The technical analysis of currency pairs 05.02.2010

USD /JPY

Prices are consolidated in the 89.70 resistance level. If he will be overcome to continue growth, the primary purpose of which is likely to become a mark 90.00 and, further, 90.40. The probability of this outcome suggests that, at the 4-hour chart (Figure 1) trend indicator OsMA bought a rising trend. Up aims and SS (at the same time he left the band overselling). At the same time, RSI charted a U-turn in the opposite direction. Therefore, it is possible that this level will not be passed and prices, rebounding from him, will return to the course mark 89.40. On the hourly chart (Fig. 2) OsMA directed upward, thus confirming the assumption about the possibility of breaking a mark 89.70 and further growth. Oscillators, as in the 4H different direction.
In my opinion, the possibility of opening positions for the purchase with a close stop-loss should be considered only after the confirmation of a breakthrough price resistance level 89.70.

Support: 89.40, 89.00, 88.70, 88.40/30, 88.00, 87.40/30, 87.00, 86.40, 86.00/85.90, 85.20/00, 84.40/30, 84.00, 83.00.
Resistance: 89.70, 90.00, 90.40, 90.70, 91.00, 91.50/55, 92.00, 92.40, 92.70/85, 93.00/20, 93.50/60, 94.10/00, 94.60/50, 94.90/95.00, 95.30, 95.90/96.00, 96.30, 97.00, 98.00.

USD /CHF

prices after an unsuccessful attempt to overcome the 1.0760 mark, returned to a mark 1.0730. If it is passed, is expected to further decline to a level of 1.0700. About the beginning of rollback its reversal (both in the overbought zone) signaled oscillators at 4-hour chart (Figure 3). At the same time, the trend indicator OsMA steadily upwards. Therefore, it is possible resumption of growth in prices after the rollback. On the hourly chart (Figure 4) OsMA and RSI acquired a downward direction. All this confirms the supposition about the possibility of breaking a mark 1.0730, and the continuation of the declining phase of motion.
In my opinion, is to wait for clarification of the situation, before making any trading decisions. With the resumption of growth and confirming the presence of signals on the hourly chart to consider the possibility of opening positions on the purchase after the confirmation of a breakthrough level of 1.0760.

Support: 1.0730, 1.0700, 1.0650, 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500/1.0490, 1.0445, 1.0400/1.0390, 1.0360/50, 1.0320/00, 1.0280, 1.0250/40, 1.0200, 1.0175, 1.0140/30, 1.0100, 1.0070, 1.0035, 1.0000, 0.9975.
Resistance: 1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0850/60, 1.0900, 1.0935, 1.1000/10, 1.1050/60, 1.1100/20, 1.1150, 1.1200/15, 1.1270, 1.1320. Read More »

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Review of the precious metals market for 04.02.10

Dynamics On Thursday, February 4 quotes for gold and silver closed with a large decrease in value against the strengthening U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market, FOREX, and also because of the negative dynamics of neighboring markets and stock exchanges, and technical reasons.

According to the results of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), quotes gold futures fell to 49.00 to 1063.00 dollars per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures fell 97 cents to 15.35 dollars per ounce.

Causes
On Thursday, 4 February futures on precious metals have completed trades with a decrease in the price of the following factors: 1 - strengthening of the dollar in the FOREX market amid falling risk appetite after economic makrostatistiki and news (as reported by the Ministry of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose by 8000 to 480 000), 2 - Economic News - news about the increasing concerns regarding the fact that Greece, Portugal and Spain could face difficulties when trying to regain control of their budgets, thereby jeopardizing the fragile economic recovery the euro zone, only increased the pressure on gold, 3 - negative dynamics of stock exchanges, where the major U.S. stock indexes closed in negative zone against the disappointing financial statements of some companies and economic news (Dow Jones industrial average - 10002.18 (-268.37 , or -2.61%), Nasdaq Composite - 2125.43 (-65.48, or -2.99%), SP 500 - 1063.11 (-34.17, or -3.11%)), 4 - for technical reasons - Gold futures overcame a strong technical resistance in the area 1100.00 U.S. $ per troy ounce, which prompted investors to take profit on many fronts, 5 - reduction in adjacent markets, namely the fall in prices on the oil market. Read More »

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The meltdown in global stock markets intensified amid rising investor concern with the problems of sovereign debt of European countries

