FOREX Forecast - Currency Trends Analysis and Forecast

United States

Futures on the SP 500 index falling by 0.6%.

Europe

European markets falling in anticipation of data from the U.S. labor market and the ECB rate decision. European FTSE Eurotop 100 index -0.99%, Britain's FTSE 100 -0.72%, German Xetra Dax -1.6%, French Lyxor Cac 40 -1.23%.

leaders in reducing the shares of mining companies against the backdrop of falling metal prices in London. Before the stock sector grew at an average of 4%, leading the growth in the indices after the encouraging data on the status of the Chinese economy. Lonmin -3.3%, BHP Billiton -2.8%, Anglo American -2.6%, Eurasian Natural -2.2%. The negative trend in the shares of steel giants. Shares of European automotive companies declining after downgrading recommendations on the sector by Credit Suisse. Volkswagen -3.5%, Daimler -3.1%.

Macroeconomic data again showed a rise in unemployment and the strengthening of deflationary fears. Unemployment in the euro area in May rose to a maximum of 10 years, the level of 9.5%. It was expected that unemployment will be at the level of 9.4%. The index of producer prices in May fell by 0.2% compared with April, and at 5.8% annualized. This is the maximum reduction per year for the past 27 years, since the beginning of statistics. Predict that in calculating the monthly rate will not change, while the annual decline to 5.6%.

Oil

Oil prices falling for three consecutive sessions. Investors expect the negative data from the U.S. labor market, the continued decline in the number of jobs in the largest world economy, signaling a deepening recessionary processes. Spot Brent $ 66.75, WTI $ 69.31. Futures falling by 2%.

Russia

The Russian market reacts to an external negative decline. Almost immediately after opening the index went into a zone of 2% reduction, in which the remains. At 15:10 Moscow time the MICEX index falling to 2.1%, 0.43% on RTS. Trading volume on the MICEX stock market at low levels and comprise 23 billion rubles.

The decline in oil prices is reflected in the quotations of Russian oil and gas companies. Shares of Gazprom fell to 3.2%, Novatek -3.8% -1.9% Rosneft, Lukoil -1.5%. Shares of banks also outsiders. -3% Sberbank, VTB -3.3%.

better market the steel sector. Growth in the sector caused by rising shares of the recommendations, as well as the decision of the Chinese manufacturers agree to a reduction of 33-40% of the price of iron ore on long-term contracts, which increases the competitiveness of Russian companies. NLMK 6.9%, 2.7% Severstal, MMK 2%, Mechel 1.6%.

Outlook

Tomorrow, the U.S. output in connection with Independence Day, so the main activity will be in the end of today's auction. At 15:45 ECB announce a decision on the rate in the United States will be 16:30 the data block from the labor market. Also at 16:30 the head of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet will comment on the future policy of the central bank.

Dynamics to close to a large extent will depend on the reaction of currency and commodity markets in the ECB rate decision and comments of Chapter Bank Jean-Claude Trichet on future policy departments. Great importance and will have data from the United States, which expects an increase in unemployment and further job cuts.

From the technical point of view, the market is struggling for the level of 1000 points, which have not yet been able to pass either one or the other way. As if these projections are much worse, not excluding the rollback to the level of support of 930 points on the MICEX index. Speculators, I recommend to stay away from the market, the medium-term investors to build positions in securities at lower levels of 930-950 points, I recommend a long-term investors to hold the position.

Read the rest of this entry »

While

illegal and even legal advertising checker attractive proposals for quick and easy, and because suspicious cash, credit, banks have been slow to change the advertising of deposits at all, until recently all of the usual loans. Instead - a strange non-bank advertising credits under unprecedented fast now 10% per annum. To get from one to one hundred thousand hryvnia without outpost - only a passport.

Who and where gives these loans on colorful poster - not a word. Only a proposal to send a SMS to number four, that you immediately contact the operator. And at the bottom of the poster - tiny letters - advice offered by the company from the regions. Cost of SMS - 15 hryvnia. That is, the small fee here can only offer advice on where to get a loan.

But today

consumer loans without trick, and the more so by 10% per annum - as they say, and the afternoon with fire not syschesh. No, in principle, bank consumer lending in Ukraine still exists, but not in the forms and amounts, that up to the crisis. Banks are now basically only offer services to restructure the loans already. And those that are issued and new, as you know, asked to not only pass with the identification code as well and help with the work, together with information about the position, duration of work and income for the past six months, even native instruments. To make the course, and insurance purchased goods.

And then for a long time will weigh all possible risks, on which it depends, will give credit or not.

At present we can state that the situation in the credit market is still unpredictable, - says Day of Member of the Universal Bank Igor Doroshenko. - Now the banks are aimed at preserving its own liquidity and credit in the current environment is a risk for them. And while we can see some positive trends, such as strengthening the national currency, the full credit still too early to say.

To restore the normal functioning of the banking sector will take time, and contribute to the development of positive trends, such as the strengthening of the economy and policy, with the compulsory involvement of the authorities. Therefore, according to the banker, is already evident that in the next six months, major changes will not happen .

