apostate who had resigned the deputy chairman of NBU Alexander Savchenko told why the hryvnia rate has fallen off …
who had resigned the deputy chairman of the National Bank Alexander Savchenko told why the hryvnia exchange rate collapsed and how it can return to a mark of 6.7 UAH /USD.
reason for his dismissal you call the influence of political forces on the activities of the National Bank and its promotion of speculative transactions in the currency market. You can read more?
- It's free interpretation of the journalists. I want to present the role of prosecutor. This is not my style. I wrote a letter of resignation from the NBU because they do not agree with the monetary and exchange rate and monetary policy. The existence of multiple exchange rates: an official, marketing, cash, cashless and others - leads to speculative transactions. On the difference of these courses without any effort to place arbitration operation.
Among the heads of central banks in the world, such actions are considered a manifestation of extremely unprofessional. We also selected the financial institution bought the currency at the official rate of one and the same day sold to another, earning a huge amount of difference. Because the margin between the official exchange rate and market an average of 5%. And when the swing currency swings, and reaches up to 10%.
At the same time, there are many ways to prevent speculation. For example, new rules of currency trading, is to sell currency to those who offer the highest rate. This technology, I brought back from Washington for almost a year ago, when negotiations began for the IMF loan to Ukraine. Conduct is such auctions were one of the requirements of the Fund. I totally understand why they have started just now, and not respecting the technology trades. It is unacceptable when the difference between the rate cut (the minimum rate at which the NBU sells the currency to banks) and the maximum value of the course is 4-5%. Should be 0,1-0,2%. As a result, the auction is also used for arbitrage transactions.
And how is this possible?
- Somehow, some fin-structure very accurately guess NBU rate cut and redeem currency without restrictions. While large fiuchrezhdeniya often somehow wrong. This raises questions. Therefore, for the leaders of the central bank should not be a problem of compliance with ethical standards, and this problem is. After all, when in the hands of huge sums, even one-tenth per cent can make millions of dollars. Since the beginning of the NBU has sold more than $ 8 billion, that is someone allowed to earn about $ 400 million to me such things seem not only unprofessional but immoral.
Perhaps, the regulator should introduce a fixed rate to avoid speculation?
- One banker who worked in the National bank of five or six years, including a year in a management position, I am sure that is exactly what ought to do. Holy simplicity! Indeed, precisely because NBU long kept the exchange rate, we have raised and the current problems. If there was a floating exchange rate, no one dared to take on such a scale currency loans. And we all forgot about the currency risk and began to pay attention solely on the interest rate.
What you do not like about the monetary policy of NBU?
- The fact that different specialists in the field of monetary policy became hostage to poor supervision of banks. Politics became devaluation and inflation, though, could also stimulate lending to the economy. There are two powerful tools of monetary policy: the provision of the National Bank of refinancing short-term loans to banking institutions and the establishment of reserves for passive operation. A long-term refinancing NBU gives money, as a rule, weak banks and has no control over their use. As a result, the lion's share of funds received simply removed from the bank. Example, provides loans to fictitious firms, to withdraw money abroad, bought the dubious securities, or sharply rising wages bank's management. Then, believe me, these funds are converted into cash, and because of the weak currency regulation NBU, stress - management, not control, get on the currency market.
the same time the regulator has tightened reserve requirements for banks, obliging them to keep the special accounts of huge sums. On the one hand, the weak financial institution an opportunity to currency speculation through the NBU refinancing, and on the other - the big banks can not lend to the economy because of the increased reserve requirements. And all this is called monetary policy! I think the problem finstruktury should be eliminated. They are notobliged to receive money from the NBU, which are then used for speculation. And at the same time it is necessary to make healthy banks to lend to the economy, until the application to them of administrative measures.
That is when NBU refinancing agreement with Bank prescribes a ban on the provision of financial institution loans?!
- Yes, the National Bank, as a rule, lay down such conditions. Instead of refinancing if required by the bank limiting the size of fund salaries, non-payment of premium members, etc., a ban on lending. But without waiting for loans economy collapse. There is such a phenomenon: the growth of deposits in banks is possible only with an increase in lending. And vice versa: the smaller the loan, the smaller deposits.
is known that a weak economy may not be stable and strong national currency rate. Perhaps it's not just in NBU? There are the same and the balance of payments deficit, and hence the outflow of currency from the country more than influx.
- In fact, deficits do not exist. There is one interesting item on a balance - the outflow of currency from the banking system. In July the deficit totaled $ 0.9 billion At the same time because of the inept actions of the monetary authorities and fueling political passions in the cash spent $ 1.1 billion aside this factor, we obtain a positive balance of payments. After all, in fact the money did not come out of the country. And if we have a positive balance, then, instead of national currency devaluation should occur reverse. Nevertheless, the hryvnia exchange rate falls. Nonsense!
