findings of “Mirror of the Week” after the debate, were not very reassuring: banks are choking in the low-quality assets, budget, lose weight, and power and did not think to take steps to reform the economy and the resumption of lending. If such a “masterful disorder continue after the election, the economy itself will start the process of cleansing of non-professional management by default.

problems macroeconomic stability

Obviously, the most important matter of concern now, everyone - this is how to keep today”s shaky financial stability and the start of the stability of the process of economic recovery. The good and the reasons for this are: economic activity in Ukraine during the last three quarters restored. This is evidenced by the comparative assessment of GDP growth to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), made by the National Bank. Third consecutive quarter of growth is observed relative to previous quarters: 4,5-2,5-2,3% “, - says Igor Shumilo. But to restore the pre-crisis performance of the economy the country is still far: total score drop in GDP in 2009 by 2008 - minus 14.5%.

“Obviously, everybody remembers very pessimistic forecasts, and sounded on the exchange rate (called and 12 hryvnia to the dollar, and 15, and even higher), and on inflation. National Bank has been able both to stabilize the foreign exchange market and to achieve a steady reduction in inflation to 12.3%. While there is the so-called delayed inflation, which is the result of administrative against increase in regulated prices and tariffs, although such a change would make it more stable financial situation first and foremost “Naftogaz” - says the executive director of macroeconomic policy NBU . - In my view, there are conditions to this predictability, and are expected to keep inflation within the year and the future. ”

In his view, for its part, National Bank for making enough effort. “Monetary policy, while not hindering economic recovery in the second half of the year, was forced to more rigid due to considerable political and economic uncertainty, especially regarding the budget deficit and its sources of coverage as in 2009 and in 2010 - explains Igor Shumilo . - If you remember we said that our goal - to keep inflation between 13 and 14% by the end of next year, have no more than 10% and further to reach the level of 5-7% price growth per year. ”

is convinced that the representative of the National Bank, which is obviously shared by the majority of board members institutions, only a stable low inflation is the key to the emergence of long-term financial resources from banks, and even then with a certain lag. In other conditions - high inflation and high devaluation expectations - it is virtually impossible.

As regards the exchange rate, the Ukrainians, obviously, still have to continue to withd1000raw from its fixed values. “As you know, the NBU away from fixed exchange rate policy. We try to make the fluctuations were small. Exchange rate - is the one tool that should, on the one hand, stimulate exports, while not hindering the desired country of import, but on the other - to provide stability to possible external shocks “, - argues the executive director of the National Bank of modified vector in the policy institutions are still not very popular among the population and in the business environment.

However, he predicts that the major shocks of course already possible to not be afraid. “From my point of view, the economic justification for significant exchange rate fluctuations there. In 2009, the current account deficit amounted to 1.9 billion dollars, financial - 11,8 billion We believe that next year the situation is little better. On the current account - plus from 0 to $ 1 billion, the Financial - about 3-4 billion shortfall.

That is, the NBU, taking into account foreign exchange reserves have all possibilities to ensure stability in the foreign exchange market, “- reassures Mr. Shumilo. but warns that today macroeconomic stability depends largely on the budget deficit and the sources of its coverage of the 2010-th and the following year . is therefore important to take an early decision on these indicators and to adopt them in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The appearance of such a budget to the real sources of its content would ensure that expected and predictable, which so long awaited and business, and investors.

“I believe that those proposals that were at one time announced Acting Minister of Finance Igor Umansky the need for adjustments made by the Verkhovna Rada Budget toward decreasing revenues by 30 billion UAH. and spending - 40 billion are correct. The adoption of a realistic, credible budget will help stabilize the currency market and will help reduce inflation “, - stressed the representative of the National Bank.

According to roundtable participants, to some extent is not critical and the debt position of Ukraine. Authorities and commercial organizations in 2010, formally to return from nearly 30 to 37 billion dollars, but according to preliminary projections, including representatives of the Ministry of Finance and commercial banks, about 70% of the debt position will be restructured. “I think for this there are some rational expectations, since, given the global world, politics pouring cash crisis in the developed world, emitting convertible currencies, has brought results. Savings in these countries have grown and now have gone the flow of currency in other countries. We can therefore expect that the campaign for the assets will take place “- said Valery Geyets. He noted that free money will be spent on buying cheapened assets of commercial banks and cheapened assets in the economy, although this may lead to the formation of a financial pyramid real estate market.

According to the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NASU, at the exit from the crisis, about 70% of the portfolio will be owned by banks with foreign capital. And about 50% of our banking system will be controlled by foreign banks. “In such circumstances, the national regulators face a major challenge: how to influence the situation in the economy? How and on what scenario will be investing Ukrainian economy?” - Outlines the problem, Mr. Geyets. For nine years, economic growth modernization processes in the economy did not occur. How long we would be proud that the country came to foreign investment, they also come into the real economy. And domestic investors also do not engage in modernization. Neither the industry nor large-tonnage chemistry almost nothing qualitatively upgraded, and new production in these areas is not formed. Therefore, i1000f we follow the policy of the existing stable exchange rate, cumulative inflation dynamics will shape the conditions for the next double deficits.