The meltdown in global stock markets intensified amid rising investor concern with the problems of sovereign debt of European countries, as well as the weak statistics on a weekly appeals for Dole in the U.S.. Capital leaves the risky assets, as evidenced by a record outflow of funds from hedzhfondov. After yesterday”s fall to 2,5% today, the MICEX index rollback to local minima of this year at the § 1370, where he found strong support. The reason for the recovery of the stock indices could be statistics on the U.S. labor market, which, according to analysts, must show employment growth in the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, after a short respite, a decline of stock markets could resume, the reason why will be forthcoming deployment of U.S. Treasury securities next week, which with the growing uncertainty in the markets may divert a large part of speculative capital, thereby depriving the capital markets support.

meltdown in stock markets in Europe, caused by the overestimation of risk in sovereign debt of Greece, followed by Portugal and Spain, the predetermined negative opening of trading in the U.S.. “European theme, highlighted the number of events: it”s hard pressure from the European Commission against Greece, and weak demand in the Portuguese Treasury bonds during the last auction, and the expansion of the forecast budget deficit of Spain in the coming years. Furthermore, in an accompanying statement, the ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet, the market saw no confidence in economic recovery: the head of the ECB noted considerable uncertainty about the future economy of the Eurozone. Read More »

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Domestic money supply decreased

in Ukraine in January 2010, money supply decreased by 1.5% - to 480.2 UAH billion., monetary base - by 2,8%, to 189.4 bln.

says the report, released at the site of the National Bank of Ukraine.

been reported that total deposits in January of this year decreased by 0,9% - to 324,7 billion UAH., while retail deposits rose by 0,3%, balance of credit inflow decreased by 2% - to 703.5 UAH billion.

The National Bank noted that the dynamics of the impact the decision to start liquidation Ltd. Ukrprombank, the volume of loans and deposits which have ceased to be considered in the overall performance of the banking system.

average rate of national currency loans decreased from 19,6% in December 2009 to 17,4% in January 2010. Weighted average cost of deposits during this period decreased from 14% to 12,4%.

the interbank loan market weighted average rate decreased from 7% in December 2009 (including on overnight loans - 3,3%) to 6,2% (on overnight loans - 2,7%) in January 2010 .

According to NBU, in January of this year decrease in cash held outside banks to 2,5% - to 153.1 UAH billion. that is a traditional phenomenon for the first month of the year. Read More »

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The Asian indexes fall on Friday, the fastest pace in 10 weeks

Stock Indices Asia-Pacific region fell on Friday, the fastest pace in 10 weeks after an unexpected increase in new applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S..

writes The Wall Street Journal, lower commodity prices, the strengthening of the yen and the problem of budgets and national debt in the euro zone also do not add optimism to investors.

Composite Stock Index MSCI Asia Pacific Asia Pacific collapsed on 2,4% - to 114.79 points.

Japanese index Nikkei 225 lost 2.5%, Hong Kong”s Hang Seng - 2,9%, Australia SP /ASX 200 - 2,3%.

Number of Americans, first applied for unemployment benefits, unexpectedly rose last week to 480 thousand to 472 thousand revised the previous week. At the same time analysts expected reduction in the number of hits on 15 thousand with the previously announced level of before last week - up to 455 thousand number of continuing to receive unemployment benefits as Americans have not changed over the previous week ending 24 January, and amounted to 4.602 million people, which is the minimum level for last year.

“The concern is caused by world events, issues government debt in Greece, Spain and Portugal have a negative impact on investor sentiment,” - said one of the directors of Macquarie Private Wealth Marcus Droga.

“Pessimists are celebrating victory,” - the head offices of financial market analysis LGT Capital Roger Grobli. Read More »

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If today by statistical data from the U.S. will be better than fear, then the market of Russia will have a chance to win back drop

The Russian market continues to fall. Reducing the RTS index was 4.58%, he went below the psychologically important mark of 1400 points. MICEX fell back to 3,512% to 1346.85 points. Although the fall is hard to call, Russian indices only approached the level at which concluded last year. Futures price for Brent crude on London Stock Exchange IPE was $ 71.64 per barrel. Futures on U.S. indices also increased the reduction in the day, and while the sources of optimism for the Russian market there.

The planned reduction of about 4%, is observed across the spectrum of “blue chips”. Volumes, which are selling quite well, so you can say that the players are systematically selling all the papers.

