Summer
not ask. To the frustration banks, expensive and pointless chatter recreation officials added frustration with a price supermarkets and markets. But in the old days in summer could save on the products. Good work, field workers and gardens cultivated crops sold at affordable prices. But in the 2009-m, they found no special reasons to be optimistic that soon noticed ordinary people. However, official statistics states that in July the country's prices are so turned around. Journalists WA decided to check whether it really is.
Beznadega
Real wages in the country, according to official statistics, will not reach the last level of above 10%, which can not be said about the prices of food - they did not want to approach the performance of 2008. According to Goskomstat, the prices added an average of 10% (July 2008 to July 2009).
Back in April, WA projected rise of most of the 15 foods that make up a food basket WA. However, retail prices only exceeded our expectations. Record on the Enhancement price - I boiled sausage varieties. Compared with April. , it went up by 27.8% - up to 26.09 UAH /kg. This is followed by the butter and chicken - plus 16.5, and 12.0% respectively (up to 30.50 UAH /kg and 18.14 UAH /kg). However, once a reservation: in late July - early August in some retail chains Poultry cheaper prices to the level of winter last year (13-15 UAH /kg). As forecast WA, manufacturers have made such a move of necessity - that poultry meat and does not disappear because of the high cost of the ration impoverished consumers. What then brace would slow sales and business development of Poultry Farmers.
Is it worth it to wait for such a good news from manufacturers and retailers of food products in September? Far from it. Thus, according to expert estimates, CASE Ukraine Olga Kravets, cheaper food is in July and August (in the amount of 0,3-0,5%), come out in September, when prices grow up immediately to 0.5% . And so the authorities raspiarennoe the summer decline in prices is very small compared to past performance (for example, in July 2008 on deflation in food was 1.3%).
And this fact, believes Sergei Nalivka, director of consulting agency AAA, no reason to build the optimistic projections of the values of most food groups.
main factor influencing the decline in prices in July-September, has traditionally been podospevshy harvest season. Except in cases where it falls short of expectations. That's what happened this summer. Deflationary effect on agricultural produce during the summer will be limited, because the harvest is expected at the level indicators are much smaller than last year, - convinced Alexei Blinov, economist Astrum Investment Management.
Experts believe that the grain in the current year in Ukraine gathered no more than 38-40 million tonnes - compared to 53 million tons in 2008-m. No better case and sunflowers: projected professionals think tank UkrAgroConsult, harvest the crop will be 5.8 million tons, up 11% less than last year. These volumes provide a full domestic needs. Yes, behold trouble: bad harvest of grain and oilseed happened throughout the world. And supplying them abroad more profitable than the domestic Ukrainian market at lower prices.
As a result, domestic mukomoly will have to live with higher purchasing prices for grain. That, in turn, result in appreciation of their products, and then bread.
And while fans of baking is the time to fill up storehouses: in late August - early September, flour can be slightly cheaper. I think prices will drop by about 10%, no more, - predicts Gorbatyuk Alexander, director of Ð іÐ²Ð½Ðµ-борошно.
But the period of low prices will last no more than a month - until mukomoly do not will find funds for the purchase of grain of new crop. But even in this period should not be expected to reduce the cost of bread. The reason is - the decision of the Cabinet, raising the bar higher profitability for the social bakers of bread to 12%. While the news on the adoption of appropriate regulations and has been published on the official site in June with the CMU. city, but the text of the document at the time of the delivery room to print it does not appear.
If the declaration
executive refresh specificity, bakers probably will take advantage of given opportunities and are likely to increase the price of bread. Is that simultaneously realize the plans will not be able to: a quarterly basis, they are allowed to raise the profitability of no more than 3%.
grow up prices fall and cereals. This year, farmers have reduced significantly the area under the respective culture. As a result, yields are high and not expected. For example, in the 2008-meters, according to Goskomstat, the gross collection of buckwheat was 240.6 thousand tons, while in 2009, he will be no more than 190 tonnes - experts predict that the information the company ProAgro. At 10 tonnes and expected to decrease the harvest of rice - to 90 thousand tons of this picture - an adequate background for the large appreciation in the III quarter.
