Today, we look forward to the opening of trading around previous closing levels on the Russian stock markets.
On Friday, the U.S. stock market dominated by mixed sentiment among market participants. Thus the unemployment rate in January was 9.7% vs. 10.0%. At the same time the number of new jobs outside agriculture in January -20 th vs. 15 th
As a result of the trading session U.S. stock indices closed in positive territory /Dow Jones 0.1%, S P500 0.29%, NASDAQ 0.73% /.
&1000lt;br /> From a technical point of view, on Friday the Dow Jones set a new minimum in the area of 9835.09 points in the formation of the first subvolny in the third wave. At the same time evening rebound is seen as the second subvolna in the third wave, which rose to a level in 38.2% of Fibonacci from the fall on February 2.
allowed higher rebound to 10080 and 10130 points. After forming the second subvolny starts building 3-st subvolny in the third wave.
Please remember that the Dow Jones has formed a 5 wave drop down in the 1-second pulse. Then, the Dow Jones corrected fall by 23.6% -38.2% of Fibonacci to 10310-10388 items within the second wave. We began the formation of third wave to 9220.41 points.
Today the level of resistance for the market participants will mark 10310 and 10170 points. Level of support will be 9835.09 points.
All fractal purchase is a mark of 10729.89 and 10314.61 points, but on sale at around 9786.11 and 9835.09 points.
On the hourly chart for the indicator MACD “bearish” situation, and the indicator Stochastic”s in purchasing.
On the daily chart of the Dow Jones index also remained divergent boundary formation in the area of 10250 points, but the point of confirming a fracture are at elevations 9430.31 and 9684 points, which is far from current levels. At the same time on the indicator MACD bearish situation. Indicator Stochastic”s are on sale.
C global wave perspective, the Dow Jones index continued /completed the formation of a global wave, which will correct all fall by 38.2% -50% of Fibonacci to 9440-10350 counts.
Please remember that Dow Jones index on June 11 formed the first stage of the rebound in the subvolny well. Later it was the development of wave b, which consisted of zigzag “abc”, where she was too short and has only reached the range between the levels of 23.6% -38.2% by Fibonacci.
January 19, 2010 to complete final run up to the objectives 9950-10118-10159-10351-10510-11245 items in the waves with a big wave of V. Also, is still a level at around 11,245 points, representing 61.8% on Fibonacci of the total incidence.
When building a global wave ended, then had to start building a global wave C up to 2012 to 2550-3500 points.
As an alternative and more complex version, which would delay the correction for years, then in this case the correction is allowed only jumping, but not below the 9283.77 points. If the Dow Jones index goes below this milestone, then finally come to the realization of the development of wave C.
From a technical point of view, on Friday the MICEX index opened below previous levels, after which the “bears” continued the formation of downward movement.
In the second half of the trading session, after the release of macroeconomic statistics, the bulls tried to seize the initiative and win back some losses. The volume of the trading session amounted to about 77 billion rubles.
On Friday, the MICEX index doubtful whether a milestone 1,386 points, as well as the fractal for sale 1363.03 points, which are responsible for the continuation of the formation of downward movement in the third wave. As a result, the MICEX index formed a new fractal on sale 1344.77 points, which in this case is the end of the first subvolny in the third wave. The subsequent rebound to 1,375 points is regarded as the second subvolna in the third wave, and allowed a second jump to 1387-1400 points, after which the decline resumed. It is also likely that the rebound in this wave1000will be small.
In addition, the daily chart the MICEX Index is trying to cling to the lower boundary of the diagonal triangle, which is the ultimate bottom-up formation. However, confirmation of exit-test of 1200 points.
From the wave point of view in terms of the base scenario, the MICEX index formed a 5-wavelength first burn down. February 3 MICEX index formed rebound in the second wave relative to the entire drop to 1427-1443 points, consisting of a double zigzag “wxy”.
We can go to the formation of the third wave with the objectives 1326-1250-1120 points, which is 100% -161.8% -261.8% of Fibonacci. First pulse was shortened, indicating that the 3-d or fifth wave will be stretched.
As optimists, they can still count on the fact that the MICEX index corrects the growth of 27 November 2009, but it “bears” can not be fixed below 1,326 points.
Today the level of resistance will mark 1,390 points, then 1445 points, then 1472 points. Level of support will be a mark in the 1326 and 1344 points.
In addition, the indicator Stochastic”s are on sale. Indicators MACD “bearish” situation.
On the daily chart indicator Stochastic”s are on sale. In addition, the daily chart the MICEX index moves in the diagonal triangle with the upper boundary in the vicinity of 1505 points, lower in the 1360 points. This formation is the ultimate bottom-up figure.
nearest day fractal for sale is located at around 1203.15 points, while daily fractal purchase is located at around 1491.32 points. Time to buy a fractal is a mark of 1491.32 and 1455.47 points, but on sale at the mark of 1344.77 points.
