discharge in full
Today finally dispelled all illusions that our market is ready to blindly go up after the expensive oil. It is a strong downward movement we have seen, given that oil prices traded only 2% below annual highs. Some sales rise to new sales and help them in this way can not be permitted from June 15 shorts. It is significant that today is also aggressive in the price of losing a second-tier stocks. On Thursday afternoon indexes MICEX and RTS stopped in the half-point above 1000 points.
Given that at the moment, the MICEX and RTS indexes have gone down from its maximum marks already for more than 15%, return to previous levels in the near future, seems to us highly problematic.
Spring growth of our stock index by 70-90% since the beginning of the year to June has not been confirmed by the positive statistical data, which shows that unemployment in the country is not decreasing, promproizvodstvo continues to decline, long-term investments are bypassing the real sector economy, as banks continued to grow overdue accounts payable.
Perhaps investors continue to turn a blind eye to this apparent discrepancy in growth of quotations and actual performance of companies. To do this, needed a powerful external positive, but it dried up, even in the States. Tam, S P500 index has not managed to get above level 955 items and is now gone below the level of local support (925 points). All this points to the fact that oil prices could also easily go down as soon as possible to the point $ 65/barr. That will cause additional pressure on the rate of the ruble and our stock indices.
In this difficult situation, we advise investors to use local wave growth of quotations in order to gradually reduce its positions in securities across the spectrum of the market and continue to monitor the dynamics of oil prices. In our view, the MICEX index in the coming weeks, marks can go down to 950-960 points, which means that turbulent time, better to wait for the cache. In order to determine the relevance of non-residents to our stock market just look at the dynamics of the securities of Gazprom, who lost a day of 4-8%. Search fruitful trade ideas in the paper second line has also not, as the demand here would return only if the completion of a full correction of the blue chips.
Being an optimist, I hope, that unload at 10-15%, our stock indices can once again become interesting for speculators, as essentially a speculative use of cheap money in the markets, not yet in sight.
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Analyst Ratings
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Current levels of oil prices make it possible to count on much higher levels - 1300-1500 points on the RTS index
Important prerequisites for the purchases are not available, Bear was an opportunity to move the market in the direction they need
The closest resistance for the shares of Gazprom is the level of 165 rubles
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
Neither the fall of the dollar, nor the rise in oil prices have prevented the Russian market to show an adequate correction
Domestic market after a substantial reduction of the previous day had little chance of short-term recovery
Strong resistance to stamp Brent is the level of near $ 78 a barrel
Shares of Russian banks promise of being subjected to massive sell-and complete the day in negative
Gazprom will strengthen its position in the gas and electricity markets in North America
This afternoon, the MICEX and RTS indexes stayed in the half-point above 1000 points
discharge in full
Today finally dispelled all illusions that our market is ready to blindly go up after the expensive oil. It is a strong downward movement we have seen, given that oil prices traded only 2% below annual highs. Some sales rise to new sales and help them in this way can not be permitted from June 15 shorts. It is significant that today is also aggressive in the price of losing a second-tier stocks. On Thursday afternoon indexes MICEX and RTS stopped in the half-point above 1000 points.
Given that at the moment, the MICEX and RTS indexes have gone down from its maximum marks already for more than 15%, return to previous levels in the near future, seems to us highly problematic.
Spring growth of our stock index by 70-90% since the beginning of the year to June has not been confirmed by the positive statistical data, which shows that unemployment in the country is not decreasing, promproizvodstvo continues to decline, long-term investments are bypassing the real sector economy, as banks continued to grow overdue accounts payable.
Perhaps investors continue to turn a blind eye to this apparent discrepancy in growth of quotations and actual performance of companies. To do this, needed a powerful external positive, but it dried up, even in the States. Tam, S P500 index has not managed to get above level 955 items and is now gone below the level of local support (925 points). All this points to the fact that oil prices could also easily go down as soon as possible to the point $ 65/barr. That will cause additional pressure on the rate of the ruble and our stock indices.
In this difficult situation, we advise investors to use local wave growth of quotations in order to gradually reduce its positions in securities across the spectrum of the market and continue to monitor the dynamics of oil prices. In our view, the MICEX index in the coming weeks, marks can go down to 950-960 points, which means that turbulent time, better to wait for the cache. In order to determine the relevance of non-residents to our stock market just look at the dynamics of the securities of Gazprom, who lost a day of 4-8%. Search fruitful trade ideas in the paper second line has also not, as the demand here would return only if the completion of a full correction of the blue chips.
Being an optimist, I hope, that unload at 10-15%, our stock indices can once again become interesting for speculators, as essentially a speculative use of cheap money in the markets, not yet in sight.
3 users rated material 5.
Analyst Ratings
Current levels of oil prices make it possible to count on much higher levels - 1300-1500 points on the RTS index
Important prerequisites for the purchases are not available, Bear was an opportunity to move the market in the direction they need
The closest resistance for the shares of Gazprom is the level of 165 rubles
Recommendations on the stock market: LUKOIL, MMC Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank
Neither the fall of the dollar, nor the rise in oil prices have prevented the Russian market to show an adequate correction
Domestic market after a substantial reduction of the previous day had little chance of short-term recovery
Strong resistance to stamp Brent is the level of near $ 78 a barrel
Shares of Russian banks promise of being subjected to massive sell-and complete the day in negative
Gazprom will strengthen its position in the gas and electricity markets in North America