Producer prices of industrial goods in Russia in I-st half of 2009 grew by 10%, according to data Rosstat. The increase in prices observed the 5th consecutive month. In June of this year, they increased by 2.2%, which is 3 times higher than in May (0.6%). But compared to the same period the previous year the growth rate remained negative - minus 9.4%, reflecting a decline in producer prices since September 2008 to January 2009. The biggest drop was recorded in November last year. Then it reached minus 8.4% (see chart below).
Source: Rosstat
The main reason for the growth of industrial prices in June, experts called the rising cost of petroleum and petroleum products. The rest of raw materials, on average, continued to fall in price.
The main difference between dynamics of the May prices were petroleum products, which grew by 14.3%, by the way, has become sharply in price and production of chemical industry, - says Evgeny Nadorshin from NB Trust. - This is despite the fact that throughout
spring, despite the expensive raw materials, prices in these segments were
fairly stable and even declined to individual items .
Producer price indices for certain types of economic activity
| |
Previous month |
June 2009. to |
Memo June 2008. to |
| May 2009. |
June 2009. |
June 2008. |
December 2008. |
June 2007. |
December 2007. |
| Mining |
105,3 |
105,3 |
78,0 |
138,7 |
136,3 |
118,3 |
| production of fuel-energy minerals such |
106, 3 |
106,2 |
76,6 |
149,6 |
138,2 |
119,2 |
| minerals, except fuel and energy |
99, 4 |
99,3 |
88,9 |
92,0 |
117,2 |
109,1 |
| Manufacturing |
99,5 |
101,8 |
90,3 |
102,8 |
127,3 |
116,2 |
| production of food-ing, including beverages and tobacco |
100, 4 |
100,3 |
106,9 |
104,6 |
129,1 |
110,8 |
| Coke and petroleum products |
98,5 |
114,0 |
71,6 |
125,4 |
154 , 0 |
118,9 |
| chemicals |
98,4 |
98,2 |
86,7 |
98,6 |
137,8 |
126,1 |
| metallurgical production and production of finished metal products |
98,9 |
99,9 |
77,1 |
94,2 |
117,5 |
126,5 |
| production machinery and equipment |
100,4 |
100,1 |
109,5
104,0 |
118,8 |
111,7 |
| Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water |
100,3 |
99,7 |
119,7 |
117,8 |
115,4 |
118,0 |
| production, transmission and distribution |
100,4 |
99,5 |
119,7 |
117,1 |
116,0 |
117,2 |
| production, transmission and distribution of steam and hot water (thermal energy) |
100, 1 |
100,2 |
119,6 |
119,0 |
114,1 |
119,8 |
Source: Rosstat, data are given in%
Meanwhile, according to the head of the department review the bank debt market, St. Petersburg by Olga Lapshin, a key source of growth of production prices is to increase tariffs for natural monopolies. This year, prices in the production and consumption of electricity, gas and water rose by 19.7% y /y. For the industry in a crisis - it creates a more serious strain, given that in some manufacturing industries such as steel and mining complexes, the cost of electricity and transportation have considerable weight in the overall costs, - said the expert. - In view of the fact that the crisis forced companies to reduce prices for finished products, such cost increases, particularly unpleasant.
At the last Tuesday of the meeting with the leadership of the Federation Council of Russia Vladimir Putin noted that the complexity of the economic situation of complete freeze on the growth rates of natural monopolies is not speech, because of the economy more harm than good. Therefore, the state will raise rates, but carefully, trying not to exceed the inflation rate.
As the head of LED Elvira Nabiullina, from 2010 to prompotrebiteley indexation of tariffs for electricity is 5%, and rail freight 9.4%, natural gas and is 15%, while inflation is expected in the region of 10%. Apparently the authorities were looking forward to turning tendencies in the Russian economy. At the very least, slowing down the recession, they have already seen. Thus, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, the industrial production in Russia, purified from seasonal factors, in June rose by 0.8% compared to May. In May, cleared industry, according to Nabiullina, also demonstrated an increase (see chart below).
