Well, can not our people without the election! Even these are not completed, and worthy of sovereign men already dreaming about the new electoral contests. Voters can only envy the elected demonstrating so rare in our time confidence in the future.
promise to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada of contenders for the presidency gave very willingly. Clearly, Sergei Tigipko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk or Viktor Yushchenko such boldness as to the legislative assembly was worth nothing. With the same success they could threaten the crackdown on the Polish Sejm, or the Israeli Knesset. But Viktor Yanukovych - a special paper. This was before the coveted purple - step. Acquaintance-MP recently quipped: “Tymoshenko behaved like five minutes to the president. Yanukovich behaves as if he had five days as president.”
No doubt, the impressive leg-received in the first round, permits leader OL look into the future with considerable optimism. Therefore, the leader of the blue-white fraternity, without false modesty, shares his plans with the general public. The day before yesterday gave Yanukovych a whole pile of different promises. In particular, announced the imminent appearance of the president (I mean his) decree on the restoration of the house-museum “beautiful poet, the great poet Anton Pavlovich Chekhov. And warned: “If this parliament will not work efficiently, in May 2010 to elect a different population, an effective parliament.
veleglasnoe Such a statement suggests that the venerable Viktor not read not only “Kashtanka, but also the Constitution. For there is no way to follow all procedures required by the Basic Law and thus meet before the end of spring.
And
believe that Yanukovych prenebregnet with these procedures, we strongly reject. No, can not stoop to brutal lawlessness people, so bravely criticized Yushchenko for the systematic mockery of the Constitution and so convincingly promised to restore the rule of law.
Before turning to boringchicanery, to speculate, to whom what is the use of early elections. It is easy to explain the keen interest shown by such an event, Sergei Tigipko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Viktor Yushchenko. The first two have the desire and the ability to have their own factions. Indifferent to the subject and my good friend Viktor. For only in Parliament, he is able to gain not only will hope to continue a political career, but also the necessary security guarantees. Does anyone doubt that delivers business Valaam Bankovoj not averse to acquire parliamentary immunity? That same immunity from any way he heroically fought the whole cadence …
proceed to more complicated mothers. Why early elections Yanukovych or Tymoshenko? Consider their reasons are necessary, but avoid the flaws in the arguments fail. Too many different “but” and “if”.
course, that any president seeking to gain control of the parliament, or at least support the parliamentary majority. Without it, his staff and legislative initiatives practically doomed. Who would not come to the finish line first, at least 226-230 votes in the Rada and to “their” government, he can count. But the majority of situational - the essence of a thing is not durable. And, most importantly, my dear. But the elections, however, also not a cheap. Again risk.
Yet Yanukovych idea of the early campaign so far like it. First, he is convinced that victory in the presidential election will allow him to make the inevitable triumph and parliamentary. And that the number of Party of Regions faction in the Rada VII Convocation will be significantly greater than the number of cells in the OL BP VI convocation. And it will allow with less manual effort to create a majority and form a government subservient. Secondly, the leader of the Regions has long itching to purge the ranks. He yearns to see more in the group”s own confidants and less confidant Akhmetov. Helmsman white and blue sure that the expected the presidency gives him that right. And extraordinary campaign - an excuse.
In case of loss (which Yanukovich did not even want to think, but which is still not excluded) for early parliamentary campaign may also be on hand. Individuals are sure: even after the defeat of their leader in the presidential race on the OL early elections to the Rada wins more than in 2007. And more than YTB. Especially if the crisis under President Tymoshenko will fight just as “effective”, as in the Timoshenko-premiere.
Yuliya
to the idea of unscheduled elections in the highest legislative body is much cooler. Sometimes such a possibility is hinted at, but usually prefers to talk about his opposition to such a scenario. Understand it can be. What-no, but the coalition it already has. Besides, legally admissible. And strengthen it (in case of victory) is much easier than creating a new one. If Yuliya win a Victoria, many of the characters will be obstinate accommodating. Although, they say, the caretaker prime minister, as its chief opponent, is also considering a rehabilitation environment. List of neglectful and furtive looks longer than it seemed. The elections to the Rada - a great opportunity to get rid of the odious, boring and not justified. But whether this will likely? If Tymoshenko becomes president, early parliamentary campaign will be for her the worst of evils. In the case of defeat, it will lose its leverage to influence the process.