Many people, incidentally, believes that hryvnia falls because of the high budget deficit. Treasury issues bonds, which monetiziruet NBU, and at some stage get money back on the currency market. It is so?
- During the crisis, monetary authorities should use a soft monetary and fiscal policies, that is, by all means to saturate the economy with money. But in our conditions is necessary to cut off out of the consumer and the foreign exchange markets-ki, to avoid inflation and devaluation. That is unlike the situation for us and, for example, in the U.S. or the UK. There, the money would not go to the currency market.
To avoid inflation and devaluation, the additional infusion should be directed to projects to help users quickly get added value. I believe that the budget deficit in Ukraine should be 10% rather than 6%, as we expect. In absolute terms, 10% - about 100 billion UAH. And do not be afraid of this sum. If this money will be directed not at the consumption and purchase of currencies, and the short-and medium-term projects, then you can minimize inflation and devaluation. For these purposes, you must create a development bank specializing in lending to such projects. Personally, I do not doubt the need to allocate 10 billion UAH to the preparations for Euro 2012. The question is, through what structure to invest. You can learn even 100 billion UAH emissions without unwinding of inflation and devaluation, if the money will be invested through the appropriate tools and effective projects.
you agree with the fact that most of the decisions of the National Bank, especially in the foreign exchange market, are political and not economic in nature?
- even retired from the NBU, I will not destructively criticize his actions. But I will always constructive! Otherwise, I'll be a politician. In general I would say that there are cases of improper communications between the central bank and the authorities. And this is one of the factors destabilizing course. No wonder the IMF need to strengthen the independence of the NBU. De jure, it is alleged, we exist, but de facto, its not at all. And if we are to restore confidence in the hryvnia, get a real exchange rate, it is necessary torestore confidence in the central bank. But autonomy in decision-making is impossible without the control and responsibility. In this regard, we need to lift bank secrecy, which only causes harm. I am speaking for the publication of decisions of the Board of the NBU and committees responsible for the interest rate, monetary policy, the sale of currency, etc. All information should be open. Banking secrecy is needed only where the information leakage allows anyone to make or to cause substantial damage to other market participants.
Your former colleague, the first vice-president NBU Anatoly Shapoval, accusing you of that, criticizing the refinancing of the NBU, you can still not cite a single instance where money has been misused and have been in the foreign exchange market. You can name at least one bank?
- a lot of examples (called finstruktury not published at the request of Alexander Savchenko). And board NBU I have spoken against the provision of refinancing, since their rescue was impossible. In addition, I protested against the repayment of external debts of private financial establishments through the National Bank loans. Why is the decision of the bankruptcy automotive giant GM, as we have some third-banks receive government support, while often paying with yourself, because I myself also, and borrowed money. Do not forget that half the capital raised in the Ukraine - it is our money the same companies that once were taken abroad.
For example, there is one bank - the candidate to receive state support. In its balance sheet hole the size of 8.9 billion UAH. And where the money went, easy to learn. There are all primary information. You just need to investigate. Simply select the 50 most large non-performing loans and for each of them to consolidate the investigator. I assure you, everything will be known within three days. So when asked to name the facts, I find it funny. We have by law, each unpaid loan must end the criminal case.
How will the situation evolve in the coming months?
- As I suspected, the Western countries will begin to emerge from the crisis in the IV quarter of 2009. Behind them will be restored Russia's economy, and somewhere in the II quarter of 2010 the first renewal will begin with us. Unless, of course, their talent for the decisions we do not destroy the banking system.
Can hryvnia devaluation of up to 10 UAH /USD?
- we probably all. The course consists of three components - economic, political and psychological. For example, if we talk about the psychological component, in the event of a crisis an American buys a car, and Ukrainian invests in U.S.. If we consider only economic, but now we get the rate of 6,7-6,8 UAH /USD. All the rest falls on the remaining factor.
Does this mean that if in six months or a year course will not return to a mark of 6,7 UAH /USD, economic catastrophe that will happen?
- I would not say that. But with the current rate of 30% of the loans would be unrecoverable. And if the exchange rate is overvalued, it is possible that foreign banks will simply leave the Ukraine. So it was in Latin America, where, because of the strong exchange rate fluctuations, foreign bankers central bank gave the keys to the offices and packing suitcases.
Nikolai Volkov
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Rate
apostate who had resigned the deputy chairman of NBU Alexander Savchenko told why the hryvnia rate has fallen off …
who had resigned the deputy chairman of the National Bank Alexander Savchenko told why the hryvnia exchange rate collapsed and how it can return to a mark of 6.7 UAH /USD.
reason for his dismissal you call the influence of political forces on the activities of the National Bank and its promotion of speculative transactions in the currency market. You can read more?