Podkachali this year, domestic fruits and vegetables. First added to the price of 15-20% (compared to last year), and watermelons in the fall - and all 30%. But increased demand and rising transportation costs due to fuel and provoke подорожаниÑ, experts predict, so impressive price dynamics. And it seems to be no limit. Fedor Rybalko, a specialist in Business Development Project Development of fresh fruit and vegetable sector in Ukraine, IFC, predicts a further rise in prices of fruits due to disparities demand and supply. The sharp appreciation of the dollar has made imports unattractive to the ordinary person. A domestic manufacturer to fill the resulting gap has not been able to. In 2009, Ukraine podesheveet (compared to the 2008-meters), only the discharge and, in the case of overproduction, some varieties of apples in some areas - thought Fedor Rybalko. - But the country as a whole fruit (a local crop) has always been lacking (for meet domestic demand.)
Alas, local farmers have lost interest not only to the cultivation of fruit and vegetables. In the 2008-m massive overproduction of nothing but losses, it has not only significantly cut down on forcing croplands. Yields fell, forcing the price creep up. Most products of the so-called borschevogo set (beets, onions, cabbage, carrot) would cost at retail, except potatoes, in the fall of at least 3 UAH /kg. Then, a year earlier as the price of onions and cabbage in retail did not exceed 1 UAH . /kg , - said Fedor Rybalko.
The only product that does not appreciate in the coming months - the potato. IFC expert predicts even lower prices for this favorite vegetable Ukrainians - to 2,00-2,50 UAH /kg. Many cottager resume growing potatoes, which will sell the surplus. As a result - the market collapse, and prices are still below last year, - explains Fedor Rybalko.
delay zones will have fans of dairy products industry. By early October, experts predict that rising prices for raw milk by 10% and its subsequent rise in November. As a consequence, increase the price of butter and cheese - at 20 and 10-15% respectively. By the way, in July-August, cheese, even cheaper. But by the end of last month of summer, the price of its frozen. This peak подорожаниÑ, according to Basil Vintonyaka, director of consulting company Infagro, will be in October. The good news - more than 15% of the cheese in the 2009-meters do not appreciate. The larger increase of producers are unlikely to go, because in this case would not be able to sell their products, - the expert believes. As for oil, the main factor udorozhayuschim this product is still a shortage of domestic raw materials. Compensate him for the expense of imports, notably from Belarus, which, of course, is expensive to Ukrainian consumers.
themselves to blame
Where in price increases will not work nature, will help officials. In July, the Ministry of Justice is interested in the procedure to check the quality of meat imported to Ukraine, the Prosecutor General requesting the test of vetmeditsiny. And in early August, the Chairman of the State Committee of Veterinary Medicine Pyotr Verbitsky otraportoval that would like to limit the importation of meat into the country only meat carcasses, half, quarter, and a block of meat. The initiative has gained the form of a draft order, which is currently under consideration Goskompredprinimatelstva.
zealous supervisors oversee the quality of meat imported into the country deserved to be commended, though officials did not hedge against price increases due to the realization of their good intentions.
And so, perhaps, will happen in the III quarter. But so far the state in price regulation more like an elephant in a china shop than a visionary strategist. The last proof - the situation in the sugar market. White gold is traditionally expensive during conservation. A similar picture is observed today: according to Goskomstat, for January-July 2009 the price of sugar rose by 45.8%. It was enough to satisfy the market that prices reverse. But the resources of the state is not enough: to assess the Ministry of Economy, together Gosrezerv and Agrarian Fund can realize on the market about 50 thousand tons, while the monthly country consumes 160-180 tons of time, authorized the Government of the import of raw sugar cane - and profile the Minister did not have would act as a comical character, hollow calling people to the screens of televisions do not go about with speculators. But power, as always, missed the registration deadline only at the beginning of August, opening the register of applications for importation of sugar cane.