However, all described - things are rather speculative. We turn to the legislative realities.
list of conditions that allow the parliament to announce the verdict, given in the 90 th article of the Constitution. Three. It was still the fourth. Let”s just say, not quite constitutional. It was used for holding early elections in 2007. Article 82 of the Basic Law stipulates: BP is subject to the election of the Plenipotentiary at least 2 /3 of its constitutional composition. This rule was invented in 1996, when there were still majority districts, and there was a risk nedoizbraniya large part of the People”s Deputy. When a rigid proportional model this possibility is excluded, but the relevant constitutional provision, no one canceled. Fuse into a trigger. Critical mass of members to voluntarily lay down the powers, the legislature was not competent, and the path to an extraordinary campaign was open. After this error corrected: the law clarified, and now the addition of massive mandates Rada”s legitimacy is no longer threatened.
Thus, the first option. The first paragraph of Article 90 allows the president to dissolve parliament if a month has not formed a coalition of parliamentary factions. Pre-term elections, according to the 77-th article of the Constitution, “shall be held within sixty days from the date of publication of the decision on dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada. Lawyers for a long time arguing about how to understand the phrase “within sixty days.” Sixty days? Or not later than sixty days? End Dispute put the final version of the profile of the law. It painted a campaign almost by day and lasts two months. Even if one wants to expedite the process, make it no longer happens.
to elections held in late May (as is Yanukovych wants to), it is necessary that the campaign began in late March. So that she began in late March, it is necessary that the coalition fell apart in late January and was not created until the end of February. January has already expired, the coalition (at least on paper) there.
But even if the majority had already disintegrated, it is unlikely to change anything. CEC has promised to take stock of the elections on 17 February. In that it is the trials, no one doubts. Consequently, the promulgation of the results will be delayed. For how long - is unknown. That is the new president did not have time to dissolve the Rada in those terms, which would hold elections in May. And the acting head of state denied the right to early terminate the powers of Parliament. The above-mentioned Article 90 forbids him to engage in such in the last six months of selfless service to the people of Ukraine.
But this is not all. The order of the collapse of the coalition is described in the regulations - and nowhere else. Regulations was unconstitutional since the end of 2009. For example, MP will be a temporary regulation, or ruling on termination of the coalition. This will take time. How many - nobody knows. Do not forget, in this parliament has accumulated a critical number of those who do not get many chances in the next Rada. They exist in all the fractions, and they will oppose any attempt to shorten their deputy century.
Volodymyr Lytvyn embarrassment in the first round of presidential elections made a ruthless enemy of the early parliamentary campaign. And the speaker - this is serious.
On termination of the coalition must officially declare presiding at the session. Then (not later than four days) in the “Voice of Ukraine” to be released publications. Day of the newspaper and is considered the date of death of the parliamentary majority. Practice shows that between the decision of the decay of the coalition and the official announcement of this sad news could be a huge distance. The speaker can not hurry, as it did, for example, Yatsenyuk. Arseny Petrovich, however, pulled a short time. Vladimir able to pull a lot longer. Add the date that the decision in a parliamentary publication is also possible (there are such cases). Oh, and, finally, to the presiding officer announced obituary coalition, it is necessary to make it than to preside. What a week this year will be the plenary, and what - no, yet to be determined.
Next to continue? Do not need?
Then proceed to the second option.
He was somewhat more promising. According to paragraph 2 of Article 90 of the Constitution of the parliament”s powers prematurely terminated if, within sixty days after the resignation of the Cabinet is not formed a new government.
226 votes of no confidence to the Government - and the case in his hat. But until the elections will not happen. Seems to justify approval of these things there is no special needs. When completed election - God only knows (see above). Do not forget that the oath of the new president should take a month after the official announcement of election results. Keep in mind, and that the inauguration should take place at a meeting of the Rada. You can create derail. And more than once. But let”s say, a miracle happened, and the new president will come into law not later than the end of February. Immediately promptly dismissed Tymoshenko”s Cabinet. Suppose that two months is not formed a government. (What”s also unlikely, especially in case of victory of Yanukovych - the devil him two months to coexist with the Cabinet of Yulia Vladimirovna). The result - the end of April. And the elections should take place in late May. And on the campaign law set aside two months. Not formed? That”s it.
And there is option number 3. Not dead. According to him (item number 3, article 90th), the President may dissolve the Verkhovna Rada, if within thirty days of a session can not begin plenary. Almost all interviewed me deputies and politicians were unanimous: to fulfill such a condition is possible only in theory. Block Radu for a month now can not afford anyone. Explore the possibility of at least one minute to open session Lytvyn under force. Especially in the current Rada always will find 226 people with perfectly developed instinct for self-preservation. Moreover, before the inauguration of new president no no gestures will not do. And when the inauguration will happen? Who knows? No answer.
