sale of the Odessa port plant turned into a game with constantly changing rules. ..
And the losers in it are already known. Which game are the main actors of the privatization of a large tournament?
Г‚В
Valery
Gorbatko tired of games being conducted around the sale of the Odessa port plant. For 23 years, during which he headed the company, pressure on the Odessa port plant has reached its climax. Over the last year not very public head was forced repeatedly to participate in live, giving interviews and promote the Government's position on the privatization of the enterprise.
director of a key chemical asset of the country is tired to talk about that today for the privatization of IPF - a question of life. The plant is well developed, but the market situation is changing: rising gas prices and the price of fertilizer falls. In Europe, does not add any new venture, but has been closed for 15, - said Valeriy Gorbatko and he immediately added that the plant is far from bankruptcy, although it is in the process of sustainable minus.
What is really so crippled IPF: the real state of the market, a blazing financial crisis or government's desire to earn money by selling chicken once lays golden eggs, you can only guess. 16-year-old game called Ask IPF may be completed on September 29. Major parties in it belong to the President and Prime Minister of Ukraine. At different stages were connected to them potential candidates for strategic himaktiv. The plant itself in this game proved to be a cog, which is as twirled and play.
today from more than 20 companies, claiming once in IPF, in the final stretch came just three - Russia's Nitrogen-Service, affiliated with the subsidiary of Gazprom's Sibur, as well as Ukrainian Nortima , which is associated with businessman Igor Kolomoisky, and Frunze Flora , part of the business empire of Constantine Grigorishin. And if the winners of the game for sale AEs are still unknown, the losers have to eat. We analyzed the moves involved in the process and their chances of winning.
game of power
In this game the Ukrainian government is once again demonstrated its inability to follow the selected position. Statements Viktor Yushchenko to ban the privatization of blue chips discouraged some investors from participating in tenders. As a result, the 13 companies granted permission to buy the IPF Anti-Monopoly Committee, to participate in the scandal have decided to contest all three.
Against this background, the game of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is at least consistent. Head of Cabinet of Ministers have repeatedly voiced, that the release of the processes of privatization and sale by auction of the remaining assets of the State Government to see, first, a way to minimize the effects of the crisis for the company, and secondly - the source for filling the state budget.
No sales
AEs listed in the budget expected from the privatization of 8 billion hryvnia is not possible. It is understood the President, in signing the 2009 budget. However, both the Prime Minister does not bother that the price to be sold in the current context objects, including the OPP, will be understated. This is the main negative position of the second branch.
Total
best time to sell OPP was missed. Only last year, the IPF has lost in the price of at least $ 80 million, with an increase in the dollar and the plant continues to rapidly lose weight, because the starting price indicated in UAH. Intrastate conflicts have led to loss of interest in the competition reputable foreign investors.
Big Brother
One of the main contenders for the Odessa chemical plant was considered a consortium of three, which included Norway's Yara International ASA, a Libyan state holding company Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) and the Polish Kulczyk Holding SA, owned by the richest businessman in Poland Jan Kulcheku. Join Trinity sought and Ukrainian businessmen, in particular the leader of the group Privat Igor Kolomoisky and Kharkiv businessman Alexander Yaroslavsky.
According to experts, the main purpose of association of foreign players was not so much financial strengthen competitiveness, how to bypass bottlenecks Ukrainian privatization legislation. The fact that these companies turned out to be a large share of government property, and according to domestic law in privatization can not run a company in which more than 25% share of another state. After the unification of the consortium was the favorite of the contest, but fizzled out by opening a green light the remaining players.
As a result, by the end of last week, the undisputed leader in the fight for IPF was Daughter of Gazprom - Sibur Holding. The competition will represent the interests of the Russians its structural division Nitrogen-Service. This is the most active participant. First, Sibur - first of all the companies listed deposit of 400 million hryvnia to participate in the privatization race. Secondly, this company can represent the interests of a large number of chemical enterprises in Russia, in particular, Russia Evrokhim, an active participant in the previous contest. Thirdly, Sibur has the support of Russia's authorities, which means that funds in the required amount. For this reason, the company is not too alarming number of lawsuits, prohibiting the sale of Ukrainian strategist.