Again, traditionally to deal with price distortions is likely to be connected to AMCU. And it is possible that those responsible for the increase in sugar prices do not recognize the officials, but operators of the market …. A year later, history will repeat itself. Just as it repeats itself with social benefits. It does not matter that the state coffers empty. In the end, the Government before an election, always been an enviable dodgy when searching for sources of regular cash handouts to the electorate. And he, believing the promises of politicians weak, makes the last time and again repeat that the reason for the devaluation in the hryvnia country. The people of Ukraine are high inflationary expectations - Notes Piontkovsky Irina, an economist Investment Company Troika Dialog Ukraine. - In addition, the business provides the inflationary risks in the structure of prices. For example, because of the need to repay loans may not substantially reduce the price of domestic retailers' .
So it's time to replenish their personal storehouses. Eventually, it will be an incentive for domestic farmers - those few lucky, through which the country has a chance to get out of the swamp, where she her unprofessional actions constantly delaying policy.
Blitz poll
In previous submissions on the price situation on the Ukrainian market of food, we have provided an opportunity to express their views to representatives of legislative and executive branches of government. At this time we decided to ask about the fate of food prices directly from the heads of companies.
Vadim Vishnevsky, chairman of the Supervisory Board of JSC Concern Hlebprom
      Â
How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- Prices of bread to be a smooth show - 15-20% per year - an increase, unless there is some serious turmoil in the markets of raw materials and energy.
Why is this trend?
- From undervalued bread prices as the product adequately to other foods.
What and who should do that in future the prices of food products produced by your industry, have remained stable, not a crisis in the industry?
- Discontinue the practice of a hand of government regulation of pricing in the industry, especially local administrations. Despite the order of the Ministry of Economy, the real mechanism of its implementation to date, not developed. Therefore, the price of bread was still under the control of provincial authorities, who govern on its own profitability and margin trading. Instead of price regulation the government should promptly establish sufficient reserves for the commodity market interventions in the target markets of raw materials (grain, flour, sugar, etc.). Only the market can be a regulator of prices for bread, rather than its artificial containment.
Vladimir Grigorevsky, Executive Director, JSC Sugar Alliance UKRROS
    Â
How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- In the last days of the wholesale price of sugar exceeded 5.5 ths. /t, in the same retail price of sugar sold in excess of 6.5 UAH /kg. The fallof the wholesale price of sugar would be
6 thousand UAH. /T.
Why is this trend?
- One of the main reasons is the rising cost of sugar production. Also this year, significantly reduced the areas under sugar beet - 13% (up to 330 hectares). As a result of shortages of sugar, according to the most conservative estimate, amount to 360-400 thousand tons.
What and who should do that in future the prices of food products produced by your industry, have remained stable, not a crisis in the industry?
- The state has a market-based instruments to regulate the price of sugar. For example, if the overproduction is buying off sugar, protecting producers from falling prices, as in the case of the deficit - is selling the surplus sugar purchases, and thus does not give a reason for the sharp increase in the price. The problem is that the amount of sugar, which has the Agrarian Fund, is only 40 tons, and this is not enough to significantly affect the pricing policy on the market.
Igor Buchatskiy, director of Sagro
   Â
How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- As the experience of past years, the III quarter of the price of pork has traditionally falling under the influence of seasonal factors. Because of the decline in the price of pork cost of other types of meat, which is a substitute for pork (beef and poultry) is likely to be declining. Currently have seen declining prices for poultry in a massive oversupply and imports of chicken meat.
Why is this trend?
autumn begins culling of pigs in private households and greatly increased the offer of meat on the market. At the price of meat also affects cheaper feed in the second half. This occurs at the expense of marketing the new crop of feed, which cost less than those stored in the elevators. In addition, the recent strong price pressure on the market have a supply of meat from abroad to gray schemes.
the autumn of 2009, seasonal factors can be balanced by the increasing value of the dollar, which is a distinct possibility. In the event of a further devaluation of hryvnia, prices for meat will increase because of the presence on the Ukrainian market of imported meat and rising costs of domestic producers to foreign raw materials, such as feed additives and vitamins.
