Today will be published reporting BMW, BNP Paribas, StatoilHydro and Toyota

New frontiers at the expense of the Fed

Russia

The Russian stock market update the local maximum in the course of yesterday's trading session: RTS index rose by 4,96%, MICEX index added 4.35%. Better market looked metallurgical sector, and in the second line may be noted some positive developments. The volume of trades on the RTS Stock Exchange was $ 3.13 billion, of which $ 1.85 billion was accounted for by the term market instruments, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section natorgovala at 173.8 billion rubles, the turnover in the index was 81.8 billion rubles.

Europe

Old World Index grew by 1.6%, after positive statements of the financial sector, macroeconomic statistics, and a neutral statement of Alan Greenspan, about the end of the economic recession. Regarding the latter point, the exacerbation of the reaction to the words of former chairman of the Fed seems strange to me personally: not meaningful Greenspan took office, and, consequently, all the allegations are deeply private. Besides, Alan Greenspan, described as one of the perpetrators of the current crisis, which automatically leads to the sad reflections on the significance and value of any of his statements in public.

America

New World Index grew by 1,25-1,5%, again under the influence of corporate accounting data and macroeconomic statistics. Although in reality all the increase attributable to one simple factor: the major players is simply nowhere to put the dollar, which is so generously gives the Fed, so they buy any less interesting assets, fearing a devaluation of American currency. The focus is mainly on raw materials - purchase futures gives investors the illusion of having some physical goods.

raw materials, currency, etc.

Industrial metals at auction in London on the rise: the reduction of stocks is not the case, but the rumors that the economy is about to begin to recover fuel demand. Gold shot to $ 960, but the U.S. Dollar Breaks Through its two-month minimum, which explains every upward movement in world markets at once: the inflation of assets, gentlemen. The closest reference point for the dollar lies the level of the last year that under certain manipulations with the numbers suggests another 300-400 points on the index S P500.

futures mark WTI crude oil traded around $ 70.5, oil futures traded slightly brands Brent below $ 72.75. While the demand for hydrocarbons matched only panic statements of a number of experts on the shortage of energy in the next year, but officials of OPEC if conjuration firm figure $ 70 (although they have little by little moved at $ 80).

Statistics and Reporting

Today, 12-30 (Moscow time) is published index of business activity in the construction sector of Great Britain, 13-00 (Moscow time) is the index of production prices in the euro area, in the 16-30 (Moscow time) published statistics on consumer spending in the United States, at 18-00 (Moscow time) is recorded on uncompleted transactions in residential real estate in the United States of America (the real estate market is attracting a lot of views: from the crisis began, he has to start and recovery).

Seasons accounting gradually go away, but occasionally appear big names, for example, today is BMW, BNP Paribas, StatoilHydro, and Toyota. Among the Russian companies are the VTB with the report for the first quarter of 2009.

Outlook

I expect the neutral start bidding on the Russian stock market is possible, even a small gap down, and the predominance of bear sentiment in the early hours of bidding on a slightly podeshevevshey oil (compared with our yesterday's close). With regard to the market in general, the strategy remains the same: to monitor the oil prices where they go, there go our market.

From the perspective of technical analysis of the MICEX index, it seems, went otygryvat turn your head and shoulders with the current goal for 1200 points. Despite global outburst of optimism and that the pessimist to be no longer fashionable, I do not expect to see our market higher highs this year. Moreover, can become a double peak and then you can expect the output to minimize the year. But there is one point about which we should mention: pessimistic scenario is possible only if the Fed starts to do something with money or macroeconomic statistics and corporate reports for the third quarter will be disappointing, otherwise the bulls smetut at all the way - there is no barrier to inflate bubbles speculators.

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