The fact that the future owner of the IPF will control the export of ammonia to Russia and Ukraine, will make potential investors do not step in the bidding and gives every reason to believe that it is the Russians will put them a point. Today, they are quite openly and quite determined.
However, to prevent their movement to the target can other members of the privatization process, which were still at the main contender for IPF - Company Nitrogen-Service - a weak spot. It, like the Norwegian Yara International, is the dominance in the ownership structure of the company government stake. According to the intricacies of relationships - through Gazprom and Gazprombank share of state ownership in authorized capital of Sibur Holding and accordingly, controlled by his challenger Ltd. Nitrogen-Service, more than 30%. As mentioned above, the participation of Sibur Holding, in fact, Russia's state-owned companies in the privatization tender for the sale of state shares OPP contradicts the current legislation of Ukraine. Such a conclusion a week before the competition did the court in the course of the lawsuit filed by Dneproazot - now within the scope of control group Privat Igor Kolomoisky.
At the moment, certain circles in Ukraine make every attempt to avoid an open, fair and transparent privatization of the Odessa port plant, which would allow the company to find a strategic investor and new efficient owner. This is not so much challenged the legitimacy of the competition, as part it of Russia's - believe in Russia's holding company.
Total
Participation, a consortium of three along with world leading companies testified to the transparency and the prestige of the competition. Moreover, their participation ensures tough competition, and hence the growth rates of IPF.
Sibur Holding - a strong profile and investor that can provide an unlimited number of gas company. Cons hiding in the political risks: first, in the case of purchase Sibur IPF, in Russia, except the gas pipes, there is another lever of influence on Ukraine. Secondly, it increases the risk of bankruptcy of domestic himpredpriyaty and buying for the Russians.
Ukrainian alchemist
never concealed its interest in buying IPF Igor Kolomoisky. To increase the chances of winning, he is actively searching for partners for joint purchases of Odessa company. But apart from Kharkov businessman Alexander Yaroslavsky, who wish to cooperate with the infamous entrepreneur was not found.
now co-owner of Privat Group is playing an elaborate game, the objective of which - if not to buy IPF itself, then at least do not give the company to buy another. Therefore Kolomoysky interested in the appearance of complaints in the courts and the decision to ban the privatization of IPF. Claims in Dnipropetrovsk oligarch and his partner Alexander Yaroslavsky coincided with the official position articulated by Viktor Yushchenko who wanted to stop the contest. As a result, many have the impression that the country's president, Igor Kolomoisky and former head of the State Property Fund Valentina Semeniuk-Samsonenko, is also seeking to block the sale, play one game in this game.
Once, despite the protest of the President and lawsuits, the government announced its intention to bring the competition to sell public policy to its logical conclusion, Kolomoysky made a second step. At the tender for the privatization of the IPF application filed by Nortima, which represented the interests of the businessman during last year's attempts to sell the plant. As a true player, a famous tycoon preferred to be not a spectator sale IPF, and an active participant in this process.
Further in the game for sale IPF Kolomoysky can play a few scenarios. First, stop buying the company Russians. Moreover, such a precedent has already been. It was to prevent defeat Evrokhim company Nortima participated in the competition on sale of the IPF in May last year. We have applied to participate in the tender only because there was Evrokhim. The fact that the conditions of competition are written so that if it involves only one party, it isautomatically declared the winner and pays the price for peer review. We do not want to do Evrokhim such a gift, - then said Igor Kolomoisky. His plans at that time amounted to this, to declare a large sum, to become a winner, but eventually resign to clarify all the circumstances and the announcement of a new competition.
