The exam for the new government

participants in the financial press club gathered to discuss economic issues that should decide the new power …

information on how to achieve financial stability and revive the economy, discussed the executive director of the National Bank of Igor Shumylo, director of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting, National Academy of Sciences Valery Geyets, chairman of the Finance and Credit “Vladimir Hlyvniuk, director of macroeconomic forecasting department of the Ministry Finance, Vladimir Parnyuk, Advisor to the Minister of Economics Sergiy Yaremenko and head the main service of socio-economic development of the Presidential Secretariat Roman Zhukovsky.

findings of “Mirror of the Week” after the debate, were not very reassuring: banks are choking in the low-quality assets, budget, lose weight, and power and did not think to take steps to reform the economy and the resumption of lending. If such a “masterful disorder continue after the election, the economy itself will start the process of cleansing of non-professional management by default.

problems macroeconomic stability

Obviously, the most important matter of concern now, everyone - this is how to keep today”s shaky financial stability and the start of the stability of the process of economic recovery. The good and the reasons for this are: economic activity in Ukraine during the last three quarters restored. This is evidenced by the comparative assessment of GDP growth to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), made by the National Bank. Third consecutive quarter of growth is observed relative to previous quarters: 4,5-2,5-2,3% “, - says Igor Shumilo. But to restore the pre-crisis performance of the economy the country is still far: total score drop in GDP in 2009 by 2008 - minus 14.5%.

“Obviously, everybody remembers very pessimistic forecasts, and sounded on the exchange rate (called and 12 hryvnia to the dollar, and 15, and even higher), and on inflation. National Bank has been able both to stabilize the foreign exchange market and to achieve a steady reduction in inflation to 12.3%. While there is the so-called delayed inflation, which is the result of administrative against increase in regulated prices and tariffs, although such a change would make it more stable financial situation first and foremost “Naftogaz” - says the executive director of macroeconomic policy NBU . - In my view, there are conditions to this predictability, and are expected to keep inflation within the year and the future. ”

In his view, for its part, National Bank for making enough effort. “Monetary policy, while not hindering economic recovery in the second half of the year, was forced to more rigid due to considerable political and economic uncertainty, especially regarding the budget deficit and its sources of coverage as in 2009 and in 2010 - explains Igor Shumilo . - If you remember we said that our goal - to keep inflation between 13 and 14% by the end of next year, have no more than 10% and further to reach the level of 5-7% price growth per year. ”

is convinced that the representative of the National Bank, which is obviously shared by the majority of board members institutions, only a stable low inflation is the key to the emergence of long-term financial resources from banks, and even then with a certain lag. In other conditions - high inflation and high devaluation expectations - it is virtually impossible.

As regards the exchange rate, the Ukrainians, obviously, still have to continue to withd1000raw from its fixed values. “As you know, the NBU away from fixed exchange rate policy. We try to make the fluctuations were small. Exchange rate - is the one tool that should, on the one hand, stimulate exports, while not hindering the desired country of import, but on the other - to provide stability to possible external shocks “, - argues the executive director of the National Bank of modified vector in the policy institutions are still not very popular among the population and in the business environment.

However, he predicts that the major shocks of course already possible to not be afraid. “From my point of view, the economic justification for significant exchange rate fluctuations there. In 2009, the current account deficit amounted to 1.9 billion dollars, financial - 11,8 billion We believe that next year the situation is little better. On the current account - plus from 0 to $ 1 billion, the Financial - about 3-4 billion shortfall.

That is, the NBU, taking into account foreign exchange reserves have all possibilities to ensure stability in the foreign exchange market, “- reassures Mr. Shumilo. but warns that today macroeconomic stability depends largely on the budget deficit and the sources of its coverage of the 2010-th and the following year . is therefore important to take an early decision on these indicators and to adopt them in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The appearance of such a budget to the real sources of its content would ensure that expected and predictable, which so long awaited and business, and investors.

“I believe that those proposals that were at one time announced Acting Minister of Finance Igor Umansky the need for adjustments made by the Verkhovna Rada Budget toward decreasing revenues by 30 billion UAH. and spending - 40 billion are correct. The adoption of a realistic, credible budget will help stabilize the currency market and will help reduce inflation “, - stressed the representative of the National Bank.

According to roundtable participants, to some extent is not critical and the debt position of Ukraine. Authorities and commercial organizations in 2010, formally to return from nearly 30 to 37 billion dollars, but according to preliminary projections, including representatives of the Ministry of Finance and commercial banks, about 70% of the debt position will be restructured. “I think for this there are some rational expectations, since, given the global world, politics pouring cash crisis in the developed world, emitting convertible currencies, has brought results. Savings in these countries have grown and now have gone the flow of currency in other countries. We can therefore expect that the campaign for the assets will take place “- said Valery Geyets. He noted that free money will be spent on buying cheapened assets of commercial banks and cheapened assets in the economy, although this may lead to the formation of a financial pyramid real estate market.