In general indications of a possible recurrence of the crisis have already appeared. If the past year the economy was moving towards a surplus current account balance, now we are moving quite rapidly in the opposite direction. “If this could be explained only by some kind of record payments for gas, as last year - it would be so terrible. But he said the National Bank in the analytical evaluation of the balance of payments, at least 10%, even with the seasonal component increased imports of non-energy goods “, - said Roman Zhukovsky. So far the dynamics of the course will help support growth in imports, which became one of the main causes of shock and a sharp devaluation in late 2008. Moreover, in recent years been a gradual revaluation of the official rate. “I think that this can only reinforce the negative trend and to increase the flow of imported goods into the country” - warned the representative of the Presidential Secretariat.

At the same time, the dollarization of the economy is growing again. When the crisis began, the share of foreign currency deposits, for example, was 50%, but now the figure is closer to 65% already. This means that in the banking system, there were preconditions for shocks - in fact use the currency for lending to financial institutions now can not, and interest on such deposits are required to pay. “I”m not saying that this is necessarily a second wave of crisis or even to something, but over that the National Bank should consider. And if you do not, then consider that the question of stabilizing the exchange rate and the economy as a whole, moved away in the very distant perspective “, - emphasizes the Roman Zhukovsky.

Problems of filling the budget

Much now depends on the size of the budget deficit and the sources of its coverage for 2010. And all this time weighs heavily on all expectations. As noted by Valery Geyets expected in this year”s budget deficit - from the officially declared by 4% of GDP to 10.8%, according to various estimates - suggests that this is a very serious problem. Why in the 2009 budget year such a huge deficit, and why were formed such distortions? Because there was no coordinated work of all branches of government.

According to Vladimir Parnyuka, immediately, without waiting, who would become president, you need to prepare packages of reforms - decisions that would conceptually change the economic situation. And, above all, it concerns the tax field. “Valery said that the 2010 budget may be budgeted for 2005, that is, the budget is again eating, in which economic income base is weaker than is necessary for planned expenditures. I want to say more: it started when we introduced the country”s current model of taxation, - the director of the Department of Macroeconomic Forecasting, Ministry of Finance. - It is built on value-added tax, that is, the more value-added created the payer, the more he must pay into the budget. It is fundamentally wrong point of view, because it makes hiding value-added. Namely it we consume.

therefore need to raise the question of the efficiency of resource use - to tax the resources and the conceptual change approach to the taxation of profits. “By the way, next year we will not profit, because the losses incurred in 2009 will be mainly transferred 2010 - in fact we do not have a chance to develop, “- he added.

representative of the Finance Ministry said that to solve the problem of inadequate funding of the budget can only be substantially changing the fiscal system. First, it is a tax1000on spending. Secondly, higher rates of value added tax to 25%. Thirdly, the abolition of charges on the payroll as a base for generating income of pension and social funds. “If we do not, we will continue to develop material-intensive production that does not meet the latest international trends”, - said V. Parnyuk.

increase the VAT rate to 25%, as suggested by the representative of the Ministry of Finance, to compensate for the abolition of charges on labor of the population as the final consumer goods. Since the VAT payers must pay to the state tax liabilities for 30 days after their occurrence, the VAT increase will be for companies with something like a short-term credit facilities from the government on the domestic market.

about taxes on expenditure. “If we look at the structure of our economy, we see that 56% - this is intermediate consumption, the turnover, and the rest - it added value. If I have one hryvnia costs, sitting there 56% of what was burned, used, but no effect on the economy has not produced. It is necessary to change this structure. In developed economies, a completely different structure, intermediate consumption is lower, and it”s - our economy is a shadow. Therefore, we should make sure that no matter where they are going resources - whether for wages, whether the material production, whether for the purchase of raw materials, energy, - the taxpayer would pay in the budget “, - says Parnyuk. It also advises the Ministry of Finance and approach to the taxation of the expenses of which are in the shadow economy is much higher than the official income.

According to Roman Zhukovsky, such radical tax reform is unlikely to be implemented in the near future, so we need to look more moderate path, or at least implement the agreements already reached with the IMF, without whose support this year”s budget balance is almost impossible. “Today, virtually no VAT refunded, the debt already amounts to nearly 25 billion UAH. And once again surged tax overpayments: today they have reached nearly 13 billion UAH. Also on the financing of state budget expenditures involved resources of local budgets - about 8 billion UAH. That is formed by a huge array of debt that would threaten the fiscal stability even in the case if this year”s income was all right, “- emphasizes the Zhukovsky.

rectify the situation can only be an external stimulus - whether it be in receipt of money from outside, or in some external mechanism, which will be encouraged to undertake certain reforms and changes in economic policy. “Cooperation with the IMF, in my opinion, is such an external stimulus,” - said the representative of the president”s entourage.

but the cooperation with the IMF halted due to the fact, that Ukraine had assumed commitments are not fulfilled, or turned in another direction, thus creating a reputation as a partner, which can not normally agree. Most of the key reforms, which, if implemented, could improve the situation have not been conducted. And the reforms demanded by the IMF, based on an assessment of the situation with our own eyes. “These events were produced largely in their heads, but in ours. And if the co-operation will be resumed at the same conditions of our proposed reforms, I certainly think it is beneficial cooperation”, - says Roman Zhukovsky.