What and who should do that in future the prices of food products produced by your industry, have remained stable, not a crisis in the industry?
- For the development of agro-industrial sector of Ukraine must first carry out a stable government policies to protect domestic livestock farms. In particular, at the state level to ensure strict control of quality and legitimacy of the import of meat to Ukraine, to ensure timely reimbursement of VAT on imports of equipment and the provision of concessional loan for the modernization and renovation industries. These measures are needed both in the field of livestock and crop production, because 65-75% of the cost of meat is the cost of feed.
Victoria Predborskaya, Sales Director for the group of companies Dairy Alliance
                                            Â
How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- cheese now comes from the producer to the distributor at a price of at least 23 UAH /kg. Accordingly, the retail of such products can not cost less than 31 UAH /kg. Now the average in retail cheeses are 41-47 UAH /kg. After three months the price of cheese will begin to rise. Usually in the winter period, prices increased by 10%. In autumn, they will gravitate to 50 UAH /kg. Normally prices shall be reviewed at the end of October - early November. I think that this year will be no exception.
Why is this trend?
- Increased prices due to seasonal cheeses of rising raw material for its production - raw milk. In turn, this decline must be due in the autumn-winter period. Ðо, опÑÑ‚ÑŒ же, Ñтот прогноз оправдаетÑÑ Ð² Ñлучае отÑутÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ ÐºÐ°ÐºÐ¸Ñ…-либо форÑ-мажорных обÑтоÑтельÑтв, как, например, ÑлучилоÑÑŒ в начале 2006 года. Тогда РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð²Ð²ÐµÐ»Ð° запрет на поÑтавки украинÑкой мÑÑо-молочной продукции.
Что и кому необходимо Ñделать, чтобы в будущем цены на продукты питаниÑ, производимые вашей отраÑлью, оÑтавалиÑÑŒ Ñтабильными, не ÑлучалиÑÑŒ кризиÑÑ‹ в отраÑли?
- Ð’ Украине около 25% Ñырого молока на молокоперерабатывающие предприÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ñтупает от хозÑйÑтв и около 75% - от наÑелениÑ. Однако чаÑтники не могут обеÑпечить поÑтавки ÑÑ‹Ñ€ÑŒÑ Ð² течение года равномерно. Как правило, зимой поÑтавки резко падают, а летом - увеличиваютÑÑ. Как ÑледÑтвие, в результате дефицита ÑÑ‹Ñ€ÑŒÑ Ð¾Ñенью-зимой цены повышаютÑÑ, а в результате переизбытка веÑной-летом ÑнижаютÑÑ. Во вÑем мире Ñта проблема решаетÑÑ Ð¿ÑƒÑ‚ÐµÐ¼ гоÑударÑтвенного регулированиÑ.
ПравительÑтву необходимо увеличить объемы дотаций производителÑм молока, Ñоздавать уÑÐ»Ð¾Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑтроительÑтва новых крупных хозÑйÑтв, предоÑтавлÑÑ‚ÑŒ льготные кредиты фермерÑким хозÑйÑтвам. Значимо изменив Ñоотношение молока от наÑÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ хозÑйÑтв в пользу поÑледних, можно Ñгладить фактор ÑезонноÑти и обеÑпечить более-менее равномерные поÑтавки молока в течение года. Ð˜Ð·Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ñтруктуре производителей молока должны проиÑходить за Ñчет Ð½Ð°Ñ€Ð°Ñ‰Ð¸Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ð±ÑŠÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð² молока, получаемых от хозÑйÑтв. Как ÑледÑтвие, цены на готовую молочную продукцию будут Ñтабильными.