Source: Rosstat
However, chairman of the Moscow Confederation of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Vice-Chairman of the Duma Committee on Industry Elena Panina finds that no objective reasons for such growth rates there. This is simply a gosmonopolistov attempt to shift onto the shoulders of their business problems - it complains. - Why are gas or energy should undertake refurbishment, replacement of equipment, and expensive to take credit for someone else's expense?
Regular tariff increases, according to experts, only reinforce the lack of products of Russian manufacturers, 60% -70% of the cost of which now make up the cost of energy. In addition, it is inevitable and will affect the growth of consumer prices, adds head. Laboratory of Structural Problems of Economics Institute of the Economy in Transition Ol'ga Izryadnova.
According to the dynamics of consumer prices for the period from 30 June to 6 July, inflation in July, has ceased to slow down, and compared to the same period last year, maybe even faster (for the specified week potrebtseny has increased by 0.2%, while in July 2008 to growth was 0.5%). However, such a rotation, we were expecting, and perhaps that is why the Central Bank maintains a pause in lowering rates, - observes Eugene Nadorshin.
In fact, the Central Bank, according to statements by the First Deputy Chairman Alexei Bank Ulyukaeva still stubbornly hope for further decline in inflation. Thus, on the basis of July in the country can be recorded zero inflation in August - a slight deflation, says official.
Top events affecting Russian market
| Event |
Rating; |
Forecast |
| MACROECONOMICS
|
| overall situation in world stock markets |
C |
|
| The macroeconomic situation in the USA |
D |
|
| Macroeconomic situation in Russia |
B |
|
| POLICY
|
| Abkhazia left the Chief Military Observer of the UN |
P |
|
ÂÂ
| COMMODITY MARKETS
|
| level of world oil prices |
C |
|
| level of world prices for metals |
P |
|
| SECTORAL AND CORPORATE NEWS
|
| In the 2 quarter of 2009, Mechel cut coal production by 13% to 2.99 million tonnes |
C |
|
ÂÂ
| Veropharm will not pay dividends on the results of 2008 |
C |
|
| FESCO Net profit under IFRS for the year 2008 decreased by 80% to $ 20 million |
In |
|
ÂÂ
NOTE:
- most powerful influence on the market have an event with A-rated events with top D on our scale, have little influence.
- Sections Macroeconomics and commodity markets in column 2 in the brackets can be specified rating the previous day.
- Arrow down in the column 3 points to the likely negative impact on the market, the arrow up - the positive /neutral.
Investment
background - moderately positive
Top-down trend, formed in June, now tested on the MICEX index of Perforation
Most futures on shares of Russian enterprises was closed in the black, showing good growth
Factors of good reporting of U.S. companies and stabilize oil prices have not yet before the end of play
Tomorrow's opening of tenders will be determined by the Russian news from the U.S.
As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trades on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 135.19 billion rubles
MTS attracted additional syndicated loan of $ 100 million
Experts call the main contenders for the purchase of Odessa port plant, Russian companies
PFTS has introduced the possibility of concluding transactions between customers of one brokerage
The prices of shares of fuel and energy complex, metallurgy and production of its dynamics reflect a general trend of global stock market
Promproizvodstvo on the basis of the 1st semester: fall against the backdrop of rising prices
 Producer prices of industrial goods in Russia in I-st half of 2009 grew by 10%, according to data Rosstat. The increase in prices observed the 5th consecutive month. In June of this year, they increased by 2.2%, which is 3 times higher than in May (0.6%). But compared to the same period the previous year the growth rate remained negative - minus 9.4%, reflecting a decline in producer prices since September 2008 to January 2009. The biggest drop was recorded in November last year. Then it reached minus 8.4% (see chart below).