However, in the Verkhovna Rada virtually no legislation that would provide for reform of the social sphere as well as budget revenues. This means that 2010 will be formed on the old tax base, and all the old social services. And if we even begin to carry out reforms without a draft, without existing concepts, then at best it will only come in 2011.

problem banki1000ng stability

Based on the fact that key reforms in the financial sector is not prepared even to the authorities and there is little hope for a speedy resumption of cooperation with the IMF experts believe that today there is no reason for optimism about the financial sector in 2010. “Everything that happened in the banking system had hitherto not been completed. And the banking sector, and the National Bank in 2010, and I believe that in 2011, have a lot to endure. And we only have a desire to national regulators together with the banks - to survive this time, “- said Valery Geyets.

First of all, the financiers are concerned a significant increase in the proportion of problem loans in banks” portfolios. Estimates of bad loans in the banking system differ from the official 9%. “In that case, funds to support the need greater than it can be assumed, based on the balance of the budget and balance of the money and GDP. The question arises, how will behave in the external sector. Must look for opportunities for cooperation,” - noted scholar.

According to Vladimir Khlyvnyuk, for the banking system, a second wave of the crisis, the reason is - the problem assets. Six months ago, when the crisis of liquidity, they put on the backburner. Now, due to the fact that our legislation, as in Soviet times, is aimed at protecting the rights of borrowers, all Ukrainian banks have big problems with the return of loans. And in all segments - and with legal entities and individuals, and private entrepreneurs.

“Problem loans are divided into two components: a relatively large proportion of those who simply” throwing “, and, of course, that part of the business that got into a difficult financial situation”, - said Vladimir Hlyvniuk. Поэтому, несмотря на то, что у банковской системы сейчас достаточно свободных ресурсов, она объективно не хочет вкладывать деньги в экономику, не понимая, можно ли будет их оттуда вернуть.

Растет количество заемщиков, которые абсолютно сознательно идут на то, чтобы не возвращать долги, а власть ничего не делает, чтобы их к этому вынудить. “Даже если мы своими силами вернули кредитов, грубо говоря, на миллиард, то это миллионов 200 прямых убытков - только на процессе возврата денег. С учетом себестоимости ресурсов банка и того, что нужно возвращать проценты, - отмечает Владимир Хлывнюк. - Поэтому банкам крайне необходима помощь государства в вопросе возврата кредитов”.

Банкир говорит, что является участником очень многих походов банкиров в Министерство юстиции и другие инстанции. “Мы просим одно - хоть какую-то нормативную, законодательную базу, которая бы защитила нас как учреждения, которые давали взаймы. Но, к сожалению, законы никак не менялись. Даже в инструктивных, нормативных документах, касающихся действий исполнительной службы, нотариата, судей, какого-то отклика не нашлось, и, я так понимаю, что в ближайшее время и не найдется. Поэтому живем по принципу: каждый защищает себя сам. Может, через полгода мы к этому вернемся. Все предложения в Минюсте, в Национальном банке есть”, - говорит банкир.

Ð’ свою очередь, Сергей Яременко считает, что сложившаяся в банковской системе ситуация - объективна. За последние 40 лет все доходы финансового сектора в экономике мира выросли где-то в четыре раза и достигли 50% получаемых доходов во всей экономике. То есть получилось, что львиная доля доходов сконцентрировалась в финансовой сфере. Сейчас финансовые учреждения, несмотря на убытки и кризис в целом в экономике мира, все равно хотят получать доходы, которые получали в докризисное время. Появилось даже выражение: “Доходы - это достояние финансового сектора, а в случае убытков проблема должна решаться за счет дене1000г налогоплательщика”.

“Я утверждаю, что если, допустим, ВВП страны сократился на 30%, неизбежно, что и банковский сектор должен обрушиться на 30%. Другой вопрос - кто должен уйти? Предполагалось, что уйдут самые неустойчивые учреждения, но получилось так, что бессистемность помощи банкам вылилась в то, что помогали плохим и не помогали хорошим. И таким образом получился студень в виде тех банков, которые и не падают, но уже и не стоят. Они превратились в такие неустойчивые, уже не кредитные учреждения”, - сокрушается Сергей Яременко. Если основная функция банков - кредитование, то, по сути, они в этом году ее лишились: официальные данные свидетельствуют о том, что в целом по системе объемы кредитования уменьшились на 2,1%.

Из этого следует несколько выводов. Неправильная попытка стабилизации банков и абсолютно непрозрачная юридическая система, мешающая возврату кредитов, вылились в то, что деньги застряли именно в банковской системе, совершенно не доходя до реального сектора. Как и предсказывалось, экономика отомстила за это. Месть экономики привела к тому, что ухудшились активы. Ухудшились активы - увеличились резервы. Увеличились резервы - уменьшилась капитализация. Уменьшилась капитализация - снизилась возможность кредитования.

