Gradually
talk about the crisis of the area “from which he took?” and who is to blame? ” moved to the area of “how long will it live?” and “Who will be worse of all?”Unfortunately, Russia has, until recently the former had “an island of stability”, the prospects are not very optimistic. According to economists the UN in the former Soviet Union, our country, as well as Kazakhstan and Ukraine, most of all suffer from a recession in 2009.
Harsh WeekdayStartTime
This year, as the authors predict that the report “World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2009″ (World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009), the world will live in a reduction in per capita income, reducing the growth of exports and capital inflows, as well as the significant devaluation of dollar. In addition to this heritage in the developing countries will also increase the cost of borrowing.
His vision for the further development of the situation, economists suggested that the UN, as has become fashionable in some scenarios. The first, the growth of world GDP fell by 1% (against 2.5% in 2008.), The level of production in developed countries be reduced to 0, 5%. As for countries with economies in transition, then, according to economists forecasts, due to falling prices for oil and metals, as well as the impact of the global financial system, expects a slowdown to 6.9% in 2008 to 4,6% in 2009 .
“In view of uncertainty that prevails today, it is possible and pessimistic scenario” - the economists believe. They do not deny the likelihood that in the developed countries in 2009 could be a deep recession, which would lead to lower economic growth in developing countries, up to 2,7%. Such a situation, according to experts, threatens further spread of poverty among the population, as well as social and political nespokoystviem.
“Probably at the UN are right that the economy of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan seriously affected - said analyst IC” Capital “Fedor Navumau. - Now on this topic a lot of opinions, someone said that Ukraine will have all the worse because there is no no reserves of natural resources, but also the political uncertainty. While, on the other hand, they all have the bacon, in themselves, they are more flexible economy and a more democratic and economically, so they are faster than anyone can vypravitsya. But they also very weak, so I do not think that there is much to be proud of. ”
As far as Kazakhstan, he was, according to the analyst, the first of the three countries went into crisis, and it is possible that the “garland” to combat the crisis will belong to him. “We just try to play in any democracy … Kazakhstan, in contrast, makes clear its policy. They did not devalue the national currency, the debt the state can not, and quite possibly from a serious crisis, they will be able to hide if these are just the price Oil does not collapse, “- thought Navumau.
But the results of 2008 in Russia, it seems, finally disappointed experts. “Inefficiency of Gosplan and limited channels for public support and liquidity for the medium-sized companies makes the scenario a” hard landing “for Russia increasingly likely”, - said the chief economist of Merrill Lynch Julia Tseplyaeva. - We are changing our forecast of growth of the Russian economy from 3,7 to 0,9% “.
react slowly, and we work too
The UN noted that the authorities responsible for economic policy in developing countries, simply lost precious time in the III quarter of 2008, focusing on the growth of inflation. Monetary policy a number of other countries, according to UN experts, also left much to be desired, despite calls by the organization to consolidate in the U.S. economy, coupled with financial incentives in countries with strong balance of payments, such as China and Japan, as well as in Europe .
Since October 2008 the country has finally begun a joint effort to combat the financial crisis. In order to unfreeze credit and financial markets in the world spent some $ 4 trillion. But today, a further lowering of interest rates by central banks to UN economists ineffective and fiscal policy the United States, China and Korea, undertaken in order to maintain their economies are largely effective, but still insufficient.
“Reliable, global coordination mechanism established package of incentives or monetary policy at present does not exist”, - believed in the organization. Such a mechanism has yet to be established but that, according to experts, requires serious reform of the global financial system.
Our ranking events has changed.
Rating developments affecting the Russian market
| Event |
Rating; |
Outlook |
| MACROECONOMICS
|
| overall situation on world stock markets |
C |
|
| The macroeconomic situation in the USA |
D |
|
| The macroeconomic situation in Russia |
B |
|
ÕÎ
| POLICY
|
| Tymoshenko and Putin met in Moscow to discuss the details of the deal on the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine |
C |
|
| COMMODITY MARKETS
|
| level of world oil prices |
C |
|
| level of world prices for metals |
P |
|
ÕÎ
| SECTORAL AND CORPORATE NEWS
|
| “Gazprom and ENI have agreed to intensify efforts to prepare for the implementation of the project” South Stream ” |
P |
|
| Power WGC-1 in 2008 exceeded last year's |
P |
|
| FAS Russia fined “NK” Rosneft “for an amount exceeding 45 million rubles. anticompetitive agreement |
C |
|
ÕÎ
NOTE:
- most powerful influence on the market have an event with a rating, the events of D on top of our scale, have little influence.