Of course, many people wished to await the resumption of more or less profitable lending and quickly. But the prospect of wait a crisis, and again for the loan may or may not materialize at all … First, banks have not yet been sorted out earlier, and willing to take the money at high interest rates are unlikely to find enough. And secondly, according to bankers, even the slightest, but the hope may be to kill the initiative to resolve the legal market.

Recently Verkhovna Rada has banned giving individuals credit for non-monetary goals, adoptedthe Law On amending some legislative acts of Ukraine in order to overcome the negative effects of the financial crisis. A people's deputy of Ukraine Valery Pisarenko presented the journalists his bill on the introduction of bankruptcy proceedings of individuals. He suggested consideration of the public initiative to, in effect, select the gray business opportunity bankrupt individuals. At present, according to the deputy, even an official advertisement in the center of the capital checker slogans for 6 thousand dollars do not need to pay a loan. Read the rest of this entry »

Neutrality

After yesterday's closing of the situation on the external site has worsened slightly since oil prices began to fall after the publication of data on oil and oil products. Today, this could have the greatest pressure on the Russian stock market. Oil again yesterday went below the $ 70: Brent futures traded on the mark about $ 68.7 and WTI futures for the brand is about $ 69,2. News about the next stock reduction would not affect the dynamics of the markets, although stocks and so very large and slight oscillations of the situation does not change. Our market has stubbornly ignored the dynamics of commodity futures, but this is a temporary phenomenon, which is also compounded by a close to the critical condition of the real sector of the domestic economy.

In the U.S. market trading ended on the growth of leading indexes. The focus of investors, yesterday was an American fast-food restaurant chain Yum! Brands, owns the trademarks of Taco Bell and KFC. Quotations shares yesterday rose 5% after analysts from Goldman Sachs upgraded its recommendation on the securities from the neutral to buy. An additional reason for optimism bidders and provided food manufacturer General Mills, improved outlook for profits in the current year, which led to the growth of quotations on 3,9%. Favored data news affected the value of the shares of competing companies such as Kraft Foods, the paper added that in the price of 5%. Influenced the course of bidding and macroeconomic news. American Institute for Supply Management released a report that the index of business activity in the industrial United States in June 2009 year compared with a revised value in May grew by 2 points and amounted to 44.8 point in the expectations of the value of the index in the number of 45 points. Yesterday, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the amount of construction costs in the United States in May fell by 0.9% compared with a revised April figure was $ 964 billion The decline was more significant than analysts had expected, It is expected that the construction cost in June was reduced to 0.5%.

Today the Russian market after the opening of the negative during the day expect multidirectional movement, since the ocean came into the market a positive, but oil prices still stand at the level of $ 70. While you can not ignore the fact that the market was marked at 1000 points on the MICEX, and many liquid chips can technically only grow.

Read the rest of this entry »

In Wednesday trading on the Russian market opened in the dynamic growth of quotations, the index of the MICEX in the first hour of the session back to a point 1 000 points. As in the previous days close to the noon activity markedly decreased. The greater part of the day held a sluggish market outset, but by the evening of buyers increased, and against the backdrop of the opening of the American indexes in the green area of the MICEX index was able to again rise above 1 000 points, to close it at 1 012.48 points (4.21%). RTS Index has shown a much more modest momentum 977.94 points (-0.92%).

real engine of the Russian market yesterday were shares of Gazprom, adding 6.54%. Index Oil and Gas MICEX OG added 4.06%, becoming the best indicators of the industry the Russian market.

The absolute leader not only in the electricity sector (MICEX PWR 3,43%), but also in the market as a whole became RusGidro shares, at very high volumes of adding more than 14% against the backdrop of the launch ADR program in London, plans to place on the soon as possible ADRs in the United States, as well as the announced management forecast of net profit of the company that can make this year's 28.3 billion rubles.

The greater part of the day the paper the banking sector (MICEX FNL 3,39%) traded blankly, but at night they had grown up on a background of markedly obscherynochnogo burst of optimism and publishing reports that the bank (obychka 3.55%, 6.02 prefy %) is authorized to participate in the sale of greenhouse gas emissions. In our view, this means that a bank account in the sale of Russia's own quota will be implemented. However, the operation of this mechanism in practice - the issue is not solved yet. However, this has allowed the chips to become the main bank short-term target of purchases.

In the metallurgical sector, there are growing quotations GMK Norilsk Nickel (5.6%) due to the rapid upsurge of prices for nickel. Also better than the market shares of Polyus Gold (5.98%) and CIM (7.12%). At the same time, the growth of quotations of other steel plants did not exceed 2%. Index MICEX M M 2,29%.

In the telecommunications sector is also dominated by positive sentiments, quotes, MRK grown in 4.5%, leadingsector - prefy Rostelekom (5.67%). Index MICEX TLC 2,0%.

Expectations for today: yesterday on world markets was painted in positive colors, but now busy news background, including the ECB meeting and the data on unemployment in the United States could support a local burst of optimism, and deploy the situation at 180 degrees. On the Russian market pressures will likely sharp decline in oil prices, which yesterday fell in the area of $ 69 per barrel.

Read the rest of this entry »