“Однако банковская система не соглашается с фиксацией убытков. И она, и ее материнские структуры, а это в основном иностранные компании, требуют: дайте нам доходы хотя бы на уровне тех, что в прошлые годы. Для этого “заряжается” около 20-30% по гривне в кредитовании. Всем известно, что при подобных ставках заемщик уже не может взять этот кредит и не берет, не имея возможности нормально функционировать и выпускать продукцию, - говорит Сергей Яременко. - Ð’ такой ситуации, объективно, любые кредитные вложения неизбежно влекут деньги на валютный рынок для импортирования товаров народного и промышленного потребления”.

Однако предложение валюты на рынке постоянно снижается, и будет снижаться в дальнейшем. Сейчас мировые инвесторы смотрят не в нашу сторону. Во всем мире инвестиционные институты пострадали. “Дефицитные бюджеты тех же Штатов, Испании, Греции и других стран требуют огромных денег - деньги будут уходить туда. И ни о каких инвестициях вы не мечтайте и не ждите. Значит, источник для удовлетворения собственных потребностей только внутри, и лежит он в продуктивной эмиссии гривни для развития кредитования”, - уверен Сергей Яременко.

По его мнению, в такой ситуации главной для правительства и Нацбанка становится следующая задача - вливание денег направить в реальный сектор экономики, чтобы гривня, попав туда, не выходила на валютный рынок. Хотя и при нынешних достаточно либеральных условиях валютного регулирования это тоже, как минимум отчасти, неизбежно. Поэтому неизбежно, по мнению Сергея Яременко, и повышение курса доллара.

Выводы

Во всех отношениях 2010 год будет тяжелым, периодически будет возникать напряжение вследствие не только нынешних, но и предстоящих выборов. Но перед правительством и Национальным банком стоит очень сложная общая задача - выработать принципиально новые решения с тем, чтобы создать дополнительные импульсы экономике, без которых экономика будут расти в лучшем случае лишь на 2-3% в год.

“Гарантирую, что при таком росте будут накапливаться проблемы в социальной сфере, сфере потребления. Речь идет о необходимости роста на уровне 5-6% как минимум - только в этом случае закладываются перспективы, что за определенный период накопленные проблемы можно разрешить, - говорит Валерий Геец. - Таким образом за текущий год необходимо одновременно заложить основы модернизации всех составляющих экономики. Наивно думать, что без формирования институтов развития, кe72оторых сегодня в Украине нет, без четкого видения того, для чего и каким именно образом эти институты использовать, мы эти проблемы решим. И для такого формирования у нас есть максимум год, иначе мы будем обречены пасти задних не только в Европе, но и среди развивающихся стран”.

“Однако сегодня пока что есть очень мало оснований для здорового оптимизма. И проблема здесь не только в отсутствии надлежащей координации между отдельными ветвями власти, но и в том, что на самом деле пока нечего координировать.

Ð’ нашей стране, к сожалению, до сих пор отсутствует системное видение того, какие реформы нам необходимо внедрять, какую макроэкономическую, кредитно-денежную и фискальную политику реализовывать. Нечего координировать без решения идейно-политических и политико-правовых проблем в современной Украине - и в этом состоит главный вызов на послевыборные месяцы”, - подытожил ученый.

Александр Дубинский, Юрий Сколотяный

Futures on the SP 500 moves this morning in the 1060 points
Last Friday, the euro /dollar fell on the American session to a mark 1.3583
In the presidential election in Costa Rica for the first time in the history of our country winning woman
Fuel will become cheaper by polgrivni
Kommersant: Ukraine gave positive attitude
President Note for

Revision gas contract with Ukraine in Russia cost 3.6 billion dollars ..

Forex - results of the day
The best market in today”s auction will be oil and gas sector
In the next sessions can rebound to the level of 1375 puntka on MICEX index

On Friday, the U.S. stock market dominated by mixed sentiment among market participants. Thus the unemployment rate in January was 9.7% vs. 10.0%. At the same time the number of new jobs outside agriculture in January -20 th vs. 15 th
As a result of the trading session U.S. stock indices closed in positive territory /Dow Jones 0.1%, S P500 0.29%, NASDAQ 0.73% /.
&1000lt;br /> From a technical point of view, on Friday the Dow Jones set a new minimum in the area of 9835.09 points in the formation of the first subvolny in the third wave. At the same time evening rebound is seen as the second subvolna in the third wave, which rose to a level in 38.2% of Fibonacci from the fall on February 2.

allowed higher rebound to 10080 and 10130 points. After forming the second subvolny starts building 3-st subvolny in the third wave.

Please remember that the Dow Jones has formed a 5 wave drop down in the 1-second pulse. Then, the Dow Jones corrected fall by 23.6% -38.2% of Fibonacci to 10310-10388 items within the second wave. We began the formation of third wave to 9220.41 points.