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Дмитрий УлÑницкий
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Non-nutritive medium
Summer
not ask. To the frustration banks, expensive and pointless chatter recreation officials added frustration with a price supermarkets and markets. But in the old days in summer could save on the products. Good work, field workers and gardens cultivated crops sold at affordable prices. But in the 2009-m, they found no special reasons to be optimistic that soon noticed ordinary people. However, official statistics states that in July the country's prices are so turned around. Journalists WA decided to check whether it really is.
Beznadega
Real wages in the country, according to official statistics, will not reach the last level of above 10%, which can not be said about the prices of food - they did not want to approach the performance of 2008. According to Goskomstat, the prices added an average of 10% (July 2008 to July 2009).
Back in April, WA projected rise of most of the 15 foods that make up a food basket WA. However, retail prices only exceeded our expectations. Record on the Enhancement price - I boiled sausage varieties. Compared with April. , it went up by 27.8% - up to 26.09 UAH /kg. This is followed by the butter and chicken - plus 16.5, and 12.0% respectively (up to 30.50 UAH /kg and 18.14 UAH /kg). However, once a reservation: in late July - early August in some retail chains Poultry cheaper prices to the level of winter last year (13-15 UAH /kg). As forecast WA, manufacturers have made such a move of necessity - that poultry meat and does not disappear because of the high cost of the ration impoverished consumers. What then brace would slow sales and business development of Poultry Farmers.
Is it worth it to wait for such a good news from manufacturers and retailers of food products in September? Far from it. Thus, according to expert estimates, CASE Ukraine Olga Kravets, cheaper food is in July and August (in the amount of 0,3-0,5%), come out in September, when prices grow up immediately to 0.5% . And so the authorities raspiarennoe the summer decline in prices is very small compared to past performance (for example, in July 2008 on deflation in food was 1.3%).
And this fact, believes Sergei Nalivka, director of consulting agency AAA, no reason to build the optimistic projections of the values of most food groups.
main factor influencing the decline in prices in July-September, has traditionally been podospevshy harvest season. Except in cases where it falls short of expectations. That's what happened this summer. Deflationary effect on agricultural produce during the summer will be limited, because the harvest is expected at the level indicators are much smaller than last year, - convinced Alexei Blinov, economist Astrum Investment Management.
Experts believe that the grain in the current year in Ukraine gathered no more than 38-40 million tonnes - compared to 53 million tons in 2008-m. No better case and sunflowers: projected professionals think tank UkrAgroConsult, harvest the crop will be 5.8 million tons, up 11% less than last year. These volumes provide a full domestic needs. Yes, behold trouble: bad harvest of grain and oilseed happened throughout the world. And supplying them abroad more profitable than the domestic Ukrainian market at lower prices.
As a result, domestic mukomoly will have to live with higher purchasing prices for grain. That, in turn, result in appreciation of their products, and then bread.
And while fans of baking is the time to fill up storehouses: in late August - early September, flour can be slightly cheaper. I think prices will drop by about 10%, no more, - predicts Gorbatyuk Alexander, director of Ð іÐ²Ð½Ðµ-борошно.
But the period of low prices will last no more than a month - until mukomoly do not will find funds for the purchase of grain of new crop. But even in this period should not be expected to reduce the cost of bread. The reason is - the decision of the Cabinet, raising the bar higher profitability for the social bakers of bread to 12%. While the news on the adoption of appropriate regulations and has been published on the official site in June with the CMU. city, but the text of the document at the time of the delivery room to print it does not appear.
If the declaration
executive refresh specificity, bakers probably will take advantage of given opportunities and are likely to increase the price of bread. Is that simultaneously realize the plans will not be able to: a quarterly basis, they are allowed to raise the profitability of no more than 3%.
grow up prices fall and cereals. This year, farmers have reduced significantly the area under the respective culture. As a result, yields are high and not expected. For example, in the 2008-meters, according to Goskomstat, the gross collection of buckwheat was 240.6 thousand tons, while in 2009, he will be no more than 190 tonnes - experts predict that the information the company ProAgro. At 10 tonnes and expected to decrease the harvest of rice - to 90 thousand tons of this picture - an adequate background for the large appreciation in the III quarter.