According to the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NASU, at the exit from the crisis, about 70% of the portfolio will be owned by banks with foreign capital. And about 50% of our banking system will be controlled by foreign banks. “In such circumstances, the national regulators face a major challenge: how to influence the situation in the economy? How and on what scenario will be investing Ukrainian economy?” - Outlines the problem, Mr. Geyets. For nine years, economic growth modernization processes in the economy did not occur. How long we would be proud that the country came to foreign investment, they also come into the real economy. And domestic investors also do not engage in modernization. Neither the industry nor large-tonnage chemistry almost nothing qualitatively upgraded, and new production in these areas is not formed. Therefore, i1000f we follow the policy of the existing stable exchange rate, cumulative inflation dynamics will shape the conditions for the next double deficits.

In general indications of a possible recurrence of the crisis have already appeared. If the past year the economy was moving towards a surplus current account balance, now we are moving quite rapidly in the opposite direction. “If this could be explained only by some kind of record payments for gas, as last year - it would be so terrible. But he said the National Bank in the analytical evaluation of the balance of payments, at least 10%, even with the seasonal component increased imports of non-energy goods “, - said Roman Zhukovsky. So far the dynamics of the course will help support growth in imports, which became one of the main causes of shock and a sharp devaluation in late 2008. Moreover, in recent years been a gradual revaluation of the official rate. “I think that this can only reinforce the negative trend and to increase the flow of imported goods into the country” - warned the representative of the Presidential Secretariat.

At the same time, the dollarization of the economy is growing again. When the crisis began, the share of foreign currency deposits, for example, was 50%, but now the figure is closer to 65% already. This means that in the banking system, there were preconditions for shocks - in fact use the currency for lending to financial institutions now can not, and interest on such deposits are required to pay. “I”m not saying that this is necessarily a second wave of crisis or even to something, but over that the National Bank should consider. And if you do not, then consider that the question of stabilizing the exchange rate and the economy as a whole, moved away in the very distant perspective “, - emphasizes the Roman Zhukovsky.

Problems of filling the budget

Much now depends on the size of the budget deficit and the sources of its coverage for 2010. And all this time weighs heavily on all expectations. As noted by Valery Geyets expected in this year”s budget deficit - from the officially declared by 4% of GDP to 10.8%, according to various estimates - suggests that this is a very serious problem. Why in the 2009 budget year such a huge deficit, and why were formed such distortions? Because there was no coordinated work of all branches of government.

According to Vladimir Parnyuka, immediately, without waiting, who would become president, you need to prepare packages of reforms - decisions that would conceptually change the economic situation. And, above all, it concerns the tax field. “Valery said that the 2010 budget may be budgeted for 2005, that is, the budget is again eating, in which economic income base is weaker than is necessary for planned expenditures. I want to say more: it started when we introduced the country”s current model of taxation, - the director of the Department of Macroeconomic Forecasting, Ministry of Finance. - It is built on value-added tax, that is, the more value-added created the payer, the more he must pay into the budget. It is fundamentally wrong point of view, because it makes hiding value-added. Namely it we consume.

therefore need to raise the question of the efficiency of resource use - to tax the resources and the conceptual change approach to the taxation of profits. “By the way, next year we will not profit, because the losses incurred in 2009 will be mainly transferred 2010 - in fact we do not have a chance to develop, “- he added.

representative of the Finance Ministry said that to solve the problem of inadequate funding of the budget can only be substantially changing the fiscal system. First, it is a tax1000on spending. Secondly, higher rates of value added tax to 25%. Thirdly, the abolition of charges on the payroll as a base for generating income of pension and social funds. “If we do not, we will continue to develop material-intensive production that does not meet the latest international trends”, - said V. Parnyuk.

increase the VAT rate to 25%, as suggested by the representative of the Ministry of Finance, to compensate for the abolition of charges on labor of the population as the final consumer goods. Since the VAT payers must pay to the state tax liabilities for 30 days after their occurrence, the VAT increase will be for companies with something like a short-term credit facilities from the government on the domestic market.

about taxes on expenditure. “If we look at the structure of our economy, we see that 56% - this is intermediate consumption, the turnover, and the rest - it added value. If I have one hryvnia costs, sitting there 56% of what was burned, used, but no effect on the economy has not produced. It is necessary to change this structure. In developed economies, a completely different structure, intermediate consumption is lower, and it”s - our economy is a shadow. Therefore, we should make sure that no matter where they are going resources - whether for wages, whether the material production, whether for the purchase of raw materials, energy, - the taxpayer would pay in the budget “, - says Parnyuk. It also advises the Ministry of Finance and approach to the taxation of the expenses of which are in the shadow economy is much higher than the official income.