Today the level of resistance for the market participants will mark 10310 and 10170 points. Level of support will be 9835.09 points.

All fractal purchase is a mark of 10729.89 and 10314.61 points, but on sale at around 9786.11 and 9835.09 points.

On the hourly chart for the indicator MACD “bearish” situation, and the indicator Stochastic”s in purchasing.
On the daily chart of the Dow Jones index also remained divergent boundary formation in the area of 10250 points, but the point of confirming a fracture are at elevations 9430.31 and 9684 points, which is far from current levels. At the same time on the indicator MACD bearish situation. Indicator Stochastic”s are on sale.

C global wave perspective, the Dow Jones index continued /completed the formation of a global wave, which will correct all fall by 38.2% -50% of Fibonacci to 9440-10350 counts.

Please remember that Dow Jones index on June 11 formed the first stage of the rebound in the subvolny well. Later it was the development of wave b, which consisted of zigzag “abc”, where she was too short and has only reached the range between the levels of 23.6% -38.2% by Fibonacci.

January 19, 2010 to complete final run up to the objectives 9950-10118-10159-10351-10510-11245 items in the waves with a big wave of V. Also, is still a level at around 11,245 points, representing 61.8% on Fibonacci of the total incidence.
When building a global wave ended, then had to start building a global wave C up to 2012 to 2550-3500 points.

As an alternative and more complex version, which would delay the correction for years, then in this case the correction is allowed only jumping, but not below the 9283.77 points. If the Dow Jones index goes below this milestone, then finally come to the realization of the development of wave C.

From a technical point of view, on Friday the MICEX index opened below previous levels, after which the “bears” continued the formation of downward movement.

In the second half of the trading session, after the release of macroeconomic statistics, the bulls tried to seize the initiative and win back some losses. The volume of the trading session amounted to about 77 billion rubles.

On Friday, the MICEX index doubtful whether a milestone 1,386 points, as well as the fractal for sale 1363.03 points, which are responsible for the continuation of the formation of downward movement in the third wave. As a result, the MICEX index formed a new fractal on sale 1344.77 points, which in this case is the end of the first subvolny in the third wave. The subsequent rebound to 1,375 points is regarded as the second subvolna in the third wave, and allowed a second jump to 1387-1400 points, after which the decline resumed. It is also likely that the rebound in this wave1000will be small.

In addition, the daily chart the MICEX Index is trying to cling to the lower boundary of the diagonal triangle, which is the ultimate bottom-up formation. However, confirmation of exit-test of 1200 points.

From the wave point of view in terms of the base scenario, the MICEX index formed a 5-wavelength first burn down. February 3 MICEX index formed rebound in the second wave relative to the entire drop to 1427-1443 points, consisting of a double zigzag “wxy”.
We can go to the formation of the third wave with the objectives 1326-1250-1120 points, which is 100% -161.8% -261.8% of Fibonacci. First pulse was shortened, indicating that the 3-d or fifth wave will be stretched.

As optimists, they can still count on the fact that the MICEX index corrects the growth of 27 November 2009, but it “bears” can not be fixed below 1,326 points.

Today the level of resistance will mark 1,390 points, then 1445 points, then 1472 points. Level of support will be a mark in the 1326 and 1344 points.
In addition, the indicator Stochastic”s are on sale. Indicators MACD “bearish” situation.

On the daily chart indicator Stochastic”s are on sale. In addition, the daily chart the MICEX index moves in the diagonal triangle with the upper boundary in the vicinity of 1505 points, lower in the 1360 points. This formation is the ultimate bottom-up figure.

nearest day fractal for sale is located at around 1203.15 points, while daily fractal purchase is located at around 1491.32 points. Time to buy a fractal is a mark of 1491.32 and 1455.47 points, but on sale at the mark of 1344.77 points.

The long-wave point of view in early 2010, the MICEX index continued formation of a global wave of bounces in, which began in October and November 2008, when the index formed a double bottom in the vicinity of 500 points.

So in October 2008, we noted that the optimal range of big rebound was 1055-1230 points, representing 38.2% -50% of all Fibonacci from falling, which was performed in June 2009.

However, after reaching a maximum of 2 June and the beginning of the correction, the optimists kept mark 882 points. This line allows the formation of the fifth wave, and in an alternate complexity of the double zigzag correction to the triple “WXYXXZ” within the same waves B.
Since July 13, bulls have formed a U-turn, punctures line item 882, after which initially formed the rebound to fall, and then continued to develop a large rebound due to the euphoria in the markets and ways of increasing the money supply and budget deficits, the following procedure Krugman.

So, as stated, the MICEX index could form a triple zigzag “WXYXXZ” within the same waves B. Now is the formation of Z-wave with the objectives of 1436 and 1576 points.
Our alternative layout developed for a similar picture, with the exception of internal layout, which now is the formation of a wave with a big wave in under a simple zigzag “abc”.

