Mindful of the saying, is ready to sledge the summer, Russia will not cease to worry about the fate of the underground storage facilities, payment of transit, and even - loans that Ukraine requested the EU. And Europe seems to be very much on the sidelines will not.
Gaza is not a lot?
Although high season power behind the conflicts, emotions in the tripartite gas relations between Ukraine, Russia and Europe were still impressive in its degrees. The main reason for maintaining such a specific tone is generally raised by Moscow's concerns would not only be, as last time for the most part, the Old World. Therefore, all of the difficulties of Kiev of blue fuel, instantly becoming the province of the international community with the remark a sign of insolvency. For the sake of justice need to clarify - the gas problems in Ukraine are more than enough.
situation with the supply of energy at the beginning of summer, to put it mildly, not pleased. The cornerstone of the issues and facts, and based on numerous statements by the Russian side, the financial situation remains NJSC Naftogaz Ukraine. In doing so, real and potential debts of the state monopoly of leadership believed in different ways: the president is confident that, given the probable penalty of Gazprom the amount of hardship is already the order of 80 billion hryvnia, Prime is not convinced the two neighbors panic. Moreover, Cabinet has taken for emergency resuscitation ward, the truth, rather ambiguous way. The Government has decided to increase the authorized capital of Naftogaz to the 18.6 billion hryvnia - up to 24.1 billion, presumably at the expense of the bond issue state loan to redeem the NBU. To assess the consequences of such kind of solutions to the state budget still not in a hurry, on the agenda - an attempt to increase the attractiveness of the corporation to potential investors and creditors today. Because that money is needed right now.
financial problems were picked up by the state monopoly on all flanks. Most of them - old friends, but some in January 2009 provided the new contracts. Apart from the need to repay debts to a long-standing credit (according to the Court of Accounts of this year, Naftogaz to pay 17.5 billion hryvnia), relevant eternal problems remain a problem with payment of energy supplies, which permanently ensures NJSC teplokommunenergo. In June, another piece of patient management corporation bursted on the grounds of some 3.5 billion hryvnia debts, and a number of companies led by Kievenergo zamayachil ghost trip. As in Ukraine as a whole proplat population level is high enough, the government's problems Naftogaz sees zlokoznennost local authorities are not hurrying to cover the difference between the fares. I want you to know: as long as I am prime minister, Naftogazis the day to pay for gas, despite the fact that the mayors of the Party of Regions have established a blockade and did not pay a penny for gas, - Yulia Tymoshenko explained on the basis obviously, the fact that most businesses to non-paying dwells in the south-east of the country. And the obvious way to improve the welfare of Naftogaz - raising tariffs for the population - are not even considering the prime, despite the activity, which in this area are planning to develop a state monopoly and the Electricity Regulatory Natskomissiya. Head of the Cabinet can be understood: on the one hand - a crisis to another - approaching elections. In such a situation, take action, showy in the interests of all voters, is extremely difficult. Much easier to amend the budget to increase the amount of compensation for the difference in value between imported gas and its sale teplokommunenergo. But the easiest - does not mean better …
While on the domestic front, the fight boils with the debtors, at the external debtor is in danger of becoming Naftogaz. The arrival of summer, Gazprom met with certainty that in June, Ukraine will be very difficult to pay for the May delivery. At that time Kiev carried - through credit to 3.8 billion hryvnia, which has provided another gosmonopolii Public Employment - Oschadbank. But optimism the Russian side continues to hold degrees. After the energopostavschik assured that the penalties for arrears contracted blue fuel is irrelevant, the main topic of discussion in recent times was the potential inability of Kiev to pay for gas, which will download in the UGS in advance of the winter. It is expected that Ukraine should increase reserves to 28 billion cubic meters, having spent on the resume of about $ 5 billion. Where to find the necessary funds, it seems, the Ukrainian government has no idea. At the same time, some experts puzzled over other issues. First: whether a Ukrainian storage needed in that amount of stock - according to experts, a few years ago was able to hibernate safely and with less insurance, and through a crisis of energy consumption by industry has decreased. But here, perhaps, comes into effect the principle of gas is not a lot happens. The second issue: the adequacy of the scope of the problem, which advertises Russia, a reality. A recent statement by Gazprom that the injection of the Ukrainian GKH stopped claiming to be a local sensation, calculated on the reaction of Europe as a possible lender of Ukraine. Such a degree of concern may be related, as with touching concern for the welfare of EU countries, and the fact that under the pricing formula in the early years it was assumed that in the third quarter compared with the second price of gas has declined. However, Russia has already encouraged by rise of oil and the promise that in the second half of blue fuel podtyanetsya and went. As significantly, earlier in Gazprom were of a different point of view: at the end of 2008, when oil is rapidly deshevela, head of corporate governance Alexei Miller explained that the gas pricing behind from the oil-month edak, at nine, so $ 400 for thousands of cubic meters to Ukraine - this is not a ceiling at all. Well, the logic of the Russian side is simple and clear: the gas must be a lot of gas should be expensive. And to live by the laws of logic that should Ukraine.
