U.S. budget deficit reached 10% of GDP, while the consumer has received from the State for the past 12 months, the additional 1.2 trillion. dollars that kept consumer spending by a sharp fall, although they still fell a record pace for the postwar period, a reduction in costs per capita over the last year was 2.7%, writes FinTimes.ru.
Without gospomoschi potential drop in demand in the United States could draw up a 13% -15% year on year, while the fall in GDP could exceed 15%. The active participation of the state has helped the economy to avoid the disastrous scenarios. But in this situation, there is a rather complicated time of the United States will reduce the budget deficit and what consequences this may cause. A cut would have, because otherwise the U.S. economy will face very serious challenges in attracting capital, in fact, will not be able to fulfill its obligation to its growing debt.
To ensure that personal incomes rose to the level of incentives grantedby the State, must be three years of stable and sustainable growth of the American economy and the growth of consumption, this is not even dream of, especially in the context of record unemployment. But three years from the United States is not, because to maintain the deficit at the current level of three years, they simply will not be able to, it can destroy the system gosfinansov such emissions, it simply can not survive. To support the system in this situation could be intense credit, but the credit sector is in a very delicate situation. In fact, the Fed lending is supported by active injection of liquidity into the financial system.
When the authorities put contradictory goals: on the one hand they want the banks increased lending, on the other hand want to risk assessment was adequate and the banks have not swindled a new bladder, but it is not possible. The previous rate of increase of credit only if ignoring (hiding) the credit risks. Either the banks will again give out loans to all who want, or the volume of lending will remain quite low.
Such instruments as securitization, the use of CDS do not reduce credit risks - they simply redistribute them within the financial system, creating the appearance of reducing credit risk. In addition to the desire of banks to lend to insufficient quality of the borrower in a sharp increase in unemployment has fallen sharply. There is another factor, besides the fact that the banks should want to give credit, the consumer should want them to take an active and consume. There is also great challenges: to the polls 2 /3 of Americans do not plan to take new loans, while in the process of reducing consumption (even in the face of strong support from the State).
 ÂÂ
that rely on American power in the situation told the Minister of Finance Timothy Geytner United States, focuses on the fact that the economy will gradually slow to recover, and indeed stagnant (because of the growth indicators will be the budgetary costs). As the stabilization of the situation and increase the propensity to invest the Government plans to reduce fiscal and other incentives and reduce the budget deficit. This will provoke a slow economic recovery for several years with periods of recession and growth is in fact a period of prolonged stagnation. Such a development would be quite logical, if it were an ordinary recession, which visited in recent years. However, the realization of such scenarios there are many pitfalls.
 ÂÂ
first - this is the credit sector. Such a restoration requires the preservation of low interest rates and lending terms loyal. Since The current credit mass formed in conditions of active credit and ignore the credit risk - is to maintain this level can only be provided to ignore the risk or taking risks on the authorities. At this point it is well implemented, the risks borne by the Fed, a program of redemption toxic assets. But what then do with these assets is not clear, because risks have not happened, they simply shifted from the private sector in the state, undermining the foundation - gosfinansov system.
 ÂÂ
planned to clear the balance sheets of banks, but previous levels of lending are possible only if the banks will start to recruit again in the balance of those same toxic assets. The demand for credit exists mainly on the part of borrowers nizkonadezhnyh, without whose involvement in the lending process to talk about the restoration of the demand does not have a very long time. The other side of the coin are the bid to encourage consumption requires that long-term rates a long time remained at low levels that, in the face of large budget deficits virtually unattainable.
Raising rates could trigger a new collapse of the credit system, as it happens as soon as the risks of inflation and the first signs of consumer activity. In fact, U.S. authorities can not afford a situation of strong activation, as will have to drastically tightenmonetary policy so as to bring down the whole pyramid of debt, this has already happened since the last cycle of Fed rate increases. So to speak of early recovery do not have to for a long time.
 ÂÂ
Second - it is the Government's ability to attract funds to finance the deficits. The risks of inflation will help to reduce confidence in the dollar to maintain low rates can not be. And with the restoration of these risks in any case appear, and quickly enough, because commodity markets have long been the investment, ie react to the situation quickly, before the economy changes. Ie Inflation will come sooner than we see real improvement in economic processes, and this makes the authority to act strictly, otherwise the inflation process can get out of control. And in the context of the current state of the system gosfinansov, which claimed a large portion of credit risk and provides an important role in shaping the income these developments amount to suicide.
 ÂÂ
system gosfinansov United States holds only on the credibility, if the crisis of 2007-2008 years was accompanied by a loss of confidence in the private sector, the loss of it in the public sector will actually collapse the entire system. An additional negative factor will act out the process of generation of baby Boomer to retire. This process began in 2008 and the peak will occur in the years 2012-2014. It is no secret that it is the pension funds are major buyers of U.S. government debt in the process of growth of pension payments to the resources of pension funds will be depleted, thus limiting their ability to buy government debt. Replaces this emission can demand, but not long, because will strengthen inflationary processes.
