The banking system one year after the beginning of the crisis: losses and gains, threats and prospects Exactly 12 months ago, the life of the domestic banking system and its customers moved to a qualitatively new dimension to …

Exactly 12 months ago, the life of the domestic banking system and its customers moved to a qualitatively new dimension. October 7, 2008 due to this customer panic and the massive outflow of deposits a bank regulator imposed a temporary administration in one of the largest system of Ukrainian banks - Prominvestbank. On October 13 came into force a moratorium on early withdrawal of deposits, as well as an increase in bank loan portfolios.

same time the National Bank introduced a 5 per cent limit on the deviation between the buy and sell foreign currency cash was an attempt to restrain by the break loose the devaluation of the hryvnia. Problems of the domestic economy and its banking system, particularly distant and abstract for most people, suddenly came into the everyday lives of Ukrainians have hurt their wallets and savings.

Since then, the banking system is lost in the public consciousness status of the main bridge to Europe and the locomotive of the economy, and to the bankers, the designated culprits almost all Ukrainian Bed, sprinkled with the flow of accusations, claims, charges, and even curses.

During these 12 months, bankers and their clients have settled down a bit in the new reality, and even priterlis a new system of relationships. Passion and the storm gradually subsided and died down. But does that mean, that is behind all the most serious threats? Have learned and what they had done over the past year, bankers, how serious their problems today? Does the state is making efforts to help solve these problems? After all, as already shown in practice, today's headaches financiers tomorrow can cause paralysis of the entire country.

It is these issues we have dedicated our round table, inviting the leaders of the views of the banking system. At the invitation ZN responded chairmen of Raiffeisen Bank Aval Raiffeisen International, Vladimir, Ukrsibbank - Sergei Naumov, OTP Bank (Ukraine) - Dmitry Zinkov, VTB Bank (Ukraine) - Vadim Pushkarev, Bank Finance and Credit — Vladimir Khlyvnyuk, subsidiary bank Sberbank of Russia - Igor Jusko, Bank Starokievskaya - Yuri Yaremenko, as well as vice-president of Alfa Bank (Ukraine), Roman Shpek and head nabsoveta Platinum Bank Yuri Blaschuk.

U ZN has already accumulated a good experience in dealing with bankers - five months ago, most of them were going for our round table. But this time we decided to go a little further. And not just listen to the financiers, but also tried to generalize their experiences.

Dmitry Zinkov: - Over the past year, of course, much has changed in the sensations, and even in the understanding of the banking business. From the refined white collar, which collected deposits and were able to beautiful to distribute loans, we have become quite cynical of people who learn to drive out of the book debts and try to speak about the necessity of civilized lobbying.

What have the past 12 months? Against the background of a banking crisis was homelessness in this country: we have not received such support from the state, which would help us become stronger and stronger. The banking system was somehow assigned to the presidential branch. Somehow it sounds strange, but it happened because of support from the parliament had very little and only occasionally - a dialogue with the government.

now the most serious problem - cleaning of our balance of problem loans. I think that the topic of conversation may be so-called morality of payment (if you literally translate the English term payment moral), the attitude of society to take up credit. And also what created the culture around it that people say that writing mass media. And, finally, the bankers themselves - they are afraid to talk about it openly or not.

This problem should be discussed, it may become the subject of many round tables and discussions: when our people finally learn and willing to return the debts and when they start to really blame for the fact that they were not repaid on time.

I would also like to reach a common understanding as to what is our problem: the lack of regulation and the weakness or absence and the perversion of the use of legislative acts? After arguing about why Ukraine is not working mortgage arrangements not amortize, you can speak at length about the inadequacy of our laws, and compare it with others and say that in our legislation already has many strengths. But we simply did not know how or for some reason can not use.

You have to understand features of the country: 25 regions, 25 executive systems, 25 of the judiciary and justice. In each area - its chief and its working principles. And while we're not built a single working practices at the country level - a single between banks, united in the same bank and across the country, then probably, this system will not work effectively. And we will go for a long time, as now, clamped and drooping, because they do not begin to lend because of the 'dirty' balance sheets and other problems that do not know how to work.

Vladimir Khlyvnyuk: - With regard to the past year. I believe that we are lucky that the economic crisis has become an alternative to some military reallotments zones of influence.