The long-wave point of view in early 2010, the MICEX index continued formation of a global wave of bounces in, which began in October and November 2008, when the index formed a double bottom in the vicinity of 500 points.
So in October 2008, we noted that the optimal range of big rebound was 1055-1230 points, representing 38.2% -50% of all Fibonacci from falling, which was performed in June 2009.
However, after reaching a maximum of 2 June and the beginning of the correction, the optimists kept mark 882 points. This line allows the formation of the fifth wave, and in an alternate complexity of the double zigzag correction to the triple “WXYXXZ” within the same waves B.
Since July 13, bulls have formed a U-turn, punctures line item 882, after which initially formed the rebound to fall, and then continued to develop a large rebound due to the euphoria in the markets and ways of increasing the money supply and budget deficits, the following procedure Krugman.
So, as stated, the MICEX index could form a triple zigzag “WXYXXZ” within the same waves B. Now is the formation of Z-wave with the objectives of 1436 and 1576 points.
Our alternative layout developed for a similar picture, with the exception of internal layout, which now is the formation of a wave with a big wave in under a simple zigzag “abc”.
In a wave of “bulls” have formed a wedge in the form of the first subvolny a corrective wave c, and then the second subvolnu, reaching 545 points, representing 76.4% of the length of the Fibonacci first subvolny.
June 2 MICEX index set a new high, and completed the formation of the third subvolny. July 13 ended with the formation of the fourth subvolnu, which reached 1070-963-882 points, representing 23.6% -38.2% -50% of the length of the Fibonacci third subvolny. The1000re is /was completed the formation of the fifth subvolny, which develops in a finite diagonal triangle, the upper limit is around 1485 points. Also, the objectives of a large corrective wave B can be a mark in 1472, 1536, 1623 points.
At the same time, given that the global wave of developing triple A, the wave can reach in and double peaks in the region of 1960-1970 points, but if they continue to increase the money supply in the economy, increasing budget deficit, which will by inflating the stock bubble, as it was with the dot-komami, real estate, oil.
Once complete the rebound in the wave, it will begin building a global wave of 450-500 points, and taking into account the panic 150-250 points, and the levels can be achieved by mid-2010 and the end of 2012 that will be accompanied by a drop of oil for 15-20 dollars, the Dow Jones to 2500-3500 items. Confirmation of the medium-term reversal - Break 1200 points.
In addition, the same RTS in semilogarithmic scale in January 2009, overcame a maximum of 1997, that at the global level, breaking the long-term trend, and suggests that the growth of correctional.
On Friday, those who did not want to close short positions, we are advised to keep them up to 1326 points. The purchase was not feasible because the ranges 1384-1387 and 1363-1366 items were taken in the first hour of a single candle.
Today, those who have no position, we recommend you to jump to reopen, preferably in the area of 1387-1390 points. Those who have short positions, then we hold up to 1326, then 1250-1260 points.
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The exam for the new government
participants in the financial press club gathered to discuss economic issues that should decide the new power …
information on how to achieve financial stability and revive the economy, discussed the executive director of the National Bank of Igor Shumylo, director of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting, National Academy of Sciences Valery Geyets, chairman of the Finance and Credit “Vladimir Hlyvniuk, director of macroeconomic forecasting department of the Ministry Finance, Vladimir Parnyuk, Advisor to the Minister of Economics Sergiy Yaremenko and head the main service of socio-economic development of the Presidential Secretariat Roman Zhukovsky.
findings of “Mirror of the Week” after the debate, were not very reassuring: banks are choking in the low-quality assets, budget, lose weight, and power and did not think to take steps to reform the economy and the resumption of lending. If such a “masterful disorder continue after the election, the economy itself will start the process of cleansing of non-professional management by default.
problems macroeconomic stability
Obviously, the most important matter of concern now, everyone - this is how to keep today”s shaky financial stability and the start of the stability of the process of economic recovery. The good and the reasons for this are: economic activity in Ukraine during the last three quarters restored. This is evidenced by the comparative assessment of GDP growth to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), made by the National Bank. Third consecutive quarter of growth is observed relative to previous quarters: 4,5-2,5-2,3% “, - says Igor Shumilo. But to restore the pre-crisis performance of the economy the country is still far: total score drop in GDP in 2009 by 2008 - minus 14.5%.
