second quarter is given for the Ukrainian banks in the rich event. Even last fall, the media headlines are not rained so many news about domestic finuchrezhdeniyah. Especially, it was a lot of variety -tions: nationalization, recapitalizations, and restructurings dokapitalizatsy. As a result, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, banks have completed half of the result of minus 10.2 bln.
Compared with the previous quarterly loss of $ 7 bn. the situation has worsened by 45%. The bankers quietly unveiled by the regulator: The pier, many of them already knew about the impending loss. If the situation will evolve at the same rate, on the basis of 2009, the banking sector could show losses of $ 22 bn.
Acquittal predictions
Based on the semi-annual results of the Ukrainian banks, the banking system is in a dire situation, the improvement in the coming six months which is not planned - analyst sentenced IG TASK Vadim Emets. The company estimates that in 2010, domestic banks have, at best, there would be no need to further increase reserves and increase in regulatory capital. The deteriorating situation in the financial sector show how the overall performance of the banking system, and finrezultaty individual banks, which have continued to deteriorate in the second quarter of 2009.
Thus, the official level of problem loans in July, the indicator reached 5.4%. The share of reserves in the loan portfolio at the end of June amounted to 10.8%, continuing to come close to our estimates, the real level of bad loans (15%). We reiterate our view that the significant deterioration of official statistics on the quality of banks' loan portfolio in the last three months only shows the approximation of the formal level of problem loans to their real level, which amounts to 15% in March and did not change. We explain the difference between the official rate of the volume of problem bank loans and its real policy banks, which did not immediately recognize the credits hopeless and try to extend or refinance the majority of them, expecting that the payment discipline of borrowers will soon be improved, - says in a report of ING Bank Ukraine.
Experts also stress the fact that the increase in unemployment and the devaluation of the currency and complicated already difficult situation in the banking market. A great danger of bears is also uncertain Ukrprombank and Nadra Bank, the elimination of which forms the conditions for the next cycle of crisis in the sector and social tensions. At the beginning of last week to exaggerate information on upcoming Ukrprombank eliminate the transfer of customer accounts in Oschadbank. Such information appeared and Nadra Bank. Even without formal statements by experts are inclined to the elimination of these finuchrezhdeniya will be much easier and cheaper than healthy financially.
According to Vadim Emtsa, more optimistic experts estimated the value to recapitalize the banking system. Our mistake was the underestimation of uncoordinated policies of key officials, which resulted in lost time to recapitalize and return confidence interbank community and the public, as well as lack of credit in the economy - justify the projections in the second quarter Emets.
company Troika Dialog Ukraine a more optimistic mood. Positive is that banks are actively aware of the problems that have accumulated in their loan portfolios, and the shape of their reserves. I think that the big banks from the developed systematic approach to risk management process will identify problem assets and reserve for another two quarters of 2010 and start from scratch - I am sure the senior analyst of IC Troika Dialog Ukraine Yevgeny Grebenyuk. The expert said that about the same thing a year ago did American banks, in order to keep all the problems in 2008.
For example, the U.S. JPMorgan Chase Co. received in the first half of $ 4.86 billion net profit. The Bank led the list of the most stable banking institutions in the world, and from next year, plans to significantly increase the salaries of its employees. In addition, JPMorgan Chase Co. plans to earn a toxic assets absorbed in the past year, Washington Mutual around $ 29 billion profit through the difference between the price at which those assets are taken into account, and the actual cash flows generated by service their mortgage loan borrowers.
pleased the market, Goldman Sachs, whose net profit in the second fiscal quarter was $ 3.44 billion, which one and a half times higher than the expectations of experts. In June, Goldman Sachs has returned to the Ministry of Finance of the U.S. $ 10 billion, and the first eight months of investment the company paid preferred dividends of $ 318 million We are pleased that the payment of dividends and redemption warrant totaling $ 1.4 billion represents an annualized yield of 23% for American taxpayers. Such yield indicates that the state support went to the benefit of the financial system, our company and our shareholders , - proud of the head of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blenkfayn.