It seems that this time the plans Kolomoisky - to cross the road Sibur. That, he said Justice for illegal participation in the contest of Nitrogen-Service. In circumstances where legitimate contenders for the IPF will remain only two - the company Nortima and Frunze Flora, the chances of winning the group Privat will increase with space velocity. However, analysts IG Socrates admit that the group Privat, which controls a number himpredpriyaty, the purchase IPF may be a greater degree of portfolio investments, made to further speculative resale.
In addition, it is possible that the Dnipropetrovsk businessman playing a different game, whose purpose - to get kickbacks from the Russians in the form of agreements on further cooperation and future preferential tsiyah for Dniproazot.
Total
It seems that in any of the options Igor Kolomoisky will win.
Flowers by Grigorishin
most dark horse in the current race for the IPF was the company Frunze Flora. Its traces are in Cyprus and to Russia's businessman Konstantin Grigorishin, Group President, Energy Standard, which owns large stakes in a number of electricity distribution companies in Ukraine, as well as mechanical engineering, in particular, Sumy NPO im. Frunze and Zaporozhye transformer. Until recently, the chemistry does not fall within the scope of interests of Konstantin Grigorishin. Which party in this case, it playing?
One option: Grigorishin will participate in the privatization of AEs to someone of foreign ownership, for resale or for the commission, believes the chief of analytical department of IG Socrates Konstantin Stepanov. It can be as Evrokhim wishing to receive the Odessa company at any price, and one of the consortium of three - the Libyan state holding Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) - part of which is also directly limited the demand for private ownership of the applicants.
According to the second version, the businessman in Russia hedging his longtime partner and customer - Gazprom U Energy Standard is very well turned out to fit in a very closed market of equipment for Russia's fuel and energy complex. For example, last year Sumy NPO im. Frunze was awarded a contract to supply compression equipment to Gazprom to more than $ 60 million provided equipment to Russia's monopoly Grigorishin ensures their offspring long-standing orders for maintenance. But for the loyalty you have to pay. Perhaps his participation in the competition with a view to hedging Russia's partner and is a kind of gratitude for the services of Gazprom.
However, some experts suggested that Konstantin Grigorishin can act in the interests of Igor Kolomoisky. Especially lately businessmen have found a common language for power companies.
Total
Depends on whether, for whose benefit an Flora-Frunze.
Besides the money, which could bring the state sale of the Odessa port plant, the positive sides to Ukraine from the transaction have not yet seen. Preparations for the privatization of IPF has already tainted the image of actors from the government. Another disadvantage to the state is losing control over the risk of ammonia and nitrogen pressure on the enterprises of the country by a private investor. For this reason, in the case of a monopolist selling a loser can be attributed Ukrainian himpredpriyatiya tied to ammonia. Analysts said the IG Socrates, the market will inevitably awaits himudobreny redistribution and bankruptcy.
The winner will definitely be the winner of the auction for the sale of IPF, because he gets the control lever himpredpriyatiyami Russia and Ukraine, will increase its export potential, while cash in the headache of multiple trials. Perhaps, in the black will be the Odessa Port Factory. Especially if the new owner will have access to cheap gas, which greatly depends on the financial position and competitiveness of the plant. A role in the prospects for further development of the IPF will play a nicety new owner in the performance of numerous investobyazatelstv.
At the same time, Valery Gorbatko really wants in games around the company has finally set point. The increased political attention not conducive to the production process, and the suspense makes the vague prospect of further development not only of IPF, but the whole of the ammonia market in the country.
Dina Parkhomchuk
There may be increased growth of the futures on the RTS index up to 130 000 points with the successful penetration in grades 125 500 points
Finam raised the rating of Sberbank
Unpredictable dollar
Look at today's market
British bankers will live on one salary
Company Kolomoiskiy proposed for IPF 5 billion UAH and won the competition
Martin Raiser: bad bank - a bad idea for Ukraine
Features of relations between Ukraine and the World Bank …
No flats, no money and no support …
Why defrauded investors in Ukraine to protect only the words ?…
Shares of the electricity and banking sectors are traded better market
Who will benefit from the privatization of IPF
sale of the Odessa port plant turned into a game with constantly changing rules. ..
