Bidders on the equity market on Thursday was more unanimous than before, in striving to rewrite the record from the beginning of the year.
RTS index soared by 3.7% to 1334.94 points, MICEX - to 4.27% to 1278.53 points. Trading volumes were again higher than average values.
What have been waiting for all the world markets, has come to pass. Season quarterly reporting in the United States started, with a very rosy for the optimists. Higher compared with the expectations of the value of net income and earnings per share for the III quarter of Alcoa, the first company that is included in the calculation of the index DJIA, engendered a new wave of euphoria, which led to surrender the remaining skeptics. At Postmarket capitalization of aluminum giant, despite the increase earlier in the main trading mode, increased by 5.7%, which made the U.S. index futures on the following day in certain plus. The dollar began to sell again, and released funds to send in risky assets. Oil prices, which threatened to strengthen the positions of the bears, as well as other raw materials began to rise in price, recovering after a moderately negative data on the stocks of the Ministry of Energy, USA. The only trump card, which was in the repertoire, the players, wary related to what is happening in the market, thus, has lost its relevance. And the signal, which was formed on the basis of the environment as a potential reversal candles tombstone on the market as a whole, just before the opening was small chance to come true.
That's what happened. Buyers do not become discouraged by the fact that the opening took place with a gap up and after only a minute after the start of trading exceeded cherished the bar in 1241 an item on the MICEX, the outcome of the struggle that defined the prospects for Russia's stock market for the foreseeable future. Unlike trading on Wednesday, this time the buyers had more reason to be aggressive, so by leaps and bounds, she began to build the advantage of distancing the stock indicator of the threat of destruction of their plans.
The looming
upside for technical reasons for Russia's actions after the MICEX index was launched height of the flag in which the market was in the previous two and a half weeks, and the passage of 50% attained a certain level of correction of a fall from highs May last began to acquire a more realistic shape, which was seen by many. To find justification for relying on foundations have emerged on Thursday commentaries Mark Mobius. The head of Templeton Asset Management said that in the event of further increases in money supply in the world, especially the growth will be maintained on the emerging markets, among which, he said, and Russia's stock market, which can benefit to the same from a possible rise in oil prices.
Macroeconomic developments also not forced to change dominated by the desire to buy. The initiative results of Alcoa for III quarter was supported by PepsiCo and Marriott International. The published sales figures of U.S. retailers were unexpectedly strong, which gave hope that the situation with the consumer sector has begun to straighten out. Enhanced the effect of weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits (541 000, forecast: 540 000, before. 551 000), which fell to the lowest level since January. Continue to reduce stocks of goods at the wholesale stores (-1.3% m /m, the forecast -1% m /m), which increases the groundwork to revitalize the manufacturing sector.
meetings held monetary authorities of Great Britain and the eurozone have also contributed to higher prices in world commodity and stock markets. Bank of England (0.5%) and ECB (1%) as expected left interest rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the fact that accompany these decisions was in favor of the bulls. Thus, the Bank of England did not change the size of the program quantitative easing, the economy (175 billion pounds), leaving him at the same level in the projections. However, the fact that in November, has already allocated funds will be spent, makes, according to former representative of the Central Bank John Giwa, the regulator to consider the possibility of increasing their limit. Jean-ClaudeTrichet, the head of the ECB, in turn, made it clear to market participants that, despite signs of improvement in the economy, there is no assurance that recovery will be sustainable, so a quick transition to the exit strategy to expect from him is not worth it. Favorable situation with inflation can adhere to this policy and yet nothing changed. With regard to the prevailing rates in the Forex market, Mr. Trichet noted that their erratic movement makes it difficult to restore the real economy, citing that the policy of strong dollar is important, in his opinion. Nevertheless, the absence of passage that are reinforced euro was causing him concern, maintained the existing status quo in the market, characterized by the gradual weakening of the dollar to the recent lows.
