This week was more than just a market correction: change the view on the prospects for investments in Russian economy. The reason, as is often the case, was oil. Its price has lost about 18% of the peak value of 73.30 this year, came close to the mark at $ 60 a barrel. Ruble began lowering not only to the U.S. from 31 to 32.20 rubles on the background of the strengthening in the Forex, but also to bivalyutnoy basket.
The Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, a few months ago, said that since March the observed rise in oil prices by not more than a correction of the fall. The real demand for all this time has decreased. Typically, the correction should fall further down the movement, perhaps even updating minima. Technical analysis also shows that the probability of further decline in prices in coming months. As the movement of oil over the past two weeks have been very high, investors are once again remembered about Russia's economic dependence on energy prices. Away from divergent fluctuations dollar to the euro, the ruble began to sell bivalyutnoy basket. Last week it cost to Russia's currency rose from 36.76 to 37.70.
In our opinion, this is only the beginning of a long wave decline, which could take the entire third quarter. By the end of oil may once again fall to 40 dollars per barrel, a drop in euro /dollar to 1.27, a pair of Usd /Rub move to 34,0. At the beginning of next week we can not exclude a correction in commodity areas, that fall the dollar /ruble to 31,90-32. But by its end we may see a rate close to 32.50. For euro /dollar test from above 1.38 could be repeated. If, however, will be holes in the 1.3750 mark, then perhaps impulsive further strengthening the U.S. currency with a view to 1,35.
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Kyrgyzstan will pass a number of Russian defense enterprises, in exchange for a loan
The authorities of Ukraine and the IMF mission have reached agreement on the allocation of the next tranche of funds under the program stand by
Vladimir Milovidov: The Russian financial market stood in the standby mode
The Russian market may fluctuate until the end of August in the vicinity of 1000 points, and then move towards the values of last year
Shares of Norilsk Nickel continues downward movement within the channel
Quotations bonds rise, despite the flagging ruble
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
Group OMZ supply China internals for the EPR-type nuclear reactor
In the case of a puncture at the level of $ 60 per barrel - the movement to support the 55 U.S. bound
The price of oil may once again fall to $ 40 a barrel, a pair of dollar / ruble closer to the mark 34
This week was more than just a market correction: change the view on the prospects for investments in Russian economy. The reason, as is often the case, was oil. Its price has lost about 18% of the peak value of 73.30 this year, came close to the mark at $ 60 a barrel. Ruble began lowering not only to the U.S. from 31 to 32.20 rubles on the background of the strengthening in the Forex, but also to bivalyutnoy basket.
The Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, a few months ago, said that since March the observed rise in oil prices by not more than a correction of the fall. The real demand for all this time has decreased. Typically, the correction should fall further down the movement, perhaps even updating minima. Technical analysis also shows that the probability of further decline in prices in coming months. As the movement of oil over the past two weeks have been very high, investors are once again remembered about Russia's economic dependence on energy prices. Away from divergent fluctuations dollar to the euro, the ruble began to sell bivalyutnoy basket. Last week it cost to Russia's currency rose from 36.76 to 37.70.
In our opinion, this is only the beginning of a long wave decline, which could take the entire third quarter. By the end of oil may once again fall to 40 dollars per barrel, a drop in euro /dollar to 1.27, a pair of Usd /Rub move to 34,0. At the beginning of next week we can not exclude a correction in commodity areas, that fall the dollar /ruble to 31,90-32. But by its end we may see a rate close to 32.50. For euro /dollar test from above 1.38 could be repeated. If, however, will be holes in the 1.3750 mark, then perhaps impulsive further strengthening the U.S. currency with a view to 1,35.
3 users rated material at 2,3.
Analyst Ratings
Kyrgyzstan will pass a number of Russian defense enterprises, in exchange for a loan
The authorities of Ukraine and the IMF mission have reached agreement on the allocation of the next tranche of funds under the program stand by
Vladimir Milovidov: The Russian financial market stood in the standby mode
The Russian market may fluctuate until the end of August in the vicinity of 1000 points, and then move towards the values of last year
Shares of Norilsk Nickel continues downward movement within the channel
Quotations bonds rise, despite the flagging ruble
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
Group OMZ supply China internals for the EPR-type nuclear reactor
In the case of a puncture at the level of $ 60 per barrel - the movement to support the 55 U.S. bound