“Obviously, everybody remembers very pessimistic forecasts, and sounded on the exchange rate (called and 12 hryvnia to the dollar, and 15, and even higher), and on inflation. National Bank has been able both to stabilize the foreign exchange market and to achieve a steady reduction in inflation to 12.3%. While there is the so-called delayed inflation, which is the result of administrative against increase in regulated prices and tariffs, although such a change would make it more stable financial situation first and foremost “Naftogaz” - says the executive director of macroeconomic policy NBU . - In my view, there are conditions to this predictability, and are expected to keep inflation within the year and the future. ”
In his view, for its part, National Bank for making enough effort. “Monetary policy, while not hindering economic recovery in the second half of the year, was forced to more rigid due to considerable political and economic uncertainty, especially regarding the budget deficit and its sources of coverage as in 2009 and in 2010 - explains Igor Shumilo . - If you remember we said that our goal - to keep inflation between 13 and 14% by the end of next year, have no more than 10% and further to reach the level of 5-7% price growth per year. ”
is convinced that the representative of the National Bank, which is obviously shared by the majority of board members institutions, only a stable low inflation is the key to the emergence of long-term financial resources from banks, and even then with a certain lag. In other conditions - high inflation and high devaluation expectations - it is virtually impossible.
As regards the exchange rate, the Ukrainians, obviously, still have to continue to withd1000raw from its fixed values. “As you know, the NBU away from fixed exchange rate policy. We try to make the fluctuations were small. Exchange rate - is the one tool that should, on the one hand, stimulate exports, while not hindering the desired country of import, but on the other - to provide stability to possible external shocks “, - argues the executive director of the National Bank of modified vector in the policy institutions are still not very popular among the population and in the business environment.
However, he predicts that the major shocks of course already possible to not be afraid. “From my point of view, the economic justification for significant exchange rate fluctuations there. In 2009, the current account deficit amounted to 1.9 billion dollars, financial - 11,8 billion We believe that next year the situation is little better. On the current account - plus from 0 to $ 1 billion, the Financial - about 3-4 billion shortfall.
That is, the NBU, taking into account foreign exchange reserves have all possibilities to ensure stability in the foreign exchange market, “- reassures Mr. Shumilo. but warns that today macroeconomic stability depends largely on the budget deficit and the sources of its coverage of the 2010-th and the following year . is therefore important to take an early decision on these indicators and to adopt them in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The appearance of such a budget to the real sources of its content would ensure that expected and predictable, which so long awaited and business, and investors.
“I believe that those proposals that were at one time announced Acting Minister of Finance Igor Umansky the need for adjustments made by the Verkhovna Rada Budget toward decreasing revenues by 30 billion UAH. and spending - 40 billion are correct. The adoption of a realistic, credible budget will help stabilize the currency market and will help reduce inflation “, - stressed the representative of the National Bank.
According to roundtable participants, to some extent is not critical and the debt position of Ukraine. Authorities and commercial organizations in 2010, formally to return from nearly 30 to 37 billion dollars, but according to preliminary projections, including representatives of the Ministry of Finance and commercial banks, about 70% of the debt position will be restructured. “I think for this there are some rational expectations, since, given the global world, politics pouring cash crisis in the developed world, emitting convertible currencies, has brought results. Savings in these countries have grown and now have gone the flow of currency in other countries. We can therefore expect that the campaign for the assets will take place “- said Valery Geyets. He noted that free money will be spent on buying cheapened assets of commercial banks and cheapened assets in the economy, although this may lead to the formation of a financial pyramid real estate market.
According to the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NASU, at the exit from the crisis, about 70% of the portfolio will be owned by banks with foreign capital. And about 50% of our banking system will be controlled by foreign banks. “In such circumstances, the national regulators face a major challenge: how to influence the situation in the economy? How and on what scenario will be investing Ukrainian economy?” - Outlines the problem, Mr. Geyets. For nine years, economic growth modernization processes in the economy did not occur. How long we would be proud that the country came to foreign investment, they also come into the real economy. And domestic investors also do not engage in modernization. Neither the industry nor large-tonnage chemistry almost nothing qualitatively upgraded, and new production in these areas is not formed. Therefore, i1000f we follow the policy of the existing stable exchange rate, cumulative inflation dynamics will shape the conditions for the next double deficits.
In general indications of a possible recurrence of the crisis have already appeared. If the past year the economy was moving towards a surplus current account balance, now we are moving quite rapidly in the opposite direction. “If this could be explained only by some kind of record payments for gas, as last year - it would be so terrible. But he said the National Bank in the analytical evaluation of the balance of payments, at least 10%, even with the seasonal component increased imports of non-energy goods “, - said Roman Zhukovsky. So far the dynamics of the course will help support growth in imports, which became one of the main causes of shock and a sharp devaluation in late 2008. Moreover, in recent years been a gradual revaluation of the official rate. “I think that this can only reinforce the negative trend and to increase the flow of imported goods into the country” - warned the representative of the Presidential Secretariat.