According to Roman Zhukovsky, such radical tax reform is unlikely to be implemented in the near future, so we need to look more moderate path, or at least implement the agreements already reached with the IMF, without whose support this year”s budget balance is almost impossible. “Today, virtually no VAT refunded, the debt already amounts to nearly 25 billion UAH. And once again surged tax overpayments: today they have reached nearly 13 billion UAH. Also on the financing of state budget expenditures involved resources of local budgets - about 8 billion UAH. That is formed by a huge array of debt that would threaten the fiscal stability even in the case if this year”s income was all right, “- emphasizes the Zhukovsky.

rectify the situation can only be an external stimulus - whether it be in receipt of money from outside, or in some external mechanism, which will be encouraged to undertake certain reforms and changes in economic policy. “Cooperation with the IMF, in my opinion, is such an external stimulus,” - said the representative of the president”s entourage.

but the cooperation with the IMF halted due to the fact, that Ukraine had assumed commitments are not fulfilled, or turned in another direction, thus creating a reputation as a partner, which can not normally agree. Most of the key reforms, which, if implemented, could improve the situation have not been conducted. And the reforms demanded by the IMF, based on an assessment of the situation with our own eyes. “These events were produced largely in their heads, but in ours. And if the co-operation will be resumed at the same conditions of our proposed reforms, I certainly think it is beneficial cooperation”, - says Roman Zhukovsky.

However, in the Verkhovna Rada virtually no legislation that would provide for reform of the social sphere as well as budget revenues. This means that 2010 will be formed on the old tax base, and all the old social services. And if we even begin to carry out reforms without a draft, without existing concepts, then at best it will only come in 2011.

problem banki1000ng stability

Based on the fact that key reforms in the financial sector is not prepared even to the authorities and there is little hope for a speedy resumption of cooperation with the IMF experts believe that today there is no reason for optimism about the financial sector in 2010. “Everything that happened in the banking system had hitherto not been completed. And the banking sector, and the National Bank in 2010, and I believe that in 2011, have a lot to endure. And we only have a desire to national regulators together with the banks - to survive this time, “- said Valery Geyets.

First of all, the financiers are concerned a significant increase in the proportion of problem loans in banks” portfolios. Estimates of bad loans in the banking system differ from the official 9%. “In that case, funds to support the need greater than it can be assumed, based on the balance of the budget and balance of the money and GDP. The question arises, how will behave in the external sector. Must look for opportunities for cooperation,” - noted scholar.

According to Vladimir Khlyvnyuk, for the banking system, a second wave of the crisis, the reason is - the problem assets. Six months ago, when the crisis of liquidity, they put on the backburner. Now, due to the fact that our legislation, as in Soviet times, is aimed at protecting the rights of borrowers, all Ukrainian banks have big problems with the return of loans. And in all segments - and with legal entities and individuals, and private entrepreneurs.

“Problem loans are divided into two components: a relatively large proportion of those who simply” throwing “, and, of course, that part of the business that got into a difficult financial situation”, - said Vladimir Hlyvniuk. Поэтому, несмотря на то, что у банковской системы сейчас достаточно свободных ресурсов, она объективно не хочет вкладывать деньги в экономику, не понимая, можно ли будет их оттуда вернуть.

Растет количество заемщиков, которые абсолютно сознательно идут на то, чтобы не возвращать долги, а власть ничего не делает, чтобы их к этому вынудить. “Даже если мы своими силами вернули кредитов, грубо говоря, на миллиард, то это миллионов 200 прямых убытков - только на процессе возврата денег. С учетом себестоимости ресурсов банка и того, что нужно возвращать проценты, - отмечает Владимир Хлывнюк. - Поэтому банкам крайне необходима помощь государства в вопросе возврата кредитов”.

Банкир говорит, что является участником очень многих походов банкиров в Министерство юстиции и другие инстанции. “Мы просим одно - хоть какую-то нормативную, законодательную базу, которая бы защитила нас как учреждения, которые давали взаймы. Но, к сожалению, законы никак не менялись. Даже в инструктивных, нормативных документах, касающихся действий исполнительной службы, нотариата, судей, какого-то отклика не нашлось, и, я так понимаю, что в ближайшее время и не найдется. Поэтому живем по принципу: каждый защищает себя сам. Может, через полгода мы к этому вернемся. Все предложения в Минюсте, в Национальном банке есть”, - говорит банкир.

Ð’ свою очередь, Сергей Яременко считает, что сложившаяся в банковской системе ситуация - объективна. За последние 40 лет все доходы финансового сектора в экономике мира выросли где-то в четыре раза и достигли 50% получаемых доходов во всей экономике. То есть получилось, что львиная доля доходов сконцентрировалась в финансовой сфере. Сейчас финансовые учреждения, несмотря на убытки и кризис в целом в экономике мира, все равно хотят получать доходы, которые получали в докризисное время. Появилось даже выражение: “Доходы - это достояние финансового сектора, а в случае убытков проблема должна решаться за счет дене1000г налогоплательщика”.