But, unfortunately, in Ukraine was quite a lot of catalysts and their own crisis. Recall that the original catalyst was the situation with Prominvestbank, which I believe was created artificially. The banking system was not ready for the crisis, and in general the system of governance proved to be ineffective, allowing the crisis to develop in Ukraine as it develops.

We knew that we had no acceptable legislative and legal framework for the functioning of a civilized economy and the banking sector, but did not know that, unlike in Western countries, the Ukrainian branch of government and can not find a consolidating platform for joint efforts to overcome crisis.

clear that under the current integration of Ukraine into the global economy could hardly have worked better. If, in metallurgy and chemistry, domestic production can not offer anything the world markets more competitive, the lack of adequate demand for the products of these industries in the country, of course, the cost still would have put us on our knees.

But the domestic financial system could be much better to keep the strike. Yes, we understand much, much anticipated, but that did not prepare in advance effective countermeasures for situations B, which demonstrated the same example with Prominvestbank.

Personally for me as a banker is very important also that we have seen many of its clients in a different light. As they say, understood, he works with. So they established for themselves a new, very important criteria by which we will henceforth choose their clients, and the principles on which we will build with them their work.

I am quite different eyes looking at their employees. However, probably, and they are on me, too. And, unfortunately, much more acute now realize that the personnel policy of the banks should be largely different.

Yuri Blaschuk: - In my opinion, to analyze the state of the banking system should be in conjunction with the entire financial system. That is to say about the financial health of the state in general, because it - the main factor for our business.

actual figures show that the situation is different from that as we try to teach her esteemed officials. According to former Minister of Finance of Ukraine, the real budget deficit of more than 12% of GDP. This is - alarming numbers. In this fiscal methods washed circulating funds of enterprises. A further fall in output and GDP is threatening to further imbalance - both in financial and monetary system in Ukraine.

With this budget deficit will be very difficult to predict the rate of national currency, supported now more or less balanced, export /import of goods and serious infusion from the IMF. How to reduce the deficit - is a key issue for the preservation of financial stability.

So next year will be very important. How to return more than $ 20 billion of foreign loans to be repaid in the next year? How to keep the national currency to the extent that will ensure a controlled level of defaults on foreign currency loans both legal and natural persons? As in this situation to ensure the priority investment sectors of the economy?

the impression that we are quite careless attitude towards such economic categories as domestic debt. For eight months he had almost a half times, reaching 280 billion UAH. Perhaps, this figure is still less threatening in terms of absolute numbers, but it is important to see the permissible limits and sources of repayment in the future.

Despite the fact that the banking system has already decided the issue of liquidity (I will not say how), reaching its sustainable level, there are no less serious problem - a low-quality assets. As a consequence, loss-making activities, lack of capital, etc. Therefore, we need to involve state and private investors to work with and adversely classified assets to work to improve the legislative field.

processes of mergers, acquisitions, purchase of assets and liabilities, ultimately, the elimination of problem banks should go much faster.

Yuri Yaremenko: - I have a pessimistic attitude to what was, and the same - to what will and what awaits us. The quality of public policy, and hence on the quality of the authorities have said. After the election, absolutely nothing will change, because they want to lead the country - and will - the same people. And no radical changes we have not expected.

We can not change the power. Each of us - just vote in the election, and then if he goes to a polling station. But I would like us to start with myself - have tried to consolidate our system. In many countries there is a national priority, we do not even have the same priority creditor. And in the near future and will not be. So to improve the quality of our work, except us, nobody will. And here the important role played by the consolidation and mutual respect in the banking environment, which, unfortunately, almost non-existent. Here we have to work very seriously and protect themselves first and foremost a high quality of work, ethics and morality.

We crisis teaches nothing

Igor Jusko: - In fact, over the past year nothing has changed, and, by and large, we also have not changed. You can bring a lot of examples that illustrate this very well.

- That is the crisis has not given one opportunity for renewal and purification, about which so much has been said?

Jusko: - No, the crisis in this case played the role of the corrector. If we are talking about balance sheets of assets, then there was a price correction, high-quality, but nothing has changed in essence. I recall how, nearly two years ago, we worked together in the interview that ZN published in December 2007. This interview was so much I suffered, I still clearly remember phrases that when spoken. I remember well the thesis that the staff of Mirrors made in the headline: There is a critical need to prevent excessive dependence of the country and its economy from external borrowing.

At that time, the external debt of Ukraine, including corporate, was about $ 70 billion One of my last sentence in the interview: I do not know what should be the external debt, 100 or $ 200 billion, but we necessarily upremsya forehead on the wall. But it was a voice crying in the wilderness. No reaction from the top, no professional discussions, nothing.

duty came to exactly $ 100 billion, and we got what we got.

