Equity markets and raw materials
In the medium to long term, we expect continued growth in prices of commodities and stock quotes. The explanation is simple: a soft monetary policy the Fed will take a very long time. And in terms of lower rates, investors will shift funds from fixed income instruments in the assets that can protect against inflation (raw stock), because the opportunity cost of such protection will be very low. The Fed will not tighten monetary policy until long as household income (at least in nominal terms) does not increase so much that they were able to cover the new interest rates on loans. This means that even when the start of growth or inflation, FOMC will have to wait to increase rates until such time as these processes do not lead to a sufficient increase in income borrowers. However, until now, this rosy picture is still very far: reporting banks (in particular, Bank of America) shows that borrowers are experiencing significant difficulties with payments even at current rates. This is due to the fact that the easing in monetary policy, continuing the fall of 2007, has not achieved its objectives in full: Fed's target rate for this period decreased by 5.25% per annum (from 5.25% to 0%), and the average rate 30-year mortgage at only 1.5% per annum (from 6.5% to 5%). So now we need not to tighten policy, but rather, to take additional measures quantitative easing.
This year, the dynamics of the RTS index and the oil is very similar to what happened in 1999 (with a shift of approximately one month and less volatility). Therefore, it is likely that the price of black gold will reach $ 93 per barrel before the end of the year. At the same time, the fundamental reasons (given the difference in income of companies and the ratio of the discount rate), if the price of oil equal to $ 93 per barrel, the value of the RTS index should be 10-11 times higher than in December 1999. Thus, achieving the level of 1750 points on the RTS index is also very likely.
most interesting papers, in our opinion, are the shares of Gazprom and MMC-Nornickel. Both fell far short of the RTS index for no apparent reason. We expect that before the end of January, Gazprom's shares will rise to the level of 288 rubles. And MMC-Nornickel to the level of 5300 rubles.
At the same time, speculation in shares of Rostelecom, which was conducted in the past three days, today is likely to end: we do not expect something revolutionary by today's Board of Directors, and from a fundamental point of view, the company significantly overstated.
On Russia's monetary policy
Yesterday the Bank of Russia proposed to amend the tax code changes that would be discouraged to attract foreign loans to the private sector, since this leads to an increase in inflation and the inflation of the price bubble in the domestic markets. I must say that the desirability of tax regulation of cross-border capital flows, we wrote in our review of The ruble: What happened and what will be onMarch 13. However, we suggested that the complex system of other measures relating to the ruble rate fixing and laid emphasis on the taxation of capital export. As is known, the inflow of hot money in the country is usually caused by one of two reasons: low cost of the assets or the difference in interest rates (which creates opportunities for the carry trade). The first approach can eliminate the ruble exchange rate to purchasing power parity, the second - a significant reduction in rates. And then discourage you can only export of capital. Nevertheless, it is gratifying that monetary policy is moving in the right direction: the first step was the recognition at the highest level of the fact that the strengthening of the ruble is and pros, too. Perhaps in the future and be able to build a system with low inflation, low rates and less dependent on hot money flow.
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Gazprom and Srbijagas create a joint venture in Southern Stream and UGS Banat Yard
After Friday's modest recovery, at the moment the dollar is once again demonstrating the rapid weakening of
European stock markets were closed on Monday at the highest point in the past 12 months
Fuel and Energy Ministry has developed the concept of modernization of gas transportation system on the 2.6 billion dollars
Debt Teplovik before The gas Ukraine exceeds 2,5 billion UAH
Russia ready to reduce the gas price for Armenia
In the oil and gas sector, there is no single speaker: Gazprom increases, Rosneft and Lukoil are falling
Russia market is in a state of uncertainty about the direction of further movement
Bulls, supported by external background, were able to establish a new high on the MICEX index, after which the market has faced a wave of sales
The most interesting papers are shares of Gazprom and Norilsk Nickel, which fell far short of the RTS index
Equity markets and raw materials
In the medium to long term, we expect continued growth in prices of commodities and stock quotes. The explanation is simple: a soft monetary policy the Fed will take a very long time. And in terms of lower rates, investors will shift funds from fixed income instruments in the assets that can protect against inflation (raw stock), because the opportunity cost of such protection will be very low. The Fed will not tighten monetary policy until long as household income (at least in nominal terms) does not increase so much that they were able to cover the new interest rates on loans. This means that even when the start of growth or inflation, FOMC will have to wait to increase rates until such time as these processes do not lead to a sufficient increase in income borrowers. However, until now, this rosy picture is still very far: reporting banks (in particular, Bank of America) shows that borrowers are experiencing significant difficulties with payments even at current rates. This is due to the fact that the easing in monetary policy, continuing the fall of 2007, has not achieved its objectives in full: Fed's target rate for this period decreased by 5.25% per annum (from 5.25% to 0%), and the average rate 30-year mortgage at only 1.5% per annum (from 6.5% to 5%). So now we need not to tighten policy, but rather, to take additional measures quantitative easing.
This year, the dynamics of the RTS index and the oil is very similar to what happened in 1999 (with a shift of approximately one month and less volatility). Therefore, it is likely that the price of black gold will reach $ 93 per barrel before the end of the year. At the same time, the fundamental reasons (given the difference in income of companies and the ratio of the discount rate), if the price of oil equal to $ 93 per barrel, the value of the RTS index should be 10-11 times higher than in December 1999. Thus, achieving the level of 1750 points on the RTS index is also very likely.
most interesting papers, in our opinion, are the shares of Gazprom and MMC-Nornickel. Both fell far short of the RTS index for no apparent reason. We expect that before the end of January, Gazprom's shares will rise to the level of 288 rubles. And MMC-Nornickel to the level of 5300 rubles.
At the same time, speculation in shares of Rostelecom, which was conducted in the past three days, today is likely to end: we do not expect something revolutionary by today's Board of Directors, and from a fundamental point of view, the company significantly overstated.
On Russia's monetary policy
Yesterday the Bank of Russia proposed to amend the tax code changes that would be discouraged to attract foreign loans to the private sector, since this leads to an increase in inflation and the inflation of the price bubble in the domestic markets. I must say that the desirability of tax regulation of cross-border capital flows, we wrote in our review of The ruble: What happened and what will be onMarch 13. However, we suggested that the complex system of other measures relating to the ruble rate fixing and laid emphasis on the taxation of capital export. As is known, the inflow of hot money in the country is usually caused by one of two reasons: low cost of the assets or the difference in interest rates (which creates opportunities for the carry trade). The first approach can eliminate the ruble exchange rate to purchasing power parity, the second - a significant reduction in rates. And then discourage you can only export of capital. Nevertheless, it is gratifying that monetary policy is moving in the right direction: the first step was the recognition at the highest level of the fact that the strengthening of the ruble is and pros, too. Perhaps in the future and be able to build a system with low inflation, low rates and less dependent on hot money flow.
2; user rated material on 3,5.
Analyst Ratings
Gazprom and Srbijagas create a joint venture in Southern Stream and UGS Banat Yard
After Friday's modest recovery, at the moment the dollar is once again demonstrating the rapid weakening of
European stock markets were closed on Monday at the highest point in the past 12 months
Fuel and Energy Ministry has developed the concept of modernization of gas transportation system on the 2.6 billion dollars
Debt Teplovik before The gas Ukraine exceeds 2,5 billion UAH
Russia ready to reduce the gas price for Armenia
In the oil and gas sector, there is no single speaker: Gazprom increases, Rosneft and Lukoil are falling
Russia market is in a state of uncertainty about the direction of further movement
Bulls, supported by external background, were able to establish a new high on the MICEX index, after which the market has faced a wave of sales