Morning von negative for Russian stocks is expected to continue reducing the quotations at the opening of trading

On Thursday the Russian market observed negative dynamics against a background of falling oil prices. The fall of quotations was observed in almost all liquid securities. Russian stock indexes fell more than 2%: MICEX (-2,5%), RTS (-3,0%).

leaders on Thursday began the fall campaign fixed operators TsetnrTelekoma (-6,7%) and VolgaTelekoma (-4.7%), whose shares have increased significantly in the beginning of the week. Top gainers were shares of Polymetal (1,8%), which grew despite the decline in gold prices. Growth also demonstrated paper OGK-5 (0,8%). Oil stocks closed in the negative range of pressure from below the price of oil: Tatneft (-3.5%), Gazpromneft (-3,2%), Gazprom (-3,2%). Significant declines showed Transneft shares (-3,9%), against the background of news about the accident on the pipeline in the Amur region. Among banking shares Paper Sberbank (-3.8%) fell within the market. Shares VTB (-0,3%) showed a more moderate decline1000. Shares of steel companies and coal declined in the market trends: NLMK (-3,8%), Severstal (-4,1%), Belon (-3,6%), Mechel (-2,3%).

The U.S. stock markets on Thursday continued negative dynamics, major stock indexes declined on average by 3%. S P500 index closed lower by 3,1%. It is better to market the shares of technology companies, worse than the market - paper commodity and financial companies. The negative economic situation spread to Asian markets, where the average reduction of key indices in the morning is more than 2%. On commodity markets, Brent futures fell and traded near $ 72 a barrel, the price of basic metals groups show mixed dynamics.

According to our estimates, today morning background negative for Russian stocks, we expect to continue to reduce Russian stocks at the opening of tenders. From the vital statistics in the afternoon is expected to block the publication of statistics on the state of the labor market in the U.S..


More information on these and other analysts” comments Finam you can see in the section “Investments”

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Figures for the U.S. labor market may revive the market, if you still will be good

Hope for recovery of the labor market in the U.S., fueled by the market all week, evaporated in an instant, and how the markets reacted violently even at the monthly and weekly figures on employment, spoke about how all set to correction, as it is natural and needed. Concerns about the huge debt of some European countries “hang” over the market for a long time, different views, and bursts of information on this topic excite the market that month, this is the cause of global, fundamental and is one of the reasons for the correction since the beginning of the year and1000creates a general negative background. The head of the ECB yesterday in his speech on the results of the meeting said the uncertainty about the prospects for the euro area, budgetary problems of Greece, Portugal and Spain, which threatens the stability of the entire EU.

Following the presentation by Jean-Claude Trichet, the euro fell to a mark of $ 1,371, CDS Portugal has soared to 227. n. (145 bp from the beginning of the year), and Spain up to 170 bp Greek five-year CDS has risen by 28 bps reached 417 bp Escape from risk reduction has affected the yield 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds for 1 day at 10 bp up to 3,6%.

In the United States poured oil on the fire figures for the number of requests for unemployment insurance in the United States last week, which were above expectations: 480 thousand instead of 455 thousand Recall that the market is hoping for growth in the number of jobs in the U.S. in January that can show the current data, the first positive value of more than 2 years, and now on the market, few expected such statistics.

Index Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on the results of the auctions on 2,61%, SP 500 - on 3,11%, Nasdaq Comp. - On 2,99%. Trades in Asia on Friday morning held in the negative zone, on average, losing 2.5%.

Oil prices on Thursday have fallen by 5% to above $ 73 a barrel (mark WTI), the growth of the dollar and falling commodity prices made the paper the mining and energy companies outsiders of the day.

Russia market will continue to decline in early trading on Friday, the ruble will lose against the dollar and against the currency basket. Figures for the U.S. labor market may revive the market, if you still will be good, however, the problems of the euro area there is no solution - this means the continuation of the correction and a strong dollar.

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External background is negative for the market of Russia, America had closed certain decline, Asia traded mostly down

Thursday ended lower confident quotations major domestic issuers. The MICEX index fell 2.46%. Trading activity fell slightly compared with the maximum protection.