In a word, hold early parliamentary elections on 30 May legally impossible. Carry out later, say, in the autumn, more realistic. But still difficult. We”ll have to overcome the resistance of many MPs who do not want to live healthy part with mandates. Recalcitrance of the oligarchs, who were tired of paying and who are eager to quickly recapture already spent. The fear of party leaders who are tired of the risk.
There are many other factors that could affect the process. For example, the Cabinet may refuse to allocate funds (that is condemned second early elections behalf of Yushchenko). By the way, that we do not have the budget, and money for such an election could be found except in theory. And, most importantly, why?
Any of the options we have described means that approximately half of the already crippled power system would simply paralyzed. If the decision on holding early elections, BP will be this year, still pending, the fruitful cooperation of a new president and parliament condemned and sentenced by the Government can not be and speeches. What is sensible in the current president, to put it mildly, a bad situation go on this? Wait for the elections. Then wait for the debriefing. Courts-gossip. And if, God forbid, do not get what you expect? New koalitsiada-spikeriada - per month. Formation of the government - even a month. There”s a New Year. And outside the window - Egyptian darkness and gnashing of teeth. Let”s just say, obscuration, not to utter aloud the word, which you thought. Yes, a president, spent a year at the game - with the banking, just vynf43esut. And he only settled down there.
Because the most likely scenario: the government”s resignation immediately after the election of a new president. If Yanukovych wins, 226 votes for the removal of Tymoshenko he somehow would find. And 226 - for the new Cabinet, I think, too. The funny thing is that the parliamentary coalition of it may remain unchanged, with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, headed. There are so political and legal quirks. Above all, how to vote, but not where are.
If Tymoshenko wins, then she must resign the prime minister, because, according to the Constitution, while ruling the country and the government can not. But if Yulia resigns as head of the CM, then (by the same Constitution) resigns and all his former Cabinet. Who will be in the new? Well, as a contract.
What next? We”ll see. One thing is clear: to talk about early elections in this country do not stop never. Well, can not our people without the election!
Sergey Rakhmanin
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Not mite May
Well, can not our people without elections !…
Well, can not our people without the election! Even these are not completed, and worthy of sovereign men already dreaming about the new electoral contests. Voters can only envy the elected demonstrating so rare in our time confidence in the future.
promise to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada of contenders for the presidency gave very willingly. Clearly, Sergei Tigipko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk or Viktor Yushchenko such boldness as to the legislative assembly was worth nothing. With the same success they could threaten the crackdown on the Polish Sejm, or the Israeli Knesset. But Viktor Yanukovych - a special paper. This was before the coveted purple - step. Acquaintance-MP recently quipped: “Tymoshenko behaved like five minutes to the president. Yanukovich behaves as if he had five days as president.”
No doubt, the impressive leg-received in the first round, permits leader OL look into the future with considerable optimism. Therefore, the leader of the blue-white fraternity, without false modesty, shares his plans with the general public. The day before yesterday gave Yanukovych a whole pile of different promises. In particular, announced the imminent appearance of the president (I mean his) decree on the restoration of the house-museum “beautiful poet, the great poet Anton Pavlovich Chekhov. And warned: “If this parliament will not work efficiently, in May 2010 to elect a different population, an effective parliament.
veleglasnoe Such a statement suggests that the venerable Viktor not read not only “Kashtanka, but also the Constitution. For there is no way to follow all procedures required by the Basic Law and thus meet before the end of spring.
And
believe that Yanukovych prenebregnet with these procedures, we strongly reject. No, can not stoop to brutal lawlessness people, so bravely criticized Yushchenko for the systematic mockery of the Constitution and so convincingly promised to restore the rule of law.
Before turning to boringchicanery, to speculate, to whom what is the use of early elections. It is easy to explain the keen interest shown by such an event, Sergei Tigipko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Viktor Yushchenko. The first two have the desire and the ability to have their own factions. Indifferent to the subject and my good friend Viktor. For only in Parliament, he is able to gain not only will hope to continue a political career, but also the necessary security guarantees. Does anyone doubt that delivers business Valaam Bankovoj not averse to acquire parliamentary immunity? That same immunity from any way he heroically fought the whole cadence …
proceed to more complicated mothers. Why early elections Yanukovych or Tymoshenko? Consider their reasons are necessary, but avoid the flaws in the arguments fail. Too many different “but” and “if”.
course, that any president seeking to gain control of the parliament, or at least support the parliamentary majority. Without it, his staff and legislative initiatives practically doomed. Who would not come to the finish line first, at least 226-230 votes in the Rada and to “their” government, he can count. But the majority of situational - the essence of a thing is not durable. And, most importantly, my dear. But the elections, however, also not a cheap. Again risk.