And the losers in it are already known. Which game are the main actors of the privatization of a large tournament?
Г‚В
Valery
Gorbatko tired of games being conducted around the sale of the Odessa port plant. For 23 years, during which he headed the company, pressure on the Odessa port plant has reached its climax. Over the last year not very public head was forced repeatedly to participate in live, giving interviews and promote the Government's position on the privatization of the enterprise.
director of a key chemical asset of the country is tired to talk about that today for the privatization of IPF - a question of life. The plant is well developed, but the market situation is changing: rising gas prices and the price of fertilizer falls. In Europe, does not add any new venture, but has been closed for 15, - said Valeriy Gorbatko and he immediately added that the plant is far from bankruptcy, although it is in the process of sustainable minus.
What is really so crippled IPF: the real state of the market, a blazing financial crisis or government's desire to earn money by selling chicken once lays golden eggs, you can only guess. 16-year-old game called Ask IPF may be completed on September 29. Major parties in it belong to the President and Prime Minister of Ukraine. At different stages were connected to them potential candidates for strategic himaktiv. The plant itself in this game proved to be a cog, which is as twirled and play.
today from more than 20 companies, claiming once in IPF, in the final stretch came just three - Russia's Nitrogen-Service, affiliated with the subsidiary of Gazprom's Sibur, as well as Ukrainian Nortima , which is associated with businessman Igor Kolomoisky, and Frunze Flora , part of the business empire of Constantine Grigorishin. And if the winners of the game for sale AEs are still unknown, the losers have to eat. We analyzed the moves involved in the process and their chances of winning.
game of power
In this game the Ukrainian government is once again demonstrated its inability to follow the selected position. Statements Viktor Yushchenko to ban the privatization of blue chips discouraged some investors from participating in tenders. As a result, the 13 companies granted permission to buy the IPF Anti-Monopoly Committee, to participate in the scandal have decided to contest all three.
Against this background, the game of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is at least consistent. Head of Cabinet of Ministers have repeatedly voiced, that the release of the processes of privatization and sale by auction of the remaining assets of the State Government to see, first, a way to minimize the effects of the crisis for the company, and secondly - the source for filling the state budget.
No sales
AEs listed in the budget expected from the privatization of 8 billion hryvnia is not possible. It is understood the President, in signing the 2009 budget. However, both the Prime Minister does not bother that the price to be sold in the current context objects, including the OPP, will be understated. This is the main negative position of the second branch.
Total
best time to sell OPP was missed. Only last year, the IPF has lost in the price of at least $ 80 million, with an increase in the dollar and the plant continues to rapidly lose weight, because the starting price indicated in UAH. Intrastate conflicts have led to loss of interest in the competition reputable foreign investors.
Big Brother
One of the main contenders for the Odessa chemical plant was considered a consortium of three, which included Norway's Yara International ASA, a Libyan state holding company Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) and the Polish Kulczyk Holding SA, owned by the richest businessman in Poland Jan Kulcheku. Join Trinity sought and Ukrainian businessmen, in particular the leader of the group Privat Igor Kolomoisky and Kharkiv businessman Alexander Yaroslavsky.
According to experts, the main purpose of association of foreign players was not so much financial strengthen competitiveness, how to bypass bottlenecks Ukrainian privatization legislation. The fact that these companies turned out to be a large share of government property, and according to domestic law in privatization can not run a company in which more than 25% share of another state. After the unification of the consortium was the favorite of the contest, but fizzled out by opening a green light the remaining players.
As a result, by the end of last week, the undisputed leader in the fight for IPF was Daughter of Gazprom - Sibur Holding. The competition will represent the interests of the Russians its structural division Nitrogen-Service. This is the most active participant. First, Sibur - first of all the companies listed deposit of 400 million hryvnia to participate in the privatization race. Secondly, this company can represent the interests of a large number of chemical enterprises in Russia, in particular, Russia Evrokhim, an active participant in the previous contest. Thirdly, Sibur has the support of Russia's authorities, which means that funds in the required amount. For this reason, the company is not too alarming number of lawsuits, prohibiting the sale of Ukrainian strategist.