In the first half of the day MICEX under the influence of moderate sales area of 1,420 items tested, which ranged up to 16.30 Moscow time. The negative data on the U.S. economy led to a resumption of decline, during which the MICEX Index reached support at 1390-1400 points.
U.S. stock indices closed Thursday in a deep negative. Sales due to weak data on the labor market (projected decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits up to 455 thousand in fact increased to 480 thousand), disappointing corporate accounts (MasterCard, Kellogg, Monster Worldwide), as well as concerns about the growth of budget deficits some euro zone countries (Greece, Portugal, Spain).

At the auctions in Asia is dominated by negative sentiment. But a collapse is not observed. It may be noted that the markets traded in the region is stronger than would be expected based on the outcome of trades in the United States.

Futures Brent oil moves this morning at around $ 72. Main support is at $ 70-71, which formed a local “double bottom”, and is the lower limit of the range of $ 70-75-80. Output below $ 70, is likely to entail achieving the next level of $ 65, then possibly $ 60.

Futures on the SP 500 during the U.S. trading session has tested supp1000ort at 1,060 points. Currently, futures rebound to 1065 points. We give preference to sales. The first attempt to reduce the expected resumption from 1070 points, then from 1080.
At the same time, the return above 1080 points will give a strong signal to buy, consider allowing access to 1060 as a false breakdown. Exit above 1070-1080 and then return below 1070 is considered as a signal to sell.

Friday on Russia”s stock market expected to begin with a gap down in the course of which may be tested support at 1,370 points.

Speed and power reduction on Thursday gives grounds to speak about the start of the correction with the first goal in the 1200 points on the MICEX. In this case, is a logical game for a fall even from current levels.

However, the first decline to 1370 points on MICEX may want to use for purchases for speculative purposes in the calculation to rebound, the formation of local “double bottom” and the refinement of the range of 1370-1400 points. Break 1365-1370 points, followed by a return above this level should also be used for purchases.

to rebound recommend opening up “short” positions. Output below 1365-1370 points is likely to lead to achieving the next level of support at 1340, 1300.
Futures on RTS Index closed the evening session in the region of 142 000 points, breaking the previous local minimum of 143 000 points. The next target is located on the sales of 140 000, then 135 000. Possible rebound goal for today - 143 000-145 000.

The main influence on the course of trading on Friday, likely to have comprehensive data on the labor market in the U.S. in January. The threat to “bear” is in reaction to the negative data on applications for unemployment benefits on Thursday. Perhaps the potential weakness of the Friday data has already been played yesterday.

External Von negative. America to close certain decline, oil and gas sector is moderately worse than the market, the financial sector worse than the market. Asia traded mostly down.

The final recommendations:
Investors - cut position “;
speculators - “use bounces up to play in the fall, may purchase items from 1365-1370 on MICEX”.

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Mongolia changed its mind to sell the largest coal deposit

Mongolia is no longer plans to sell 49 percent of the project to develop a coal deposit Tavan Tolgoi, the largest in the country. It is reported by Reuters, Siberian reference to unnamed sources. Government of Mongolia has not commented on this information.

According to the agency, the Mongolian side is interrupted consultation with banks JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank, who were brought to the organization of the tender for Tavan Tolgoi. Representatives of financial institutions declined to comment on the situation.

Reuters notes that instead of selling shares in Tavan Tolgoi in Mongolia government wants to conclude a contract with a major mining companies to develop fields. This gornodobytchikam will not be granted a large share of the project.

reserves Tavan Tolgoi deposits are estimated at 6.5 billion tons of coal. Read More »

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USA: Bears went on the offensive

On Thursday, 4 February, the American stock market in the first half of the trading session shows a deep negative dynamics. Information space today is awash with negativity - from Europe are disquieting rumors about the financial problems of Spain, Portugal and Greece. In the United States breathes the spirit of unemployment - weekly data on the number of primary applications from the unemployed to receive benefits not brought anything good, had risen by 10 thousand to 480 thousand, contrary to expectations. The market, as always, responsive to labor market information, because unemployment is one of the strongest inhibitory factors for economic recovery.

By 20:10 Moscow time the index broad-market Standard Poor”s 500 is trading with a decrease to 2.27% on a mark to 1,072.39 points, the light blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.94% to 10,071.64 points in the and the index of high-tech Nasdaq Composite traded in the red at 2.14% on a mark to 2,144.12 points.