The weakness of the U.S. dollar, in turn, helped to boost interest in Russia's actions on two channels. The first - is to continue strengthening of the ruble, which increases profits from operations to non-residents. On Thursday, the ruble, on the eve released overseas in 30 rubles to the dollar, has already reached a mark of 29.56 rubles. And the value of currency basket has dropped to 35.93 rubles. Second - a rise in prices for raw materials. If oil prices on the sort of WTI at the time of the activity on the equity market, only to recover some losses after a moderately negative data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products, in metals, both industrial and precious, there was a sure increase in quotes. Gold prices on Thursday reached the next record levels. Thus, on Thursday the situation entirely favored buyers, the result of which was the closing on a peak day.
Unsure of price fluctuations for oil near the mark in $ 70/barr. on the sort of WTI has not prevented the growth of capitalization of the oil and gas sector of the market (Micex OG 4.11%). The most interesting new paper called Gazprom Neft (5.98%), which can enter into the share capital of the Pavlodar refinery. Lukoil's shares went up by 5.24% on news of the likely entry into the draft Iraqi oil West Qurna-1, while fears of market participants are not caused speculation that ConocoPhillips, which has to balance a 20% package of Lukoil, the program sale of assets may partially get rid of it. Also unsuccessful was the trip CEO Vagit Alikperova to Ukraine, which was planned to come to a mutually beneficial solution for idle now the Odessa refinery. Gazprom's shares (2.68%) once again looked worse than industry rivals and the market as a whole, possibly due to the fact that E. ON is going to agree with the gas monopoly to postpone purchases of gas contracts.
Financial Sector (Micex FNL 4.31%): Sberbank (obyk. 6.44%, scion. 6.1%), VTB (7.19%) as less recovered with minimal marks the beginning of the year was at the center of attention of buyers. Contributed to this and the expectations of favorable figures in the upcoming reports of American banks.
In the steel sector were leading MMC Norilsk Nickel (4.86%) in the light of the favorable report of Alcoa, as well as shares of miners following the agreement reached Raspadskaya and Mechel with FAS and metallurgists to raise coal prices in the IV quarter. Analysts of Deutsche bank then raised their target for these shares. Shares Raspadskaya went up by 6.27%, Belon at 4.2%. Mechel shares (1.81%) lost much of intraday achievements. The same story befallen and Polyus Gold shares (1.52%) because of the rollback price of yellow metal in the evening. Shares Steelworkers: CMI (0.86%), NLMK (1.06%), Severstal (1.51%) looked relatively weak.
look at today's market:
The American stock market (SP 500 0.75%) are a step closer to the maximum values from the beginning of the year. Higher compared with the expectations of the value of net income per share and revenues for the III quarter of Alcoa, the first company that is included in the calculation of the index DJIA, confirmed the validity of the bull intentions. Do not disappoint the intermediate results of Marriott International and PepsiCo. Strengthened existing optimism in the market as a sizeable reduction in applications for unemployment benefits and encouraging monthly sales of retailers. Support came also from senior officials. For example, U.S. Treasury Timothy Geithner said that the housing market is visible to the naked eye shows signs of improvement, and the Speaker of Congress, Nancy Pelosi confirmed rumors that the legislators are going to primary home buyers to extend the tax credits. Representative of the Federal Reserve Jeffrey Leker, in turn, noted that the risk of producing second-bottom in the economy in recent years has declined significantly. Development of the rally as part of the day was suspended after an auction on placement of fresh 30-year bonds, for which demand was not very high. Futures on U.S. indexes on Friday fluctuate near the zero mark.
Asian stock indices (Nikkei 225 1.49%, Hang Seng 0.17%, Shanghai Composite 3.56%, BSE 30 -0.22%) in most of its final week in high spirits, having played stream of favorable news that occurred the previous day. Positive sentiment in the Japanese stock market did not appear hindered rather weak data on order in engineering. Chinese stock market after the holidays wins back world trends.