Who to help?
Faced with the avalanche gas problems Kiev does not seem to be confident that will be able to cope on their own. In the words of the state is divided leadership necessary to be optimistic (although it is more respect of Yulia Tymoshenko) or a certain dose of skepticism (eg, Viktor Yushchenko continues to remind how disadvantageous for Ukraine on the transit time). In fact, the government does not get tired hint: help those than can (do not raisethe same rates), but within reasonable limits - so credit to the IMF has not yet been planned to allow for payment energodolgov. The main recipients of allusions, as expected, Russia and the European Union. And each side has reacted in its own way.
level of participation in the discussion of the Ukrainian gas problems the Russian side can not be questioned. Moscow with an impressive tenacity continues to remind: Naftogaz one step from the abyss. And, despite the fact that most of the criticism is for export - is in Europe - like the moral pressure on Ukraine, too, can bear fruit. Successful logins psychological impact on the subject of debt except for the emotional satisfaction may be quite substantial, and dividends. One option might be to provide a loan: the situation where one country is sponsoring another in order to repay a debt as, looks quite interesting, but not too optimistic for the debtor. However, while the Kremlin rejected the idea (and about $ 5 billion it already does not go). But another idea (in the words of Vladimir Putin, proposed by the Ukrainian working group) was more enthusiastic. This is a proposal to pay for future content UGS advance payments for the transit of, approximately five years. On the one hand, the idea is quite predictable: Ukraine is already used when paying for gas in transit until the end of 2010, why not repeat a good experience. On the other - for such immediately initiated a mass of questions, most of which relates to fair tariff, which will take into account. Is unlikely that he was pleased by transit-debtor who has not come to market rates for their services. To crown the whole, in the nearest future Ukraine can not speak in too convenient of the applicant. As is known, signed contracts in January, suggest that in 2010 our country will buy some 52 billion cubic meters of gas. Given the reduction in consumption and Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð¶Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ blue fuel such volumes seem overly optimistic for the domestic economy. Revise the paragraph arrangements can be, but need to do so until the end of the first half of the previous site review year - that is, until July 1. Good to still believe in the Presidential Secretariat, to and from transit. And to determine the potential degree of loyalty to Gazprom is somewhat difficult.
Pressure on Naftogaz - one side of the coin. Most of the efforts of the Russian part of the information is still sent to the West. The important thing is what always comes back to Moscow, explaining the policy of European partners: if Ukraine does not currently fill UGS (a tie and an expensive gas, it turned out), the following winter in Europe would be fun previous. One of the main reasons for this persistence is likely to be declaration of transmission Ukraine-EU relations. In recent times, Russia is concentrating efforts towards the diversification of routes of energy supplies (the main hopes for the future continue to be North and South Stream). Defamation of Ukraine as a transit in the eyes of Europeans, will help to find the necessary support to these projects. On the other hand, the negative image of Ukraine will certainly affect the dream of Kiev on the new rules of the game: EU countries are buying gas at the border of Ukraine and Russia, and pay for transit to the European rate is true … But, despite the best efforts, Europe has in no hurry to comment on progress conversation friendly talk, but seems to be in Brussels had already begun to think about the possibility of a new gas crisis.