The dollar index rises by 0.64% precious metals are traded on the highest minus, gold and platinum for more than 3%, silver lost over 5%. In the composition of the index of blue chips traded in positive territory a single Cisco Systems.

cosmetics company Avon Products lost 5,4%. Quarterly profit rose Avon in the fourth quarter by 16% due to increased demand in the markets of Latin America and Europe. Read More »

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Better the market today, VTB, on the background information on the possible buying by the bank of its securities from the market

Bear woke up

drop on world platforms, the U.S., Europe, emerging markets, and oil prices hit today on the Russian market. Growth of dollar against the problems in Europe and, accordingly, falling oil prices leads to a decrease in Russian securities. Data on U.S. unemployment is also negative. Number of primary applications for unemployment benefits last week increased from 470 thousand to 480 thousand, is expected to decline to 460 thousand

Other statistical figures were better than expectations. Factory orders in December, 1%, expected 0.5%, previous change 0.6%, labor productivity in the 4 th quarter, increased by 6,2%, is expected to grow by 6%, the previous value of 8.1%. Support to the market also had a good reporting Deutsche Bank and Cisco.

Bank of England left the discount rate at 0.5%., the ECB at 1%.

increase in consumer prices in Russia in January of this year amounted to 1,6%. In January of 2009. Inflation in Russia stood at 2.4%. As a result, we expect inflation in the range 6-7%. Accordingly, the Bank Russia still has the potential to reduce rates.

new president of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov began his candidacy today unanimously endorsed the State Council of the Republic. With a high probability of a new president of the republic will continue the economic and political line of the former president, and therefore nothing to fear from the growth of political and investment risks. Effect on Tatneft neutral.
yesterday”s conference call Rosneft no surprises, however, the market is1000too overestimated the risk zeroing cancel export duties. Accordingly, as soon as these securities will be better than the market.

Better market today, VTB, on the background information on the possible buying by the bank of its securities from the market. Treasury securities will be used for bonuses to management.
We believe that the market came to bear, and not a little fur. Long position in the Russian equity is unlikely that any threat.

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Analysis - Results of the day

Energy, World Stock Market, Currency Forecast …

Today in the results:

  • Energy and Energy

    price of oil is slightly reduced 04 February in electronic trading on NYMEX in Asia. Data on stocks that were released the day before, could not hold on the market “in the black.”

    EIA: Oil reserves in the U.S. rose last week.

    Coal production in India increased by 7,8%.

    U.S. believe that Kazakhstan is not involved in the deal to supply uranium to Iran … read

  • global stock market

    stock trades in the U.S. on Feb. 3, 2010 resulted in the decrease of the leading indexes. Investors disappointing corporate reports, as well as a statement of U.S. President Barack Obama”s intention to complete the banking reforms and reforms in health care. Bidders prefer a ca1000utious strategy in anticipation of new steps the government.

    stock trading in Europe, 03-second decrease in leading indexes were closed amid fears over the economic welfare of individual countries in the Eurozone.

    Index Tokyo Stock Exchange Nikkei fell 04 th at 48.35 points (-0.46%) and closed at 10355.98.

    Yield 10-year Japanese government bonds makes 1.375 (has grown over the previous closing on 0.020). Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng fell 346.16 points (-1.67%) and is located at 20375.92.

    Stock Indices Asia-Pacific region have completed trades lower on Thursday due to fears that economic recovery in the region may slow down: retail sales unexpectedly declined in Australia, and the unemployment rate in New Zealand surged to a peak of more than 10 years.

    As a result of trades 03 февраля RTS index to closing the previous session, rose by 0.35 points (0.02%) and amounted to 1,507.11 points.
    Trade turnover in the stock market amounted RTS Standard 9989.721 mln. That is about average for the last month.

    results of the trading day the Russians: jump in the coup when walking on a minefield.