Podkachali this year, domestic fruits and vegetables. First added to the price of 15-20% (compared to last year), and watermelons in the fall - and all 30%. But increased demand and rising transportation costs due to fuel and provoke подорожаниÑ, experts predict, so impressive price dynamics. And it seems to be no limit. Fedor Rybalko, a specialist in Business Development Project Development of fresh fruit and vegetable sector in Ukraine, IFC, predicts a further rise in prices of fruits due to disparities demand and supply. The sharp appreciation of the dollar has made imports unattractive to the ordinary person. A domestic manufacturer to fill the resulting gap has not been able to. In 2009, Ukraine podesheveet (compared to the 2008-meters), only the discharge and, in the case of overproduction, some varieties of apples in some areas - thought Fedor Rybalko. - But the country as a whole fruit (a local crop) has always been lacking (for meet domestic demand.)
Alas, local farmers have lost interest not only to the cultivation of fruit and vegetables. In the 2008-m massive overproduction of nothing but losses, it has not only significantly cut down on forcing croplands. Yields fell, forcing the price creep up. Most products of the so-called borschevogo set (beets, onions, cabbage, carrot) would cost at retail, except potatoes, in the fall of at least 3 UAH /kg. Then, a year earlier as the price of onions and cabbage in retail did not exceed 1 UAH . /kg , - said Fedor Rybalko.
The only product that does not appreciate in the coming months - the potato. IFC expert predicts even lower prices for this favorite vegetable Ukrainians - to 2,00-2,50 UAH /kg. Many cottager resume growing potatoes, which will sell the surplus. As a result - the market collapse, and prices are still below last year, - explains Fedor Rybalko.
delay zones will have fans of dairy products industry. By early October, experts predict that rising prices for raw milk by 10% and its subsequent rise in November. As a consequence, increase the price of butter and cheese - at 20 and 10-15% respectively. By the way, in July-August, cheese, even cheaper. But by the end of last month of summer, the price of its frozen. This peak подорожаниÑ, according to Basil Vintonyaka, director of consulting company Infagro, will be in October. The good news - more than 15% of the cheese in the 2009-meters do not appreciate. The larger increase of producers are unlikely to go, because in this case would not be able to sell their products, - the expert believes. As for oil, the main factor udorozhayuschim this product is still a shortage of domestic raw materials. Compensate him for the expense of imports, notably from Belarus, which, of course, is expensive to Ukrainian consumers.
themselves to blame
Where in price increases will not work nature, will help officials. In July, the Ministry of Justice is interested in the procedure to check the quality of meat imported to Ukraine, the Prosecutor General requesting the test of vetmeditsiny. And in early August, the Chairman of the State Committee of Veterinary Medicine Pyotr Verbitsky otraportoval that would like to limit the importation of meat into the country only meat carcasses, half, quarter, and a block of meat. The initiative has gained the form of a draft order, which is currently under consideration Goskompredprinimatelstva.
zealous supervisors oversee the quality of meat imported into the country deserved to be commended, though officials did not hedge against price increases due to the realization of their good intentions.
And so, perhaps, will happen in the III quarter. But so far the state in price regulation more like an elephant in a china shop than a visionary strategist. The last proof - the situation in the sugar market. White gold is traditionally expensive during conservation. A similar picture is observed today: according to Goskomstat, for January-July 2009 the price of sugar rose by 45.8%. It was enough to satisfy the market that prices reverse. But the resources of the state is not enough: to assess the Ministry of Economy, together Gosrezerv and Agrarian Fund can realize on the market about 50 thousand tons, while the monthly country consumes 160-180 tons of time, authorized the Government of the import of raw sugar cane - and profile the Minister did not have would act as a comical character, hollow calling people to the screens of televisions do not go about with speculators. But power, as always, missed the registration deadline only at the beginning of August, opening the register of applications for importation of sugar cane.