passion for the topic of Russia gas apocalypse time fully coincided with a campaign that is trying to deploy in Europe, the Ukrainian government. During a recent visit to Luxembourg Yulia Tymoshenko in the best tradition of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev explains why representatives of the European Union should help to solve his problems Kiev. This gas is equally necessary as the EU - for use in winter, and for Russia, which requires the repository to upload an extra amount of gas during the summer period. The total happiness of Ukraine, Russia and the EU should be someone to fund, - Yulia Tymoshenko potential partners. Necessary funds, according to the prime minister could provide European banks - such as the EBRD. In Europe, reacted cautiously to the request, but promised to think about. Reflected short - at a meeting of the Coordination Group in Brussels prozuvachali two options: either financial institutions provide credit to Kiev or European companies buy gas and store it in Ukrainian UGS, paying the rent. But if you prefer - and the methods can be combined.
initiative, supported by Brussels, can shift the situation from a dead point. In any case, already the fact that the EU is ready to accept the logic of the Ukrainian side - to achieve. Nevertheless, the declaration of intent to implement them - the way is very long. And know how well it will be (especially given the fact that the option of storing the gas is still a stranger to explore). At the same time, to expect that good Europeans will solve all the problems of Ukraine is not worth it. Technologically, the necessary level of occupancy of Ukrainian storage - only one of the difficulties. On the other: how much gas to buy, under what conditions, where borrowing money to pay for it as given and to collect debts - Ukraine to fight its own. And do it as quickly as possible - a combination of cold season in the campaign may have slabopredskazuemye consequences. Truly, the gas should be prepared for the summer.
Xenia Sokulskaya
Leaders of growth falling to 18.06.2009
Latin America: growth index of leading indicators in the United States poborol the fears of investors
The course increased dollar purchases - the morning review of cash markets
Vinskyi considers disastrous financial condition Укрзализныци
LUKoil will sell to China to 3 million tons of oil
Unhealthy interest
Euro to dollar grows on Friday, the EU states on a course of the economy to sustained recovery
Indexes in the United States rose on Thursday on strong statistics on Friday futures expensive
Indexes in Asia, rising on Friday on strong statdannyh of the United States, shares of exporters expensive
Prepare gas during the summer
Mindful of the saying, is ready to sledge the summer, Russia will not cease to worry about the fate of the underground storage facilities, payment of transit, and even - loans that Ukraine requested the EU. And Europe seems to be very much on the sidelines will not.
Gaza is not a lot?
Although high season power behind the conflicts, emotions in the tripartite gas relations between Ukraine, Russia and Europe were still impressive in its degrees. The main reason for maintaining such a specific tone is generally raised by Moscow's concerns would not only be, as last time for the most part, the Old World. Therefore, all of the difficulties of Kiev of blue fuel, instantly becoming the province of the international community with the remark a sign of insolvency. For the sake of justice need to clarify - the gas problems in Ukraine are more than enough.
situation with the supply of energy at the beginning of summer, to put it mildly, not pleased. The cornerstone of the issues and facts, and based on numerous statements by the Russian side, the financial situation remains NJSC Naftogaz Ukraine. In doing so, real and potential debts of the state monopoly of leadership believed in different ways: the president is confident that, given the probable penalty of Gazprom the amount of hardship is already the order of 80 billion hryvnia, Prime is not convinced the two neighbors panic. Moreover, Cabinet has taken for emergency resuscitation ward, the truth, rather ambiguous way. The Government has decided to increase the authorized capital of Naftogaz to the 18.6 billion hryvnia - up to 24.1 billion, presumably at the expense of the bond issue state loan to redeem the NBU. To assess the consequences of such kind of solutions to the state budget still not in a hurry, on the agenda - an attempt to increase the attractiveness of the corporation to potential investors and creditors today. Because that money is needed right now.