The fact that the future owner of the IPF will control the export of ammonia to Russia and Ukraine, will make potential investors do not step in the bidding and gives every reason to believe that it is the Russians will put them a point. Today, they are quite openly and quite determined.
However, to prevent their movement to the target can other members of the privatization process, which were still at the main contender for IPF - Company Nitrogen-Service - a weak spot. It, like the Norwegian Yara International, is the dominance in the ownership structure of the company government stake. According to the intricacies of relationships - through Gazprom and Gazprombank share of state ownership in authorized capital of Sibur Holding and accordingly, controlled by his challenger Ltd. Nitrogen-Service, more than 30%. As mentioned above, the participation of Sibur Holding, in fact, Russia's state-owned companies in the privatization tender for the sale of state shares OPP contradicts the current legislation of Ukraine. Such a conclusion a week before the competition did the court in the course of the lawsuit filed by Dneproazot - now within the scope of control group Privat Igor Kolomoisky.
At the moment, certain circles in Ukraine make every attempt to avoid an open, fair and transparent privatization of the Odessa port plant, which would allow the company to find a strategic investor and new efficient owner. This is not so much challenged the legitimacy of the competition, as part it of Russia's - believe in Russia's holding company.
Total
Participation, a consortium of three along with world leading companies testified to the transparency and the prestige of the competition. Moreover, their participation ensures tough competition, and hence the growth rates of IPF.
Sibur Holding - a strong profile and investor that can provide an unlimited number of gas company. Cons hiding in the political risks: first, in the case of purchase Sibur IPF, in Russia, except the gas pipes, there is another lever of influence on Ukraine. Secondly, it increases the risk of bankruptcy of domestic himpredpriyaty and buying for the Russians.
Ukrainian alchemist
never concealed its interest in buying IPF Igor Kolomoisky. To increase the chances of winning, he is actively searching for partners for joint purchases of Odessa company. But apart from Kharkov businessman Alexander Yaroslavsky, who wish to cooperate with the infamous entrepreneur was not found.
now co-owner of Privat Group is playing an elaborate game, the objective of which - if not to buy IPF itself, then at least do not give the company to buy another. Therefore Kolomoysky interested in the appearance of complaints in the courts and the decision to ban the privatization of IPF. Claims in Dnipropetrovsk oligarch and his partner Alexander Yaroslavsky coincided with the official position articulated by Viktor Yushchenko who wanted to stop the contest. As a result, many have the impression that the country's president, Igor Kolomoisky and former head of the State Property Fund Valentina Semeniuk-Samsonenko, is also seeking to block the sale, play one game in this game.
Once, despite the protest of the President and lawsuits, the government announced its intention to bring the competition to sell public policy to its logical conclusion, Kolomoysky made a second step. At the tender for the privatization of the IPF application filed by Nortima, which represented the interests of the businessman during last year's attempts to sell the plant. As a true player, a famous tycoon preferred to be not a spectator sale IPF, and an active participant in this process.
Further in the game for sale IPF Kolomoysky can play a few scenarios. First, stop buying the company Russians. Moreover, such a precedent has already been. It was to prevent defeat Evrokhim company Nortima participated in the competition on sale of the IPF in May last year. We have applied to participate in the tender only because there was Evrokhim. The fact that the conditions of competition are written so that if it involves only one party, it isautomatically declared the winner and pays the price for peer review. We do not want to do Evrokhim such a gift, - then said Igor Kolomoisky. His plans at that time amounted to this, to declare a large sum, to become a winner, but eventually resign to clarify all the circumstances and the announcement of a new competition.