- It's free interpretation of the journalists. I want to present the role of prosecutor. This is not my style. I wrote a letter of resignation from the NBU because they do not agree with the monetary and exchange rate and monetary policy. The existence of multiple exchange rates: an official, marketing, cash, cashless and others - leads to speculative transactions. On the difference of these courses without any effort to place arbitration operation.
Among the heads of central banks in the world, such actions are considered a manifestation of extremely unprofessional. We also selected the financial institution bought the currency at the official rate of one and the same day sold to another, earning a huge amount of difference. Because the margin between the official exchange rate and market an average of 5%. And when the swing currency swings, and reaches up to 10%.
At the same time, there are many ways to prevent speculation. For example, new rules of currency trading, is to sell currency to those who offer the highest rate. This technology, I brought back from Washington for almost a year ago, when negotiations began for the IMF loan to Ukraine. Conduct is such auctions were one of the requirements of the Fund. I totally understand why they have started just now, and not respecting the technology trades. It is unacceptable when the difference between the rate cut (the minimum rate at which the NBU sells the currency to banks) and the maximum value of the course is 4-5%. Should be 0,1-0,2%. As a result, the auction is also used for arbitrage transactions.
And how is this possible?
- Somehow, some fin-structure very accurately guess NBU rate cut and redeem currency without restrictions. While large fiuchrezhdeniya often somehow wrong. This raises questions. Therefore, for the leaders of the central bank should not be a problem of compliance with ethical standards, and this problem is. After all, when in the hands of huge sums, even one-tenth per cent can make millions of dollars. Since the beginning of the NBU has sold more than $ 8 billion, that is someone allowed to earn about $ 400 million to me such things seem not only unprofessional but immoral.
Perhaps, the regulator should introduce a fixed rate to avoid speculation?
- One banker who worked in the National bank of five or six years, including a year in a management position, I am sure that is exactly what ought to do. Holy simplicity! Indeed, precisely because NBU long kept the exchange rate, we have raised and the current problems. If there was a floating exchange rate, no one dared to take on such a scale currency loans. And we all forgot about the currency risk and began to pay attention solely on the interest rate.
What you do not like about the monetary policy of NBU?
- The fact that different specialists in the field of monetary policy became hostage to poor supervision of banks. Politics became devaluation and inflation, though, could also stimulate lending to the economy. There are two powerful tools of monetary policy: the provision of the National Bank of refinancing short-term loans to banking institutions and the establishment of reserves for passive operation. A long-term refinancing NBU gives money, as a rule, weak banks and has no control over their use. As a result, the lion's share of funds received simply removed from the bank. Example, provides loans to fictitious firms, to withdraw money abroad, bought the dubious securities, or sharply rising wages bank's management. Then, believe me, these funds are converted into cash, and because of the weak currency regulation NBU, stress - management, not control, get on the currency market.
the same time the regulator has tightened reserve requirements for banks, obliging them to keep the special accounts of huge sums. On the one hand, the weak financial institution an opportunity to currency speculation through the NBU refinancing, and on the other - the big banks can not lend to the economy because of the increased reserve requirements. And all this is called monetary policy! I think the problem finstruktury should be eliminated. They are notobliged to receive money from the NBU, which are then used for speculation. And at the same time it is necessary to make healthy banks to lend to the economy, until the application to them of administrative measures.
That is when NBU refinancing agreement with Bank prescribes a ban on the provision of financial institution loans?!
- Yes, the National Bank, as a rule, lay down such conditions. Instead of refinancing if required by the bank limiting the size of fund salaries, non-payment of premium members, etc., a ban on lending. But without waiting for loans economy collapse. There is such a phenomenon: the growth of deposits in banks is possible only with an increase in lending. And vice versa: the smaller the loan, the smaller deposits.
is known that a weak economy may not be stable and strong national currency rate. Perhaps it's not just in NBU? There are the same and the balance of payments deficit, and hence the outflow of currency from the country more than influx.
- In fact, deficits do not exist. There is one interesting item on a balance - the outflow of currency from the banking system. In July the deficit totaled $ 0.9 billion At the same time because of the inept actions of the monetary authorities and fueling political passions in the cash spent $ 1.1 billion aside this factor, we obtain a positive balance of payments. After all, in fact the money did not come out of the country. And if we have a positive balance, then, instead of national currency devaluation should occur reverse. Nevertheless, the hryvnia exchange rate falls. Nonsense!
Many people, incidentally, believes that hryvnia falls because of the high budget deficit. Treasury issues bonds, which monetiziruet NBU, and at some stage get money back on the currency market. It is so?