financial problems were picked up by the state monopoly on all flanks. Most of them - old friends, but some in January 2009 provided the new contracts. Apart from the need to repay debts to a long-standing credit (according to the Court of Accounts of this year, Naftogaz to pay 17.5 billion hryvnia), relevant eternal problems remain a problem with payment of energy supplies, which permanently ensures NJSC teplokommunenergo. In June, another piece of patient management corporation bursted on the grounds of some 3.5 billion hryvnia debts, and a number of companies led by Kievenergo zamayachil ghost trip. As in Ukraine as a whole proplat population level is high enough, the government's problems Naftogaz sees zlokoznennost local authorities are not hurrying to cover the difference between the fares. I want you to know: as long as I am prime minister, Naftogazis the day to pay for gas, despite the fact that the mayors of the Party of Regions have established a blockade and did not pay a penny for gas, - Yulia Tymoshenko explained on the basis obviously, the fact that most businesses to non-paying dwells in the south-east of the country. And the obvious way to improve the welfare of Naftogaz - raising tariffs for the population - are not even considering the prime, despite the activity, which in this area are planning to develop a state monopoly and the Electricity Regulatory Natskomissiya. Head of the Cabinet can be understood: on the one hand - a crisis to another - approaching elections. In such a situation, take action, showy in the interests of all voters, is extremely difficult. Much easier to amend the budget to increase the amount of compensation for the difference in value between imported gas and its sale teplokommunenergo. But the easiest - does not mean better …
While on the domestic front, the fight boils with the debtors, at the external debtor is in danger of becoming Naftogaz. The arrival of summer, Gazprom met with certainty that in June, Ukraine will be very difficult to pay for the May delivery. At that time Kiev carried - through credit to 3.8 billion hryvnia, which has provided another gosmonopolii Public Employment - Oschadbank. But optimism the Russian side continues to hold degrees. After the energopostavschik assured that the penalties for arrears contracted blue fuel is irrelevant, the main topic of discussion in recent times was the potential inability of Kiev to pay for gas, which will download in the UGS in advance of the winter. It is expected that Ukraine should increase reserves to 28 billion cubic meters, having spent on the resume of about $ 5 billion. Where to find the necessary funds, it seems, the Ukrainian government has no idea. At the same time, some experts puzzled over other issues. First: whether a Ukrainian storage needed in that amount of stock - according to experts, a few years ago was able to hibernate safely and with less insurance, and through a crisis of energy consumption by industry has decreased. But here, perhaps, comes into effect the principle of gas is not a lot happens. The second issue: the adequacy of the scope of the problem, which advertises Russia, a reality. A recent statement by Gazprom that the injection of the Ukrainian GKH stopped claiming to be a local sensation, calculated on the reaction of Europe as a possible lender of Ukraine. Such a degree of concern may be related, as with touching concern for the welfare of EU countries, and the fact that under the pricing formula in the early years it was assumed that in the third quarter compared with the second price of gas has declined. However, Russia has already encouraged by rise of oil and the promise that in the second half of blue fuel podtyanetsya and went. As significantly, earlier in Gazprom were of a different point of view: at the end of 2008, when oil is rapidly deshevela, head of corporate governance Alexei Miller explained that the gas pricing behind from the oil-month edak, at nine, so $ 400 for thousands of cubic meters to Ukraine - this is not a ceiling at all. Well, the logic of the Russian side is simple and clear: the gas must be a lot of gas should be expensive. And to live by the laws of logic that should Ukraine.
Who to help?
Faced with the avalanche gas problems Kiev does not seem to be confident that will be able to cope on their own. In the words of the state is divided leadership necessary to be optimistic (although it is more respect of Yulia Tymoshenko) or a certain dose of skepticism (eg, Viktor Yushchenko continues to remind how disadvantageous for Ukraine on the transit time). In fact, the government does not get tired hint: help those than can (do not raisethe same rates), but within reasonable limits - so credit to the IMF has not yet been planned to allow for payment energodolgov. The main recipients of allusions, as expected, Russia and the European Union. And each side has reacted in its own way.