After trading in the United States was made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said his department's readiness to begin tightening monetary policy when there will be no doubt that the situation in the economy improves. This comment was the background for the non-aggressive profit-taking on the international currency market, where the euro is not able to go abroad to 1.48 against the dollar. This in turn is pushing for similar actions of traders and commodity markets. Oil prices (WTI $ 71.2/barr.), In contrast to the price of industrial and precious metals have a good safety margin compared with the moment to close Russia's stock market.
On Friday, Russia's stock market will open with a moderate gepom up. On the morning of the residual demand can be after some time run out, after which the market could go into relaxation mode after the shock of growth the previous sessions. Temperate profit-taking in addition to technical factors will contribute to the daytime trend likely to continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar and expectations of an increase in trade deficit in the U.S. (16-30). Among other statistics can be interesting data on the dynamics of prices in the manufacturing sector of the UK (12-30). Significant quarterly reports today are not expected. More vulnerable position today may be in shares of banks, better than the market due to high opening stocks may look like Oil and Gas Industry. After fixing above 1,241 points on the MICEX index closed path, at least, to 1320 points, the velocity of which will depend on the prevailing news background. More upbeat is the goal of 1400 points, the next Fibonacci level from falling from record highs in May of last year.
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Ukrprombank: The End of History
History Ukrprombank finally draws to a close …
Alcoa was not enough
The level of support for fixed-term contract on RTS index performance in December for today - 134 000 points
Toward the end of the session on Russia's market is possible profit-taking before the weekend
List of papers that came up from the side views, which had previously been shares VTB and Rosneft, yesterday marked increase
The fundamental situation in the world market now does not seem much better than the situation two months ago
Today's trading in the United States can show how Americans believe in the continued growth and economic recovery
Since last week, Russia's market has grown by 130 points on the MICEX index, which will lead to sales of securities, purchased before
The main fundamental factors of the October rally in general played, remain only speculative reasons
More vulnerable position today may be in shares of banks, may look better than the market shares of oil and gas segment
Bidders on the equity market on Thursday was more unanimous than before, in striving to rewrite the record from the beginning of the year.
RTS index soared by 3.7% to 1334.94 points, MICEX - to 4.27% to 1278.53 points. Trading volumes were again higher than average values.
What have been waiting for all the world markets, has come to pass. Season quarterly reporting in the United States started, with a very rosy for the optimists. Higher compared with the expectations of the value of net income and earnings per share for the III quarter of Alcoa, the first company that is included in the calculation of the index DJIA, engendered a new wave of euphoria, which led to surrender the remaining skeptics. At Postmarket capitalization of aluminum giant, despite the increase earlier in the main trading mode, increased by 5.7%, which made the U.S. index futures on the following day in certain plus. The dollar began to sell again, and released funds to send in risky assets. Oil prices, which threatened to strengthen the positions of the bears, as well as other raw materials began to rise in price, recovering after a moderately negative data on the stocks of the Ministry of Energy, USA. The only trump card, which was in the repertoire, the players, wary related to what is happening in the market, thus, has lost its relevance. And the signal, which was formed on the basis of the environment as a potential reversal candles tombstone on the market as a whole, just before the opening was small chance to come true.
That's what happened. Buyers do not become discouraged by the fact that the opening took place with a gap up and after only a minute after the start of trading exceeded cherished the bar in 1241 an item on the MICEX, the outcome of the struggle that defined the prospects for Russia's stock market for the foreseeable future. Unlike trading on Wednesday, this time the buyers had more reason to be aggressive, so by leaps and bounds, she began to build the advantage of distancing the stock indicator of the threat of destruction of their plans.
The looming
upside for technical reasons for Russia's actions after the MICEX index was launched height of the flag in which the market was in the previous two and a half weeks, and the passage of 50% attained a certain level of correction of a fall from highs May last began to acquire a more realistic shape, which was seen by many. To find justification for relying on foundations have emerged on Thursday commentaries Mark Mobius. The head of Templeton Asset Management said that in the event of further increases in money supply in the world, especially the growth will be maintained on the emerging markets, among which, he said, and Russia's stock market, which can benefit to the same from a possible rise in oil prices.