Yet Yanukovych idea of the early campaign so far like it. First, he is convinced that victory in the presidential election will allow him to make the inevitable triumph and parliamentary. And that the number of Party of Regions faction in the Rada VII Convocation will be significantly greater than the number of cells in the OL BP VI convocation. And it will allow with less manual effort to create a majority and form a government subservient. Secondly, the leader of the Regions has long itching to purge the ranks. He yearns to see more in the group”s own confidants and less confidant Akhmetov. Helmsman white and blue sure that the expected the presidency gives him that right. And extraordinary campaign - an excuse.
In case of loss (which Yanukovich did not even want to think, but which is still not excluded) for early parliamentary campaign may also be on hand. Individuals are sure: even after the defeat of their leader in the presidential race on the OL early elections to the Rada wins more than in 2007. And more than YTB. Especially if the crisis under President Tymoshenko will fight just as “effective”, as in the Timoshenko-premiere.
Yuliya
to the idea of unscheduled elections in the highest legislative body is much cooler. Sometimes such a possibility is hinted at, but usually prefers to talk about his opposition to such a scenario. Understand it can be. What-no, but the coalition it already has. Besides, legally admissible. And strengthen it (in case of victory) is much easier than creating a new one. If Yuliya win a Victoria, many of the characters will be obstinate accommodating. Although, they say, the caretaker prime minister, as its chief opponent, is also considering a rehabilitation environment. List of neglectful and furtive looks longer than it seemed. The elections to the Rada - a great opportunity to get rid of the odious, boring and not justified. But whether this will likely? If Tymoshenko becomes president, early parliamentary campaign will be for her the worst of evils. In the case of defeat, it will lose its leverage to influence the process.
However, all described - things are rather speculative. We turn to the legislative realities.
list of conditions that allow the parliament to announce the verdict, given in the 90 th article of the Constitution. Three. It was still the fourth. Let”s just say, not quite constitutional. It was used for holding early elections in 2007. Article 82 of the Basic Law stipulates: BP is subject to the election of the Plenipotentiary at least 2 /3 of its constitutional composition. This rule was invented in 1996, when there were still majority districts, and there was a risk nedoizbraniya large part of the People”s Deputy. When a rigid proportional model this possibility is excluded, but the relevant constitutional provision, no one canceled. Fuse into a trigger. Critical mass of members to voluntarily lay down the powers, the legislature was not competent, and the path to an extraordinary campaign was open. After this error corrected: the law clarified, and now the addition of massive mandates Rada”s legitimacy is no longer threatened.
Thus, the first option. The first paragraph of Article 90 allows the president to dissolve parliament if a month has not formed a coalition of parliamentary factions. Pre-term elections, according to the 77-th article of the Constitution, “shall be held within sixty days from the date of publication of the decision on dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada. Lawyers for a long time arguing about how to understand the phrase “within sixty days.” Sixty days? Or not later than sixty days? End Dispute put the final version of the profile of the law. It painted a campaign almost by day and lasts two months. Even if one wants to expedite the process, make it no longer happens.
to elections held in late May (as is Yanukovych wants to), it is necessary that the campaign began in late March. So that she began in late March, it is necessary that the coalition fell apart in late January and was not created until the end of February. January has already expired, the coalition (at least on paper) there.
But even if the majority had already disintegrated, it is unlikely to change anything. CEC has promised to take stock of the elections on 17 February. In that it is the trials, no one doubts. Consequently, the promulgation of the results will be delayed. For how long - is unknown. That is the new president did not have time to dissolve the Rada in those terms, which would hold elections in May. And the acting head of state denied the right to early terminate the powers of Parliament. The above-mentioned Article 90 forbids him to engage in such in the last six months of selfless service to the people of Ukraine.
But this is not all. The order of the collapse of the coalition is described in the regulations - and nowhere else. Regulations was unconstitutional since the end of 2009. For example, MP will be a temporary regulation, or ruling on termination of the coalition. This will take time. How many - nobody knows. Do not forget, in this parliament has accumulated a critical number of those who do not get many chances in the next Rada. They exist in all the fractions, and they will oppose any attempt to shorten their deputy century.