I think it is worth noting an important point. This week has been declared information about the movement of funds investing in emerging markets, where there is significant enough to withdraw money from these markets, total 1 billion 600 million dollars.

Funds investing directly in Russia, lost a little bit, but Russia “does” due to the withdrawal of large funds in their share of the country is not very large, but it is.

Today, late afternoon in the U.S. are data on unemployment, so they are the ones to define further the dynamics of the Russian market. If the figures will be worse than the fear, it is obvious that our indexes go down. If this will be better, then the market of Russia will have a chance to win back the fall.

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Recommendations on the stock market: Lukoil, Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Gazprom, Mosenergo, Surgutneftegaz, Sberbank “

&a1000mp;lt;h3> Lukoil


trend Short Medium Long-Term
neutral neutral neutral
The level of support 1580 - 1610 1540 - 1570 1410 - 1500
level of resistance 1720 - 1750 1750 - 1810 1870 - 1960
Recommendations No position.
Notes ;


Norilsk Nickel


trend Short Medium Long-Term
neutral neutral improvement
The level of support 4320 - 4440 4160 - 4320 3700 - 3860
level of resistance 4830 - 4900 5020 - 5220 5570 - 5920
Recommendations No position.
Notes ;


Rostelecom


trend Short Medium Long-Term
neutral lowering neutral
The level of support 141.00 - 145.30 135.60 - 141.00 120.20 - 131.00
level of resistance 158.70 - 161.10 168.40 - 171.80 195.00 - 210.00
Recommendations Zoom brake application to market prices.
Notes ;


Gazprom


trend Short Medium Long-Term
neutral neutral improvement
The level of support 181.00 - 183.80 170.80 - 174.00 122.00 - 145.00
level of resistance 191.40 - 196.20 198.00 - 205.50 216.00 - 225.00
Recommendations No position.
Notes ;


Mosenergo


trend Short Medium Long-Term
lowering neutral improvement
The level of support 3.340 - 3.420 3.220 - 3.330 2.330 - 2.560
level of resistance 3.610 - 3.740 3.970 - 4.160 4.270 - 4.650
Recommendations No position.
Notes ;


Surgutneftegaz


trend Short Medium Long-Term
lowering neutral1000 neutral
The level of support 24.30 - 24.70 23.30 - 24.30 22.10 - 23.40
level of resistance 26.20 - 26.50 27.50 - 28.20 30.00 - 32.10
Recommendations No position.
Notes ;


Savings Bank


trend Short Medium Long-Term
lowering neutral improvement
The level of support 81.70 - 83.20 77.30 - 81.50 63.90 - 73.00
level of resistance 87.40 - 90.00 93.20 - 95.70 98.90 - 109.70
Recommendations No position.
Notes ; ; ;

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Conference on-line on the subject: “travel market: stagnation or growth?”

Ladies and gentlemen!

Today at 13:00 Moscow time on our site will begin conference: “travel market: stagnation or growth?” .

A year ago, forecasts for the tourism market was dramatic: on the background of plummeting sales in January-February 2009, some experts anticipated reduction in demand for 50% of its results. The results were not so bad - the fall, according to market participants, was about 20%, but since most in demand were more cheap travel deals, in value terms, the loss amounted to about 25%.

How companies respond to new realities and demand reduction? Due to what have preferred to cut spending? What are the outcomes of the New Year period, and projections for the coming summer season? How has the structure of demand in any segment and directed the greatesf35t loss? How popular was the domestic tourism in Russia and how to develop this area? Tour operators, faced with reduced depth of sales, try using rebates to switch customers to the “last minute tours for early booking. Read More »

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Potential reduction of U.S. stock market today may be about 10%

correction grows

Following the publication of negative corporate reports and unimportant data on labor - on Thursday in the securities market U.S. stocks fell in price for large volumes. Investors sold off its assets and leading indices closed on the bidding results in a minus on 2.5-3%. Closure of the European sites have passed in the same vein. Asian markets also prevail negative sentiment. A quotation of oil “caved” to the 3-mesyanomu minimum in the vicinity of $ 72 per barrel. (Brent).

So today morning trading on the Russian stock market will start with the negative “Gap” of the order of 2%. On the MICEX index “bears” had at the opening can test the level of support 1365p. and if during the day they will be able to break through - “bulls” can be resisted only in the area of marks 1327p. and 1306p.