Macroeconomic developments also not forced to change dominated by the desire to buy. The initiative results of Alcoa for III quarter was supported by PepsiCo and Marriott International. The published sales figures of U.S. retailers were unexpectedly strong, which gave hope that the situation with the consumer sector has begun to straighten out. Enhanced the effect of weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits (541 000, forecast: 540 000, before. 551 000), which fell to the lowest level since January. Continue to reduce stocks of goods at the wholesale stores (-1.3% m /m, the forecast -1% m /m), which increases the groundwork to revitalize the manufacturing sector.
meetings held monetary authorities of Great Britain and the eurozone have also contributed to higher prices in world commodity and stock markets. Bank of England (0.5%) and ECB (1%) as expected left interest rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the fact that accompany these decisions was in favor of the bulls. Thus, the Bank of England did not change the size of the program quantitative easing, the economy (175 billion pounds), leaving him at the same level in the projections. However, the fact that in November, has already allocated funds will be spent, makes, according to former representative of the Central Bank John Giwa, the regulator to consider the possibility of increasing their limit. Jean-ClaudeTrichet, the head of the ECB, in turn, made it clear to market participants that, despite signs of improvement in the economy, there is no assurance that recovery will be sustainable, so a quick transition to the exit strategy to expect from him is not worth it. Favorable situation with inflation can adhere to this policy and yet nothing changed. With regard to the prevailing rates in the Forex market, Mr. Trichet noted that their erratic movement makes it difficult to restore the real economy, citing that the policy of strong dollar is important, in his opinion. Nevertheless, the absence of passage that are reinforced euro was causing him concern, maintained the existing status quo in the market, characterized by the gradual weakening of the dollar to the recent lows.
The weakness of the U.S. dollar, in turn, helped to boost interest in Russia's actions on two channels. The first - is to continue strengthening of the ruble, which increases profits from operations to non-residents. On Thursday, the ruble, on the eve released overseas in 30 rubles to the dollar, has already reached a mark of 29.56 rubles. And the value of currency basket has dropped to 35.93 rubles. Second - a rise in prices for raw materials. If oil prices on the sort of WTI at the time of the activity on the equity market, only to recover some losses after a moderately negative data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products, in metals, both industrial and precious, there was a sure increase in quotes. Gold prices on Thursday reached the next record levels. Thus, on Thursday the situation entirely favored buyers, the result of which was the closing on a peak day.
Unsure of price fluctuations for oil near the mark in $ 70/barr. on the sort of WTI has not prevented the growth of capitalization of the oil and gas sector of the market (Micex OG 4.11%). The most interesting new paper called Gazprom Neft (5.98%), which can enter into the share capital of the Pavlodar refinery. Lukoil's shares went up by 5.24% on news of the likely entry into the draft Iraqi oil West Qurna-1, while fears of market participants are not caused speculation that ConocoPhillips, which has to balance a 20% package of Lukoil, the program sale of assets may partially get rid of it. Also unsuccessful was the trip CEO Vagit Alikperova to Ukraine, which was planned to come to a mutually beneficial solution for idle now the Odessa refinery. Gazprom's shares (2.68%) once again looked worse than industry rivals and the market as a whole, possibly due to the fact that E. ON is going to agree with the gas monopoly to postpone purchases of gas contracts.
Financial Sector (Micex FNL 4.31%): Sberbank (obyk. 6.44%, scion. 6.1%), VTB (7.19%) as less recovered with minimal marks the beginning of the year was at the center of attention of buyers. Contributed to this and the expectations of favorable figures in the upcoming reports of American banks.