At the same time, the dollarization of the economy is growing again. When the crisis began, the share of foreign currency deposits, for example, was 50%, but now the figure is closer to 65% already. This means that in the banking system, there were preconditions for shocks - in fact use the currency for lending to financial institutions now can not, and interest on such deposits are required to pay. “I”m not saying that this is necessarily a second wave of crisis or even to something, but over that the National Bank should consider. And if you do not, then consider that the question of stabilizing the exchange rate and the economy as a whole, moved away in the very distant perspective “, - emphasizes the Roman Zhukovsky.
Problems of filling the budget
Much now depends on the size of the budget deficit and the sources of its coverage for 2010. And all this time weighs heavily on all expectations. As noted by Valery Geyets expected in this year”s budget deficit - from the officially declared by 4% of GDP to 10.8%, according to various estimates - suggests that this is a very serious problem. Why in the 2009 budget year such a huge deficit, and why were formed such distortions? Because there was no coordinated work of all branches of government.
According to Vladimir Parnyuka, immediately, without waiting, who would become president, you need to prepare packages of reforms - decisions that would conceptually change the economic situation. And, above all, it concerns the tax field. “Valery said that the 2010 budget may be budgeted for 2005, that is, the budget is again eating, in which economic income base is weaker than is necessary for planned expenditures. I want to say more: it started when we introduced the country”s current model of taxation, - the director of the Department of Macroeconomic Forecasting, Ministry of Finance. - It is built on value-added tax, that is, the more value-added created the payer, the more he must pay into the budget. It is fundamentally wrong point of view, because it makes hiding value-added. Namely it we consume.
therefore need to raise the question of the efficiency of resource use - to tax the resources and the conceptual change approach to the taxation of profits. “By the way, next year we will not profit, because the losses incurred in 2009 will be mainly transferred 2010 - in fact we do not have a chance to develop, “- he added.
representative of the Finance Ministry said that to solve the problem of inadequate funding of the budget can only be substantially changing the fiscal system. First, it is a tax1000on spending. Secondly, higher rates of value added tax to 25%. Thirdly, the abolition of charges on the payroll as a base for generating income of pension and social funds. “If we do not, we will continue to develop material-intensive production that does not meet the latest international trends”, - said V. Parnyuk.
increase the VAT rate to 25%, as suggested by the representative of the Ministry of Finance, to compensate for the abolition of charges on labor of the population as the final consumer goods. Since the VAT payers must pay to the state tax liabilities for 30 days after their occurrence, the VAT increase will be for companies with something like a short-term credit facilities from the government on the domestic market.
about taxes on expenditure. “If we look at the structure of our economy, we see that 56% - this is intermediate consumption, the turnover, and the rest - it added value. If I have one hryvnia costs, sitting there 56% of what was burned, used, but no effect on the economy has not produced. It is necessary to change this structure. In developed economies, a completely different structure, intermediate consumption is lower, and it”s - our economy is a shadow. Therefore, we should make sure that no matter where they are going resources - whether for wages, whether the material production, whether for the purchase of raw materials, energy, - the taxpayer would pay in the budget “, - says Parnyuk. It also advises the Ministry of Finance and approach to the taxation of the expenses of which are in the shadow economy is much higher than the official income.
According to Roman Zhukovsky, such radical tax reform is unlikely to be implemented in the near future, so we need to look more moderate path, or at least implement the agreements already reached with the IMF, without whose support this year”s budget balance is almost impossible. “Today, virtually no VAT refunded, the debt already amounts to nearly 25 billion UAH. And once again surged tax overpayments: today they have reached nearly 13 billion UAH. Also on the financing of state budget expenditures involved resources of local budgets - about 8 billion UAH. That is formed by a huge array of debt that would threaten the fiscal stability even in the case if this year”s income was all right, “- emphasizes the Zhukovsky.
rectify the situation can only be an external stimulus - whether it be in receipt of money from outside, or in some external mechanism, which will be encouraged to undertake certain reforms and changes in economic policy. “Cooperation with the IMF, in my opinion, is such an external stimulus,” - said the representative of the president”s entourage.
but the cooperation with the IMF halted due to the fact, that Ukraine had assumed commitments are not fulfilled, or turned in another direction, thus creating a reputation as a partner, which can not normally agree. Most of the key reforms, which, if implemented, could improve the situation have not been conducted. And the reforms demanded by the IMF, based on an assessment of the situation with our own eyes. “These events were produced largely in their heads, but in ours. And if the co-operation will be resumed at the same conditions of our proposed reforms, I certainly think it is beneficial cooperation”, - says Roman Zhukovsky. Read More »