 ÂÂ
Third - and this is the consumer's willingness to consume. While the U.S. population continues to rapidly reduce consumption, even in the face of the fact that the state forms a significant portion of consumer income, trying to stem the decline in consumption. The bottom line is that the consumer can get used to save and conserve, the more that this contributes to a significant depreciation of investments for the future (they are formed partly by the real estate market, partly due to growth of other financial assets). The fall in prices on stock markets, losses in credit markets and falling prices for homes depreciated assets of Americans, forcing the loss of fill, is actively increasing its accumulation.
 ÂÂ
When people finally turn on active consumption and abandon loans, which were the main engine of U.S. economy for many years, no infusion of state will not be able to restore the situation. Change it then can only increase inflation and negative real interest rates. If people faced with the fact that their accumulation depreciate, it will look for opportunities to preserve savings. Ie authorities will need to form inflation expectations, but it is facing very serious consequences for the system gosfinansov that will make the raise rates, consumers and the economy plunging into a new wave of crisis.
 ÂÂ
In fact, the U.S. has no options to move to a stable growth, the main task, which they will make now - is to stabilize the situation at least at current levels, supporting the economy afloat as long as possible. If you succeed in the coming years will be full of brief periods of ups and downs, and talked about what the U.S. Treasury. But it will not restore, but would be a difficult period of change and adaptation. Will the balance between them to inflation and deflation for a long time - this will depend on the prospect of the next few years. But one thing is clear - it is not possible without the progressive latent or open reduction of consumption in the United States and will be accompanied by a decline in average living standards.
Therefore, those who hoped for a quick withdrawal, suffer disappointment - out of the current situation can not be. Consumption should be substantially reduced before we can talk about reconstruction. The danger is that Americans will not be able to balance on the edge (for this is simply the loss of confidence in the system), gradually reducing consumption. Take this path America will not take place, it is possible only in conditions of support from other participants in the global financial system.
If
keep the system afloat, and will not be able to trust will be lost, we see the collapse of the global financial system, especially system gosfinansov compared with the latest slump in financial markets seem only warm-up.
Almost all officials have to hide that
Do not share a zero
The sorrowful business
Will the ships calling at the harbor …
In BP registered a bill increasing the responsibility of the NBU, and banning the refinancing of banks with capital neukrainskim
Volkswagen to buy a Porsche for U.S.$ 11.28 billion
Belarus will be competing with non-payers for ZHKU board of shame
Ministry of Economy of Germany: The decision on the fate of Opel is necessary to solve a number of issues
The first billionaire sports world will be golfers Tiger Woods
The U.S. economy: to resist and not fall down
U.S. budget deficit reached 10% of GDP, while the consumer has received from the State for the past 12 months, the additional 1.2 trillion. dollars that kept consumer spending by a sharp fall, although they still fell a record pace for the postwar period, a reduction in costs per capita over the last year was 2.7%, writes FinTimes.ru.
Without gospomoschi potential drop in demand in the United States could draw up a 13% -15% year on year, while the fall in GDP could exceed 15%. The active participation of the state has helped the economy to avoid the disastrous scenarios. But in this situation, there is a rather complicated time of the United States will reduce the budget deficit and what consequences this may cause. A cut would have, because otherwise the U.S. economy will face very serious challenges in attracting capital, in fact, will not be able to fulfill its obligation to its growing debt.
To ensure that personal incomes rose to the level of incentives grantedby the State, must be three years of stable and sustainable growth of the American economy and the growth of consumption, this is not even dream of, especially in the context of record unemployment. But three years from the United States is not, because to maintain the deficit at the current level of three years, they simply will not be able to, it can destroy the system gosfinansov such emissions, it simply can not survive. To support the system in this situation could be intense credit, but the credit sector is in a very delicate situation. In fact, the Fed lending is supported by active injection of liquidity into the financial system.
When the authorities put contradictory goals: on the one hand they want the banks increased lending, on the other hand want to risk assessment was adequate and the banks have not swindled a new bladder, but it is not possible. The previous rate of increase of credit only if ignoring (hiding) the credit risks. Either the banks will again give out loans to all who want, or the volume of lending will remain quite low.
Such instruments as securitization, the use of CDS do not reduce credit risks - they simply redistribute them within the financial system, creating the appearance of reducing credit risk. In addition to the desire of banks to lend to insufficient quality of the borrower in a sharp increase in unemployment has fallen sharply. There is another factor, besides the fact that the banks should want to give credit, the consumer should want them to take an active and consume. There is also great challenges: to the polls 2 /3 of Americans do not plan to take new loans, while in the process of reducing consumption (even in the face of strong support from the State).
 ÂÂ
that rely on American power in the situation told the Minister of Finance Timothy Geytner United States, focuses on the fact that the economy will gradually slow to recover, and indeed stagnant (because of the growth indicators will be the budgetary costs). As the stabilization of the situation and increase the propensity to invest the Government plans to reduce fiscal and other incentives and reduce the budget deficit. This will provoke a slow economic recovery for several years with periods of recession and growth is in fact a period of prolonged stagnation. Such a development would be quite logical, if it were an ordinary recession, which visited in recent years. However, the realization of such scenarios there are many pitfalls.