- During the crisis, monetary authorities should use a soft monetary and fiscal policies, that is, by all means to saturate the economy with money. But in our conditions is necessary to cut off out of the consumer and the foreign exchange markets-ki, to avoid inflation and devaluation. That is unlike the situation for us and, for example, in the U.S. or the UK. There, the money would not go to the currency market.
To avoid inflation and devaluation, the additional infusion should be directed to projects to help users quickly get added value. I believe that the budget deficit in Ukraine should be 10% rather than 6%, as we expect. In absolute terms, 10% - about 100 billion UAH. And do not be afraid of this sum. If this money will be directed not at the consumption and purchase of currencies, and the short-and medium-term projects, then you can minimize inflation and devaluation. For these purposes, you must create a development bank specializing in lending to such projects. Personally, I do not doubt the need to allocate 10 billion UAH to the preparations for Euro 2012. The question is, through what structure to invest. You can learn even 100 billion UAH emissions without unwinding of inflation and devaluation, if the money will be invested through the appropriate tools and effective projects.
you agree with the fact that most of the decisions of the National Bank, especially in the foreign exchange market, are political and not economic in nature?
- even retired from the NBU, I will not destructively criticize his actions. But I will always constructive! Otherwise, I'll be a politician. In general I would say that there are cases of improper communications between the central bank and the authorities. And this is one of the factors destabilizing course. No wonder the IMF need to strengthen the independence of the NBU. De jure, it is alleged, we exist, but de facto, its not at all. And if we are to restore confidence in the hryvnia, get a real exchange rate, it is necessary torestore confidence in the central bank. But autonomy in decision-making is impossible without the control and responsibility. In this regard, we need to lift bank secrecy, which only causes harm. I am speaking for the publication of decisions of the Board of the NBU and committees responsible for the interest rate, monetary policy, the sale of currency, etc. All information should be open. Banking secrecy is needed only where the information leakage allows anyone to make or to cause substantial damage to other market participants.
Your former colleague, the first vice-president NBU Anatoly Shapoval, accusing you of that, criticizing the refinancing of the NBU, you can still not cite a single instance where money has been misused and have been in the foreign exchange market. You can name at least one bank?
- a lot of examples (called finstruktury not published at the request of Alexander Savchenko). And board NBU I have spoken against the provision of refinancing, since their rescue was impossible. In addition, I protested against the repayment of external debts of private financial establishments through the National Bank loans. Why is the decision of the bankruptcy automotive giant GM, as we have some third-banks receive government support, while often paying with yourself, because I myself also, and borrowed money. Do not forget that half the capital raised in the Ukraine - it is our money the same companies that once were taken abroad.
For example, there is one bank - the candidate to receive state support. In its balance sheet hole the size of 8.9 billion UAH. And where the money went, easy to learn. There are all primary information. You just need to investigate. Simply select the 50 most large non-performing loans and for each of them to consolidate the investigator. I assure you, everything will be known within three days. So when asked to name the facts, I find it funny. We have by law, each unpaid loan must end the criminal case.
How will the situation evolve in the coming months?
- As I suspected, the Western countries will begin to emerge from the crisis in the IV quarter of 2009. Behind them will be restored Russia's economy, and somewhere in the II quarter of 2010 the first renewal will begin with us. Unless, of course, their talent for the decisions we do not destroy the banking system.
Can hryvnia devaluation of up to 10 UAH /USD?
- we probably all. The course consists of three components - economic, political and psychological. For example, if we talk about the psychological component, in the event of a crisis an American buys a car, and Ukrainian invests in U.S.. If we consider only economic, but now we get the rate of 6,7-6,8 UAH /USD. All the rest falls on the remaining factor.
Does this mean that if in six months or a year course will not return to a mark of 6,7 UAH /USD, economic catastrophe that will happen?
- I would not say that. But with the current rate of 30% of the loans would be unrecoverable. And if the exchange rate is overvalued, it is possible that foreign banks will simply leave the Ukraine. So it was in Latin America, where, because of the strong exchange rate fluctuations, foreign bankers central bank gave the keys to the offices and packing suitcases.
Nikolai Volkov
Losses from software piracy in Russia has exceeded 600 million rubles
Putin calls for money from Renault AvtoVAZ
In Germany, women earn 23% less than men
Ukrainian buyer develops Internet
Last month the demand for goods in the network has grown by 4 %…
Port: circus with the consensus for ammonia …
sixth in the last decade and a half attempt privatization IPF has provided a rare spectacle of a country …
IMF: European Central Bank should keep rates low
Alcohol failure
The Dangers producers spirits the next increase in excise duties on alcohol …
Too much money
Lack of money - the root of all evil - thought the American writer Mark Twain …
Named perfect resort Russia, where Muscovites would like to have their housing