It seems that this time the plans Kolomoisky - to cross the road Sibur. That, he said Justice for illegal participation in the contest of Nitrogen-Service. In circumstances where legitimate contenders for the IPF will remain only two - the company Nortima and Frunze Flora, the chances of winning the group Privat will increase with space velocity. However, analysts IG Socrates admit that the group Privat, which controls a number himpredpriyaty, the purchase IPF may be a greater degree of portfolio investments, made to further speculative resale.
In addition, it is possible that the Dnipropetrovsk businessman playing a different game, whose purpose - to get kickbacks from the Russians in the form of agreements on further cooperation and future preferential tsiyah for Dniproazot.
Total
It seems that in any of the options Igor Kolomoisky will win.
Flowers by Grigorishin
most dark horse in the current race for the IPF was the company Frunze Flora. Its traces are in Cyprus and to Russia's businessman Konstantin Grigorishin, Group President, Energy Standard, which owns large stakes in a number of electricity distribution companies in Ukraine, as well as mechanical engineering, in particular, Sumy NPO im. Frunze and Zaporozhye transformer. Until recently, the chemistry does not fall within the scope of interests of Konstantin Grigorishin. Which party in this case, it playing?
One option: Grigorishin will participate in the privatization of AEs to someone of foreign ownership, for resale or for the commission, believes the chief of analytical department of IG Socrates Konstantin Stepanov. It can be as Evrokhim wishing to receive the Odessa company at any price, and one of the consortium of three - the Libyan state holding Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) - part of which is also directly limited the demand for private ownership of the applicants.
According to the second version, the businessman in Russia hedging his longtime partner and customer - Gazprom U Energy Standard is very well turned out to fit in a very closed market of equipment for Russia's fuel and energy complex. For example, last year Sumy NPO im. Frunze was awarded a contract to supply compression equipment to Gazprom to more than $ 60 million provided equipment to Russia's monopoly Grigorishin ensures their offspring long-standing orders for maintenance. But for the loyalty you have to pay. Perhaps his participation in the competition with a view to hedging Russia's partner and is a kind of gratitude for the services of Gazprom.
However, some experts suggested that Konstantin Grigorishin can act in the interests of Igor Kolomoisky. Especially lately businessmen have found a common language for power companies.
Total
Depends on whether, for whose benefit an Flora-Frunze.
Besides the money, which could bring the state sale of the Odessa port plant, the positive sides to Ukraine from the transaction have not yet seen. Preparations for the privatization of IPF has already tainted the image of actors from the government. Another disadvantage to the state is losing control over the risk of ammonia and nitrogen pressure on the enterprises of the country by a private investor. For this reason, in the case of a monopolist selling a loser can be attributed Ukrainian himpredpriyatiya tied to ammonia. Analysts said the IG Socrates, the market will inevitably awaits himudobreny redistribution and bankruptcy.
The winner will definitely be the winner of the auction for the sale of IPF, because he gets the control lever himpredpriyatiyami Russia and Ukraine, will increase its export potential, while cash in the headache of multiple trials. Perhaps, in the black will be the Odessa Port Factory. Especially if the new owner will have access to cheap gas, which greatly depends on the financial position and competitiveness of the plant. A role in the prospects for further development of the IPF will play a nicety new owner in the performance of numerous investobyazatelstv.
At the same time, Valery Gorbatko really wants in games around the company has finally set point. The increased political attention not conducive to the production process, and the suspense makes the vague prospect of further development not only of IPF, but the whole of the ammonia market in the country.
Dina Parkhomchuk
There may be increased growth of the futures on the RTS index up to 130 000 points with the successful penetration in grades 125 500 points
Finam raised the rating of Sberbank
Unpredictable dollar
Look at today's market
British bankers will live on one salary
Company Kolomoiskiy proposed for IPF 5 billion UAH and won the competition
Martin Raiser: bad bank - a bad idea for Ukraine
Features of relations between Ukraine and the World Bank …
No flats, no money and no support …
Why defrauded investors in Ukraine to protect only the words ?…
Shares of the electricity and banking sectors are traded better market