proved even more surprises in the reporting Citigroup, whose net profit for the second quarter was $ 4.3 billion, however, rejoice in this case is premature. As expected, experts on Wall Street, the Bank received a net operating loss of $ 2.3 billion, but through the sale of part of Citi were able to go in the plus. However, not all U.S. banks as a positive picture. For example, Morgan Stanley net loss for the first half of 2009 totaled $ 345 million, while during the same period a year earlier finuchrezhdenie received a net profit of $ 2.08 billion
Overall, the mood in the business centers of New York a much more optimistic than in the offices of the Ukrainian banks. Until the end of this year, it is expected that the majority of American finuchrezhdeny give the State funds and the return to stability, despite the fact that an estimated Moody s Investors Service, to be written off yet $ 470 billion
Ukrainian experts are not so clear: at best, the banking system returns to generate profits only in the first quarter of 2010. And the main hope in the large systemic banks, the profits which it might be to override the losses smaller finuchrezhdeny have all the next year.
semi outcomes
Thus, in the second quarter of the Ukrainian banking system formed some doubles trend. For example, the two state banks and Ukreximbank Oschadbank thanks to the support of its main shareholder confidently move up the capital, assets and profits. At the end of semester Ukreximbank received a net profit of 11.2 mln. Oschadbank, according to Vice-Chairman of the Board Sergey Podrezova, managed to earn in the first half of 754 million UAH., Which corresponds to the planned volume. The state of the banking system as a whole in the first half was difficult, but there is hope for stabilizing the situation in the second half, - noted Sergey Podrezov. However, market experts skeptical about the positive results of state bank, accusing the latter in regard to finrezultata still outstanding payments on credit Naftogaz.
majority of the Ukrainian banks have nothing to surprise the market. At the end of semester Prominvestbank showed a loss of $ 375.2 million UAH., Bank Forum - 283.3 mln., Alfa Bank (Ukraine) - 192,8 million UAH., Bank Finance and Credit - 187.4 mln. VTB Bank (Ukraine) and Swedbank Invest, although losses were in the second quarter, but the results remained in the half-plus: 1,7 mln. and 162 thousand UAH. respectively.
Ukraine's largest finuchrezhdeniyu PrivatBank succeeded in the first half, not only to earn 405.3 million UAH. but also to build assets. The growth of assets PrivatBank the reduction of assets in the banking system of Ukraine in the current year confirms our view that, with a large proportion of the bank in the market and support from its shareholders to influence the economic downturn, the finuchrezhdenie were not so substantial as to other banks - considered the experts of ING Bank Ukraine. However, problems may still occur in the next reporting period. During the second quarter of the ratio of reserves to cover losses from lending to total loans increased from 14.6 to 15.5%, significantly higher than the national average on the Ukrainian banking system (10.8% in June) and could mean that the quality of Bank's loan portfolio is at a level below the average for the sector.
An interesting situation exists in Rayffazen Bank Aval and Ukrsotsbank. These two finuchrezhdeniya have a significant difference in financial results for the first half: minus 1.1 bln. and plus 61.7 mln., respectively, while one other major nation-wide network banks with foreign capital, which are subject to the general systemic risk. During the second quarter, Raiffeisen Bank Aval grow 716.0 mln. losses, while Ukrsotsbank received 7,5 million grn. profits. If you rely on the assumption of uniform initial conditions of entering into crisis, as well as staying in the same conditions, banks are more likely to demonstrate the synchronicity of the dynamics of financial results. In the case of the two banks we are seeing is diametrically opposite to the movement of indicators, - notes Vadim Emets.
partly explains the situation that Raiffeisen Bank Aval in the second quarter more significantly grow assets for depreciation of credits. During the second quarter for that purpose, the bank sent 1.3 billion UAH. (from 9 to 12% ofthe loan portfolio), while Ukrsotsbank - only 580.6 million UAH. (from 6 to 7% of the loan portfolio), while the loan portfolio Ukrsotsbank to 24.1% less than those of Raiffeisen Bank Aval.
Raiffeisen Bank Aval has sent more resources on the reservation, even taking into account the margin loan portfolios. Also we can assume that there are differences in accounting procedures, which contribute to significant write-off of Raiffeisen Bank Aval - sure Emets. Meanwhile, a senior analyst IC Troika Dialog Ukraine Evgenia Grebenyuk opinion otherwise. Ukrsotsbank has always been one of the most profitable banks in the market. Such a business model and now allows them to remain profitable - I am sure an expert, recommending not to make conclusions on the semester, and await the results of the year. The estimated analytical department IG TASK, most likely the third and fourth quarters would be unprofitable for Ukrsotsbank, as the need to increase the reservation remains valid, and financial results is not enough to establish the necessary reserves. Experts also believe that the RBA will continue building reserves in the next quarter and is likely to bring them up to 15%.
