Overview of the foreign exchange market for 02.06.2009

MinFin United States, apparently, has the support of China in matters of monetary policy. On Tuesday the U.S. TV Gaytner said that China appreciated the efforts of the American administration to help the economy of America, and is aware of the justification for its substantial fiscal deficit in the current environment. In doing so, according to Mr. Gaytnera: The United States will have the full support of China's involvement in making policy decisions that determine the shape of the international financial system. It is the role to be played by China, given its importance for the world economy.

Characteristically, the Chairman of China Construction Bank (CERs), one of the largest state bank of China, H. Shunkin said today that do not know how the U.S. dollar as reserve currency can be replaced in the foreseeable future at any other monetary units. According to the head of CERs, issued IMF SDR used for many years, but everyone knows that their use is limited. People are afraid of dollars because of the U.S. payments imbalances. But this factor, there is many years since the start of establishing a system of floating exchange rates in 70-ies..

Against this background, quotes the euro to the dollar have not been able to hold above 1.4200 marks and to the opening of today's European session, fell to a level of 1.4090.
Meanwhile, the market awaits the outcome of the meeting scheduled for Thursday the European Central Bank, which is likely to be announced new details of the leadership of the European macroeconomic monetary incentive. In May, TG The ECB announced a plan to buy from the open market of secured bonds in the amount of 60 billion euros, but the amount in terms of medium term is not significant for the European financial segment.

It should be noted that the IMF estimates, the cost of supporting the American economy in 2009 and 2010. be 2.0% and 1.8% of GDP respectively. Even in 4.5% of GDP in 2009 and 0.9% of GDP in 2010 will cost up to support the financial system of America. Similar statistics of EMC considerably more modest. Macroeconomic incentives at times of crisis in Germany, France and Italy account for $ 107 billion, $ 50 billion and $ 104 billion In addition, a fund to stabilize the financial market (SoFFin) volume of $ 660 billion

However, financial and structural problems of the economy in a unified Europe hardly less significant than in the United States. Typical in this regard is still very unstable situation in the economy peripheral countries of the European Union. For example, yesterday the Government of Latvia at the extraordinary meeting, approved an amendment to the state budget in 2009, providing for a budget deficit of 9.2% of GDP in the fall of the economy by 18% (g /d). At the same time, international credit funds raised at this point in the uncertainty that the regional governments of this country can, under the current structure of the Latvian state budget, reduce its costs by 1% of gross domestic product.

In general, this situation creates the possibility of further reducing the rate EUR /USD, however, the growing speculative activity in the financial sector will likely hinder this process.

Europe: fundamentals, halt tsarivshemu on the market optimism
Asia: GDP of Australia and the success in the housing sector investors to warm the soul
Overview of the foreign exchange market for 03.06.2009
Latin America: the U.S. housing market sentiment has improved a number of investors
U.S.: Housing industry and medical markets stretched to top
Europe: conflicting data have led to mixed results
Asia: news from North Korea to limit the growth of most markets
ETF in May: the continuation of a banquet
Week on the world stage: the oil without increasing the impact of OPEC

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