give rise to optimism, and moments associated with the elimination of the use of absentee ballots, and the large size entry fee to the club of candidates, and does not envisage the end of opportunity to make changes in the voter lists on election day, and with the idea of two days dealing with complaints by the courts … And, although the authors of the new law insist that all their innovations are aimed at countering falsification, that view is not all agree. Of course, the final point in the dispute put the Constitutional Court, but say for certain when it will be, and how the final version may be different rules of the game from the alleged, yet difficult. But the fact that the establishment of a healthy psychological climate launch a campaign this situation does not help — obvious.
training games
While
over Central Election Commission, overly inquisitive politicians and judges of the constitutional responsibility of the clouds are gathering for the chaos in the beginning of official stage, potential candidates are trying to use the situation of uncertainty as effectively as possible. Results from all different, but the players certainly are trying.
As it turned out, shortening the campaign has been a gift not only for the state budget (originally the idea was served just under this sauce), but also to determine in advance of the races. In any case, skillful interpretation of the concept of social advertising has allowed many politicians to secure a large-scale presence in television and radio, and in particular, on the streets. Carefully skirting the legislative restrictions, the individual falstartery already managed to acquaint the audience with the second and even third wave of propaganda creativity. True, expanse, it seems, is coming to an end.
first president asked the Prosecutor General's Office to attend to the question of legality of the early initiatives. And then in the CEC 16 October reminded that with the official start of the current advertising campaign for pluralism will take some time in the past. Nineteen October hosted campaigning on media and outdoor advertising in the media is already illegal. All the billboards and other media - commercials on television, the materials in the print media - should be lifted, - said the CEC member Michael Ohendovsky. Thus, before the candidates, advertisers will not be officially registered, voters can take a break from the influx of predominantly visual information socio-political nature.
addition to advertising vents, including and image campaigns goals, some politicians used safely and legislative inconsistencies. For example, Anatoly Gritsenko able to resolve the difficulties with registration fees increased to two and a half million hryvnia, with widely publicized campaign to attract popular support. The principle of Every little helps - a candidate for bail, acquitted itself fully. And the required amount was collected before the start of the campaign, and support the people the first no-go proved not a word, and deed. A similar scenario is likely, and ready to win back-chief of Regions.
However, with the difference that in support of Viktor Yanukovych, whose headquarters is hardly experiencing serious financial difficulties, do not accumulate money and signatures. The new version of the law on presidential elections can not collect signatures of potential voters. But reinsured never out of place: the legal situation may change (though hardly KSU wholesale send legislation for revision), and the breadth of popular support is demonstrated.
approximately the same path and went to Yulia Tymoshenko. May be premature to collect signatures fellow Premier still has not bothered, but the rejection of advertising breadth of public support, does not seem relevant. For this reason, the flow of upbeat news was diluted standard hello from the Soviet past: The intellectuals in Kiev calls to unite around Tymoshenko, Kharkiv intellectuals supported Timoshenko, Nicholas intellectuals called for support for Tymoshenko - all as the best of times …
But mostly, and affordable for the majority of more or less important candidates, simulator is still a race rankings. The proven method is not directly dependent on the uncertain political situation, and at this stage is triggered Hurray. Even if voters suddenly interested to know how many percent of Yanukovich ahead of Tymoshenko as points lost Yatsenyuk and who is above - Simonenko or Litvin - this information will be helpfully to indicate this to his attention. So much so helpfully, that some experts believe the popularity of the publication of tables also a kind of technology - prepare public opinion to deliberately fraudulent.
While the promise of reconciliation and the results obtained have to wait another three months, different research companies are encouraged by different numbers. It should be noted that in general, their versions differ not too globally. Regardless of the company conducting the survey, the difference in popularity between the main opposition and the prime minister is estimated at 10-11 percent.
According to three different public opinion research, published in early October, the result of Viktor Yanukovych varies between 26,8 and 30,2 percent, and Yulia Tymoshenko - between 15.6 and 19 percent (while maintaining the above ratio.) Prosazhivanie rating of the head of government experts explain the economic situation and stability of the position of shadow prime minister - the constancy of its electorate. But in the third issue in the presidential race any significant problems. Previously Arseniy Yatsenyuk practically breathed in the back Yulia Tymoshenko, the last time he lost in the middle third of the positions, and now his approval rating ranges from 8,2 to 9,3 percent.
Such decrease political scientists and sociologists tend to explain to one and the same pattern: early onset of the campaign slogans inexpressiveness plus not too successful repositioning of the intellectual in the strong arm disoriented while only a significant number of sympathizers. And, unlike the other candidates (including, for example, even Peter Simonenko and stability, rotating in the region of 4 per cent popularity, or Viktor Yushchenko with his 2-3 per cent support), significant supply of nuclear electorate Arseny Petrovich still has no … However, in such a reduction in his entourage sees strangers in the practice of dirty technologies.
Politicians have long been ready to hear the pistol shot, which will mark the beginning of the election campaign. The staffs are deployed and campaign strategy prepared, technology perfected, dirt flowing … Unfortunately, the whole system the same degree of Pioneers of consciousness is no different, but she still has time to rectify the situation. Should be remembered that its contribution to the smearing the electoral mechanism can contribute to each voter. Just check his name on the list - and has already become less chaotic.
Xenia Sokółka
With oil prices expected $ 78 goes down in Russia market may turn into lateral movement
Speculative recommendation on shares of Polyus Gold, Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil and VTB
Fitch Affirms LUKOIL-level BBB-, outlook Stable
Cars continue to rise
Name block
Companies are waiting for the recession and devaluation
Companies feel the need to borrow in the future, but there are going to do without them …
Deposits of legal entities - Market Overview
Deposit for private individuals - Market Overview
For the sustainability of the market of Russia will continue to need support from the black gold