exchange earnings
As the opportunities for earnings in the second quarter of the Ukrainian banks remains low, many finuchrezhdeniya continued to speculate on the exchange rate. The leader of the group of advisers NBU Valery Litvitsky chapters have already made on this occasion their dissatisfaction, pointing to the prospect of a lack of assistance to the regulator in case the Trust will face problems. We are surprised that some finuchrezhdeniya worked for a short speculative result and did not see his interest in that the exchange rate stability has helped them to cope with currency loans. Amazing shortsightedness - Litvitsky said. - Therefore wishes to encourage the banks that have taken a great interest speculation to ensure that they do not cut bough, on which sit: If they do not stop, you can sit on the count from where they had and the National Bank did not snitch.
Last week, the NBU обрадовал Bankers new decree number 414. On the third of August, banks will be obliged to transfer 40% of the amount of reserves in a special account at National Bank. In contrast, funds on correspondent accounts, funds, banks listed on the Special Account will not be available to them. NBU considers that such measures would reduce the possibility finuchrezhdeny to speculate on the currency market and reduce devalvatsionnoe pressure. Experts believe that the IG Socrates, The National Bank can achieve its goals and weaken devalvatsionnyh one of the factors limiting the ability of banks for short-term currency speculation through the use of mandatory reserves. It is expected that the decision of NBU will have a negligible effect on the rate of lending in the interbank market, as some finuchrezhdeniya can feel the lack of funds to make payments. Also, because of the zero rate reserve for the banks that decision further enhances the attractiveness of grivnevyh deposits compared with the exchange.
Elena Moshenets
Growth of U.S. indexes at the opening after the publication of GDP data for the second quarter allowed the Russian sites to leave for the weekend «in the black»
Rosinter published operating results for quarter 2 and 1 half of 2009
The only factor that could trigger the rally with updated local maxima - the care of quotations of oil above the range of $ 73-73.5 per barrel
United States: the economic recovery supported national action
Hugo Chavez puts sand in the wheels developers Venezuela
Yushchenko: We need to concentrate around the ideas that will give businesses incentives to return to construction
Russian Stock Market in July has again been among the outsiders emerging markets, despite an increase in
USA: July superperformans markets
What I enjoy Youlin thousands?
Six-month loss
second quarter is given for the Ukrainian banks in the rich event. Even last fall, the media headlines are not rained so many news about domestic finuchrezhdeniyah. Especially, it was a lot of variety -tions: nationalization, recapitalizations, and restructurings dokapitalizatsy. As a result, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, banks have completed half of the result of minus 10.2 bln.
Compared with the previous quarterly loss of $ 7 bn. the situation has worsened by 45%. The bankers quietly unveiled by the regulator: The pier, many of them already knew about the impending loss. If the situation will evolve at the same rate, on the basis of 2009, the banking sector could show losses of $ 22 bn.
Acquittal predictions
Based on the semi-annual results of the Ukrainian banks, the banking system is in a dire situation, the improvement in the coming six months which is not planned - analyst sentenced IG TASK Vadim Emets. The company estimates that in 2010, domestic banks have, at best, there would be no need to further increase reserves and increase in regulatory capital. The deteriorating situation in the financial sector show how the overall performance of the banking system, and finrezultaty individual banks, which have continued to deteriorate in the second quarter of 2009.
Thus, the official level of problem loans in July, the indicator reached 5.4%. The share of reserves in the loan portfolio at the end of June amounted to 10.8%, continuing to come close to our estimates, the real level of bad loans (15%). We reiterate our view that the significant deterioration of official statistics on the quality of banks' loan portfolio in the last three months only shows the approximation of the formal level of problem loans to their real level, which amounts to 15% in March and did not change. We explain the difference between the official rate of the volume of problem bank loans and its real policy banks, which did not immediately recognize the credits hopeless and try to extend or refinance the majority of them, expecting that the payment discipline of borrowers will soon be improved, - says in a report of ING Bank Ukraine.
Experts also stress the fact that the increase in unemployment and the devaluation of the currency and complicated already difficult situation in the banking market. A great danger of bears is also uncertain Ukrprombank and Nadra Bank, the elimination of which forms the conditions for the next cycle of crisis in the sector and social tensions. At the beginning of last week to exaggerate information on upcoming Ukrprombank eliminate the transfer of customer accounts in Oschadbank. Such information appeared and Nadra Bank. Even without formal statements by experts are inclined to the elimination of these finuchrezhdeniya will be much easier and cheaper than healthy financially.