In the steel sector were leading MMC Norilsk Nickel (4.86%) in the light of the favorable report of Alcoa, as well as shares of miners following the agreement reached Raspadskaya and Mechel with FAS and metallurgists to raise coal prices in the IV quarter. Analysts of Deutsche bank then raised their target for these shares. Shares Raspadskaya went up by 6.27%, Belon at 4.2%. Mechel shares (1.81%) lost much of intraday achievements. The same story befallen and Polyus Gold shares (1.52%) because of the rollback price of yellow metal in the evening. Shares Steelworkers: CMI (0.86%), NLMK (1.06%), Severstal (1.51%) looked relatively weak.
look at today's market:
The American stock market (SP 500 0.75%) are a step closer to the maximum values from the beginning of the year. Higher compared with the expectations of the value of net income per share and revenues for the III quarter of Alcoa, the first company that is included in the calculation of the index DJIA, confirmed the validity of the bull intentions. Do not disappoint the intermediate results of Marriott International and PepsiCo. Strengthened existing optimism in the market as a sizeable reduction in applications for unemployment benefits and encouraging monthly sales of retailers. Support came also from senior officials. For example, U.S. Treasury Timothy Geithner said that the housing market is visible to the naked eye shows signs of improvement, and the Speaker of Congress, Nancy Pelosi confirmed rumors that the legislators are going to primary home buyers to extend the tax credits. Representative of the Federal Reserve Jeffrey Leker, in turn, noted that the risk of producing second-bottom in the economy in recent years has declined significantly. Development of the rally as part of the day was suspended after an auction on placement of fresh 30-year bonds, for which demand was not very high. Futures on U.S. indexes on Friday fluctuate near the zero mark.
Asian stock indices (Nikkei 225 1.49%, Hang Seng 0.17%, Shanghai Composite 3.56%, BSE 30 -0.22%) in most of its final week in high spirits, having played stream of favorable news that occurred the previous day. Positive sentiment in the Japanese stock market did not appear hindered rather weak data on order in engineering. Chinese stock market after the holidays wins back world trends.
After trading in the United States was made by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said his department's readiness to begin tightening monetary policy when there will be no doubt that the situation in the economy improves. This comment was the background for the non-aggressive profit-taking on the international currency market, where the euro is not able to go abroad to 1.48 against the dollar. This in turn is pushing for similar actions of traders and commodity markets. Oil prices (WTI $ 71.2/barr.), In contrast to the price of industrial and precious metals have a good safety margin compared with the moment to close Russia's stock market.
On Friday, Russia's stock market will open with a moderate gepom up. On the morning of the residual demand can be after some time run out, after which the market could go into relaxation mode after the shock of growth the previous sessions. Temperate profit-taking in addition to technical factors will contribute to the daytime trend likely to continue to strengthen the U.S. dollar and expectations of an increase in trade deficit in the U.S. (16-30). Among other statistics can be interesting data on the dynamics of prices in the manufacturing sector of the UK (12-30). Significant quarterly reports today are not expected. More vulnerable position today may be in shares of banks, better than the market due to high opening stocks may look like Oil and Gas Industry. After fixing above 1,241 points on the MICEX index closed path, at least, to 1320 points, the velocity of which will depend on the prevailing news background. More upbeat is the goal of 1400 points, the next Fibonacci level from falling from record highs in May of last year.
1; user rated material 5.
Analyst Ratings
Ukrprombank: The End of History
History Ukrprombank finally draws to a close …
Alcoa was not enough
The level of support for fixed-term contract on RTS index performance in December for today - 134 000 points
Toward the end of the session on Russia's market is possible profit-taking before the weekend
List of papers that came up from the side views, which had previously been shares VTB and Rosneft, yesterday marked increase
The fundamental situation in the world market now does not seem much better than the situation two months ago
Today's trading in the United States can show how Americans believe in the continued growth and economic recovery
Since last week, Russia's market has grown by 130 points on the MICEX index, which will lead to sales of securities, purchased before
The main fundamental factors of the October rally in general played, remain only speculative reasons