Overall, the potential of reducing the U.S. stock market today may be around 10% (up to 9100p level. on DJIA). The immediate aim of growth for the pair usdrub - 31.50.

Today 14.00msk Exposure data industry. production in Germany (December) and in 16.30msk - data on labor in the States (January), which may have a significant influence on the course of bidding.

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Why before the election is always getting more expensive products

Domestic Theme higher prices for food products suitable for populism and speculation …

While politicians in the election campaign for the electorate to impose his own recipes to combat prices and threatening to punish speculators, we decided to look into the causes of these pre-election increase in the cost of food.

Domestic Theme higher prices for food products suitable for populism and speculation, since they account for about 50% in the consumption basket of the Ukrainians. In fact, this is an excellent illustration of the poverty of our people, consumer sentiment is easy to manipulate. For comparison: in Poland products occupy about 30% of the consumer basket, while in Germany the cost of food for own preparation make up only 10% of

economic causes of rising prices “do not notice”

Deja Vu with a sharp increase in prices for different types of so-called social food products were registered in the domestic market in virtually all of the time of election campaigns the 2000″s (2004, 2006, 2007 and 2009-2010).

Price monitoring conducted by the State Inspectorate for Control over prices, illustrates the dynamics of product development. Past Presidential Elections (2004) characterized by a price crisis in the meat market, while beef has increased in price by 32%. The parliamentary elections in 2006 has risen in price bread - 20-22% higher and the first grade. During the early parliamentary election in 2007 “took off” prices for sunflower oil (59%), milk (49%), beef (20%) and “social” bread (16-18%). In 2009, became more expensive dairy products (22%) and sugar (99%), followed in January 2010, they added the price is 9,5% and 26% respectively. Independent experts, in contrast to the Ministry of Economy, convinced of the absence of any economic preconditions for the rise in price, known as very concrete reasons for this trend.

Political uncertainty, as the economist of the International Centre for Policy Studies, Alexander Acorn, only increases the rate of price growth. Regarding the key reasons, one of them - an increase of social payments, which the authorities carried out since 2004. By the way, the meat crisis that year was largely triggered by just the appearance of additional money from consumers.

“Generous allowances (increase of pensions, scholarships, minimum wages) that are used to of encouraging poor people, give the effect to be counterproductive: a greater return, these people immediately spend the money to buy food. A sharp rise in demand with a steady supply invariably entails an increase in prices “, - explains a senior analyst at investment firm Phoenix Capital Andrew Nesteruk.

experts allocate another specific cause for the growth in food prices in 2006-2007: this period was marked surge in foreign investment and debt capital to Ukraine from abroad. “The fixed exchange rate of hryvnia currency and buy the National Bank of investors have increased the annual hryvnia mass inside the country by 20-30%. As the authorities make no effort to its withdrawal (eg through the production and sale of OGVZ),” extra “money stimulated the rise in food prices” - reminds Andrew Nesteruk.

other objective reason - the world prices for raw materials. Such seasonality coincides with the electoral campaigns in Ukraine. Traditionally, prices for crops are changed after the new harvest: in the late summer - early fall (at the same time held the race 2004, 2007 and 2009). The increase in world prices in 2007 for sunflower oil led to its rise in price by 40-60% in Ukraine.

“Then the market for raw resources, joined venture capital, which is why prices of sunflower reached nearly $ 1000 /t, and oil - $ 2000 /t. A year later the price of sunflower oil have fallen to $ 600-700 /t, - the general director of association “Ukroliya Stepan Kapshuk. Given that 80% of sunflower oil is exported abroad, the Ukrainian market has developed in the wake of global trends.

Because of the low grain yield at the same time became more expensive flour and bread. A similar situation exists with sugar. According to Chairman of the Board Nasua “Ukrsahar” Nicolae Platon, problems with the prices of sugar and seasonal variations traditionally occur before the new production season.
The current election campaign, accompanied by a rise in price of products are objective reasons, and speculative factors. For e1000xample, if you take the same sugar, here, first, world prices have reached a maximum of thirty (in Europe - 1300 Euros /t, in Russia - $ 1200 /t). And secondly, because of the reduction of sugar beet in Ukraine, a deficit of its own beet sugar, which, incidentally, predicted earlier. In addition, weekends and holidays, extending nearly half of January, plus bad weather led to the fact that inventories of sugar in the small towns just ended. Read More »

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