In a wave of “bulls” have formed a wedge in the form of the first subvolny a corrective wave c, and then the second subvolnu, reaching 545 points, representing 76.4% of the length of the Fibonacci first subvolny.
June 2 MICEX index set a new high, and completed the formation of the third subvolny. July 13 ended with the formation of the fourth subvolnu, which reached 1070-963-882 points, representing 23.6% -38.2% -50% of the length of the Fibonacci third subvolny. The1000re is /was completed the formation of the fifth subvolny, which develops in a finite diagonal triangle, the upper limit is around 1485 points. Also, the objectives of a large corrective wave B can be a mark in 1472, 1536, 1623 points.

At the same time, given that the global wave of developing triple A, the wave can reach in and double peaks in the region of 1960-1970 points, but if they continue to increase the money supply in the economy, increasing budget deficit, which will by inflating the stock bubble, as it was with the dot-komami, real estate, oil.

Once complete the rebound in the wave, it will begin building a global wave of 450-500 points, and taking into account the panic 150-250 points, and the levels can be achieved by mid-2010 and the end of 2012 that will be accompanied by a drop of oil for 15-20 dollars, the Dow Jones to 2500-3500 items. Confirmation of the medium-term reversal - Break 1200 points.

In addition, the same RTS in semilogarithmic scale in January 2009, overcame a maximum of 1997, that at the global level, breaking the long-term trend, and suggests that the growth of correctional.

On Friday, those who did not want to close short positions, we are advised to keep them up to 1326 points. The purchase was not feasible because the ranges 1384-1387 and 1363-1366 items were taken in the first hour of a single candle.

Today, those who have no position, we recommend you to jump to reopen, preferably in the area of 1387-1390 points. Those who have short positions, then we hold up to 1326, then 1250-1260 points.

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Analyst Ratings

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Government has announced plans to invest 1 trillion Korean won or 867 million dollars over the next three years in software development.

“The plan includes the year 2012, we hope that it will ultimately lead to the creation of Korea”s development, similar to Apple iPhone and others. A few days ago, the law on the allocation of that amount was signed by President Lee Myung-bak,” - said representative of the Ministry, reports SyberSecurity.ru.

In an official communication from the Government states that the purpose of these investments - to bring South Korea into the world leader in software solutions.

Innovation will focus on industries such as software convergence, creation of embedded software solutions and a broad profile for end users. The Ministry of economy of the country say that a significant portion of public money to companies depart from the midst of small and medium businesses.

According to independent experts for today in South Korea rather well-developed high-tech solutions, but they are mostly concentrated in the hardware sector - production of plasma and LCD televisions, telecommunications and semiconductors.

At the same time, the software industry far behind. “This program is just aims to develop the software industry”, - said Deputy Minister of economy Rim Che Min. “These investments should help the country to compete in the global arena of software.

note that in software development in China, Microsoft is going to spend more than $ 1 billion

But Ukraine ranked 50 th in the world in the rating index of competitiveness in the sector of information technologies “in 2009.

“Who - the airline agent, the owner of ASB or anyone else - puts his electronic signature. And one of them is the author of the document?” And if there is no digital signature, it is impossible to verify the integrity of an electronic document, as provided for art. 12 Law № 851-IV. Kohl had not resolved this problem, the e-ticket does not get signs of an electronic document on the Law of Ukraine “, - he explains.

According to the expert, in order to remove these contradictions requires a system of electronic documents, electronic tickets which are formed as an electronic document in accordance with all requirements of the legislation, with the ability to verify the authenticity and integrity of such documents. Also, such a system can protect against possible abuses of financial documents, he explains.

addition, Shpak said that because of unresolved problems, mainly of regulatory nature, have difficulty in confirming the cost of acquisition of an electronic ticket as an electronic ticket is not included in the list of settlement or payment.

“In the case of the creation of primary documents on storage media enterprise is obliged at his own expense make copies on paper that can be used in accounting. Payment is reflected on the basis of payment documents (receipt, the receipt of Receipt, Bank Payment documents and so on). Thus, lighter and easier to write tickets on strict reporting forms. But where progress? “- said Shpak.

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“According to Vladimir Boiko, his company Easy Work has a database of several thousand students and may, within days to mobilize them to participate in demonstrations anywhere in Kiev, where they stand for in the right place a few hours and will signal to applaud, or On the contrary, to whistle, “- wrote the correspondent. Boiko, 1921, he studied at the web-designer in Kiev Polytechnic Institute. “We are ready to work with any political party. We do not care about ideology. But most students, she worries even less,” - said Boyko, who owns the company along with Matthew Dyadkovym.

Recruitment demonstrators in Ukraine is not prohibited by law, but it is a taboo topic, says author of the article: “The politicians deny that they enjoy a similar method, and many of those engaged in this business prefer harmless Russian phrase” draw a crowd. “But, According to the journalist, is a thriving industry. The fee is about $ 4 per hour per participant.

predicts Richard Boudreau, demand for the demonstrators in Ukraine will soon soar: both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych are preparing to gather the demonstrators in their support. “Both parties deny that they pay people for participating in rallies or are planning to resort to this. But some students say that they and many of their classmates received money from both camps, moving from meeting to meeting,” - the article says. Veterans of the “orange” protests condemn this business, arguing that it undermines the young Ukrainian democracy.