“Я утверждаю, что если, допустим, ВВП страны сократился на 30%, неизбежно, что и банковский сектор должен обрушиться на 30%. Другой вопрос - кто должен уйти? Предполагалось, что уйдут самые неустойчивые учреждения, но получилось так, что бессистемность помощи банкам вылилась в то, что помогали плохим и не помогали хорошим. И таким образом получился студень в виде тех банков, которые и не падают, но уже и не стоят. Они превратились в такие неустойчивые, уже не кредитные учреждения”, - сокрушается Сергей Яременко. Если основная функция банков - кредитование, то, по сути, они в этом году ее лишились: официальные данные свидетельствуют о том, что в целом по системе объемы кредитования уменьшились на 2,1%.

Из этого следует несколько выводов. Неправильная попытка стабилизации банков и абсолютно непрозрачная юридическая система, мешающая возврату кредитов, вылились в то, что деньги застряли именно в банковской системе, совершенно не доходя до реального сектора. Как и предсказывалось, экономика отомстила за это. Месть экономики привела к тому, что ухудшились активы. Ухудшились активы - увеличились резервы. Увеличились резервы - уменьшилась капитализация. Уменьшилась капитализация - снизилась возможность кредитования.

“Однако банковская система не соглашается с фиксацией убытков. И она, и ее материнские структуры, а это в основном иностранные компании, требуют: дайте нам доходы хотя бы на уровне тех, что в прошлые годы. Для этого “заряжается” около 20-30% по гривне в кредитовании. Всем известно, что при подобных ставках заемщик уже не может взять этот кредит и не берет, не имея возможности нормально функционировать и выпускать продукцию, - говорит Сергей Яременко. - Ð’ такой ситуации, объективно, любые кредитные вложения неизбежно влекут деньги на валютный рынок для импортирования товаров народного и промышленного потребления”.

Однако предложение валюты на рынке постоянно снижается, и будет снижаться в дальнейшем. Сейчас мировые инвесторы смотрят не в нашу сторону. Во всем мире инвестиционные институты пострадали. “Дефицитные бюджеты тех же Штатов, Испании, Греции и других стран требуют огромных денег - деньги будут уходить туда. И ни о каких инвестициях вы не мечтайте и не ждите. Значит, источник для удовлетворения собственных потребностей только внутри, и лежит он в продуктивной эмиссии гривни для развития кредитования”, - уверен Сергей Яременко.

По его мнению, в такой ситуации главной для правительства и Нацбанка становится следующая задача - вливание денег направить в реальный сектор экономики, чтобы гривня, попав туда, не выходила на валютный рынок. Хотя и при нынешних достаточно либеральных условиях валютного регулирования это тоже, как минимум отчасти, неизбежно. Поэтому неизбежно, по мнению Сергея Яременко, и повышение курса доллара.

Выводы

Во всех отношениях 2010 год будет тяжелым, периодически будет возникать напряжение вследствие не только нынешних, но и предстоящих выборов. Но перед правительством и Национальным банком стоит очень сложная общая задача - выработать принципиально новые решения с тем, чтобы создать дополнительные импульсы экономике, без которых экономика будут расти в лучшем случае лишь на 2-3% в год.

“Гарантирую, что при таком росте будут накапливаться проблемы в социальной сфере, сфере потребления. Речь идет о необходимости роста на уровне 5-6% как минимум - только в этом случае закладываются перспективы, что за определенный период накопленные проблемы можно разрешить, - говорит Валерий Геец. - Таким образом за текущий год необходимо одновременно заложить основы модернизации всех составляющих экономики. Наивно думать, что без формирования институтов развития, кe72оторых сегодня в Украине нет, без четкого видения того, для чего и каким именно образом эти институты использовать, мы эти проблемы решим. И для такого формирования у нас есть максимум год, иначе мы будем обречены пасти задних не только в Европе, но и среди развивающихся стран”.

“Однако сегодня пока что есть очень мало оснований для здорового оптимизма. И проблема здесь не только в отсутствии надлежащей координации между отдельными ветвями власти, но и в том, что на самом деле пока нечего координировать.

Ð’ нашей стране, к сожалению, до сих пор отсутствует системное видение того, какие реформы нам необходимо внедрять, какую макроэкономическую, кредитно-денежную и фискальную политику реализовывать. Нечего координировать без решения идейно-политических и политико-правовых проблем в современной Украине - и в этом состоит главный вызов на послевыборные месяцы”, - подытожил ученый.

Александр Дубинский, Юрий Сколотяный

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