 ÂÂ
first - this is the credit sector. Such a restoration requires the preservation of low interest rates and lending terms loyal. Since The current credit mass formed in conditions of active credit and ignore the credit risk - is to maintain this level can only be provided to ignore the risk or taking risks on the authorities. At this point it is well implemented, the risks borne by the Fed, a program of redemption toxic assets. But what then do with these assets is not clear, because risks have not happened, they simply shifted from the private sector in the state, undermining the foundation - gosfinansov system.
 ÂÂ
planned to clear the balance sheets of banks, but previous levels of lending are possible only if the banks will start to recruit again in the balance of those same toxic assets. The demand for credit exists mainly on the part of borrowers nizkonadezhnyh, without whose involvement in the lending process to talk about the restoration of the demand does not have a very long time. The other side of the coin are the bid to encourage consumption requires that long-term rates a long time remained at low levels that, in the face of large budget deficits virtually unattainable.
Raising rates could trigger a new collapse of the credit system, as it happens as soon as the risks of inflation and the first signs of consumer activity. In fact, U.S. authorities can not afford a situation of strong activation, as will have to drastically tightenmonetary policy so as to bring down the whole pyramid of debt, this has already happened since the last cycle of Fed rate increases. So to speak of early recovery do not have to for a long time.
 ÂÂ
Second - it is the Government's ability to attract funds to finance the deficits. The risks of inflation will help to reduce confidence in the dollar to maintain low rates can not be. And with the restoration of these risks in any case appear, and quickly enough, because commodity markets have long been the investment, ie react to the situation quickly, before the economy changes. Ie Inflation will come sooner than we see real improvement in economic processes, and this makes the authority to act strictly, otherwise the inflation process can get out of control. And in the context of the current state of the system gosfinansov, which claimed a large portion of credit risk and provides an important role in shaping the income these developments amount to suicide.
 ÂÂ
system gosfinansov United States holds only on the credibility, if the crisis of 2007-2008 years was accompanied by a loss of confidence in the private sector, the loss of it in the public sector will actually collapse the entire system. An additional negative factor will act out the process of generation of baby Boomer to retire. This process began in 2008 and the peak will occur in the years 2012-2014. It is no secret that it is the pension funds are major buyers of U.S. government debt in the process of growth of pension payments to the resources of pension funds will be depleted, thus limiting their ability to buy government debt. Replaces this emission can demand, but not long, because will strengthen inflationary processes.
 ÂÂ
Third - and this is the consumer's willingness to consume. While the U.S. population continues to rapidly reduce consumption, even in the face of the fact that the state forms a significant portion of consumer income, trying to stem the decline in consumption. The bottom line is that the consumer can get used to save and conserve, the more that this contributes to a significant depreciation of investments for the future (they are formed partly by the real estate market, partly due to growth of other financial assets). The fall in prices on stock markets, losses in credit markets and falling prices for homes depreciated assets of Americans, forcing the loss of fill, is actively increasing its accumulation.
 ÂÂ
When people finally turn on active consumption and abandon loans, which were the main engine of U.S. economy for many years, no infusion of state will not be able to restore the situation. Change it then can only increase inflation and negative real interest rates. If people faced with the fact that their accumulation depreciate, it will look for opportunities to preserve savings. Ie authorities will need to form inflation expectations, but it is facing very serious consequences for the system gosfinansov that will make the raise rates, consumers and the economy plunging into a new wave of crisis.
 ÂÂ
In fact, the U.S. has no options to move to a stable growth, the main task, which they will make now - is to stabilize the situation at least at current levels, supporting the economy afloat as long as possible. If you succeed in the coming years will be full of brief periods of ups and downs, and talked about what the U.S. Treasury. But it will not restore, but would be a difficult period of change and adaptation. Will the balance between them to inflation and deflation for a long time - this will depend on the prospect of the next few years. But one thing is clear - it is not possible without the progressive latent or open reduction of consumption in the United States and will be accompanied by a decline in average living standards.
Therefore, those who hoped for a quick withdrawal, suffer disappointment - out of the current situation can not be. Consumption should be substantially reduced before we can talk about reconstruction. The danger is that Americans will not be able to balance on the edge (for this is simply the loss of confidence in the system), gradually reducing consumption. Take this path America will not take place, it is possible only in conditions of support from other participants in the global financial system.
If
keep the system afloat, and will not be able to trust will be lost, we see the collapse of the global financial system, especially system gosfinansov compared with the latest slump in financial markets seem only warm-up.
Almost all officials have to hide that
Do not share a zero
The sorrowful business
Will the ships calling at the harbor …
In BP registered a bill increasing the responsibility of the NBU, and banning the refinancing of banks with capital neukrainskim
Volkswagen to buy a Porsche for U.S.$ 11.28 billion
Belarus will be competing with non-payers for ZHKU board of shame
Ministry of Economy of Germany: The decision on the fate of Opel is necessary to solve a number of issues
The first billionaire sports world will be golfers Tiger Woods