Again, traditionally to deal with price distortions is likely to be connected to AMCU. And it is possible that those responsible for the increase in sugar prices do not recognize the officials, but operators of the market …. A year later, history will repeat itself. Just as it repeats itself with social benefits. It does not matter that the state coffers empty. In the end, the Government before an election, always been an enviable dodgy when searching for sources of regular cash handouts to the electorate. And he, believing the promises of politicians weak, makes the last time and again repeat that the reason for the devaluation in the hryvnia country. The people of Ukraine are high inflationary expectations - Notes Piontkovsky Irina, an economist Investment Company Troika Dialog Ukraine. - In addition, the business provides the inflationary risks in the structure of prices. For example, because of the need to repay loans may not substantially reduce the price of domestic retailers' .
So it's time to replenish their personal storehouses. Eventually, it will be an incentive for domestic farmers - those few lucky, through which the country has a chance to get out of the swamp, where she her unprofessional actions constantly delaying policy.
Blitz poll
In previous submissions on the price situation on the Ukrainian market of food, we have provided an opportunity to express their views to representatives of legislative and executive branches of government. At this time we decided to ask about the fate of food prices directly from the heads of companies.
Vadim Vishnevsky, chairman of the Supervisory Board of JSC Concern Hlebprom
      Â
How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- Prices of bread to be a smooth show - 15-20% per year - an increase, unless there is some serious turmoil in the markets of raw materials and energy.
Why is this trend?
- From undervalued bread prices as the product adequately to other foods.
What and who should do that in future the prices of food products produced by your industry, have remained stable, not a crisis in the industry?
- Discontinue the practice of a hand of government regulation of pricing in the industry, especially local administrations. Despite the order of the Ministry of Economy, the real mechanism of its implementation to date, not developed. Therefore, the price of bread was still under the control of provincial authorities, who govern on its own profitability and margin trading. Instead of price regulation the government should promptly establish sufficient reserves for the commodity market interventions in the target markets of raw materials (grain, flour, sugar, etc.). Only the market can be a regulator of prices for bread, rather than its artificial containment.
Vladimir Grigorevsky, Executive Director, JSC Sugar Alliance UKRROS
    Â
How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- In the last days of the wholesale price of sugar exceeded 5.5 ths. /t, in the same retail price of sugar sold in excess of 6.5 UAH /kg. The fallof the wholesale price of sugar would be
6 thousand UAH. /T.
Why is this trend?
- One of the main reasons is the rising cost of sugar production. Also this year, significantly reduced the areas under sugar beet - 13% (up to 330 hectares). As a result of shortages of sugar, according to the most conservative estimate, amount to 360-400 thousand tons.
What and who should do that in future the prices of food products produced by your industry, have remained stable, not a crisis in the industry?
- The state has a market-based instruments to regulate the price of sugar. For example, if the overproduction is buying off sugar, protecting producers from falling prices, as in the case of the deficit - is selling the surplus sugar purchases, and thus does not give a reason for the sharp increase in the price. The problem is that the amount of sugar, which has the Agrarian Fund, is only 40 tons, and this is not enough to significantly affect the pricing policy on the market.
Igor Buchatskiy, director of Sagro
   Â
How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- As the experience of past years, the III quarter of the price of pork has traditionally falling under the influence of seasonal factors. Because of the decline in the price of pork cost of other types of meat, which is a substitute for pork (beef and poultry) is likely to be declining. Currently have seen declining prices for poultry in a massive oversupply and imports of chicken meat.
Why is this trend?
autumn begins culling of pigs in private households and greatly increased the offer of meat on the market. At the price of meat also affects cheaper feed in the second half. This occurs at the expense of marketing the new crop of feed, which cost less than those stored in the elevators. In addition, the recent strong price pressure on the market have a supply of meat from abroad to gray schemes.
the autumn of 2009, seasonal factors can be balanced by the increasing value of the dollar, which is a distinct possibility. In the event of a further devaluation of hryvnia, prices for meat will increase because of the presence on the Ukrainian market of imported meat and rising costs of domestic producers to foreign raw materials, such as feed additives and vitamins.
