The growth of prices for black gold will support securities neftyanki, the main intrigue of the day is linked with Gazprom and Rosneft

Gazprom refuses Kovykta in favor of Rosneft ?

Today external background in general positive. Better the market shares will be the financial sector. VTB in the paper is likely to capture speculative profits. Rising oil prices will support the oil securities. The main intrigue of the day is linked with Gazprom and Rosneft.

According to the media Gazprom has decided to abandon Kovykta. License to Kovyktinskoe gas condensate field (C1 C2 reserves - about 2 trillion cubic meters) owned by RUSIA Petroleum, 62.8% owned by TNK-BP, 10,78% - the Administration of Irkutsk region, 25% minus one share - WGC-3. In June 2007, Gazprom, TNK-BP and BP signed an agreement to sell 62.8% stake in the monopoly RUSIA Petroleum and 50% of the shares of East-Siberian Gas Company (operator of gasification of the region, the other half belongs to the Irkutsk region) for 700-900 million U.S.

The new owner of the deposit can be Rosneftegaz, the board of directors which is chaired by Vice Prime Minister Igor Sechin. The Government is now working on the details of a possible transaction, but the TNK-BP to pay $ 1 billion, which it planned to receive from Gazprom, Rosneftegaz not intend. Perhaps tankmen get much less compensation. In doing so, if tankmen do not go to the deal, it could lose its license for Kovykta.

So far Rosneftegaz (100% of the capital belongs to the state) not involved in any transaction projects. The company owns a 75.16% stake in Rosneft, and 10.74% stake in Gazprom. Kovykta - is very capital-intensive projects and focuses on exports to China, and export monopoly is enshrined in Russia for Gazprom. However, Igor Sechin has successful experience of China's negotiations, and Gazprom itself abandoned the project. A couple of years ago, foreign media have been publishing on the consolidation on the basis of Rosneftegaza controlling interest of Surgut. Probable exchange was 25%, Rosneft to control the voting shares of Vladimir Bogdanov. Following this transaction go to the single share in the holding would be only a matter of time.

Now, money-box Rosneftegaza may have a new super asset, which could eventually reach Rosneft, which could become an exporter not only oil but also gas in China. In the political possibilities of a healthy weight and lobbying Rosneft doubt difficult. Rosneft is the current leader in oil production in Russia, however, significantly inferior to Gazprom in volume sales. This year, Gazprom's earnings forecast of 83 billion dollars, 45 billion, Rosneft, Surgut - Competent to $ 25 billion merger of assets would allow Russia to create a new super-company, which is comparable with Gazprom, and focused on Europe as well in Asia. Start Vankora and delivery of ESPO is not far off. In their review, we have repeatedly noted that the company, look at the fast-growing Chinese economy will have very significant gains in profits and market capitalization in the long term. The main chip of this list is Rosneft. While the news on Kovykta neutral for the shares of Gazprom and Rosneft. However, we consider Rosneft as the main long-term ideas for the Russian stock market.

NOVATEK issued strong financial results under international accounting standards for the second quarter. However, we still preferred shares to Gazprom. Award in the evaluation of NOVATEK to Gazprom for the multiplier EV /EBITDA 09 is almost 200%. Net profit Bashneft ANC in the first half of 2009 for RSA was 3 114 824 thousand rubles, which is 67% lower than during the same period of 2008. News moderately negative for the company's shares. We continue to see the paper Bashneft as a tool for the entrance to the big company that will create Sistema based Bashkir assets.

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