According to Vadim Emtsa, more optimistic experts estimated the value to recapitalize the banking system. Our mistake was the underestimation of uncoordinated policies of key officials, which resulted in lost time to recapitalize and return confidence interbank community and the public, as well as lack of credit in the economy - justify the projections in the second quarter Emets.
company Troika Dialog Ukraine a more optimistic mood. Positive is that banks are actively aware of the problems that have accumulated in their loan portfolios, and the shape of their reserves. I think that the big banks from the developed systematic approach to risk management process will identify problem assets and reserve for another two quarters of 2010 and start from scratch - I am sure the senior analyst of IC Troika Dialog Ukraine Yevgeny Grebenyuk. The expert said that about the same thing a year ago did American banks, in order to keep all the problems in 2008.
For example, the U.S. JPMorgan Chase Co. received in the first half of $ 4.86 billion net profit. The Bank led the list of the most stable banking institutions in the world, and from next year, plans to significantly increase the salaries of its employees. In addition, JPMorgan Chase Co. plans to earn a toxic assets absorbed in the past year, Washington Mutual around $ 29 billion profit through the difference between the price at which those assets are taken into account, and the actual cash flows generated by service their mortgage loan borrowers.
pleased the market, Goldman Sachs, whose net profit in the second fiscal quarter was $ 3.44 billion, which one and a half times higher than the expectations of experts. In June, Goldman Sachs has returned to the Ministry of Finance of the U.S. $ 10 billion, and the first eight months of investment the company paid preferred dividends of $ 318 million We are pleased that the payment of dividends and redemption warrant totaling $ 1.4 billion represents an annualized yield of 23% for American taxpayers. Such yield indicates that the state support went to the benefit of the financial system, our company and our shareholders , - proud of the head of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blenkfayn.
proved even more surprises in the reporting Citigroup, whose net profit for the second quarter was $ 4.3 billion, however, rejoice in this case is premature. As expected, experts on Wall Street, the Bank received a net operating loss of $ 2.3 billion, but through the sale of part of Citi were able to go in the plus. However, not all U.S. banks as a positive picture. For example, Morgan Stanley net loss for the first half of 2009 totaled $ 345 million, while during the same period a year earlier finuchrezhdenie received a net profit of $ 2.08 billion
Overall, the mood in the business centers of New York a much more optimistic than in the offices of the Ukrainian banks. Until the end of this year, it is expected that the majority of American finuchrezhdeny give the State funds and the return to stability, despite the fact that an estimated Moody s Investors Service, to be written off yet $ 470 billion
Ukrainian experts are not so clear: at best, the banking system returns to generate profits only in the first quarter of 2010. And the main hope in the large systemic banks, the profits which it might be to override the losses smaller finuchrezhdeny have all the next year.
semi outcomes
Thus, in the second quarter of the Ukrainian banking system formed some doubles trend. For example, the two state banks and Ukreximbank Oschadbank thanks to the support of its main shareholder confidently move up the capital, assets and profits. At the end of semester Ukreximbank received a net profit of 11.2 mln. Oschadbank, according to Vice-Chairman of the Board Sergey Podrezova, managed to earn in the first half of 754 million UAH., Which corresponds to the planned volume. The state of the banking system as a whole in the first half was difficult, but there is hope for stabilizing the situation in the second half, - noted Sergey Podrezov. However, market experts skeptical about the positive results of state bank, accusing the latter in regard to finrezultata still outstanding payments on credit Naftogaz.
majority of the Ukrainian banks have nothing to surprise the market. At the end of semester Prominvestbank showed a loss of $ 375.2 million UAH., Bank Forum - 283.3 mln., Alfa Bank (Ukraine) - 192,8 million UAH., Bank Finance and Credit - 187.4 mln. VTB Bank (Ukraine) and Swedbank Invest, although losses were in the second quarter, but the results remained in the half-plus: 1,7 mln. and 162 thousand UAH. respectively.
Ukraine's largest finuchrezhdeniyu PrivatBank succeeded in the first half, not only to earn 405.3 million UAH. but also to build assets. The growth of assets PrivatBank the reduction of assets in the banking system of Ukraine in the current year confirms our view that, with a large proportion of the bank in the market and support from its shareholders to influence the economic downturn, the finuchrezhdenie were not so substantial as to other banks - considered the experts of ING Bank Ukraine. However, problems may still occur in the next reporting period. During the second quarter of the ratio of reserves to cover losses from lending to total loans increased from 14.6 to 15.5%, significantly higher than the national average on the Ukrainian banking system (10.8% in June) and could mean that the quality of Bank's loan portfolio is at a level below the average for the sector.
