Overview of the foreign exchange market 17.06.2009

 

Fundamental factors affecting the situation now in the FX, the last trading day does not seem to have changed significantly. These American macro-and microeconomics in that period was still mainly been relatively favorable for the segment on the highly risky nature of the assets.

On Wednesday it became known that China's GDP in the II quarter of 2009increased by 7,9% (g /g), and these figures exceeded forecasts of analysts who thought that the growth of Chinese economy will be in the period 7.5 % year on year.

vast majority of U.S. companies, most of them from the real economic sector data released yesterday by EPS, exceeding forecasts of the leading analysis of market structures.

Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. Department of Labor, according to the data for the latest reporting week, dropped to 522 000 to 569 000 the previous week, and analysts expected an average value of this index at the level of 530 000.

This statistics

partially reverse the negative effect of information on reducing the index of business climate in the industry, calculated FRB Philadelphia. This indicator in July, TG fell to -7.5 pt. to -2.2 in May 2009 and -4.9 points - according to the average forecast of specialists. Most of its calculation of the indicators have shown improvement during the period of dynamics compared to the previous reporting period, however, this does not apply to SAB-indices of employment and the volume of shipped products.

However, during the active phase of the credit crisis earlier this year, the value of this indicator was significantly less positive in nature, accounting for -40 pt. In addition, the industry market expectations in this case in July, TG firmly maintained its position above a semi-annual average.

Meanwhile, factors hindering yesterday positive dynamics, including - and the stock market sector carry trade, is obviously given by the possible bankruptcy of U.S. bank CIT Group, a major lender to small and medium-sized businesses. During the credit boom, the Financial Corporation to increase their over-investment in higher mortgage and consumer market segments.

serious negative effects for U.S. economic and financial system as a whole in this case is not expected. However, this situation demonstrates once again the urgency for the U.S. economy and the world at large problems toxic bank assets, which, apparently, constantly, with a force to be reminded of his term next year.

It is also worth noting that the significant reduction of costs forced the company Google - EPS statistics which, incidentally, in the second quarter. TG was significantly higher than market forecasts - caused a decrease in the negative, though not too significant, the reaction of investors, the stock market. Financial, manufacturing business begins restructuring to increase efficiency, which in the long run will be, obviously, to keep active in the global consumer sector.

Against this background, as well as the technical factors, a possible decline in the volume of investments in the segment on the highly risky investments in the short run is able to lead eventually to lower quotation EUR /USD on the global FX. At the same time, information on the reduction calculated by the Swiss ZEW Institute index of business expectations, with 9.7 points in May, TG up to 0.0 pt. in June 2009, it is likely to increase market expectations of a new round of currency intervention SNB against the national currency.

Nevertheless, in general, the situation in the risky investments that, in general, cautiously positive. Although the beneficial effect of this factor on the euro falling to expect a significant weakening of the euro to the dollar so far, perhaps, premature.

 

The current scenario of trade on the Russian stock market may be similar to the previous two
Traditionally, low summer Friday trades intraday volatility will increase Russia's indices
Appreciation of the ruble to the dollar declined slightly compared with the outcome of yesterday and this morning stood at 31.73
While the reporting season in the U.S. is clearly taking place on bychemu scenario
FINAM lowered the Sberbank
Indices of the Old World have increased by an average of 0.4%
Rubin: The worst moments of financial crisis behind
Forex Asia
Recommendations for actions Gazprom oil VTB prefam Transneft and the futures on the RTS index

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