Recently, some of the analysts could hear comments that the bankruptcy of the financial group CIT lead to similar consequences for many companies, small businesses, which it funded, because there are no institutions that could be replaced by CIT in this business. Accordingly, will the mass dismissals in this sector of American economy, leading to higher unemployment. The resumption of the problems in the labor market, in turn, becomes a powerful negative signal to the stock and commodity markets.
We would argue on this point. First, the thesis of the indispensability CIT doubt. The assets of the company is less than $ 76 billion, and at the same time, banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan (especially after the remarkable financial results of the last two quarters) and, possibly, many others have enough capital to ensure that a risk and intercept business lending small business from the CIT. Even more so after the recent publication of reports, some analysts criticized the GS and JPM for that good results were obtained through the operations in the financial and commodity markets, rather than through the traditional banking activities. But the criticism of experts from Western companies taken to respond (not an example of some of their colleagues from developing countries). Secondly, all is well remembered that in the first half of the same commentators talked about the prospects of bankruptcy of GM: say, the company employs many smezhnikov (car, etc.) and, as a result, they, too, went bankrupt, that lead to an unprecedented increase in unemployment. However, the fears did not materialize. The reason is clear: if the company close to bankruptcy it must be assumed the case with the sales it were, to put it mildly, not very good. Thus, serious problems for car dealers (and other smezhnikov GM) began long before the bankruptcy automakers. The same can be said about the case of the CIT: hardly the last time, she is very active in lending to small businesses, and thus to its customers the most terrible thing has happened.
Therefore, medium-and long-term impact of stories from CIT to the markets we do not expect. Another matter - short-term impact. Note that the Russian stock market is not painted good turning model: it is desirable to have at least second base. So, next week may be a slight correction, but to a minimum 13 July RTS index is unlikely to come. This correction (if at all) should be used to build long positions in the horizon before the end of the year.
In the next week on the Russian stock market is possible (but not necessarily) a small correction to be used for purchases from the horizon until the end of the year and the aim of the RTS index of 1800 points. However, we recommend that you refrain from short-term speculative transactions: with the current volatility of potential returns did not justify the risk taken.
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The head of the Ministry of Economy considers unfounded fears of the Accounting Chamber on the hyperinflation in Ukraine
Sweet nationalism
Forex on the European session
Among the market leaders - shares Nornikelya that after correcting the previous day are popular again
The negative dynamics of commodity markets became enthusiastic for a ruble
At the end of the trading the MICEX currency market the U.S. dollar at the ETC in the calculations tomorrow was 31.7875 rubles. the dollar
The Moscow government plans to increase its share in equity Sibir Energy
The story of the CIT would not have a medium-and long-term impact on markets
Published statistics were still not encouraged by
Next week on the Russian stock market may be a slight downward correction
Recently, some of the analysts could hear comments that the bankruptcy of the financial group CIT lead to similar consequences for many companies, small businesses, which it funded, because there are no institutions that could be replaced by CIT in this business. Accordingly, will the mass dismissals in this sector of American economy, leading to higher unemployment. The resumption of the problems in the labor market, in turn, becomes a powerful negative signal to the stock and commodity markets.
We would argue on this point. First, the thesis of the indispensability CIT doubt. The assets of the company is less than $ 76 billion, and at the same time, banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan (especially after the remarkable financial results of the last two quarters) and, possibly, many others have enough capital to ensure that a risk and intercept business lending small business from the CIT. Even more so after the recent publication of reports, some analysts criticized the GS and JPM for that good results were obtained through the operations in the financial and commodity markets, rather than through the traditional banking activities. But the criticism of experts from Western companies taken to respond (not an example of some of their colleagues from developing countries). Secondly, all is well remembered that in the first half of the same commentators talked about the prospects of bankruptcy of GM: say, the company employs many smezhnikov (car, etc.) and, as a result, they, too, went bankrupt, that lead to an unprecedented increase in unemployment. However, the fears did not materialize. The reason is clear: if the company close to bankruptcy it must be assumed the case with the sales it were, to put it mildly, not very good. Thus, serious problems for car dealers (and other smezhnikov GM) began long before the bankruptcy automakers. The same can be said about the case of the CIT: hardly the last time, she is very active in lending to small businesses, and thus to its customers the most terrible thing has happened.
Therefore, medium-and long-term impact of stories from CIT to the markets we do not expect. Another matter - short-term impact. Note that the Russian stock market is not painted good turning model: it is desirable to have at least second base. So, next week may be a slight correction, but to a minimum 13 July RTS index is unlikely to come. This correction (if at all) should be used to build long positions in the horizon before the end of the year.
In the next week on the Russian stock market is possible (but not necessarily) a small correction to be used for purchases from the horizon until the end of the year and the aim of the RTS index of 1800 points. However, we recommend that you refrain from short-term speculative transactions: with the current volatility of potential returns did not justify the risk taken.
6 users rated material at 2,8.
Analyst Ratings
The head of the Ministry of Economy considers unfounded fears of the Accounting Chamber on the hyperinflation in Ukraine
Sweet nationalism
Forex on the European session
Among the market leaders - shares Nornikelya that after correcting the previous day are popular again
The negative dynamics of commodity markets became enthusiastic for a ruble
At the end of the trading the MICEX currency market the U.S. dollar at the ETC in the calculations tomorrow was 31.7875 rubles. the dollar
The Moscow government plans to increase its share in equity Sibir Energy
The story of the CIT would not have a medium-and long-term impact on markets
Published statistics were still not encouraged by