Today, the MICEX index would attempt to re-mark the storming of 950 items

to grow, but slowly

Russia

indicators of the state of the Russian stock market have reflected the lack of unanimity among the participants: the RTS index rose by 1.73%, not least thanks to strengthening of the ruble, the MICEX index fell by 0.26%. The volume of trades on the RTS Stock Exchange was $ 2.92 billion, of which $ 1.61 billion was accounted for by the term market instruments, the MICEX Stock Section natorgovala to 157.6 billion rubles. Looking for the securities included in the index, turnover was 57, 4 billion rubles.

Europe

Old World Index grew by an average of 0.4% chill is not the U.S., while China, which prorochat laurels engine of future economic growth and a guiding star in the reconstruction of the world economy after the crisis. In fact, the situation is more than fun: Communist China, where there are obvious problems with democracy and human rights, is a capitalist country whose leaders like to talk about liberal democracy and other philosophical definition.

America

indexes the New World increased by 0,8-1,2% against the backdrop of upbeat macroeconomic statistics, the lack of negative surprises from the corporate sector (about CIT say later) and the statements Nurielya Rubin that the worst is behind us.

large American bank CIT, specializing in lending to small and medium-sized businesses, was on the verge of bankruptcy - some alarmists say that the response will be similar to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, I personally do not think so. First, the price of neprintsipialna (around $ 9 billion, if I recall correctly) and the relevant authorities are likely to support the problem asset. Secondly, the situation has already been anticipated and discussed, while Lehman has died unexpectedly. And third, since the beginning ofthe crisis in the United States ceased its activities fairly large number of credit institutions' average hands, so that only CIT is in line with the trends - unpleasant, but nothing more.

raw materials, currency, etc.

Industrial metals at auction in London to continue to grow and has already emerged in the area of monthly maximums for the composite index Exchange LME. Gold fluctuated slightly below $ 940 - This level serves as a resistance. U.S. dollar falls in relation to a basket of currencies, which promotes the growth of assets denominated in dollars. U.S. Treasury report showed that investors take money out of American securities, which means they can wait for the commodity and emerging markets, which expect great achievements.

Oil prices during the calendar shift contracts are moving quite volatile, but practically do not change: to mark Brent futures traded slightly above $ 63.25, WTI futures for the brand is just below the $ 62,5 (September contracts as at 9 — 00 Moscow time).

Statistics and Reporting

Today, 13-00 (Moscow time) went on the trade balance of the euro area excluding seasonal changes, 16-30 (Moscow time) published statistics on permits for the construction of new homes in the United States. Report Bank of America, Citigroup, General Electric, and for dessert Mosenergo (first quarter of IFRS).

Outlook

I look forward to opening in the Russian stock market to break up within 1%, reflecting a positive external background. As long as oil is above $ 60, the market will focus on adherence to external developments, and if oil goes higher, the trend of growth only exacerbated. But if oil falls below $ 60, then the dynamics of the background of foreign markets, we are not much help, except that slow down the start time of the failure.

Yesterday negative index MICEX I am inclined to consider as a temporary stopping and breathing, while 950 points - this is the first target level for the implementation of the capacity figures turned a head and shoulders. I think that today, the MICEX index would re-attempt the storming of the mark and associated quick-moving average.

In the long run, I do not share the opinion that the worst is behind us and look forward to the deteriorating situation in the autumn. I think stronger than all adversely affected the construction industry and the banking sector - debt vylezet first to second, and the situation with the increase of delay to get out of hand controllers. Economy is literally at the last reserves, macroeconomic statistics such as beginning to straighten, but stabilization does not mean bright prospects - stagnation may take a long time.

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