Exactly six months ago at a meeting of the National Bank, under the transcript, I said: A new method of calculating foreign exchange position - a ticking time bomb that will blow up the banking system from within. We are with you, bankers, understand this perfectly. I for myself wondering: if all banks will exchange position in accordance with the methodology, the 15% movement rate would mean nearly a billion dollars of losses for the banking system due to exchange rate differences. On capital, on extra-evaluation of reserves that need to be doformirovyvat.

Today, all the stretch at least three penny to put in capital to somehow regain its relevance, and while we are sitting on a powder keg. But before anyone cares? A new explosion would occur. The only question is when - this fall, spring or fall next year?

crisis gave a chance to do very important things: change the way of thinking, public opinion, finally to start work for the future. But we are not ready for this. Because the crisis has taught us only by some techniques. You can talk about a large number of problems have accumulated in the banking sector: the large and small banks, on short-term liabilities, toxic assets, imperfect methods, obsolete products, etc. But the main thing is that we are not changing. Our attitude has not changed. The attitude of society to the banks does not change. The ratio of power to the economy and the financial sector in particular - does not change. And then what?

- We, on the contrary, it seemed that the attitude to the bankers in society has changed dramatically and seriously, and not for the better. A year ago, the banker was almost no other, who can borrow money or get good interest rates on deposit, but now you at least do not like, and often hated. You is not scared?

Jusko: - There is a saying: Investors have short memories. On average, it is believed that for three years. Similarly, investors: will be held for three years, get tired of them keep the money under the pillow, pritaschat it money in the bank - until the next crisis. And we are again treading on the same rake.

Here I periodically communicate with various officials on one of the perennial themes - the pension reform. This is the byword. The law was passed in 2003. There is a ready legal framework. What should I do? Cabinet - prepare normativku take account deficit of the Pension Fund and to find ways to cover the current budget over several years, because of pension contributions will go to individual retirement accounts. But since then, for six years, nothing has been done.

I talked with one high-ranking official, he asked: What do I need to mortgage actually work? Answer: We need investment resources in the hryvnia. - And you need to do? - We need a pension reform, reform of social insurance. - And when will be the effect? - In three years. Know what the reaction was? So long? Bury

What can you say? No social order. There is no political culture of the people: Three years? No, it is not interesting …

From dreamers - in realistic

Khlyvnyuk: - Returning to the theme of love-hating bankers. Change the sign of relationships and trust funds - are a few different things. In the United States, for example, after the Great Depression of the 30-ies of the last century, a positive attitude to the bankers was restored only to the mid 70's. That did not stop to grow deposits and savings in U.S. banks.

Vladimir Lavrenchuk: - My first comment - about the bankers. If we loved so much in September and were ready to tear to shreds in October, just two or three weeks after the onset of panic on deposits, this means that the old love has been elusive.

I would have shared the last 12 months in two phases. First - this is panic. Second - when people are tired of the panic and once again began to properly treat the bankers. The events of the year changes, it seems to me obvious.

Compared with October last year, last October, people in the first place, tired and, secondly, have gained experience. Knocks - do not knock on the doors of banks, deposits will still have to wait … I have experienced several banking crises. But such a serious crisis was not yet - have in mind the depth and duration. Such a mass panic (as a whole in the sector, not only in individual banks) was not. And psychologically, I think many ordinary Ukrainians and bankers have a new experience. New reality perceived through the prism of one's own values. The crisis will end when the new conditions of the people en masse will perceive as a new reality.

One of my foreign colleagues in the Bank said that Ukrainians - dreamers. They sincerely believe that very soon, need to wait a little longer - and there will come true paradise, and all will be Bentley and cottages in the Training Center. All buy expensive things, they took into debt. We thought that can take credit for 100 thousand dollars at a salary of $ 500 Is it really possible?

And if the crisis debunked this perception of the world, he has brought undeniable positive. I think one lesson of the crisis that all Ukrainians are becoming more realistic, pragmatic, stop hoping that in six months it will all pass and then come the golden age of expensive cars and four-storey houses.

more people will accept this pragmatic approach, the more positive will be shifts in consciousness and is much easier - the consequences of the crisis. The company may be other, more pragmatic and accept the difficulties, as a reality rather than as a temporary problem.