An interesting situation exists in Rayffazen Bank Aval and Ukrsotsbank. These two finuchrezhdeniya have a significant difference in financial results for the first half: minus 1.1 bln. and plus 61.7 mln., respectively, while one other major nation-wide network banks with foreign capital, which are subject to the general systemic risk. During the second quarter, Raiffeisen Bank Aval grow 716.0 mln. losses, while Ukrsotsbank received 7,5 million grn. profits. If you rely on the assumption of uniform initial conditions of entering into crisis, as well as staying in the same conditions, banks are more likely to demonstrate the synchronicity of the dynamics of financial results. In the case of the two banks we are seeing is diametrically opposite to the movement of indicators, - notes Vadim Emets.
partly explains the situation that Raiffeisen Bank Aval in the second quarter more significantly grow assets for depreciation of credits. During the second quarter for that purpose, the bank sent 1.3 billion UAH. (from 9 to 12% ofthe loan portfolio), while Ukrsotsbank - only 580.6 million UAH. (from 6 to 7% of the loan portfolio), while the loan portfolio Ukrsotsbank to 24.1% less than those of Raiffeisen Bank Aval.
Raiffeisen Bank Aval has sent more resources on the reservation, even taking into account the margin loan portfolios. Also we can assume that there are differences in accounting procedures, which contribute to significant write-off of Raiffeisen Bank Aval - sure Emets. Meanwhile, a senior analyst IC Troika Dialog Ukraine Evgenia Grebenyuk opinion otherwise. Ukrsotsbank has always been one of the most profitable banks in the market. Such a business model and now allows them to remain profitable - I am sure an expert, recommending not to make conclusions on the semester, and await the results of the year. The estimated analytical department IG TASK, most likely the third and fourth quarters would be unprofitable for Ukrsotsbank, as the need to increase the reservation remains valid, and financial results is not enough to establish the necessary reserves. Experts also believe that the RBA will continue building reserves in the next quarter and is likely to bring them up to 15%.
exchange earnings
As the opportunities for earnings in the second quarter of the Ukrainian banks remains low, many finuchrezhdeniya continued to speculate on the exchange rate. The leader of the group of advisers NBU Valery Litvitsky chapters have already made on this occasion their dissatisfaction, pointing to the prospect of a lack of assistance to the regulator in case the Trust will face problems. We are surprised that some finuchrezhdeniya worked for a short speculative result and did not see his interest in that the exchange rate stability has helped them to cope with currency loans. Amazing shortsightedness - Litvitsky said. - Therefore wishes to encourage the banks that have taken a great interest speculation to ensure that they do not cut bough, on which sit: If they do not stop, you can sit on the count from where they had and the National Bank did not snitch.
Last week, the NBU обрадовал Bankers new decree number 414. On the third of August, banks will be obliged to transfer 40% of the amount of reserves in a special account at National Bank. In contrast, funds on correspondent accounts, funds, banks listed on the Special Account will not be available to them. NBU considers that such measures would reduce the possibility finuchrezhdeny to speculate on the currency market and reduce devalvatsionnoe pressure. Experts believe that the IG Socrates, The National Bank can achieve its goals and weaken devalvatsionnyh one of the factors limiting the ability of banks for short-term currency speculation through the use of mandatory reserves. It is expected that the decision of NBU will have a negligible effect on the rate of lending in the interbank market, as some finuchrezhdeniya can feel the lack of funds to make payments. Also, because of the zero rate reserve for the banks that decision further enhances the attractiveness of grivnevyh deposits compared with the exchange.
Elena Moshenets
Growth of U.S. indexes at the opening after the publication of GDP data for the second quarter allowed the Russian sites to leave for the weekend «in the black»
Rosinter published operating results for quarter 2 and 1 half of 2009
The only factor that could trigger the rally with updated local maxima - the care of quotations of oil above the range of $ 73-73.5 per barrel
United States: the economic recovery supported national action
Hugo Chavez puts sand in the wheels developers Venezuela
Yushchenko: We need to concentrate around the ideas that will give businesses incentives to return to construction
Russian Stock Market in July has again been among the outsiders emerging markets, despite an increase in
USA: July superperformans markets
What I enjoy Youlin thousands?