Source: Rosstat
The main reason for the growth of industrial prices in June, experts called the rising cost of petroleum and petroleum products. The rest of raw materials, on average, continued to fall in price.
The main difference between dynamics of the May prices were petroleum products, which grew by 14.3%, by the way, has become sharply in price and production of chemical industry, - says Evgeny Nadorshin from NB Trust. - This is despite the fact that throughout
spring, despite the expensive raw materials, prices in these segments were
fairly stable and even declined to individual items .
Producer price indices for certain types of economic activity
Source: Rosstat, data are given in%
Meanwhile, according to the head of the department review the bank debt market, St. Petersburg by Olga Lapshin, a key source of growth of production prices is to increase tariffs for natural monopolies. This year, prices in the production and consumption of electricity, gas and water rose by 19.7% y /y. For the industry in a crisis - it creates a more serious strain, given that in some manufacturing industries such as steel and mining complexes, the cost of electricity and transportation have considerable weight in the overall costs, - said the expert. - In view of the fact that the crisis forced companies to reduce prices for finished products, such cost increases, particularly unpleasant.
At the last Tuesday of the meeting with the leadership of the Federation Council of Russia Vladimir Putin noted that the complexity of the economic situation of complete freeze on the growth rates of natural monopolies is not speech, because of the economy more harm than good. Therefore, the state will raise rates, but carefully, trying not to exceed the inflation rate.
As the head of LED Elvira Nabiullina, from 2010 to prompotrebiteley indexation of tariffs for electricity is 5%, and rail freight 9.4%, natural gas and is 15%, while inflation is expected in the region of 10%. Apparently the authorities were looking forward to turning tendencies in the Russian economy. At the very least, slowing down the recession, they have already seen. Thus, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, the industrial production in Russia, purified from seasonal factors, in June rose by 0.8% compared to May. In May, cleared industry, according to Nabiullina, also demonstrated an increase (see chart below).
Source: Rosstat
However, chairman of the Moscow Confederation of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Vice-Chairman of the Duma Committee on Industry Elena Panina finds that no objective reasons for such growth rates there. This is simply a gosmonopolistov attempt to shift onto the shoulders of their business problems - it complains. - Why are gas or energy should undertake refurbishment, replacement of equipment, and expensive to take credit for someone else's expense?
Regular tariff increases, according to experts, only reinforce the lack of products of Russian manufacturers, 60% -70% of the cost of which now make up the cost of energy. In addition, it is inevitable and will affect the growth of consumer prices, adds head. Laboratory of Structural Problems of Economics Institute of the Economy in Transition Ol'ga Izryadnova.
According to the dynamics of consumer prices for the period from 30 June to 6 July, inflation in July, has ceased to slow down, and compared to the same period last year, maybe even faster (for the specified week potrebtseny has increased by 0.2%, while in July 2008 to growth was 0.5%). However, such a rotation, we were expecting, and perhaps that is why the Central Bank maintains a pause in lowering rates, - observes Eugene Nadorshin.
In fact, the Central Bank, according to statements by the First Deputy Chairman Alexei Bank Ulyukaeva still stubbornly hope for further decline in inflation. Thus, on the basis of July in the country can be recorded zero inflation in August - a slight deflation, says official.
Top events affecting Russian market
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NOTE:
Investment
background - moderately positive
Top-down trend, formed in June, now tested on the MICEX index of Perforation
Most futures on shares of Russian enterprises was closed in the black, showing good growth
Factors of good reporting of U.S. companies and stabilize oil prices have not yet before the end of play
Tomorrow's opening of tenders will be determined by the Russian news from the U.S.
As of 18:00 Moscow time the volume of trades on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 135.19 billion rubles
MTS attracted additional syndicated loan of $ 100 million
Experts call the main contenders for the purchase of Odessa port plant, Russian companies
PFTS has introduced the possibility of concluding transactions between customers of one brokerage
The prices of shares of fuel and energy complex, metallurgy and production of its dynamics reflect a general trend of global stock market