What and who should do that in future the prices of food products produced by your industry, have remained stable, not a crisis in the industry?
- For the development of agro-industrial sector of Ukraine must first carry out a stable government policies to protect domestic livestock farms. In particular, at the state level to ensure strict control of quality and legitimacy of the import of meat to Ukraine, to ensure timely reimbursement of VAT on imports of equipment and the provision of concessional loan for the modernization and renovation industries. These measures are needed both in the field of livestock and crop production, because 65-75% of the cost of meat is the cost of feed.
Victoria Predborskaya, Sales Director for the group of companies Dairy Alliance
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How can I change the prices of food produced by your industry, in the third quarter of 2009?
- cheese now comes from the producer to the distributor at a price of at least 23 UAH /kg. Accordingly, the retail of such products can not cost less than 31 UAH /kg. Now the average in retail cheeses are 41-47 UAH /kg. After three months the price of cheese will begin to rise. Usually in the winter period, prices increased by 10%. In autumn, they will gravitate to 50 UAH /kg. Normally prices shall be reviewed at the end of October - early November. I think that this year will be no exception.
Why is this trend?
- Increased prices due to seasonal cheeses of rising raw material for its production - raw milk. In turn, this decline must be due in the autumn-winter period. Ðо, опÑÑ‚ÑŒ же, Ñтот прогноз оправдаетÑÑ Ð² Ñлучае отÑутÑÑ‚Ð²Ð¸Ñ ÐºÐ°ÐºÐ¸Ñ…-либо форÑ-мажорных обÑтоÑтельÑтв, как, например, ÑлучилоÑÑŒ в начале 2006 года. Тогда РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð²Ð²ÐµÐ»Ð° запрет на поÑтавки украинÑкой мÑÑо-молочной продукции.
Что и кому необходимо Ñделать, чтобы в будущем цены на продукты питаниÑ, производимые вашей отраÑлью, оÑтавалиÑÑŒ Ñтабильными, не ÑлучалиÑÑŒ кризиÑÑ‹ в отраÑли?
- Ð’ Украине около 25% Ñырого молока на молокоперерабатывающие предприÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ñтупает от хозÑйÑтв и около 75% - от наÑелениÑ. Однако чаÑтники не могут обеÑпечить поÑтавки ÑÑ‹Ñ€ÑŒÑ Ð² течение года равномерно. Как правило, зимой поÑтавки резко падают, а летом - увеличиваютÑÑ. Как ÑледÑтвие, в результате дефицита ÑÑ‹Ñ€ÑŒÑ Ð¾Ñенью-зимой цены повышаютÑÑ, а в результате переизбытка веÑной-летом ÑнижаютÑÑ. Во вÑем мире Ñта проблема решаетÑÑ Ð¿ÑƒÑ‚ÐµÐ¼ гоÑударÑтвенного регулированиÑ.
ПравительÑтву необходимо увеличить объемы дотаций производителÑм молока, Ñоздавать уÑÐ»Ð¾Ð²Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð»Ñ ÑтроительÑтва новых крупных хозÑйÑтв, предоÑтавлÑÑ‚ÑŒ льготные кредиты фермерÑким хозÑйÑтвам. Значимо изменив Ñоотношение молока от наÑÐµÐ»ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸ хозÑйÑтв в пользу поÑледних, можно Ñгладить фактор ÑезонноÑти и обеÑпечить более-менее равномерные поÑтавки молока в течение года. Ð˜Ð·Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð² Ñтруктуре производителей молока должны проиÑходить за Ñчет Ð½Ð°Ñ€Ð°Ñ‰Ð¸Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ð±ÑŠÐµÐ¼Ð¾Ð² молока, получаемых от хозÑйÑтв. Как ÑледÑтвие, цены на готовую молочную продукцию будут Ñтабильными.
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Дмитрий УлÑницкий
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