- Sections “Macroeconomics” and “commodity markets” in column 2 of brackets could be given to top the previous day.
- Arrow “down” in the column, 3 points to the likely negative impact on the market, Arrow “up” - the positive /neutral.
Investment
background - neutral
FOREX Forecast » Russian Economy-2009: preparing for a hard landing
Gradually
talk about the crisis of the area “from which he took?” and who is to blame? ” moved to the area of “how long will it live?” and “Who will be worse of all?”Unfortunately, Russia has, until recently the former had “an island of stability”, the prospects are not very optimistic. According to economists the UN in the former Soviet Union, our country, as well as Kazakhstan and Ukraine, most of all suffer from a recession in 2009.
Harsh WeekdayStartTime
This year, as the authors predict that the report “World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2009″ (World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009), the world will live in a reduction in per capita income, reducing the growth of exports and capital inflows, as well as the significant devaluation of dollar. In addition to this heritage in the developing countries will also increase the cost of borrowing.
His vision for the further development of the situation, economists suggested that the UN, as has become fashionable in some scenarios. The first, the growth of world GDP fell by 1% (against 2.5% in 2008.), The level of production in developed countries be reduced to 0, 5%. As for countries with economies in transition, then, according to economists forecasts, due to falling prices for oil and metals, as well as the impact of the global financial system, expects a slowdown to 6.9% in 2008 to 4,6% in 2009 .
“In view of uncertainty that prevails today, it is possible and pessimistic scenario” - the economists believe. They do not deny the likelihood that in the developed countries in 2009 could be a deep recession, which would lead to lower economic growth in developing countries, up to 2,7%. Such a situation, according to experts, threatens further spread of poverty among the population, as well as social and political nespokoystviem.
“Probably at the UN are right that the economy of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan seriously affected - said analyst IC” Capital “Fedor Navumau. - Now on this topic a lot of opinions, someone said that Ukraine will have all the worse because there is no no reserves of natural resources, but also the political uncertainty. While, on the other hand, they all have the bacon, in themselves, they are more flexible economy and a more democratic and economically, so they are faster than anyone can vypravitsya. But they also very weak, so I do not think that there is much to be proud of. ”
As far as Kazakhstan, he was, according to the analyst, the first of the three countries went into crisis, and it is possible that the “garland” to combat the crisis will belong to him. “We just try to play in any democracy … Kazakhstan, in contrast, makes clear its policy. They did not devalue the national currency, the debt the state can not, and quite possibly from a serious crisis, they will be able to hide if these are just the price Oil does not collapse, “- thought Navumau.
But the results of 2008 in Russia, it seems, finally disappointed experts. “Inefficiency of Gosplan and limited channels for public support and liquidity for the medium-sized companies makes the scenario a” hard landing “for Russia increasingly likely”, - said the chief economist of Merrill Lynch Julia Tseplyaeva. - We are changing our forecast of growth of the Russian economy from 3,7 to 0,9% “.
react slowly, and we work too
The UN noted that the authorities responsible for economic policy in developing countries, simply lost precious time in the III quarter of 2008, focusing on the growth of inflation. Monetary policy a number of other countries, according to UN experts, also left much to be desired, despite calls by the organization to consolidate in the U.S. economy, coupled with financial incentives in countries with strong balance of payments, such as China and Japan, as well as in Europe .
Since October 2008 the country has finally begun a joint effort to combat the financial crisis. In order to unfreeze credit and financial markets in the world spent some $ 4 trillion. But today, a further lowering of interest rates by central banks to UN economists ineffective and fiscal policy the United States, China and Korea, undertaken in order to maintain their economies are largely effective, but still insufficient.
“Reliable, global coordination mechanism established package of incentives or monetary policy at present does not exist”, - believed in the organization. Such a mechanism has yet to be established but that, according to experts, requires serious reform of the global financial system.
Our ranking events has changed.
Rating developments affecting the Russian market
ÕÎ
ÕÎ
ÕÎ
NOTE:
Investment
background - neutral