Volodymyr Lytvyn embarrassment in the first round of presidential elections made a ruthless enemy of the early parliamentary campaign. And the speaker - this is serious.
On termination of the coalition must officially declare presiding at the session. Then (not later than four days) in the “Voice of Ukraine” to be released publications. Day of the newspaper and is considered the date of death of the parliamentary majority. Practice shows that between the decision of the decay of the coalition and the official announcement of this sad news could be a huge distance. The speaker can not hurry, as it did, for example, Yatsenyuk. Arseny Petrovich, however, pulled a short time. Vladimir able to pull a lot longer. Add the date that the decision in a parliamentary publication is also possible (there are such cases). Oh, and, finally, to the presiding officer announced obituary coalition, it is necessary to make it than to preside. What a week this year will be the plenary, and what - no, yet to be determined.
Next to continue? Do not need?
Then proceed to the second option.
He was somewhat more promising. According to paragraph 2 of Article 90 of the Constitution of the parliament”s powers prematurely terminated if, within sixty days after the resignation of the Cabinet is not formed a new government.
226 votes of no confidence to the Government - and the case in his hat. But until the elections will not happen. Seems to justify approval of these things there is no special needs. When completed election - God only knows (see above). Do not forget that the oath of the new president should take a month after the official announcement of election results. Keep in mind, and that the inauguration should take place at a meeting of the Rada. You can create derail. And more than once. But let”s say, a miracle happened, and the new president will come into law not later than the end of February. Immediately promptly dismissed Tymoshenko”s Cabinet. Suppose that two months is not formed a government. (What”s also unlikely, especially in case of victory of Yanukovych - the devil him two months to coexist with the Cabinet of Yulia Vladimirovna). The result - the end of April. And the elections should take place in late May. And on the campaign law set aside two months. Not formed? That”s it.
And there is option number 3. Not dead. According to him (item number 3, article 90th), the President may dissolve the Verkhovna Rada, if within thirty days of a session can not begin plenary. Almost all interviewed me deputies and politicians were unanimous: to fulfill such a condition is possible only in theory. Block Radu for a month now can not afford anyone. Explore the possibility of at least one minute to open session Lytvyn under force. Especially in the current Rada always will find 226 people with perfectly developed instinct for self-preservation. Moreover, before the inauguration of new president no no gestures will not do. And when the inauguration will happen? Who knows? No answer.
In a word, hold early parliamentary elections on 30 May legally impossible. Carry out later, say, in the autumn, more realistic. But still difficult. We”ll have to overcome the resistance of many MPs who do not want to live healthy part with mandates. Recalcitrance of the oligarchs, who were tired of paying and who are eager to quickly recapture already spent. The fear of party leaders who are tired of the risk.
There are many other factors that could affect the process. For example, the Cabinet may refuse to allocate funds (that is condemned second early elections behalf of Yushchenko). By the way, that we do not have the budget, and money for such an election could be found except in theory. And, most importantly, why?
Any of the options we have described means that approximately half of the already crippled power system would simply paralyzed. If the decision on holding early elections, BP will be this year, still pending, the fruitful cooperation of a new president and parliament condemned and sentenced by the Government can not be and speeches. What is sensible in the current president, to put it mildly, a bad situation go on this? Wait for the elections. Then wait for the debriefing. Courts-gossip. And if, God forbid, do not get what you expect? New koalitsiada-spikeriada - per month. Formation of the government - even a month. There”s a New Year. And outside the window - Egyptian darkness and gnashing of teeth. Let”s just say, obscuration, not to utter aloud the word, which you thought. Yes, a president, spent a year at the game - with the banking, just vynf43esut. And he only settled down there.
Because the most likely scenario: the government”s resignation immediately after the election of a new president. If Yanukovych wins, 226 votes for the removal of Tymoshenko he somehow would find. And 226 - for the new Cabinet, I think, too. The funny thing is that the parliamentary coalition of it may remain unchanged, with the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, headed. There are so political and legal quirks. Above all, how to vote, but not where are.
If Tymoshenko wins, then she must resign the prime minister, because, according to the Constitution, while ruling the country and the government can not. But if Yulia resigns as head of the CM, then (by the same Constitution) resigns and all his former Cabinet. Who will be in the new? Well, as a contract.
What next? We”ll see. One thing is clear: to talk about early elections in this country do not stop never. Well, can not our people without the election!
Sergey Rakhmanin
In Switzerland, Russia”s billionaire imposed a multimillion-dollar fine
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