    Following yesterday”s trading on the MICEX index dropped 5.55 points (0.39%) to close the previous session and reached 1431.08. Bidding took place by active c above average.

    price index of shares on the PFTS Stock Exchange trading on Wednesday, 03 February, rose by 3.93 points or 0.61% to 644.21 points. Read More »

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Expensive gas reduces the share of Gazprom in the global market

Information Group (part of the investment holding company “Finam”) held a conference on global gas market: time for change. ” Its members believe that the drop in gas production in Russia due to insufficient flexible pricing policy, Gazprom, which is losing foreign markets to foreign competitors. The main risk to the domestic gas industry related to the slow pace of implementation of large projects, as well as with their high capital intensity.

reduction of gas production in Russia in 2009 analysts attributed to the policy of the main manufacturer - Gazprom. “According to the gas main problem - inflexible pricing policy of” Gazprom “on the background of the sharp decline in demand, especially in the beginning of the year. Is another matter that the fault of” Gazprom “in this inflexibility, only partial”, - said Head of Analytical Research IG UNIVER Capital Dmitry Alexandrov. This view is supported Head of Research Fund of the National Energy Security Pasechnik, Alexander: “In the EU, the presence of Gazprom”s tangible - it controls a quarter of the market. However, as shown by the last economic crisis, its rigid pricing policy - vulnerability. In particular, the Norwegian Statoil at the peak of the global crisis has reduced the share of Gazprom in the euro area up to 16%. The Norwegians were able to offer lower prices due to “soft” contracts. However, now rosmonopoliya regained its rightful quarter.

Analyst IFD Kapital “Vitaly Kryukov identified several problems that have affected the Russian gas sector last year:” The accelerated pace of production decline of Gazprom associated with reduced consumption and falling supplies in the European market because of rigid price policy of “Gazprom”. Gas prices in the spot market last year were much lower than the prices of Gazprom, which has led to some shift in demand towards the spot purchases. In addition, to increase deliveries of LNG to Europe at more competitive prices. Read More »

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If the MICEX index pierce support 1,420 points, “defensive” stocks will not

MICEX can not talk

By 13.30 MICEX index fell by 0,6% (1422). Yesterday I stared at this code and noticed that the “bull” market fizzles. What good graphics MICEX, that he can not say: “On the one hand, increase, and with another - the bottom”, so it can be a long time to watch. Today the index is ill, because he had received a double negative in the form of declining oil futures and declining prices of shares in European markets (before the speech of the ECB) and still .. silent as Mutsy Scaevola.

special demand for the shares I do not see: the morning demand for Severstal almost dried up (0.3%) because if the MICEX index pierce support 1,420 points, defensive stocks will not, and will be “Riser dynamics” of all shares until it “ustakanivanie” MICEX index at 1360-1370 points. In the metallurgical sector, shares of Severstal”s our favorite, but at the moment it has technical problems as Bears” divergence on the daily charts on all indicators: MACD, MASD - histogram, MFI, RSI. Now comes the formation of the “second peak”, but take a few days, and bulls can try to imagine something like a flight in a fighter plane with 5 generations of dynamic congestion 12 units (with a dive). There is a chance … Now the best position in the market - waiting. The likelihood that neftebyki not be able to once again ride upward trend in the chart of oil, and the DJIA index will not be able to break the resistance of 1,350 points, is great.

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The U.S. currency by the end of the trading day environment to recover previously lost ground against major competitors in the forex

The U.S. currency by the end of the trading day environment to recover previously lost ground against major competitors in the forex. The publication of positive macroeconomic data in the United States once again stepped up talk that the Fed will raise short-term interest rates sooner than the other partners in Western Europe and Japan. According to the report companies Automatic Data Processing and Macroeconomic Advisers, in January, the private sector of the U.S. economy has lost “only” 22 thousand jobs - minimal losses for the past 2 years. He grew up in the past month another significant indicator - Manufacturing PMI in the nonproductive sphere. In particular, according to the Institute of Supply Management USA, in January PMI for the services sector reached 50,5 points against 49,8 in December.

euro during the North American session, once again dropped below the $ 1.39 Mark etki. Despite the fact that the European Commission on Wednesday approved a plan to exit from the Greek fiscal “pits”, many market participants remain skeptical about the prospects for implementation voiced measures. In particular, according to published a plan, Greece, whose budget deficit in 2009 reached almost 13% of GDP, going over the next three years to reduce the imbalance of the Treasury to 3% of GDP. To do this, the Government plans to increase the fiscal burden on the economy (by 2012 to 45,4%), as well as reduce costs, which now exceeds 50% of GDP. Read More »

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