level of participation in the discussion of the Ukrainian gas problems the Russian side can not be questioned. Moscow with an impressive tenacity continues to remind: Naftogaz one step from the abyss. And, despite the fact that most of the criticism is for export - is in Europe - like the moral pressure on Ukraine, too, can bear fruit. Successful logins psychological impact on the subject of debt except for the emotional satisfaction may be quite substantial, and dividends. One option might be to provide a loan: the situation where one country is sponsoring another in order to repay a debt as, looks quite interesting, but not too optimistic for the debtor. However, while the Kremlin rejected the idea (and about $ 5 billion it already does not go). But another idea (in the words of Vladimir Putin, proposed by the Ukrainian working group) was more enthusiastic. This is a proposal to pay for future content UGS advance payments for the transit of, approximately five years. On the one hand, the idea is quite predictable: Ukraine is already used when paying for gas in transit until the end of 2010, why not repeat a good experience. On the other - for such immediately initiated a mass of questions, most of which relates to fair tariff, which will take into account. Is unlikely that he was pleased by transit-debtor who has not come to market rates for their services. To crown the whole, in the nearest future Ukraine can not speak in too convenient of the applicant. As is known, signed contracts in January, suggest that in 2010 our country will buy some 52 billion cubic meters of gas. Given the reduction in consumption and Ð¿Ð¾Ð´Ð¾Ñ€Ð¾Ð¶Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ blue fuel such volumes seem overly optimistic for the domestic economy. Revise the paragraph arrangements can be, but need to do so until the end of the first half of the previous site review year - that is, until July 1. Good to still believe in the Presidential Secretariat, to and from transit. And to determine the potential degree of loyalty to Gazprom is somewhat difficult.
Pressure on Naftogaz - one side of the coin. Most of the efforts of the Russian part of the information is still sent to the West. The important thing is what always comes back to Moscow, explaining the policy of European partners: if Ukraine does not currently fill UGS (a tie and an expensive gas, it turned out), the following winter in Europe would be fun previous. One of the main reasons for this persistence is likely to be declaration of transmission Ukraine-EU relations. In recent times, Russia is concentrating efforts towards the diversification of routes of energy supplies (the main hopes for the future continue to be North and South Stream). Defamation of Ukraine as a transit in the eyes of Europeans, will help to find the necessary support to these projects. On the other hand, the negative image of Ukraine will certainly affect the dream of Kiev on the new rules of the game: EU countries are buying gas at the border of Ukraine and Russia, and pay for transit to the European rate is true … But, despite the best efforts, Europe has in no hurry to comment on progress conversation friendly talk, but seems to be in Brussels had already begun to think about the possibility of a new gas crisis.
passion for the topic of Russia gas apocalypse time fully coincided with a campaign that is trying to deploy in Europe, the Ukrainian government. During a recent visit to Luxembourg Yulia Tymoshenko in the best tradition of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev explains why representatives of the European Union should help to solve his problems Kiev. This gas is equally necessary as the EU - for use in winter, and for Russia, which requires the repository to upload an extra amount of gas during the summer period. The total happiness of Ukraine, Russia and the EU should be someone to fund, - Yulia Tymoshenko potential partners. Necessary funds, according to the prime minister could provide European banks - such as the EBRD. In Europe, reacted cautiously to the request, but promised to think about. Reflected short - at a meeting of the Coordination Group in Brussels prozuvachali two options: either financial institutions provide credit to Kiev or European companies buy gas and store it in Ukrainian UGS, paying the rent. But if you prefer - and the methods can be combined.
initiative, supported by Brussels, can shift the situation from a dead point. In any case, already the fact that the EU is ready to accept the logic of the Ukrainian side - to achieve. Nevertheless, the declaration of intent to implement them - the way is very long. And know how well it will be (especially given the fact that the option of storing the gas is still a stranger to explore). At the same time, to expect that good Europeans will solve all the problems of Ukraine is not worth it. Technologically, the necessary level of occupancy of Ukrainian storage - only one of the difficulties. On the other: how much gas to buy, under what conditions, where borrowing money to pay for it as given and to collect debts - Ukraine to fight its own. And do it as quickly as possible - a combination of cold season in the campaign may have slabopredskazuemye consequences. Truly, the gas should be prepared for the summer.
Xenia Sokulskaya
Leaders of growth falling to 18.06.2009
Latin America: growth index of leading indicators in the United States poborol the fears of investors
The course increased dollar purchases - the morning review of cash markets
Vinskyi considers disastrous financial condition Укрзализныци
LUKoil will sell to China to 3 million tons of oil
Unhealthy interest
Euro to dollar grows on Friday, the EU states on a course of the economy to sustained recovery
Indexes in the United States rose on Thursday on strong statistics on Friday futures expensive
Indexes in Asia, rising on Friday on strong statdannyh of the United States, shares of exporters expensive