According to Boiko and Dyadkova, earlier in the Ukrainian market, hiring demonstrators dominated by the “pyramid” - a network of intermediaries, each of which recruited their friends or other intermediaries. Thus there is a lot of failure or theft, and participants receive no fee.

Company Boiko and Dyadkova, by contrast, has positioned itself as a reliable intermediary without intermediate structures, which carries out recruitment through a social network “in contact”. The site EasyWork.com.ua “club members” enter their password, view a listbc2of meetings and recorded online. The company recommends that they do not talk to journalists, that deception was discovered. “We do not trade votes and not get involved in the dark aspects of the policy,” - emphasizes Boyko. “As citizens, we hope that our business will wither away. If someone new will nominate a new idea, people will listen to it for free,” - adds Dyadkov.

Banks gives a lift to the business “carrot and stick”

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The secretariat said the implementation of the general fund budget for the cost of 99,6% in January

In voting for the best car of all cars involved, submitted under the shares, except for the category Best sports modification and the best hybrid car.

Winners action “Car of the Year in Ukraine 2010″ for nominations:

best small cars (A-B class) - Ford Fiesta

Best compact class passenger car (P-class) - Skoda Octavia A5

best car of the middle class (D-class) - Opel Insignia

best passenger car business-class (E-class) - Mercedes E-Klasse

best car luxury (F-class) - Porsche Panamera

Best crossover-SUV - Audi Q5

Best SUV-SUV - Audi Q7

Best coupe /convertible - BMW Z4

Best sporting changed - BMW X6 M

Best hybrid cars - Lexus RX 450h

best value for money - Kia Cerato

Best Design - Opel Insignia

absolute leader in sales among the registered in 2009 became the ZAZ Lanos “- 7561 car, according to the League.

In general, the action involved 56 models - these are the models, which premiered in Ukraine in 2009.

-Ukrainian action “Car of the Year in Ukraine 2010 - a national popularity rating of new cars that appeared on the market from November 1, 2008 to November 20, 2009. The best models of new cars in different categories define public (Ukrainian owners, customers and fans of cars) and a journalist jury (the competent representatives of the media, who are members of the Club Automobile Journalists of Ukraine).

Grand total votes determined by the amount of points received from the public and journalists of the jury. Value of their votes is 50% to 50%. The winner is the car-bidders, the sum of votes of the jury scored the most points. Rally held annually since 2000.

we have the best car by a vote of journalists and the public in 2009 became Skoda Superb. In the past year to participate in the rally was submitted record for all years of the number of cars participating - 80 models, which were distributed in 14 categories.

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According to the Minister of Economy Bohdan Danylyshyn, “the introduction of such labeling leads to unnecessary loss of time and funds of economic entities, which is associated with the re-labeling of products in commercial networks.” As the minister explained, the additional costs lead the production of new labels and laboratory studies, even those products where GMOs can not be, in principle, for example, salt. The Minister stressed that the marking “no GMO” does not meet international standards. Thus, the government, according to Danylyshyn, favors the introduction of labeling that only product that contains only registered in Ukraine genetically modified organisms and products. Recall that the author of the law which the Government intends to correct, was MP Andrew Pawlowski. Glad its success, he December 17 of last year, wrote on his blog: “My bill passed today 375 votes of people”s deputies. I think this is a victory of common sense. The consumer has the right to receive complete and accurate information about the product, which enables her conscious and responsible choice . Since established in all countries of the world and so is the requirement of Article 15 of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of Consumer Rights.

“I want to emphasize - said the MP - the current legislation does not allow to deceive the consumer. In particular, marked” without GMO “are allowed to apply only after verification in accordance with the law.” And before that, spending his law through parliamentary committees, Pawlowski wrote in his blog that the “mark” without GMO “in different variations is becoming popular worldwide. He even told me a terrible story about genetically modified corn, which proved toxic for some insect species In particular, bees. Because of it, they lost their orientation in space, which could destroy the industry of beekeeping. As a result of GM maize was almost universally banned in Europe.

But why the government decided to reverse? .. Apparently, one of the reasons - financial difficulties for the establishment of appropriate laboratories. They planned to allocate up to 2012 much as 5.7 million hryvnia. But there is another reason. Here”s how to open its essence in one of the comments posted on the Internet: “All right. The budget at the expense of law-abiding businessmen have already added. People had incurred expenditure. And those who are closer to the government and can influence it, in no hurry … and won.”

This version is indirectly confirmed the Day, “the head of government business associations” New Formation “Vyacheslav Kredisov. Noting that the marking “immediately raises the cost of the production process of production”, he supported the Government”s decision on its partial lifting, but did not deny that there is a “fact of punishment respectable businessman.”

Another aspect of this problem raised the bar association lawyer Volkov-Koziakov and partners “Lesya Kovtun. She said that despite the adoption of the law, “the system for detecting GMOs in the product was not introduced because the manufacturer is not obliged to send samples to laboratories with appropriate controls. The control system similar to that which exists in the European Union is also not established.” If all the same to someone today will prove that in the product labeling contained no more than 0,9% of GMO, it says the lawyer, a manufacturer would be liable only for violations of the rules of marking. And if you leave the law in its present form, the detection of GMOs will testify to that manufacturer has indicated false information and misled consumers. On this basis it is possible the court awarded damages to the consumer.

“Thus, - said Kovtun - revising the law, the government restricts the consumer”s rights and its ability to protect their health.”

She adds that in his time dealing with this issue and found that in our products is very much hidden GMOs. For example, wheat grown from seed, where there is a GMO, but officially the seeds with GMOs in the country is not imported. cows we have provide food with GMO … And who says this? But the consequences from the use of milk can be various …”.

“Formally, the government in amending the Act did not violate, - said the lawyer, - Ukrainians, as before, not in a position to verify the presence of GMOs. &la8et;/P>

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“Today I am announcing a project under which 30 billion of funds, banks returned to Wall Street, will be used to create a new fund lending to small businesses that will provide capital to local banks,” - he said the United States.

Funds to support small businesses will be taken from funds that are returned to the banks, received last year, financial support from the state. In 2008, the U.S. administration has adopted a 700-billion government program for the release of their troubled assets (TARP - Troubled Asset Relief Program).

Obama said that it was on the creditworthiness of small banks, primarily depends on small business.

“It is these small, local banks are working very closely with small businesses - they give them their first credit and watch the manner in which business is the best and worst of times” - he added.

Small business development, according to the president, will best contribute to the creation of new jobs - namely that Obama stated goal as a major domestic problem for his administration.

“Small business over the past 15 years, creating approximately 65% of new jobs. I think we need to help small businesses to open the door to expand operations and hire more staff,” - convinced U.S. President.

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According to the agency, in real terms, expenditure may even fall, because, according to estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), average inflation in 2010 is 14%. This situation would allow some easing of the situation with the “instantaneous” liquidity, but it is unlikely to restore confidence in the economic leadership of the country, because it means prolonging electoral period and, consequently, the possibility of delay in restoring relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Depending on how the decision will be implemented Verkhovna Rada to increase the minimum wage and, accordingly, pensions, “price” the implementation of the law “On state social standards and state social guarantees” can be from 2.5 to 7% GDP.

There is a risk of increasing pressure on the NBU by the community, acting for the monetization of fiscal deficits. The new President of the country during 2010 appointed new chairman of the institution; term exercise of the powers of the former heads of NBU expired in December 2009 Under the baseline scenario, Standard Poor “s, the law” On state social standards and state social guarantees “can not be executed, a failure of contractual obligations will remain substantially the volume until the resumptionb2bof the IMF program, expected this spring or early summer of 2010 This scenario provides a high probability of a gradual improvement in public finances - especially in the case of acceleration in GDP growth to 4%, as expected by Standard Poor ” s.

“I understand that our economic policies can lead to distrust, so we have to prove its effectiveness. We clearly show the effectiveness of this program,” - said the Greek prime minister, reports Reuters.

details of prospective legislative reforms Papandreou did not disclose. It also noted that at present Greece masters funds allocated to it the EU to reduce the budget deficit and stimulate the economy.

the eve of the Minister of Finance of Greece Georgios PAPACONSTANTINOU said that Greece is not going to raise income tax now stands at 40%, or change the scheme of taxation of bank deposits to get incremental revenue. However, before the Greek government announced increased taxes on fuel.

PAPACONSTANTINOU also promised that the amount of subsidy in the public sector will be increased only at the level of the official forecast for inflation.

recall that on 3 February the European Commission (EC) endorsed the plan of the Greek Government to reduce public debt and bring the country”s budget to the relative balance. However, by adopting the so-called Stability Programme of Greece, Brussels warned that Athens may need additional measures to reduce costs and, consequently, an increase of budget revenues, including through new taxes.

In addition, the EC noted that the budget statistics Greece still does not cause complete confidence. “Given the fact that Greece has failed to fulfill its responsibility to provide a reliable fiscal statistics, the commission will prescribe the Greek government to take all necessary steps to continue to ensure the provision of reliable information about the state of public finances”, - stated in the EC.

Greece intends to reduce the budget deficit below 3% of GDP in 2012. that would be consistent with the so-called the Maastricht criteria. January 15 the Greek government to the European Commission presented a program of stabilization of public finances for the period 2010-2013.

This plan provides for the gradual reduction of fiscal deficit - up 8.7% of GDP this year, up to 5,6% - in 2011., up to 2,8% - in 2012. and, finally, to 2% - in 2013. In 2009. this figure was 12,7% of GDP.

Currently, Greece is an obvious “weak link” in the euro area: its fiscal problems applying pressure on financial markets and fears of possible default of the country. EU officials have repeatedly tried to reassure markets, saying that Greece”s default is not threatened, but the tension around the financial situation of the country persists. The country is experiencing the worst economic crisis since joining the euro zone in 2001.